曼昆經(jīng)濟學(xué)原理35

1、13 FINAL THOUGHTS 最后最后的思考的思考Copyright 2004 South-WesternFive Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy 宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的五個爭論問題宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的五個爭論問題Copyright 2004 South-WesternFive Debates over Macroeconomic Policy1.Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?2.Should monetary policy be made by rule r

2、ather than by discretion?3.Should the central bank aim for zero inflation?4.Should the government balance its budget?5.Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving?Copyright 2004 South-Western宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的五個爭論問題1.貨幣與財政決策者應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟嗎？2.貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則還是相機抉擇?3.中央銀行應(yīng)該把零通貨膨脹作為目標(biāo)嗎?4.財政決策者應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù)嗎？5.應(yīng)該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改

3、稅法嗎?Copyright 2004 South-WesternShould monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy? 貨幣與財政決策者應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟嗎？Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy The economy is inherently unstable, and left on its own will fluctuate. Policy can manage aggregat

4、e demand in order to offset this inherent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.Copyright 2004 South-Western贊成：決策者應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟 經(jīng)濟是本質(zhì)上不穩(wěn)定的，如果放任不管，經(jīng)濟就傾向于發(fā)生波動。 政策可以管理總需求，目的是抵消這種內(nèi)在的不穩(wěn)定，降低經(jīng)濟波動的嚴(yán)重性。Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy There i

5、s no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle. Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and, thereby, production and employment.Copyright 2004 South-Western贊成：決策者應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟 沒有理由使社會受到經(jīng)濟周期高漲與低落的折磨。 貨幣與財政政策可以穩(wěn)定總需求，從而穩(wěn)定生產(chǎn)和就業(yè)。Copyright 2004 South-Weste

6、rnCon: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work. Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand

7、 until about six months after the change is made.Copyright 2004 South-Western反對：決策者不應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟 在需要采取行動到貨幣政策能發(fā)揮作用之間，貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟的作用要有一個相當(dāng)長而且不可預(yù)見的時滯。 許多研究表明，在作出貨幣政策變動的6個月之內(nèi)，這種變動對總需求的影響很小。Copyright 2004 South-WesternCon: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy Fiscal policy works with a lag becau

8、se of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes. It can take years to propose, pass, and implement a major change in fiscal policy.Copyright 2004 South-Western反對：決策者不應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟 財政政策的作用有時滯，是因為政府改變支出與稅收是一個漫長的政治過程。 提出、通過和實施一項重要的財政政策變動需要好幾年的時間。Copyright 2004 South-WesternCon: P

9、olicymakers should not try to stabilize the economy All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations. It might be desirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations, but this is not a realistic goal.Copyright 2004 S

10、outh-Western反對：決策者不應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟 決策者經(jīng)常是無意中擴大了而不是縮小了經(jīng)濟波動的程度。 如果決策者可以消除所有經(jīng)濟波動，這樣做是合意的。Copyright 2004 South-WesternShould monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion? 貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則還是相機抉擇?Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: Monetary policy should be made by rule Discretionary monetary policy can suffe

11、r from incompetence and abuse of power. To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians, discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendarthe political business cycle.Copyright 2004 South-Western贊成：貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則制定 相機抉擇貨幣政策會受無能和濫用權(quán)利之苦。 在某種程度上，中

12、央銀行領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人與政治家結(jié)盟，相機抉擇政策就會引起大選日期的經(jīng)濟波動政治性商業(yè)周期。Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: Monetary policy should be made by rule There may be a discrepancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually docalled time inconsistency of policy. Because policymakers are so often time inconsistent, peo

13、ple are skeptical when central bankers announce their intentions to reduce the rate of inflation.Copyright 2004 South-Western贊成：貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則制定 也會存在決策者說他們要做什么和實際上做了什么之間的不一致性，這種不一致性被稱為政策的時間不一致性。 由于決策者經(jīng)常有這種時間不一致性，當(dāng)中央銀行領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人宣布他們打算降低通貨膨脹時，人們往往表示懷疑。Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: Monetary policy should be mad

14、e by rule贊成：貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則制定 Committing the Fed to a moderate and steady growth of the money supply would limit incompetence, abuse of power, and time inconsistency. 讓美聯(lián)儲實行穩(wěn)健的貨幣增長政策會限制無能、濫用權(quán)利和時間不一致性。Copyright 2004 South-WesternCon: Monetary policy should not be made by rule An important advantage of disc

15、retionary monetary policy is its flexibility. Inflexible policies will limit the ability of policymakers to respond to changing economic circumstances.Copyright 2004 South-Western反對：貨幣政策不應(yīng)該根據(jù)規(guī)則制定 相機抉擇貨幣政策的一個重要優(yōu)點是靈活性。 不靈活的政策將限制決策者對變化著的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境作出反應(yīng)的能力。Copyright 2004 South-WesternCon: Monetary policy shoul

16、d not be made by rule The alleged problems with discretion and abuse of power are largely hypothetical. Also, the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear.Copyright 2004 South-Western反對：貨幣政策不應(yīng)該根據(jù)規(guī)則制定 所謂的時間不一致性和濫用權(quán)利的問題主要是想象出來的。 而且，政治性商業(yè)周期的重要性也很不明顯。Copyright 2004 South-WesternShoul

17、d the central bank aim for zero inflation? 中央銀行應(yīng)該把零通貨膨脹作為目標(biāo)嗎？Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation Inflation confers no benefit to society, but it imposes several real costs. Shoeleather costs Menu costs Increased variability of relative prices Unintended ch

18、anges in tax liabilities Confusion and inconvenience Arbitrary redistribution of wealthCopyright 2004 South-Western贊成：中央銀行應(yīng)該以零通貨膨脹作為目標(biāo) 通貨膨脹并沒有給社會帶來什么好處，但引起了一些實際成本。 皮鞋成本 菜單成本 相對價格變動性提高 稅收負(fù)擔(dān)不合意的變動 混亂與不方便 財富任意再分配Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation 降低通貨膨脹是一項暫時

19、有成本而長期有好處的政策。 一旦反通貨膨脹帶來的衰退過去，零通貨膨脹的好處就會持續(xù)到來。Copyright 2004 South-WesternCon: The central bank should not aim for zero inflation Zero inflation is probably unattainable, and to get there involves output, unemployment, and social costs that are too high. Policymakers can reduce many of the costs of in

20、flation without actually reducing inflation.Copyright 2004 South-Western反對：中央銀行不應(yīng)該把零通貨膨脹作為目標(biāo) 零通貨膨脹可能實現(xiàn)不了，而且為了實現(xiàn)零通貨膨脹要付出的產(chǎn)量、失業(yè)和社會成本也太高。 決策者可以實際上并不降低通貨膨脹而減少許多通貨膨脹的成本。Copyright 2004 South-WesternShould fiscal policymakers reduce the government debt? 財政決策者應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù)嗎？Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: The g

21、overnment should balance its budget Budget deficits impose an unjustifiable burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes. When the debts and accumulated interest come due, future taxpayers will face a difficult choice: They can pay higher taxes, enjoy less governmen

22、t spending, or both.Copyright 2004 South-Western贊成：決策者應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù) 預(yù)算赤字通過增加子孫后代的稅收并減少他們的收入而把不合理的負(fù)擔(dān)加在他們身上。 當(dāng)這些債務(wù)和累積的利息到期時，未來的納稅人就將面臨一個困難的選擇： 他們要納更高的稅，享有較少的政府支出，或者二者都有。Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: The government should balance its budget By shifting the cost of current government benefits to future ge

23、nerations, there is a bias against future taxpayers. Deficits reduce national saving, leading to a smaller stock of capital, which reduces productivity and growth.Copyright 2004 South-Western贊成：決策者應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù) 把現(xiàn)任政府所獲利益的成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給子孫后代，這是對未來納稅人的歧視。 赤字減少了國民儲蓄，引起一定時期內(nèi)資本存量減少，從而降低了生產(chǎn)率和增長。Copyright 2004 South-West

24、ernCon: The government should not balance its budget The problem with the deficit is often exaggerated. The transfer of debt to the future may be justified because some government purchases produce benefits well into the future.Copyright 2004 South-Western反對：決策者不應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù) 預(yù)算赤字的問題往往被夸大了。 將債務(wù)傳給子孫后代也許是正

25、當(dāng)?shù)?，因為一些政府購買會給子孫后代帶來很好的利益。Copyright 2004 South-WesternCon: The government should not balance its budget反對：決策者不應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù) The government debt can continue to rise because population growth and technological progress increase the nations ability to pay the interest on the debt. 政府債務(wù)可以繼續(xù)增加，因為人口增長和技術(shù)進步增強了國

26、家償付債務(wù)利息的能力。Copyright 2004 South-WesternShould the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving? 應(yīng)該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法嗎？Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage saving A nations saving rate is a key determinant of its long-run economic prosperity. A nations productive capability

27、is determined largely by how much it saves and invests for the future. When the saving rate is higher, more resources are available for investment in new plant and equipment.Copyright 2004 South-Western贊成：應(yīng)該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法 一國的儲蓄率是其長期經(jīng)濟繁榮的關(guān)鍵決定因素。 一個國家的生產(chǎn)能力主要取決于它為將來儲蓄和投資了多少。 當(dāng)儲蓄率較高時，更多的資源用于新工廠和設(shè)備的投資。Copyr

28、ight 2004 South-WesternPro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage saving The U.S. tax system discourages saving in many ways, such as by heavily taxing the income from capital and by reducing benefits for those who have accumulated wealth. The consequences of high capital income tax policies are

29、reduced saving, reduced capital accumulation, lower labor productivity, and reduced economic growth.Copyright 2004 South-Western贊成：應(yīng)該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法 美國稅制以許多方式抑制儲蓄，例如，對資本收入征收重稅和減少那些積累了財富的人的利益。 高資本收入稅政策的結(jié)果是降低了儲蓄、資本積累、勞動生產(chǎn)率和經(jīng)濟增長。Copyright 2004 South-WesternPro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savi

30、ng An alternative to current tax policies advocated by many economists is a . With a consumption tax, a household pays taxes based on what it spends not on what it earns. Income that is saved is exempt from taxation until the saving is later withdrawn and spent on consumption goods.Copyright 2004 So

31、uth-Western贊成：應(yīng)該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法 許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家支持用消費稅代替目前的稅制。 如果是征收消費稅，家庭只是根據(jù)他們的支出納稅，而不是根據(jù)他們的收入納稅。 儲蓄起來的收入是不用納稅的，直到以后提取出來用于支付消費品。Copyright 2004 South-WesternCon: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage saving Many of the changes in tax laws to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy. High-incom

32、e households save a higher fraction of their income than low-income households. Any tax change that favors people who save will also tend to favor people with high incomes.Copyright 2004 South-Western反對：不應(yīng)該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法 許多刺激儲蓄的稅法變動主要有利于富人。 高收入家庭中儲蓄的比例高于低收入家庭。 任何有利于進行儲蓄的人的稅收變動也傾向于有利于高收入的人。Copyright 200

33、4 South-WesternCon: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage saving Reducing the tax burden on the wealthy would lead to a less egalitarian society. This would also force the government to raise the tax burden on the poor. Raising public saving by eliminating the governments budget deficit would

34、 provide a more direct and equitable way to increase national saving.Copyright 2004 South-Western反對：不應(yīng)該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法 降低富人的稅收負(fù)擔(dān)會引起一個更不平等的社會。 這將迫使政府增加窮人的稅收負(fù)擔(dān)。 通過消除政府預(yù)算赤字提高公共儲蓄，也許提供了一種直更接、更平等地增加國民儲蓄的方法。Copyright 2004 South-WesternSummary Advocates of active monetary and fiscal policy view the economy as

35、inherently unstable and believe policy can be used to offset this inherent instability. Critics of active policy emphasize that policy affects the economy with a lag and our ability to forecast future economic conditions is poor, both of which can lead to policy being destabilizing.Copyright 2004 So

36、uth-Western小結(jié) 積極貨幣與財政政策的支持者認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟本質(zhì)上是不穩(wěn)定的，并相信政策可以用來抵消這種內(nèi)在的不穩(wěn)定性。 積極貨幣與財政政策的批評者強調(diào)，政策對經(jīng)濟的影響有時滯，而且我們預(yù)期未來經(jīng)濟狀況的能力是很差的，這兩個原因可能導(dǎo)致政策反而使經(jīng)濟不穩(wěn)定。Copyright 2004 South-WesternSummary Advocates of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy can suffer from incompetence, abuse of power, and time inconsis

37、tency. Critics of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy is more flexible in responding to economic circumstances.Copyright 2004 South-Western小結(jié) 貨幣政策規(guī)則的支持者認(rèn)為，相機抉擇的政策會受無能、濫用權(quán)利和時間不一致性之苦。 貨幣政策規(guī)則的批評者認(rèn)為，相機抉擇的政策在對變化著的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境作出反應(yīng)時較為靈活。Copyright 2004 South-WesternSummary Advocates of a zero-inflation target emphasize that inflation has many costs and few if any b