全球鐵路市場分析(波士頓咨詢公司)

1、 Worldwide Rail Market Study status quo and outlook 2016A study commissioned by UNIFE,the Association of the European Rail Industryand conducted by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants A. Executive SummaryThis second world market survey of the rail supply industry shows that the industry has grown tre

2、mendously over the past two years. New railway projects around the world plus upgrading/expanding existing railway lines caused orders in virtually all market segments to surge.This robust growth will continue for the foreseeable future. Overall trends favour the industry: politicians, business lead

3、ers and the public are realising the importance of rail as a sustainable means of transport. Rail transport is an attractive solution to environmental issues such as carbon dioxide emissions and global warming. Whats more, the rapid growth of fuel prices around the world will further promote the int

4、ermodal shift towards rail transport. This will trigger additional investments in infrastructure, rolling stock, rail control and services. Over the past few decades, rail suppliers have taken the right action in response to the changing market environment. They have developed state-of-the-art produ

5、cts and services that meet the mobility needs of growing economies, both in passenger and cargo transport. Innovations make rail transport more attractive in all areas and affect the whole value chain of rail transport from ticket sales to rolling stock and infrastructure maintenance.Figure 1: Avera

6、ge annual market volume and growth1, overall rail market EUR bn The strong growth will continueBased on an analysis conducted by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants on behalf of the Association of the European Rail Industry (UNIFE, the total annual world market for the rail supply industry in 2007 is

7、 estimated at more than EUR 120 billion, with an expected annual growth of between 2.0 % and 2.5 % over the next nine years (see gure 1. In 2016, the total world market will have reached a volume of EUR 154 billion of which about EUR 111 billion will be accessible.The growth in 2006 and 2007 has bee

8、n very high. The world market volume increased by approximately EUR 19 billion, i. e. with a nominal growth rate of 9 % and a real growth rate of 6 % p.a.Figure 2: Development of average annual market volume in 2005-2007 EUR bn2and to develop a nine-year forecast for the industry. To achieve this go

9、al, we examined several thousand market segments worldwide. The scope of the study was expanded to include 50 focus countries that account for more than 95% of the total installed base and traf c volume. The market volume for the other countries was estimated via extrapolation. The appendix provides

10、 detailed information on the methodology of the study.Rail suppliers are companies that manufacture and service all the systems, sub-systems and components used in modern urban, conventional and high speed systems, including rail infrastructure, rolling stock and rail signal and telecom-munication s

11、ystems. While a handful of multinational suppliers dominate the headlines, the sector is shaped equally by the thousands of small and medium-sized suppliers and sub-suppliers.Steady growth around the world, highest rates in Asia/Paci cEurope, NAFTA and the Asia/Paci c region are the key markets toda

12、y (see gure 3. Because of expected dynamic growth, Asia/Paci c will surpass NAFTA and become the second largest accessible market for the industry by 2016. The markets in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS and Eastern Europe will also grow above average in the coming years. Western Europe,

13、although growing at around 2.0 % annually over the next nine years, will remain the single most important rail market. The growth in NAFTA will be below the world average but steady.There are also substantial opportunities in Africa, the Middle East and Rest of America. These regions display high gr

14、owth rates but will remain comparably small in terms of absolute market volumes. Nevertheless, sizeable metro projects for instance in Argentina, India and the Emirates show the potential of these markets. Several countries that have hardly bene ted from rail transport so far are expected to develop

15、 markets with signi cant rail transport projects, also in freight business. Saudi Arabia is an excellent example with major rail infrastructure projects (Mineral Railway, Saudi Landbridge, Mecca Medina high speed line. European rail suppliers responded quickly in the past to seize business when new

16、markets opened. To remain competitive, they need to continue this proactive approach whilst recognising the evolving needs of these markets.The various trends driving the growth and impacting the industry have been analysed from a strategic point of view in this study for the rst time. As there is p

17、lenty of material available on regulatory developments, the study focuses on global trends (e.g. resource scarcity, climate change, demographic development and changes in operator (i.e. customer demand.In terms of market segments for the total market, we expect rolling stock to grow at about 2.0 % t

18、o 2.5 % p.a. Here, very high speed and high speed trains, intercity multiple units and mainline electric locomotives are expected to grow above average. Rail control and infrastructure will display the highest growth among the market segments at around 3.0 %. Services is a market segment that will s

19、ee healthy growth at between 2.0 % to 2.5 % each year worldwide.A unique source of information on the rail market In this unique study, we provide information about the structure and segmentation of the rail supply industry. We also look at geographic distribution among segments, current size of the total market and accessible market segments by region. Finally, we deliver a growth forecast for the next nine years. We hope this study will provide new insi