兩次重大疫情對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的比較與對策分析.docx

1、BCD$:EFG)IJKLMN兩次重大疫情對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的比較與對策分析%。"：?!4?!?距研？m：18BJY21S);?f-g/O1?0)0?；?*?+$?)研N$：©?g/B$31/5,2020-S-12o：2020$%&'()*+,一./O1234567Y9:;<=>.%B7CDEF%zJKL,NOPQR<QTH-,U./OFTW,J=Z3t2003/Oa0cZ3kFgHiJ,V%TafnPo/OpqrTuijpq1;li,vTawxy$Z3Hhij|n3q?a+,U./OG?Y3cF9?=B?C?,%a0cZ3Fi/OFij,%g

2、hijvT%hij67?CC?,?a?C?2020$F+,U./O?0cZ3A5,U./O'Z3?CC?$O12S:F124$5/T8:A$oI2096-1S91(2020)04-0074-112020#$&'牛+/-g/O1使3%o51667896,A<=>?$NoCDNq+QFGfioJZOlLMNfiA<1sQRS,fiTUVWXY%UVW:_0Qb,dY2$14O,Y%UV5iJOlklmnoV4901.Sqjt,)00QUViJ2S2.9qr,fiOlk1stF$wxy。目JZO1tQ5|$3FR+么g?,S$11OA<Z?1S?,)0

3、%o?,)0%O5?M$?Z?F2?©JfO1tQg?o?,Z-g/O1If木7?JLI.,/A.V_<.JJ?+O1N?Fo$T,?y-g/Ol?0<|?+?,?7s?V4+V)X?：%0?O1?0<I?+?,;看？O1?<I?ZC?;Co7%o,0-O12345$,$z-<!=O.$N.ABCD-FG0fiF$JKI_cfNgPQRScf,UV:$,ZC%¥、：F。JbfiABSSe-F-tR,ijRQR5m,、Kneo做cjr"s!LJX/4./v3"!4N,"F做cqIF"匕rs?匚U?,%o干S

4、GrU.七OA?.？.？于？?4?于？.于1?1C,!4?k?KI_?5<s%?N?$K?<s%r-s?EK?z?.?.?©.Q?C0$?,?一%?_、?0fiKI_$kQR?%?N_?%?Q，？b._、1?"0西？。？上_、"?%>。$_j干？一?_、?,?N_、n;?彩?，干？、？0?于11?了七0?！?quot;1？彩？?”?。?0L%o?b>!?%_?.%?#<?0$!,e%&A0_-O5$FG0雖3QRl_?*;O+.盲一4”，于，一!2>0_;O_/bO#$12e",3Y$,_5;O67?S8$r-

5、$k=;Fo,$=0_；O?b-5-O>?;beo,UV<l)jBC$A?DEZF"'G%o$1、J?K?銀?MKn3BC$A?DE,?Nk*F.PNo/?CNRST0_二OUZcfVTW?XG%o$I0。>?匚;O%0八二;O_QR7$-aOb-b7$de$-Fg,-b-tz.h.Nojk-F?,Knl_0_二Ocl：$o?”N(Lj,Wi$?o?p-F$;No.j,Wr"s-t$V?;O$/wx68$%qO0$N*Aa$0_二O,$o?EZai-Fh,$?o?p-F$Wr-swx68$;l_h$?Aa,*O：K?Xih?nh%0<3)$?

6、34-02于。?于；O?3Y7?,1_于7"0_-O9fc-O7?t>?R?Q?j%oQN"”?n。$0,?匕?。？、J?1J$z?ABU?_?%?1?Xr$匕©?,Nod,?、？?”?一%?、？J，彩？?fi干kg,?、?.?<,?.k?".?捫?U?為？5?K?，-F?B?？，r%,如？。七.？d.N?。$?.?$3,?、】？5?、：kF?%?N,?_J?J?于？$二？*_、I_0_二0$T-Fog?%、？K”?Jcf?0,?_Fe。-cfg,OQR#$?>.$5$u%o-$dV?0_;O,Ch#$cfNgPQR?,5$?,fiF?

7、cf$kQR,A|?b%o?$F)345678!200S祥M%&()fi+3一./Ofi,N4-678f%&:$<=>?ABfiADE$G,HIAJ$?LMNORS,7V$YZL®、abce$gjki.0n;pqjrjkiSoliv,wxyz;?|%(|©?,?$?0n;pJ$,©?,?|?w,$?4?,$?%&I(A?/%f200S一？M%&,?(Z?,?%?-?.？7%?sABfi%?,$?%&10?A?(LM?$限？，0?A?$*E0QI?局y4LMEN.y?,2020-2-S.Dfi?0%0QI?fjff

8、?t?M./?,2020-2-21.B0QI?修？?N.Z?,2020-S-4.D(|?.6w?p?EN,0?(®2020-S-4.B(I?.¥2,2020-2-28.AnalysisinCovid-19*sEffectonEconomicDevelopmentandCountermeasuresinChinaLiuChenghuiAbstract：ChinahasstrictlyshutdownitscitiesandcommunitiesforsuddenCovid-19outbreah,andclosespublictransportbetweenintergover

9、nmentalregion,suchasinter-provincialandinterurbantransport.Especially,HubeiprovinceandNuhancitybecomehard-hit-areas,andtemporarystopallunnecessarypublictransportandbusinessactivities.3arshasinfluencedonChina'sshort-termeconomicgrowth,hard-hit-areassuchasGuangdongprovincethatisseriouslyaffectedby

10、3ars,butithaslittleaffectedchina'smacroeconomicgrowth.InordertoeliminateCovid-19,Chinatahesstrictlysegregatedmeasuresthroughoutthecountry,itwillaffectChina'seconomicgrowthmorethan3arsanditsshort-termeffectgraduallyemerges,itslong-termeffectisnotclearatpresent.Tahingpositivefiscalpolicies,per

11、fectfiscalsystem,helpmiddleandsmall-sizedenterprises,improveinstitutionsandmechanismsforpublicgovernance,promptpolicyimplementation,Covid-19doesnotchangeChina'seconomicfundamentalsandlong-termtrendforthebetter.Keywords:Covid-19;3ars;Economy;FiscalPolicy#事：)/.&lh)2345$709<7W?$D:Q(D)W,2020&

12、#169;,$%&，C0*+,-_/O$2-CMF40B,2020)©,&71490*+,二-<>_/O?,2020),7B$CT1fF”&A0*+.ol_/$K%L1VIM"CjDP,2020)®oRffi8cT4UV0*+,WXOJYZ匚¥,Zl0+a-b>$de$gh<ZiR,2020)0%omJ?Fgo&*3rs-t,3OC0*uxzwx/xyn4|I您-?Q傅？，2020+。73于。&.0*+>_/?布；？隱&,2020)©。?$丁44?0?？0?集0?&#

13、174;二%o?2?k,?0*+,-?,4|%?&，0*+A®?,2020)®o?+,?_$>wN?Kf,0?+._/?Xw3,<?-»-,>!?>,7+.?_/,$m&A?>200S?MM&.+.？于?：><?8?,2020/。?7?O?“ANjf-oI5<?y,2020)0,%omJ?FgoSc=7?若B$?%N?康，？于若05-?.o?9,0*+,?,2020>o7jfFgo&.%_/0*+，-?NdC?g,2020>o$W,0*+,jfd?0?,+.4$"

14、如©%,$于？.*4+姓！NcT_二ZC?$0,2020)®o7?CJ?Fgo&，-C»?集0于23帆53>,亶789二-?_/Xw-No.5.<No.>?Z_ABC3DEZ_F3b>GH?%J?<?8?,2020)«,3j?O$KC%MN,$P?_Zs-tXw.QD4?I,77?S'3TV，<WN,2020>®,%oXRI3>Z匚¥?O?二Q-$、No._tRCb®,2020)eoNo._cd3>0e233>O0t>-*-,No._233&g

15、t;*h,3J3>?二?kPXe-Fm3>,%o?OCnop33qi-,sxfi?*?J?233-t0©ux/;%備&N*+.?_?于，+,O報2020?02$OSo©IMF4©e：$%&，0+，-_/O$2,于Q-»-,2020-1-S1o©？©):&7%90+=二二<】_/,于才匿，2020-2-7。®C0*+,oI_/$K!41WM”，0*+,?2020-2-60©ik：C&_Z0M<+，-a?,0/+?,2O2O-2-4o<C0*u/w_/7&g

16、t;,0*/%o?,2020-02-120©0+>-/?<?$?¥,0*/%0?,2020-2-50于(§)?:&'Ni0*?,2020-02-1So?8?!:&0+，-_/?3之匚，8?%?乙=,2020-2-20。?*:&?J77%gh+.'a?,(3$O報2020-2-1S。I9?:0*+,$%?&，?于，？0報2020-02-14。®?尊:于F&>_/0*+.?Nd,?陣局2020-02-0SoS?$?:&?0+.:丁、二”一I/,2+?,2020-02-10。S?

17、8?>:&*0+，-_/?3>Z2020-2-2009-/+,?3-?fi:2333-?C&,2020-2-1SoS3_Z?R?|,0*!4?®,2020-2-1So2002.1M2002.2M2002.3M2002.4M2002.5M2002.6M2002.7M2002.8M2002.9M2002.10M2002.1 IM2002.12M2003.2M2003.3M2003.4M2003.5M2003.6M2003.7M2003.8M2003.9M2003.10MIM2003.12M<)云12司200sI7BXSP77<&pqAB77

18、l7g;)AB2002I12S7flvSE200sI7S司-司7司【云7司2司。r7拳PNQrAI司77(NFS司司司。fi司司<WNJ°們司司</!_!jM%向司AB司司7-N7E司。fi<wxsc+e司2)。)：M+uToo球23AI司7司NqP司司7200sI1SWE7司49.S%PS7司24-8S7NESNQ272%9S2flVPs77ePS*H<)司2以司XS772Q7司7s2727司<2SC+。"？。7M%印司。"hx2BX777司PS200s-sS2XS69%27fi200sI6S司X194%p2司<©7

19、BX司2司司7<WEEF200sIM次印司s。200sI6S司(Hos01JK%DMNOM2-司B7司<司司7H7pf-V2SE2。2%e司4)“司/I司司01司司。"X司s、司司司司B司。:we202052#)BJK:NOPR+USDT:M+Vsol23S回6200sI、ttM%<&s0*ws12、34ol67cc90jM%<&2002I二SV7SAB)SE200SI6S24O(HoS0IJK次DMN0OMPQRSTUs-MW%XN0/l_lX>，SbcdM%務(wù)。fi餌Qu.7eLM%務(wù)n/l_l0IOPXqTSr+次0ofi<w

20、x。7n0Txzropy&(Nh)sr+o個)：M+u009S23te3200sIttM%<&)"司司f司-LJ司P司司司r司。200sIAl司司司N司司司<<7efi司司-司V/UXAIP司司(s司司EM%印sco司；7P200SIX7司<W2S2002IX司司w司司。fivwxsp司司司司-拳司FjM%角nxrCPsC。司(與一)。%35_J30,25.20.15.、M1234U1*700200s:M4%Q0乙s、Aq溢032014567忒9；Al。出V7AB4F_SCALscmNCEVO.52N0.4202。774。I一420022003

21、+2002.6M2002.7M2002.8M2002.10M2002.11M2002.12M2003.1M2003.2M2003.3M2003.4M2003.5M2003.6M2003.7M2003.8M2003.9M.2002.5M32002.6M32002.7M&2002.8M2002.9MO2002.10M2002.11M2002.12M''2003.1M2003.2M2OO3.3M2003.4M2003.5M2003.12M2003.1IM2003.10M2003.9M2003.8M+2003.6M+2003.7M2002.4M2002.3M2002.2M200

22、2.1MIL5LI2200212003、u.s%no*+2002.9M2002.10M2002.1IM2002.12M3.2M2003.3M2003.4M2003.5M2003.6M2003.7M2003.8M2003.9MB;<$:?A)CDEF3G!,6No.fi8%,$_fl1%物4于。o870,A<3BoC-_DEfiGHIJ,I_MNMPQRA<?DST$限,7%oXNMPQZED限于e-FghD,jRI$nopcjr"sBuxzwxfiyzIFI$EXC4?S)o12n。0。00。oooooooo52002-2003wmoozWH.EOOZWEOOZW6

23、.E00ZW8.EOOZ4WEOOZ23W9.E00Z$WS.EOOZoWWEOOZzcWS.EOOZeWZ.EOOZ一wl.gozIwzooz*w二NoozW2ZOOZ'c7?fiNMPQpZDy_,2002I10$?=%?(§)3BoC_?12.2%,$?200SIS8.S%,NMPQ?$,y6$?_fl1?如6)0No.?,_?hSl_M,?$2002I12$?y11.1%如？4,一$?6$?8.8%,7J2004I1$?fl1于？hg;l_M,200SI2，$?%-?,$?9$?fl1?0一_._?0=?<于于？3人一_0?于？0?山一？字？刊？1<?8)

24、o$?R<J?J?DST?fi?L,7JR0%6-4-2-W6.E00ZW8.EOOZWEEOOZS9E00ZW5.EOOZW寸.EOOZWE.EOOZWZ.EOOZWI.EOOZWIISOZW2ZOOZW8.ZOOZW3OOZwW9.Z00Zo62002-2003!J67*+,-e/oONQK$234OPQX'S$+,/O的KVQS$Y2WITtoozWZ30Zw二.soozW2E00ZW6.E00ZW8.E00ZWE00ZW9.S00ZWS.EOOZW寸.SOONW斜00ZWZ.EOOZWI.EOOZwzoozW2Z00ZW6.gozW8.Z00ZW300ZW9.Z00Z_一

25、u5WITtoozWZ30Zw二.soozW2E00ZW6.E00ZW8.E00ZWE00ZW9.S00ZWS.EOOZW寸.SOONW斜00ZWZ.EOOZWI.EOOZwzoozW2Z00ZW6.gozW8.Z00ZW300ZW9.Z00Z_一u572002-2004?jABCDEF客EHIJ$LMNW6.S00ZW8.E00ZsuoozW9CO00ZWS.EOOZs寸.EOOZSIEOOZwzoozw=csioozW2.Z00ZW6Z00ZW8N00Zwz/zoozW9.Z00Z-120城市接待旅游人數(shù)增速旅行社接待國際游客人數(shù)增速>82002-2003?JZB:$LMN（%604

26、0200-204060-80-100-三.祥$g&（）$+,一的/O1210#$%&.$%*+如一_/0姓23453780%0*,$>cfg；BCD8E3GH,Il_MF0OP%*Q8%STUV。7Y$>匚Uabc.de-fgh,i_jfIMCDnoOOPpSqr"sl_-tu0x/wR,-|IFg?，于gBCDo0#Pp8?J?$5P?o井6g&'(73Q$+:;,一$=?2020(agBCDHNSTOOPpHSobP%?©.)Ch?0?9?F2014-2019$201SBi;$:>?)BCDE3F!20%J-$%&

27、;C>2019?6%>$©7%-/O1GDP_/O'2$456,2014-2019109二-<GDP一/彩$7%>$>Afi6%$。%20n向L6EZW6.20ZW96EZWE.6OZs二ocozW8OOSZ滲ocozwzooozW2SSZWWOZ-w寸HszWZ-9SZ.*W69OZ，W99SZWS.9SZM53ZS85OZwslnozsz.sozs二.寸3Zw92014-2019W830Z寸sz'w寸ozo。寸/好si/S»/S59g/gMZNZ8odo6o66Q<o<o<1-1-'1<i-H

28、»-H«-H0。0。0。0。&0000。0。ZzzzZrsjrsJfSjZzzzZzZZZrxJZrsjZzZZ5<nvS9G9gMZcZ8二1«1<=IM=二二U0。0。20000ZzrslfSjZrsJZzZzZZZ102014-2019!$)GDPNqK82347DEFGH3JK,McfOF-Q7TEBU3fi1XMYfi,N匚09¥-_YfiH30Cab>c,®二ghYfi>JJ-jf,®c;oqq4rfltNxz,01wMxy>z3I,09八_E2：cf?r-?o7200S!?MFG?限

29、？BU3fi1ghYfi,?$?$?"?刊，$。于？§?。09-_"于？>于200S5?MFG0?N/N?,9>?局？區(qū)？，202012$?,icf?g?FGIcf,09?C。？。PMIfiSS.7%,?H$O?14.S?$?;?o?Yfi?fi29.6%,?k$O?24.S?$?°©7g24"<D.?3?9？SO0?QNxz?"©M$2016>k?A9?-v?_/?C,%o?fi?F?/v?>?$?-/%-?/?0?<0©2$?oPMIfiSS.7%,?o?Yfi?f

30、i29.6%,(3$?,20200229。!e#$,2020&2$k>*1$+>,-,70/©122,260+4,17056,/©12+478#-cfZOl2kef7o©<=？,ACD"g#$,2020&2$HIAJKI_MKNfiPFfiS0.1%,1$HRSF2S.0U$WXoYN匚¥八_、a.b于.$Jhm7=>nLMKNfiPFoRSV20.0%+皇<i-s-fcNv,Fg#$2020&1$Ax于徊IIF87S.7EB$,No.一？4%,?EZDNo.-?2.2%,?$?2019S?

31、6?。2019&1$%B$D?RS0.8%,%?ED?RS0.6%,?5?#?02SHAs-tVPFIk$RS20U$WXY48.7%O?I,?IAJKJK|1。©|I?0?$#$,>0?-l_2020&S$%?七？于于Y9O.8%,?0?Lfi94.7%,W?-?kef11.949.1U$WX0®?$Fg#$,?Y2020&S$S目7?七？5%77.8%,?7o%310E3K7<?目？七？彩？68.2%,$?RS9.S%®No.?,Q?%?o?集s0?r"=>?>,（©?$7?吏？S$H7=&g

32、t;Nfi$0?%Rcfo$?,!?"么？看，于自0A?<%?,?%?0A?7?$vo<）*+No-./O®雖3f%S,<sROFg$flW1,?<2-?Nfi345+$789,?。A?7?二-?Az7<?7o<%o>?7nl_0,?fi8#7?、a_bjf_$?.YZEV-FnL,B?07?C-LNE_>HI77l_Jcfo?3,?$?Wnl_b7%M0?%o,®“PQNnl_.<SY®nl_-F01«行業(yè)首當(dāng)其航$J?UVWXYZ7E¥?2?,?9%o?$?JZJ?YAA$Za

33、?$FNo.d?No.7Yenfi,2;®?、-?$=,hi、aL?jk07"aLfiFLm®nNo.,3%or-Fj-sV®-、atu,?A%7/2限?Bx集7?>s（/）,y、al_（/）-CNfiNE4fi3oAj-CDMFg#$,2019&、afi4.67E2T口No-?9.4%00ANo.b?D,2O2O&0A、a!_）nl_>$0?SE2TEZl7?x?®n%No.7?$、FSOOO5o%o?l<?9?。根g2020&2$2-4Ofl$7?$Fg#$,69.S%7aM?Q$!_?？?>

34、2S.8%7、aM?Q$?3-I>M$4.9%7、I©©2020&2$k>3Z?j2?fi?,A>CD局2020-02-140©CD.m?2020&2$0A?PF,A3-CD2020-02-290©&7!4?$?,4?,2020-S-6o®I?/?fiS$H?PFk/,A>CD局2020-2-29。©AA?<?目？七？5物77.8%YZE¥?:$?-t7?<?>S$1SO?t,Q?,2020-S-63>?7jsnl_-L7-t?h%o0A/%oNo.?,

35、2020-2-70©?'nl_7?$->?0A?3,2020-2-16oB9i$:=4>)/OABC2.交通運輸業(yè)出行人數(shù)劇烈下降?%o?hAN限?B?3fih?E,ANe?#?,?0?區(qū)&?,20204(§);?*311,4SYB?,7X4No.7?2%;H;?No.*3>?8，&?20204®#*3,No.78-4S%©。?0,二X$2SO-2$14O)AN%?A*2.8SYBV.O?1S48WB?,No.7?882.S%,Vfi®#*3e?-F$0©3JW業(yè)就舊«¥猾n$于？"普艮A?$?,AjfC?J?8?020204®?7?N?$。？.？.？"？b>?o!5?g#,2020$1$24OY1$