國(guó)際貿(mào)易專業(yè)外文翻譯----金融自由化與貨幣政策東亞合作

1、Financial Liberalization and Monetary PolicyCooperation in East AsiaAuthor：Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano and Augustine H. H. TanNationality: SingaporeJournal time: May 2007,P2-3,5-7,21It is well recognized that strong domestic financial markets can play a key role in economic gro

2、wth and development. Sound financial institutions and well-functioning markets facilitate the mobilization and efficient allocation of savings, thereby improving productivity and contributing to growth (Levine 2004). This is particularly important for East Asia in view of the high saving rates of th

3、e regional countries. The limited development of local financial markets and their small fragmented nature have also led to a large part of Asian savings being intermediated outside the region. Surplus savings have mostly been channeled to the US and the funds return to Asia through US direct and po

4、rtfolio investment. Fostering domestic financial markets and regional financial integration is important because it not only facilitates theintermediation of Asian savings within the region, but also attracts foreign investment in instruments denominated in the domestic currency. Such alternative so

5、urces of funding would reduce East Asias reliance on foreign currency borrowing and concomitantly, the risk exposure of the region to maturity and currency mismatches.However, as the countries in East Asia deregulate their financial sectors and develop their capital markets, a key issue that confron

6、ts policymakers is the greater complexity of risks that is injected into the financial system. In particular, capital account liberalization heightens the speed and magnitude of international spillovers and may potentially increase the vulnerability of individual countries to external financial shoc

7、ks. Many studies have found empirical evidence that financial development and in particular, financial openness can increase a countrys vulnerability to crisis (see inter alia Rajan 2005 and Kaminsky and Reinhart 2003). In fact, considerable blame for the past financial cum currency crises has been

8、placed on improper sequencing of liberalization.Over the past quarter century, the combination of a fixed exchange rate with an open capital account, has proven lethal in small open economies, particularly in emerging markets with weak financial systems and regulatory institutions. The fault seems t

9、o point to policies that opened the capital account prematurely while keeping the exchange rate rigid. Such a combination has often led to massive capital inflows thathave overwhelmed nascent financial systems, prompting consumption and asset boom-bust cycles. When we further combine a fixed exchang

10、e rate and premature opening of the capital account with a weakly structured and regulated domestic financial sector, currency crisis quickly turn into financial crisis and perhaps to full-blown economic and political crisis. Such a scenario plagued Latin America throughout the 1980s and 1990s. It t

11、ook the crisis of 1997-98 to demonstrate that Asia was also not immune to these same policy inconsistencies.Sufficiently liberalized and developed domestic financial sectors are necessary to absorb and allocate capital inflows to their most efficient uses. Flexible exchange rates allow necessary int

12、ernational relative price adjustments and help allow asset markets to clear (Obstfeld 2004). Without exchange rate flexibility, economic adjustments will take place in terms of the price level, output or employment, or asset market volatility (Frankel and Rose 1995). Unless domestic financial sector

13、s are sufficiently developed and exchange rates sufficiently flexible, capital account liberalization is premature and effectively neutralizes the stability benefits of fixed exchange rates. That this does so at a time when the domestic financial infrastructure can ill-afford massive surges and reve

14、rsals in liquidity and financing, has prompted a number of economists to remind policymakers and professional economists alike of the dangers of the open-economy trilemma.Fully-open capital accountsrequire both domestic financial liberalization and exchange rate flexibility. This paper advocates the

15、 optimally cascading of financial liberalization that is consistent across three dimensions: extent of domestic financial liberalization; the degree of exchange rate flexibility; and the scope of capital account liberalization.2.1 Optimal SequencingUnder optimal sequencing, liberalization occurs seq

16、uentially. Let Ai A1 , An represent the iof n different stages of domestic financialsector liberalization. Let Bi B1 , Bn represent the iof n differentdegrees of exchange rate flexibility. Here, one can think of B1 as a peggedbilateral exchange rate and Bn as a fully floating exchange rate. Finally,

17、let Ci C1 , Cn represent the iof n different stages of capitalaccount liberalization. A strict interpretation of optimal sequencing suggests the following conceptual framework:That is to say, first, a domestic financial sector liberalization program must be developed and implemented, i.e. all n phas

18、es of A are completed. Once domestic financial sector liberalization is fully completed, only then should the degree of exchange rate flexibility be increased. Since it generally recommended that smaller degrees of flexibility should precede full floats, the exchange rate flexibility dimension of fi

19、nancial liberalization is complete when all n degrees of Bth th thare permitted. Finally, once the domestic financial sector is liberalized (i.e., A has gone from A1 to An) and the exchange rate is fully flexible (i.e.,B has gone from B1 to Bn) then and only then, should steps be taken toliberalize

20、the capital account, C. As with domestic financial sector liberalization, capital account liberalization has its baby steps (something closer to C1) like FDI or long-term investments for infrastructuralpurposes, its more advanced like the full liberalization of short-term portfolio flows to its most

21、 fully liberalized and controversial phases, the allowance of short-term speculative flows, such as those from hedge funds (something closer to Cn).In practice, sequencing is subject to considerable leakage. As markets grow and domestic financial sectors develop, there will be some degree of capital

22、 flow across borders even with the best of capital controls. But at the same time, the costs of capital controls enable disparities in productivity and competitiveness between global and insular markets to persist. Global markets are fiercely competitive and offer the truest test of productivity. It

23、 is highly unlikely that domestic financial sectors might develop the same quality and character of global financial markets on their own.2.2 Optimal CascadingIn contrast to optimal sequencing, the conceptual framework of optimal cascading requires decisions regarding the extent of domesticfinancial

24、 liberalization, the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the extent of capital account liberalization are taken simultaneously. Let the ith phase of a liberalization program be given by (Ai , Bi , Ci), then thedesign of an optimal cascading program can be represented by the following rubric:Duri

25、ng nascent stages of domestic financial development, rigid exchange rates and heavy capital controls are essential and will minimize the odds of boom-bust cycles and financial crisis. However, as the domestic financial sector matures, countries should make attempts to increase exchange rate flexibil

26、ity and allow for longer term and stable capital inflows that serve to increase productivity, technology transfer and competitiveness.In latter stages, domestic financial sector liberalization will need both increased exchange rate flexibility, to help with risk management and price stability, as we

27、ll as later-stage capital account liberalization, such as capital outflows for the purpose of portfolio diversification and the establishment of foreign banking branches and non-bank financial institutions. The internationalization of financial services which opens the domestic sector to foreign fin

28、ancial institutions frequently results in capacity building. Importantly, the commercial presence of foreign service providers normally increases the pressure to strengthensupervisory and regulatory framework.Once such a liberalization program is fully mature, the degree of exchange rate flexibility

29、 can be increased further. Mature domestic financial systems will be able to utilize exchange rate volatility to help adjust to shocks, smooth consumption, and help maintain price stability. At the same time, it is unrealistic to expect that domestic financial liberalization can ever fully mature wi

30、thout exposure to global financial markets and capital flows, particularly in countries without a long history of private financial banking and established access to offshore banking. In addition, deeper capital account liberalization will require increased exchange rate flexibility and liberalized

31、domestic financial markets.Chinas liberalization program represents the classic case of optimal cascading. From 1994 until late 2005, the yuan was pegged to the US Dollar at a fixed rate of 8.28RMB to US$1. Citing underdeveloped domestic financial markets and legal institutions, the Chinese central

32、bank argued unambiguously that its banking system was not ready to handle a flexible yuan. While the yuan remained fixed to the US dollar, China did not completely restrict capital flows. China has been the recipient of considerable FDI capital flows and other types of capital flows that have leaked

33、 in through the considerable presence of foreign branch operations and outsourcing operations. Most recently, the Chinese central bank has allowed the yuan to float within a tight band while at thesame time domestic financial sector reforms and a measured relaxation of capital controls continues (Ei

34、chengreen 2005). These simultaneous and holistic policy choices characterize the measured and gradual face of optimal cascading. While it is too early to tell if the specific types of capital account liberalization enacted by China are wise given the stage of domestic sector development and limited

35、degree of exchange rate flexibility, it is clear that China had adopted the prudent and realistic strategy of optimal cascading.8We identify the risks associated with the liberalization attempts of Chinabeing an economically large and influential countryas representing the greatest challenge to the

36、region. Even with successful financial liberalization in China, the massive capital flows that will be generated can destabilize the region. It is thus important for countries in East Asia, including China, to optimally cascade financial liberalization by simultaneously determining the extent of dom

37、estic financial liberalization, the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the scope of capital account liberalization consistent with underlying domestic institutional infrastructures. In addition, financial stability can be promoted via regional policy coordination. We are of the view that this w

38、ill be most effective when approached as a series of nested sequencing problems that would take East Asia through increasingly intensiveinformal modes of monetary policy cooperation: starting with weak forms of cooperation that emphasize non-monetary cooperation and sovereign institutional reforms t

39、o more intensive modes of informal cooperation that can accelerate the development of deeper regionalism and synchronization, such as the adoption of common policy objectives, and finally to the most intensive mode of informal cooperation, the adoption of common policy regimes.金融自由化與貨幣政策東亞合作作者：周惠關(guān)等國(guó)

40、籍：新加坡出處及類別：新加坡管理學(xué)院經(jīng)濟(jì)和統(tǒng)計(jì)工作文件系列, Http:/ 發(fā)表時(shí)間及頁碼：2007年5月 P2-3,5-7,21人們都清楚地認(rèn)識(shí)到，強(qiáng)有力的國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)能夠在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和發(fā)展中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。健全的金融機(jī)構(gòu)和運(yùn)作良好的市場(chǎng)有利于儲(chǔ)蓄的調(diào)動(dòng)和有效分配，從而提高生產(chǎn)率和促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)（利文2004）。這一點(diǎn)對(duì)東亞高儲(chǔ)蓄率的區(qū)域國(guó)家尤其重要。有限發(fā)展當(dāng)?shù)亟鹑谑袌?chǎng)和小型分散的性質(zhì)也導(dǎo)致了很大一部分儲(chǔ)蓄流到亞洲以外的地區(qū)。盈余的儲(chǔ)蓄大多被輸送到美國(guó)，美國(guó)通過直接投資和證券投資又將資金返回亞洲。促進(jìn)國(guó)內(nèi)金融市場(chǎng)和區(qū)域金融一體化是重要的，因?yàn)樗粌H有利于亞洲區(qū)域內(nèi)的儲(chǔ)蓄調(diào)節(jié)，

41、而且還吸引了外國(guó)以本國(guó)貨幣的名義投資。這種替代資金來源將減少東亞的依賴外幣借款，與此同時(shí)，減少該區(qū)域?qū)Τ墒欤ń?jīng)濟(jì)體）和貨幣錯(cuò)配的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露。然而，由于東亞國(guó)家的金融部門放松管制和發(fā)展其資本市場(chǎng)，決策者面臨的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問題更加復(fù)雜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在注入金融體系。特別是，資本帳戶自由化加劇了國(guó)際外溢速度和規(guī)模，且有可能增加個(gè)別國(guó)家面對(duì)外部金融沖擊的脆弱性。許多學(xué)者發(fā)現(xiàn)的實(shí)證表明，金融發(fā)展，特別是金融開放可以提高一個(gè)國(guó)家在危機(jī)中的脆弱性（見2005 拉詹和卡明斯、賴因哈特2003）。事實(shí)上，過去金融暨?貨幣危機(jī)相當(dāng)程度上可以歸咎于次序不當(dāng)?shù)淖杂苫?。在過去四分之一世紀(jì)中，固定匯率下開放資本帳戶在小型開放經(jīng)濟(jì)體中已

42、被證明是致命的，尤其是金融體系和監(jiān)管機(jī)制弱的新興市場(chǎng)。錯(cuò)誤似乎指向過早地開放資本帳戶的同時(shí)保持僵硬匯率的政策。這種組合往往導(dǎo)致大量資本流入，使新興的金融體系不堪重負(fù)，促使消費(fèi)和資產(chǎn)繁榮與蕭條交替循環(huán)。當(dāng)我們進(jìn)一步結(jié)合了固定匯率、過早開放資本帳戶和國(guó)內(nèi)金融部門監(jiān)管的脆弱，貨幣危機(jī)很快演變成金融危機(jī)，更或許是成熟的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治危機(jī)。這樣一個(gè)情景困擾拉美整個(gè)80年代和90年代。1997-98年的危機(jī)表明亞洲也不能幸免于這種相同的不協(xié)調(diào)政策。充分開放和發(fā)展的國(guó)內(nèi)金融部門對(duì)吸收和分配資本流入以發(fā)揮最有效的用途是必要的。靈活的匯率允許必要的國(guó)際相對(duì)價(jià)格調(diào)整，并幫助清理資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)（奧布斯特菲爾德2004） 。如

43、果匯率不靈活性，經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整將體現(xiàn)在價(jià)格水平，產(chǎn)出或就業(yè)，或資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)上（弗蘭克爾和羅斯1995）。除非國(guó)內(nèi)金融部門充分發(fā)展，且匯率有足夠的靈活性，否則，資本帳戶自由化則為時(shí)過早，將有效地中和固定匯率帶來的穩(wěn)定好處。當(dāng)國(guó)內(nèi)的金融基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不能夠承受巨大的沖擊，不能夠承受流動(dòng)性與融資的逆轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)就會(huì)發(fā)生，促使一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家提醒決策者和其他專業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下三難的危險(xiǎn)。完全的資本帳戶要求國(guó)內(nèi)金融自由化和匯率的靈活性。本文主張金融自由化的最佳階式滲透，是一致的三個(gè)方面：一定程度的國(guó)內(nèi)金融自由化；一定的匯率彈性程度；一定范圍的資本帳戶自由化。2.1最優(yōu)序列根據(jù)最優(yōu)排序，自由化有序進(jìn)行。Ai A1 , An

44、代表第i個(gè)不同階段的國(guó)內(nèi)金融部門的自由化。讓Bi B1 , Bn代表第i個(gè)不同程度的匯率彈性。在這里，可以認(rèn)為B1是雙邊匯率掛鉤和BN是一個(gè)完全的浮動(dòng)匯率。最后，用Ci C1 , Cn代表第i個(gè)不同階段的資本帳戶自由化。一個(gè)嚴(yán)格解釋的最優(yōu)序列表明了以下概念框架：這就是說，第一，國(guó)內(nèi)金融部門自由化的方案必須制定和實(shí)施，即所有N個(gè)階段完成。一旦國(guó)內(nèi)金融部門自由化全面完成，然后匯率彈性程度才可以有所增加。因?yàn)橐话憬ㄗh較小程度的靈活性優(yōu)于完全浮動(dòng)，當(dāng)所有n個(gè)程度的B都被允許后，金融自由化的匯率靈活性才算完成。最后，當(dāng)且僅當(dāng)國(guó)內(nèi)金融部門全部自由化（即已經(jīng)從A1到An）和匯率完全實(shí)現(xiàn)靈活（即B已經(jīng)從B1到Bn）時(shí)，才應(yīng)該逐步采取放寬資本帳戶C。隨著國(guó)內(nèi)金融部門的自由化，資本帳戶自由化有其嬰兒般的步伐（接近于C1 ）如外商直接投資或長(zhǎng)期投資為了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施用途