投行估值教程 DCF Analysis_Completed

1、Investment BankingValuation, Leveraged Buyouts,and Mergers & AcquisitionsDCF Analysis - CompletedJOSHUA ROSENBAUMJOSHUA PEARLValueCo CorporationDiscounted Cash Flow Analysis($ in millions, fiscal year ending December 31)Operating Scenario BaseOperating Scenario 1Mid-Year ConventionYHistorical Pe

2、riodCAGRProjection PeriodCAGR200520062007(05 - 07)200820092010201120122013(08 - 13)Sales$780.0$850.0$925.08.9%$1,000.0$1,080.0$1,144.8$1,190.6$1,226.3$1,263.14.8% % growthNA9.0%8.8%8.1%8.0%6.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%COGS471.9512.1555.0600.0648.0686.9714.4735.8757.9Gross Profit$308.1$337.9$370.09.6%$400.0$432.0

3、$457.9$476.2$490.5$505.24.8% % margin39.5%39.8%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%40.0%SG&A198.9214.6231.3250.0270.0286.2297.6306.6315.8EBITDA$109.2$123.3$138.812.7%$150.0$162.0$171.7$178.6$183.9$189.54.8% % margin14.0%14.5%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%15.0%Depreciation & Amortization15.617.018.

4、520.021.622.923.824.525.3EBIT$93.6$106.3$120.313.3%$130.0$140.4$148.8$154.8$159.4$164.24.8% % margin12.0%12.5%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%13.0%Taxes35.640.445.749.453.456.658.860.662.4EBIAT$58.0$65.9$74.613.3%$80.6$87.0$92.3$96.0$98.8$101.84.8%Plus: Depreciation & Amortization15.617.018.520.02

5、1.622.923.824.525.3Less: Capital Expenditures(15.0)(18.0)(18.5)(20.0)(21.6)(22.9)(23.8)(24.5)(25.3)Less: Increase in Net Working Capital(8.0)(6.5)(4.6)(3.6)(3.7)Unlevered Free Cash Flow$79.0$85.8$91.4$95.3$98.1 WACC11.0% Discount Period3.54.5 Discount Factor0.950.860.770.690.63 Present Valu

6、e of Free Cash Flow$75.0$73.4$70.4$66.1$61.4Enterprise ValueImplied Equity Value and Share PriceImplied Perpetuity Growth RateCumulative Present Value of FCF$346.3Enterprise Value$1,133.3Terminal Year Free Cash Flow (2013E)$98.1Less: Total Debt(300.0)WACC11.0%Terminal ValueLess: Preferred Securities

7、-Terminal Value$1,326.3Terminal Year EBITDA (2013E)$189.5Less: Noncontrolling Interest-Exit Multiple7.0 xPlus: Cash and Cash Equivalents25.0Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate3.0% Terminal Value$1,326.3 Discount Factor0.59 Implied Equity Value$858.3Implied EV/EBITDA Present Value of Terminal Value$787.1E

8、nterprise Value$1,133.3 % of Enterprise Value69.4% Implied Share Price50.0LTM 9/30/2008 EBITDA146.7 Enterprise Value$1,133.3 Implied Share Price$17.17Implied EV/EBITDA7.7xEnterprise ValueImplied Perpetuity Growth RateExit MultipleExit Multiple1,133.36.0 x6.5x7.0 x7.5x8.0 x0.06.0 x6.5x7.0 x7.5x8.0 xW

9、ACC10.0%1,0601,1191,1771,2361,295WACC10.0%0.9%1.5%2.1%2.6%3.0%10.5%1,0401,0981,1551,2131,27010.5%1.3%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%11.0%1,0211,077$1,1331,1901,24611.0%1.7%2.4%3.0%3.5%3.9%11.5%1,0021,0571,1121,1671,22211.5%2.2%2.8%3.4%3.9%4.4%12.0%9841,0381,0911,1451,19912.0%2.6%3.3%3.9%4.4%4.8%Enterprise ValueImp

10、lied Equity ValueExit MultipleExit Multiple1,133.36.0 x6.5x7.0 x7.5x8.0 x858.36.0 x6.5x7.0 x7.5x8.0 xWACC10.0%1,0601,1191,1771,2361,295WACC10.0%7858449029611,02010.5%1,0401,0981,1551,2131,27010.5%76582388093899511.0%1,0211,077$1,1331,1901,24611.0%746802$85891597111.5%1,0021,0571,1121,1671,22211.5%72

11、778283789294712.0%9841,0381,0911,1451,19912.0%709763816870924Implied Share PricePV of Terminal Value as % of Enterprise ValueExit MultipleExit Multiple17.26.0 x6.5x7.0 x7.5x8.0 x0.76.0 x6.5x7.0 x7.5x8.0 xWACC10.0%15.7416.8818.0219.1620.30WACC10.0%66.6%68.4%69.9%71.4%72.7%10.5%15.3616.4717.5918.7019.

12、8210.5%66.3%68.1%69.7%71.1%72.4%11.0%14.9816.08$17.1718.2619.3511.0%66.1%67.9%69.4%70.9%72.2%11.5%14.6215.6916.7617.8218.8911.5%65.8%67.6%69.2%70.6%72.0%12.0%14.2615.3116.3517.4018.4412.0%65.6%67.3%68.9%70.4%71.7%Implied Perpetuity Growth RateImplied Enterprise Value / LTM EBITDAExit MultipleExit Mu

13、ltiple0.06.0 x6.5x7.0 x7.5x8.0 x7.76.0 x6.5x7.0 x7.5x8.0 xWACC10.0%0.9%1.5%2.1%2.6%3.0%WACC10.0%7.2x7.6x8.0 x8.4x8.8x10.5%1.3%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%10.5%7.1x7.5x7.9x8.3x8.7x11.0%1.7%2.4%3.0%3.5%3.9%11.0%7.0 x7.3x7.7x8.1x8.5x11.5%2.2%2.8%3.4%3.9%4.4%11.5%6.8x7.2x7.6x8.0 x8.3x12.0%2.6%3.3%3.9%4.4%4.8%12.0%6

14、.7x7.1x7.4x7.8x8.2xValueCo CorporationWorking Capital Projections($ in millions)Historical PeriodProjection Period200520062007200820092010201120122013Sales$780.0$850.0$925.0$1,000.0$1,080.0$1,144.8$1,190.6$1,226.3$1,263.1Cost of Goods Sold471.9512.1555.0600.0648.0686.9714.4735.8757.9Current AssetsAc

15、counts Receivable123.2141.1152.6165.0178.2188.9196.4202.3208.4Inventories94.6104.0115.6125.0135.0143.1148.8153.3157.9Prepaid Expenses and Other10.010.811.411.912.312.6 Total Current Assets$224.9$253.6$277.5$300.0$324.0$343.4$357.2$367.9$378.9Current LiabilitiesAccounts Payable65.266.069.475

16、.081.085.989.392.094.7Accrued Liabilities69.983.292.5100.0108.0114.5119.1122.6126.3Other Current Liabilities15.620.423.125.027.028.629.830.731.6 Total Current Liabilities$150.7$169.6$185.0$200.0$216.0$229.0$238.1$245.3$252.6 Net Working Capital$74.2$84.0$92.5$100.0$108.0$114.5$119.1$122.6$126.3 % sa

17、les9.5%9.9%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% (Increase) / Decrease in NWC($9.8)($8.5)($7.5)($8.0)($6.5)($4.6)($3.6)($3.7)AssumptionsDays Sales Outstanding57.760.660.260.260.260.260.260.260.2Days Inventory Held73.274.176.076.076.076.076.076.076.0Prepaids and Other CA (% of sales)0.9%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0

18、%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%Days Payable Outstanding50.447.045.645.645.645.645.645.645.6Accrued Liabilities (% of sales)9.0%9.8%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Other Current Liabilities (% of sales)2.0%2.4%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%ValueCo CorporationWeighted Average Cost of Capital Analysis($ in millions

19、)WACC CalculationComparable Companies Unlevered BetaCapital StructurePredictedMarket Market Debt/MarginalUnleveredDebt-to-Total Capitalization30.0%CompanyLevered Beta(4)Value of DebtValue of EquityEquityTax RateBetaEquity-to-Total Capitalization70.0%Adler Industries1.11$575.0$2,600.022.1%38.0%0.98La

20、nzarone International1.08515.01,750.029.4%38.0%0.91Lajoux Global1.35715.01,050.068.1%38.0%0.95Cost of DebtMomper Corp.1.25550.01,000.055.0%38.0%0.93Cost of Debt6.0%McMenamin & Co.1.19250.0630.039.7%38.0%0.96Tax Rate38.0% After-tax Cost of Debt3.7%Mean 1.2042.9%0.95Median1.1939.7%0.95Cost of Equi

21、tyValueCo Relevered BetaRisk-free Rate(1)4.0%MeanTargetTargetMarket Risk Premium(2)7.1%UnleveredDebt/MarginalReleveredLevered Beta1.20BetaEquityTax RateBetaSize Premium(3)1.65%Relevered Beta0.9542.9%38.0%1.20 Cost of Equity14.1%WACC Sensitivity AnalysisPre-tax Cost of Debt WACC11.0%Debt-to-Total Cap

22、italization0.15.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%10.0%11.9%11.9%11.9%11.9%12.0%20.0%11.3%11.4%11.5%11.5%11.6%30.0%10.8%10.9%11.0%11.1%11.2%40.0%10.3%10.4%10.6%10.7%10.8%50.0%9.8%10.0%10.1%10.3%10.4%(1) Interpolated yield on 20-year U.S. Treasury(2) Obtained from Ibbotson SBBI Valuation Yearbook(3) Low-Cap Decile s

23、ize premium based on market capitalization, per Ibbotson(4) Sourced from BarraAssumptions Page 1 - Income Statement and Cash Flow StatementProjection PeriodYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 102009201020112012201320142015201620172018Income Statement AssumptionsSales (% growth

24、)8.0%6.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0% Base18.0%6.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0% Management 210.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0% Upside312.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0% Downside 145.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0% Downside 252.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Cost

25、of Goods Sold (% sales)60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0% Base160.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0% Management 260.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0%60.0% Upside359.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%59.0% Downside 1461.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.0%61.

26、0%61.0%61.0% Downside 2562.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%62.0%SG&A (% sales)25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0% Base125.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0% Management 225.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0% Upside324.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%24.0%2

27、4.0%24.0%24.0%24.0% Downside 1426.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0%25.0% Downside 2527.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%26.0%Depreciation & Amortization (% sales)2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Base12.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Management 22.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2

28、.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Upside32.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Downside 142.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Downside 252.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Cash Flow Statement AssumptionsCapital Expenditures (% of sales)2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Base12.0%2.0%2.0%2.0

29、%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Management 22.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Upside32.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Downside 142.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% Downside 252.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%Assumptions Page 2 - Balance SheetProjection PeriodYear 1Year 2Year 3Y

30、ear 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8Year 9Year 102009201020112012201320142015201620172018Current AssetsDays Sales Outstanding (DSO)60.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.2 Base160.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.2 Management 260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.260.2 Upside365.065.065.065.065.065.065.06

31、5.065.065.0 Downside 1459.059.059.059.059.059.059.059.059.059.0 Downside 2557.757.757.757.757.757.757.757.757.757.7Days Inventory Held (DIH)76.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.0 Base176.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.0 Management 276.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.076.0 Upside376.076.076.07

32、6.076.076.076.076.076.076.0 Downside 1480.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.080.0 Downside 2582.082.082.082.082.082.082.082.082.082.0Prepaid and Other Current Assets (% of sales)1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0% Base11.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0% Management 21.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1

33、.0%1.0%1.0%1.0% Upside31.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0% Downside 141.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0% Downside 251.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%Current LiabilitiesDays Payable Outstanding (DPO)45.645.645.645.645.645.645.645.645.645.6 Base145.645.645.645.645.645.645.645.645.645

34、.6 Management 245.645.645.645.645.645.645.645.645.645.6 Upside347.047.047.047.047.047.047.047.047.047.0 Downside 1442.542.542.542.542.542.542.542.542.542.5 Downside 2540.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.0Accrued Liabilities (% of sales)10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% Base110.0%

35、10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% Management 210.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% Upside310.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% Downside 1410.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% Downside 2510.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Other Curr

36、ent Liabilities (% of sales)2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% Base12.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% Management 22.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% Upside32.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% Downside 142.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% Downside 252.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2

37、.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%Copyright 2009 by Joshua Rosenbaum and Joshua Pearl. All rights reserved.Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.Published simultaneously in Canada.No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted inany form or by an

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