Risk MGMT總結(jié)課件

1、Common definition of risk:1. The notion of an indeterminate outcome is implicit in all definitions of risk: The outcome must be in question. For risk to exist, there must be at least two possible outcomes. If we know for certain that a loss will occur, there is no risk.2. At least one of the possibl

2、e outcomes is undesirable. This may be a loss in the generally accepted sense in which something the individual possesses is lost, or it may be a gain smaller than the gain that was possible.Our Definition of Risk:Risk is a condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse deviation from a des

3、ired outcome that is expected or hoped for. (Probability: 0-1)The most widely held meaning of uncertainty refers to a state of mind characterized by doubt, based on a lack of knowledge about what will or will not happen in the future.The expected value of a loss in a given situation is the probabili

4、ty of that loss multiplied by the amount of the potential loss. If the amount at risk is $10 and the probability of loss is 0.10, the expected value of the loss is $1. If the amount at risk is $100 and the probability is 0.01, the expected value is also $1. (Degree of risk)A peril is a cause of a lo

5、ss. We speak of the peril of fire, windstorm, hail, or theft. Each of these is the cause of the loss that occurs. A hazard, on the other hand, is a condition that may create or increase the chance of a loss arising from a given peril. It is possible for something to be both a peril and a hazard. For

6、 instance, sickness is a peril causing economic loss, but it is also a hazard that increases the chance of loss from the peril of premature death.Three categories of Hazards:1. Physical hazard consists of those physical properties that increase the chance of loss from the various perils. Examples of

7、 physical hazards that increase the possibility of loss from the peril of fire are the type of construction, the location of the property, and the occupancy of the building.2. Moral hazard refers to the increase in the probability of loss that results from dishonest tendencies in the character of th

8、e insured person. More simply, it is the dishonest tendencies on the part of an insured that may induce that person to at- tempt to defraud the insurance company. A dis- honest person, in the hope of collecting from the insurance company, may intentionally cause a loss or may exaggerate the amount o

9、f a loss in an attempt to collect more than the amount to which he or she is entitled. Fraud is a significant problem for insurance companies and increases the cost of insurance.3. Morale hazard, not to be confused with moral hazard, acts to increase losses where insurance exists, not necessarily be

10、cause of dishonesty but because of a different attitude toward losses that will be paid by insurance. When people have purchased insurance, they may have a more careless attitude toward preventing losses or may have a different attitude toward the cost of restoring damage. Morale hazard is also refl

11、ected in the attitude of persons who are not insured. The tendency of physicians to provide more expensive levels of care when costs are covered by insurance is a part of the morale hazard. Similarly, the inclination of juries to make larger awards when the loss is covered by insurance, the so-calle

12、d deep-pocket syndrome(綜合癥), is another example of morale hazard. In short, morale hazard acts to increase the frequency and severity of losses when such losses are covered by insurance. 4. Legal hazard refers to the increase in the frequency and severity of loss that arises from legal doctrines ena

13、cted by legislatures and created by the courts. Jurisdictions in which legal doctrines favor a plaintiff represent a hazard to persons or organizations that are sued at tort. Although legal hazard is greatest in the field of legal liability, it also exists in the case of property exposures. In juris

14、dictions where building codes require that new buildings conform to statutory requirements, the destruction of a building that does not meet the requirements may force an owner to incur additional costs in reconstruction, thereby increasing the exposure to loss.Dynamic risks are those resulting from

15、 changes in the economy. Changes in the price level, consumer tastes, income and output, and technology may cause financial loss to members of the economy. These dynamic risks normally benefit society over the long run since they are the result of adjust- ments to misallocation of resources. Althoug

16、h these dynamic risks may affect a large number of individuals, they are generally considered less predictable than static risks since the former do not occur with any precise degree of regularity.Static risks （predictable）involve those losses that would occur even if there were no changes in the ec

17、onomy. If we could hold consumer tastes, output and income, and the level of technology constant, some individuals would still suffer financial loss. These losses arise from causes other than the changes in the economy, such as the perils of nature and the dishonesty of other individuals. Unlike dyn

18、amic risks, static risks are not a source of gain to society. Static losses involve the destruction of the asset or a change in its possession as a result of dishonesty or human failure.The distiction between fundamental and particular risks is based on the difference in the origin and conse- quence

19、s of the losses. Fundamental risks involve losses that are impersonal in origin and conse- quence. They are group risks caused, for the most part, by economic, social, and political phenom- ena although they may result from physical occur- rences. They affect large segments or even all of the popula

20、tion. Particular risks involve losses that arise out of individual events and are felt by individuals rather than by the entire group. They may be static or dynamic. Unemployment, war, inflation, earth- quakes, and floods are all fundamental risks. The burning of a house and the robbery of a bank ar

21、e particular risks.Speculative(推測(cè)的) risk describes a situation in which there is a possibility of loss but also a possibility of gain.(Gambling)The term pure risk, in contrast, is used to designate those situations that involve only the chance of loss or no loss. One of the best examples of pure ris

22、k is the possibility of loss surrounding the ownership of property. The person who buys an automobile, for example, immediately faces the possibility that something may happen to damage or destroy the automobile. The possible outcomes are loss or no loss.Pure risk classification:1. Personal risks. T

23、hese consist of the possibility of loss of income or assets as a result of the loss of the ability to earn income. In general, earn- ing power is subject to four perils: (a) premature death, (b) dependent old age, (c) sickness or disability, and (d) unemployment.2. Property risks. Anyone who owns pr

24、operty faces property risks because such possessions can be destroyed or stolen. Property risks embrace two distinct types of loss: direct loss and indirect or “consequential” loss. Direct loss is the simplest to understand: If a house is destroyed by fire, the owner loses the value of the house. Th

25、is is a direct loss. However, in addition to losing the value of the building, the property owner no longer has a place to live. During the time required to rebuild the house, it is likely that the owner will incur additional expenses living somewhere else. This loss of use of the destroyed asset is

26、 an indirect, or consequential, loss.3. Liability risks. The basic peril in the liability risk is the unintentional injury of other persons or damage to their property through negligence or carelessness; however, liability may result from intentional injuries or damage. Under our legal system, the l

27、aws provide that one who has injured another, or damaged anothers property through negligence or otherwise, can be held responsi- ble for the harm caused. Liability risks, therefore, involve the possibility of loss of present assets or future income as a result of damages assessed or legal liability

28、 arising out of either intentio- nal or unintentional torts, or invasion of the rights of others.4. Risks arising from failure of others. When another person agrees to perform a service for you, he or she undertakes an obligation that you hope will be met. When the persons failure to meet this oblig

29、ation would result in your financial loss, risk exists. Examples of risks in this category would include failure of a contractor to complete a construction project as scheduled, or failure of debtors to make payments as expected. With the development of the Internet, the rapid evolution of e-commerc

30、e, and the increased trend toward outsourcing by big businesses, a variety of new risks relating to the failure of others have emerged.Systemic risk refers to a risk that can affect an entire system, rather than just one entity. In economics, the term is often used where a shock, such as the failure

31、 of a single entity, could cause cascading effects and severely disrupt the financial system. (2008 economic crisis)Burden of risk: 損失，為損失而損失的其他，不利于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和資本積累，mental的傷害。Cyber (網(wǎng)絡(luò))risk：比如個(gè)人信息的泄露。Growth in capital investment-INCREASING SEVERITY OF LOSSESChapter 2Market risk is the risk arising from adv

32、erse movements in market prices. Market risk includes changes in the price of commodities (such as those required for production) and changes in equity prices, interest rates, and foreign exchange rates.Credit risk is the risk arising from the potential that a borrower will fail to pay a debt.Liquid

33、ity risk is the risk that the business will have insufficient liquid assets to meet obligations that come due.Operational risk has no universally accepted defi- nition. It is most commonly defined as the risk of loss from inadequate or failed internal processes, people, or systems or from external e

34、vents.5 The operational risk category is intended to include risks such as fraud, breaches in internal controls, technology risks (e.g., programming errors or fail- ures in IT systems), and external events such as earthquakes, floods, and war. It encompasses the pure risks identified in Chapter 1 (p

35、ersonal risks, property risks, liability risks, and risk arising from failure of others).6 However, operational risk is broader, also encompassing failed internal controls leading to credit, market, or other losses.Reputational risk: the potential that negative publicity will cause a loss.Strategic

36、risk: the risk of failing to successfully implement the firms strategies.Compliance risk: the risk of failing to comply with laws and regulations.Financial risk: market risk, credit risk, and liquidity risk.Risk management is a scientific approach to dealing with risks by anticipating possible losse

37、s and designing and implementing procedures that minimize the occurrence of loss or the financial impact of the losses that do occur.Risk management tools：Risk control consists of those techniques that are designed to minimize, at the least possible costs, those risks to which the organization is ex

38、posed. Risk control methods include risk avoidance and the various approaches at reducing risk through loss prevention and control efforts.-Risk Avoidance Technically, avoidance takes place when decisions are made that prevent a risk from even coming into existence.-Risk reduction consists of all te

39、chniques that are designed to reduce the likelihood of loss or the potential severity of those losses that do occur.-Loss prevention: Efforts aimed at preventing losses from occurring. (禁止吸煙)-Loss control: Efforts aimed at minimizing the severity of loss if it should occur. (防護(hù)設(shè)備,sprinkler, segregat

40、ion or dispersion of assets and salvage efforts.) Engineering approach, the principal emphasis is on the removal of hazards that may cause accidents, emphasizes systems analysis and mechanical design, aimed at protecting people from care- less acts that are viewed as perhaps inevitable. (駕駛座氣囊) Huma

41、n behavior approach, the elimination of unsafe acts is stressed, is based on the view that since most accidents result from human failure, the most effective approach to loss prevention is to change peoples behavior. (嚴(yán)禁酒駕的廣告)Risk financing concentrates on arranging the availability of funds to meet

42、 losses arising from the risks that remain after the application of risk control techniques and includes the tools of retention and transfer.-Risk retention. Intentionalvoluntary unintentionalinvoluntary In a funded retention program, the firm earmarks assets and holds them in some liquid or semiliquid form against the possible losses that are retained. Retention may be accompanied by specific budgetary allocations to meet uninsured losses and may involve the accumulation of a fund to meet deviations from expected losses.-Risk transfer. Eg. Purchase of insura