區(qū)域貿(mào)易合作政策及東亞結(jié)構(gòu)體系 - 博鰲亞洲論壇

1、區(qū)域貿(mào)易合作政策及東亞結(jié)構(gòu)體系區(qū)域貿(mào)易合作政策及東亞結(jié)構(gòu)體系Chia Siow Yue新加坡國(guó)際事務(wù)研究所新加坡國(guó)際事務(wù)研究所亞洲自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定論壇亞洲自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定論壇:未來(lái)的走向未來(lái)的走向中國(guó)大飯店中國(guó)大飯店 北京北京 2010年年12月月8日日9日日2區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)1v 多邊主義、區(qū)域主義、雙邊主義在貿(mào)易政策中共存 2001年12月開(kāi)始的多哈談判現(xiàn)在仍陷入僵局 事實(shí)上，世貿(mào)組織中超過(guò)150個(gè)成員國(guó)表示大多數(shù)的國(guó)家在開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)及規(guī)范貿(mào)易流領(lǐng)域中更重視多變貿(mào)易。 但是，區(qū)域主義沖擊著東亞和其他地區(qū)。這表明很多國(guó)家正在尋求對(duì)多哈談判失敗的保險(xiǎn)政策，或者追求世貿(mào)組織一體化。根據(jù)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定可

2、以達(dá)到比世貿(mào)組織更深入的自由化和一體化的可能。但過(guò)大的分組缺乏“志同道合”，導(dǎo)致大擴(kuò)展名單卻只有不多的整合措施。 志同道合的國(guó)家當(dāng)中雙邊主義也在欣欣向榮的發(fā)展著，它更容易協(xié)商而且允許更深入更靈活的整合。但太多的雙邊自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定創(chuàng)造一碗面條的問(wèn)題，除非有一個(gè)共同的協(xié)商模板。3東亞全區(qū)域合作一體化案例東亞全區(qū)域合作一體化案例v 區(qū)域政治論點(diǎn)： 有用的區(qū)域合作與整合可以減少地區(qū)政治的緊張局勢(shì)和沖突。例如東盟。 在國(guó)際組織和論壇中更有凝聚性更具話語(yǔ)權(quán) 能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)（兌現(xiàn)）區(qū)域公共福利，同時(shí)又能減輕對(duì)全球和區(qū)域公眾的不利影響 v 經(jīng)濟(jì)論點(diǎn)： 幫助國(guó)家通過(guò)區(qū)域?qū)I(yè)化和規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)對(duì)全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，通過(guò)降低貿(mào)易和投資壁

3、壘，簡(jiǎn)化條例以及國(guó)內(nèi)有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的商業(yè)環(huán)境來(lái)提高經(jīng)濟(jì)效率，幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)重整和提升附加價(jià)值和技術(shù)水平;推動(dòng)區(qū)域生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和供應(yīng)鏈發(fā)展。實(shí)現(xiàn)比雙邊自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定帶來(lái)更大的利益和更低成本的全區(qū)域貿(mào)易。4東亞全區(qū)域合作一體化案例東亞全區(qū)域合作一體化案例2幫助國(guó)家克服歐美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定中已存在的歧視。提高來(lái)自19971998年亞洲金融危機(jī)的財(cái)政復(fù)蘇能力以及緩解全球金融危機(jī)蔓延促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的再平衡，以減少對(duì)美歐市場(chǎng)的依賴程度 此外，一個(gè)地區(qū)性的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定將簡(jiǎn)化并協(xié)調(diào)東亞貿(mào)易規(guī)則，盡量減少“一碗面條”的負(fù)面影響-海關(guān)編碼（HS系統(tǒng)）和海關(guān)手續(xù);原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則條例，產(chǎn)品標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和一致性要求，相互承認(rèn)專業(yè)資格 5關(guān)于努力加強(qiáng)全

4、區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)關(guān)于努力加強(qiáng)全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)1v 界定區(qū)域范圍的挑戰(zhàn)界定區(qū)域范圍的挑戰(zhàn) 多種多樣的專業(yè)術(shù)語(yǔ)被應(yīng)用 -東亞，亞洲，泛亞洲，亞太地區(qū) 兩個(gè)東亞集團(tuán)已被提出。東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)包括東盟10國(guó)加上中國(guó)、日本和韓國(guó)。東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定包括東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)國(guó)家以及澳大利亞，新西蘭和印度。這兩個(gè)集團(tuán)不包括香港，澳門，臺(tái)灣及蒙古。 亞太地區(qū)的兩個(gè)建議同時(shí)被提出 -跨太平洋戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系（TPP）和亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)（FTAAP）。 關(guān)于地理位置、地區(qū)政策以及經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的分組標(biāo)準(zhǔn)？ 從經(jīng)濟(jì)方面講，由于規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)以及創(chuàng)造貿(mào)易比轉(zhuǎn)移貿(mào)易帶來(lái)更大的效益，區(qū)域集團(tuán)越大越好。然而，在很大程度上取決

5、于該自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的設(shè)計(jì)。 6關(guān)于努力加強(qiáng)全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)關(guān)于努力加強(qiáng)全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)2v 關(guān)于設(shè)計(jì)高品質(zhì)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)關(guān)于設(shè)計(jì)高品質(zhì)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn) 世貿(mào)組織的一致性 - 符合關(guān)貿(mào)總協(xié)定第二十四條和服務(wù)貿(mào)易總協(xié)定第五條。因?yàn)闁|亞全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定將包括發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，所以它不能遵循世貿(mào)組織只對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家有利的條款。 世貿(mào)組織附加特點(diǎn) - 自由和便利的貨物及服務(wù)貿(mào)易，投資的自由、便利和保護(hù)；知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的保護(hù)，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)政策以及政府采購(gòu)的界定問(wèn)題，勞工流動(dòng)性和環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；經(jīng)濟(jì)合作 。v 來(lái)自廣闊發(fā)展差距的挑戰(zhàn)來(lái)自廣闊發(fā)展差距的挑戰(zhàn) 在自由化范圍、深度、速度方面很難達(dá)到共識(shí)

6、 對(duì)于欠發(fā)達(dá)的成員需要強(qiáng)調(diào)特殊和差別待遇，促進(jìn)和發(fā)展合作7關(guān)于努力加強(qiáng)全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)關(guān)于努力加強(qiáng)全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)3v 是否有區(qū)域領(lǐng)導(dǎo)？是否有區(qū)域領(lǐng)導(dǎo)？ 哪個(gè)國(guó)家或者國(guó)家集團(tuán)將出任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)位置? 是否擁有一個(gè)共同的政治眼光? 如何克服歷史爭(zhēng)端和現(xiàn)在的經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)抗? 如何讓一些國(guó)家在各種問(wèn)題中愿意放棄國(guó)家主權(quán)和政治空間？ 也許區(qū)域領(lǐng)導(dǎo)會(huì)根據(jù)問(wèn)題的不同而改變。v 加強(qiáng)區(qū)域外的經(jīng)濟(jì)相互依存性加強(qiáng)區(qū)域外的經(jīng)濟(jì)相互依存性 許多國(guó)家在經(jīng)濟(jì)上為了最終市場(chǎng)，技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓，外國(guó)直接投資和官方發(fā)展援助等原因向美歐靠攏。隨著當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)的相互依存關(guān)系將上升 。v 深度整合的不同意愿深度整合的不同意

7、愿 成員國(guó)越多，深度整合越難達(dá)成共識(shí)。也許應(yīng)該有一個(gè)核心思想，所有成員必須遵從。而且其他的思想成員國(guó)應(yīng)該明確表明何時(shí)能夠去做（如“東盟減X”的公式）。 是否也應(yīng)該包括金融一體化？ 8關(guān)于努力加強(qiáng)全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)關(guān)于努力加強(qiáng)全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的挑戰(zhàn)4v 對(duì)于已存在的眾多次區(qū)域和雙邊自由貿(mào)易區(qū)來(lái)講，全對(duì)于已存在的眾多次區(qū)域和雙邊自由貿(mào)易區(qū)來(lái)講，全區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定是否具有附加價(jià)值？區(qū)域自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定是否具有附加價(jià)值？ 給這些區(qū)域一個(gè)較大的發(fā)言權(quán)，并且使它們?cè)谏虅?wù)談判中比其他區(qū)域更具優(yōu)勢(shì)。 對(duì)于小型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，減少它們對(duì)于排斥和邊緣化的恐懼，減少因簽署和實(shí)施許多的雙邊自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定中行政和財(cái)務(wù)的費(fèi)用

8、9以東盟為中心的東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域主義以東盟為中心的東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域主義1v 東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)、東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)、AFAS，友邦保險(xiǎn)和，友邦保險(xiǎn)和AEC 東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)體具有經(jīng)濟(jì)多樣性的特點(diǎn)。多種差異表現(xiàn)在：東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)體具有經(jīng)濟(jì)多樣性的特點(diǎn)。多種差異表現(xiàn)在： 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平 以人均收入和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)為證 國(guó)際貿(mào)易和投資的開(kāi)放 易于做生意 經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力 對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易和投資開(kāi)放的巨大差異 需要縮短?hào)|盟需要縮短?hào)|盟6國(guó)和柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸和越南之間的發(fā)展差國(guó)和柬埔寨、老撾、緬甸和越南之間的發(fā)展差距。距。 特殊和差別待遇遵從自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定規(guī)程 在外國(guó)直接投資，國(guó)家發(fā)展，教育和培訓(xùn)方面提供經(jīng)濟(jì)和技術(shù)援助10以東盟為中心的東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域主義

9、以東盟為中心的東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域主義2機(jī)構(gòu)小但影響大機(jī)構(gòu)小但影響大有限功能的極小秘書處有限功能的極小秘書處。 組織每年眾多的關(guān)于許多政治領(lǐng)袖，政府官員，學(xué)者和其他專業(yè)人士對(duì)話和論壇。東盟的執(zhí)行不力的紀(jì)錄已被歸因于東盟的執(zhí)行不力的紀(jì)錄已被歸因于 缺乏“政治意愿” 缺乏實(shí)施能力 最小公分母的運(yùn)算以及護(hù)航隊(duì)中最薄弱環(huán)節(jié) 11以東盟為中心的東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域主義以東盟為中心的東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域主義3v 東盟東盟+1作為東亞基石作為東亞基石 東盟+中國(guó)，東盟+日本，東盟+韓國(guó)，東盟+印度以及東盟+澳大利亞/新西蘭。此外，在協(xié)商下還包括東盟+歐盟和東盟+ 海灣合作委員會(huì) 他們都在自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定外擴(kuò)展貨物貿(mào)易自由話，包括：服務(wù)

10、、投資的自由化，便利化以及諸如競(jìng)爭(zhēng)政策，知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)，政府采購(gòu)，以及經(jīng)濟(jì)和功能性合作等邊界問(wèn)題 不幸的是這些協(xié)議并沒(méi)有共同的模板，即在不同時(shí)間和不同的東盟成員之間的協(xié)商要采取不同的力度和敏感度。也沒(méi)有一個(gè)單一的東盟立場(chǎng)。有完成交易期，時(shí)間線，排除清單，原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和一致性要求的差異。如何實(shí)現(xiàn)這些差異的銜接呢？ 12東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū) 和 東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定關(guān)系協(xié)定 1v 關(guān)于東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定作關(guān)于東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定作為東亞自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)為東亞自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的競(jìng)爭(zhēng) 東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)或東盟+3成員：ASEAN10，中國(guó)，

11、日本，韓國(guó)。 東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴或東盟10成員：ASEAN10，中國(guó)，日本，韓國(guó)以及澳大利亞，新西蘭和印度（東亞峰會(huì)的成員） 東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)是由東盟 +3東亞展望小組于2001年提出的。東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定 是日本在2006年?yáng)|亞峰會(huì)時(shí)提出的。 兩者都是在自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定基礎(chǔ)上提出的，包括貿(mào)易和投資自由化和便利化， “新加坡議題”，并在廣泛的領(lǐng)域?qū)崿F(xiàn)區(qū)域合作和功能合作，也就是全面的經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定。13東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定關(guān)系協(xié)定 2v東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū) 東盟+3小組根據(jù)金融和貨幣合作的需要出現(xiàn)在亞洲金融危機(jī)之時(shí)。在東盟+3清邁倡議(CMI) 、清邁

12、倡議多邊化(CMIM),、亞洲債券市場(chǎng)倡議（ABMI）和區(qū)域監(jiān)測(cè)機(jī)制（AMRO） 中金融和貨幣的合作已經(jīng)制度化。東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)可行性研究于2005年啟動(dòng)，那時(shí)有東盟+3部長(zhǎng)。第一階段和第二階段的報(bào)告完成并提交。報(bào)告書建議的路線圖聯(lián)合東盟+1和中日韓以鞏固?hào)|亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)，隨即鞏固?hào)|亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定 14東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定關(guān)系協(xié)定 3v 東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定 東亞峰會(huì)同意在2007年1月啟動(dòng)對(duì)東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定 的研究。第一階段和第二階段的東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定 報(bào)告分別在2008年12月和2009年8月

13、提交。 它的功勞包括超過(guò)30億人口的最大的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)集團(tuán)：中國(guó)和印度的崛起。經(jīng)濟(jì)模擬結(jié)果表明，較大的東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系比小東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)擁有更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。有些人還認(rèn)為它也為在東亞地區(qū)平衡印度經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)抗中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)做出了貢獻(xiàn)。 不過(guò)，也有人認(rèn)為，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)并不像東盟+3集團(tuán)那樣自由化，而且其保護(hù)主義勢(shì)力將會(huì)減緩區(qū)域貿(mào)易自由化和投資自由化的步伐。 15東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定關(guān)系協(xié)定 4v如何去做呢？如何去做呢？ 2009年10月，在泰國(guó)華欣舉行的東盟峰會(huì)沒(méi)有達(dá)成任何明確的決定。相反，高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)官員奉命考慮東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)和東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定這兩個(gè)提議，并

14、匯報(bào)給2010年10月的東盟首腦會(huì)議 。普遍的看法似乎是：鞏固?hào)|盟+1成為東亞自由貿(mào)易區(qū)然后促成東亞全面經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定 。16 亞太一體化亞太一體化.1v 跨太平洋經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系跨太平洋經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系 跨太平洋戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系（TPP的或P4）協(xié)議在4個(gè)小型及開(kāi)放的APEC成員：文萊，新加坡，新西蘭和智利于2006年實(shí)施。 它沒(méi)有引起多少關(guān)注，直到美國(guó)表示有興趣參加，引發(fā)了多米諾骨牌效應(yīng)。加入TPP的洽談協(xié)商如今在原P4的國(guó)家以及澳大利亞，馬來(lái)西亞，越南和秘魯中進(jìn)行，而日本由于其強(qiáng)大的民眾農(nóng)業(yè)保護(hù)主義而猶豫不定。 跨太平洋戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟(jì)伙伴關(guān)系是一種“高品質(zhì)”的協(xié)議，許多人將它看成是更廣泛的亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)合

15、作組織自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定（亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)）的建設(shè)集團(tuán)。隨著新成員的進(jìn)入這種“高品質(zhì)”將如何被削弱仍有待觀察。 17亞太一體化亞太一體化.2v 亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(FTAAP) v 之前美國(guó)為亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)提供的建議迄今遭到了冷之前美國(guó)為亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)提供的建議迄今遭到了冷淡的回應(yīng)，評(píng)論家們認(rèn)為：淡的回應(yīng)，評(píng)論家們認(rèn)為： 這將從根本上將亞太經(jīng)合組織從一個(gè)自愿性質(zhì)的組織改變成一個(gè)談判論壇。 在亞太經(jīng)合組織21個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，使其在高質(zhì)量的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定中達(dá)成共識(shí)幾乎是不可能的。 美國(guó)總統(tǒng)如果沒(méi)有完全的追蹤干涉權(quán)和美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義是不可能批準(zhǔn)亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)成立的。 它會(huì)從多哈回合談判中轉(zhuǎn)移稀缺資

16、源。 然而，在2010年11月亞太經(jīng)合組織首腦會(huì)議中，亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的想法是重新復(fù)活。它充其量只能作為一個(gè)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)目標(biāo)，因?yàn)橹卮筇魬?zhàn)依然存在。 展示結(jié)束展示結(jié)束謝謝大家謝謝大家Regional Trade Policy Cooperation and Architecture in East Asia Chia Siow YueSingapore Institute of International AffairsAsian FTA Forum: The Way ForwardChina World Hotel, Beijing8-9 December 201020The Regional Eco

17、nomic Architecture1v Co-existence of multilateralism, regionalism and bilateralism in trade policy Doha Round launched in December 2001 and is still in stalemate. The fact that WTO has more than 150 members shows most countries value multilateralism in opening markets and disciplining trade flows. B

18、ut regionalism is surging in East Asia and elsewhere. Which shows that countries are seeking an insurance policy against Doha failure, or else are pursuing WTO-plus integration. FTAs could achieve deeper liberalization and integration than possible under the WTO. But too large a grouping lacks “l(fā)ike

19、-mindedness” and results in shallow integration with large exclusion lists. Bilateralism is also thriving among like-minded pairs of countries. It is easier to negotiate and allows for deeper integration as well as flexibility. But too many bilateral FTAs create a noodle bowl problem unless there is

20、 a common negotiating template21Case for Region-Wide Cooperation and Integration1v Geopolitical arguments: Usefulness of regional cooperation and integration in reducing geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Example of ASEAN. Cohesive and stronger voice in international organizations and fora Deliver

21、ing on regional public goods and mitigating against global and regional public badsv Economic arguments: Help countries cope with global competition through regional specialization and economies of scale; improve economic efficiency through lowering of trade and investment barriers, simplifying regu

22、lations, a competitive domestic environment for business; help economies restructure and move up the “value added” and technological ladder; facilitate regional production networks and supply chains. Larger benefits and lower costs of region-wide versus bilateral FTAs22Case for Region-Wide Cooperati

23、on and Integration in East Asia2 Help countries overcome discrimination from existing FTAs in Europe and the Americas Develop financial resilience following the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 and mitigating global financial contagion Facilitate rebalancing of growth to reduce dependence on US-EU

24、markets Additionally, a region-wide FTA would streamline and harmonize the rules of doing business in East Asia and minimize the negative noodle bowl effect -customs codes (HS system) and customs procedures; rules of origin; product standards and conformance requirements; mutual recognition of profe

25、ssional qualifications 23Challenges of Forging a Region-Wide FTA1v Challenge of defining the “region” Various terminology in use - East Asia, Asia, Pan-Asia, Asia Pacific Two East Asian groupings have been proposed. EAFTA comprises ASEAN10 plus China, Japan and South Korea. CEPEA comprises EAFTA cou

26、ntries as well as Australia, New Zealand and India. Both groupings exclude Hong Kong-Macau, Taiwan and Mongolia Two Asia Pacific proposals also on the table TPP and FTAAP Geographical, geopolitical, or economic criteria for groupings? On economic criteria, the bigger the regional grouping the better

27、, due to economies of scale and scope and more trade creating than diverting effects. However, much depends on the design of the FTA 24 Challenges of Forging a Region-Wide FTA2v Challenge of designing a high quality FTA WTO consistency conforms to the GATT Article XXIV and GATS Article V. Since an E

28、ast Asian region-wide FTA will comprise both developed and developing economies, it cannot be notified to the WTO under the Enabling Clause for developing countries. WTO plus features liberalization and facilitation of trade in goods and services; investment liberalization, facilitation and protecti

29、on; behind-the-border issues of intellectual property rights protection, competition policy, government procurement; labor mobility and environmental standards; economic cooperationv Challenge of wide development gaps Difficult to achieve consensus on scope, depth and speed of liberalization Need to

30、 emphasis S&D treatment, facilitation, and development cooperation for the less developed members25 Challenges of Forging a Region-Wide FTA3v Is there regional leadership? Which country or group of countries is going to lead? Is there a common political vision? How to overcome historic mistrust

31、and current economic rivalry? How willing are countries to surrender national sovereignty and policy space on various issues? Maybe regional leadership will vary according to issuesv Extra-regional economic interdependence stronger Many countries are economically closer to the US-Europe for final ma

32、rkets, technology transfer, FDI and ODA. With the current global crisis, economic interdependence in East Asia will risev Different willingness for deep integration The larger the membership, the greater the difficulty in reaching consensus on deep integration. Maybe there should be a core that all

33、members must commit to and other commitments that members can sign-on to as and when able (e.g. “ASEAN minus X” formula). Willingness to have financial integration as well?26 Challenges of Forging a Region-Wide FTA4v Is there value added in a region-wide FTA, given the numerous sub-regional and bila

34、teral FTAs already in existence? Gives the region a larger voice and bargaining leverage versus other regional groupings For small economies, reduce fear of exclusion and marginalization, and reduce the administrative and financial costs of having to sign and implement so many bilateral FTAs27ASEAN-

35、Centric Economic Regionalism in East Asia1v ASEANs AFTA, AFAS, AIA and AEC ASEAN economies characterize by tremendous economic diversity. Wide differences in: Levels of economic development - as evidenced by per capita income and economic structure Openness to international trade and investment Ease

36、 of doing business Economic competitiveness Wide differences in openness to international trade and investment Need to narrow development gap between ASEAN6 and CLMV S&D treatment in meeting FTA obligations and schedules Financial and technical help in form of foreign direct investment, developm

37、ent assistance, education and training assistance28ASEAN-Centric Economic Regionalism in East Asia2 Institution-light but dialogue-heavy Very small secretariat with limited functions. Numerous annual dialogues and forums among political leaders, bureaucrats, academics and other professionals, and ci

38、vil society ASEANs weak implementation record have been attributed to Lack of “political will” Lack of capacity to implement Operation of lowest common denominator or weakest link in the convoy29 ASEAN-Centric Economic Regionalism in East Asia3v ASEAN+1 as building blocks in East Asia ASEAN+China, A

39、SEAN+Japan, ASEAN+Korea, ASEAN+India and ASEAN+Australia/New Zealand. Also under negotiation are ASEAN+EU and ASEAN+Gulf Cooperation Council They are all FTA plus in that they extend beyond trade liberalization in goods to include liberalization of trade in services and investment, facilitation, and

40、 behind-the-border issues such as competition policy, intellectual property rights, government procurement, and economic and functional cooperation. Unfortunately these agreements have no common template, being negotiated at different times and with different ASEAN partners with different negotiatin

41、g strengths and sensitivities. There is also no single ASEAN position. There are differences in completion dates, time lines, exclusion lists, rules of origin, standards and conformance requirements. How to achieve convergence with these differences?30EAFTA and/or CEPEA 1v Contest between EAFTA and

42、CEPEA as an East Asia FTA. EAFTA or ASEAN+3 membership: ASEAN10, China, Japan, South Korea. CEPEA or ASEAN+10 membership: ASEAN10, China, Japan, South Korea as well as Australia, New Zealand and India (members of the East Asia Summit) EAFTA proposed by the ASEAN+3 East Asia Vision Group in 2001. CEP

43、EA proposed by Japan in 2006 to the East Asia Summit. Both are FTA-plus proposals with inclusion of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, “Singapore issues”, and regional cooperation and functional cooperation in wide areas, that is, comprehensive economic partnership agreements.31EA

44、FTA and/or CEPEA 2v EAFTA ASEAN+3 grouping emerged in the Asian Financial Crisis and need for financial and monetary cooperation. Financial and monetary cooperation is already institutionalized in the ASEAN+3 Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI), Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralized (CMIM), Asian Bond Mark

45、et Initiative (ABMI) and the regional surveillance mechanism (AMRO) Feasibility study on EAFTA launched in 2005 by ASEAN+3 ministers. Phase I and Phase II of report completed and submitted. Report proposed road map consolidation of ASEAN+1 and CJK to EAFTA and then CEPEA32EAFTA and/or CEPEA 3v CEPEA

46、 East Asia Summit in January 2007 agreed to launch study on CEPEA. Phase I and Phase II CEPEA Reports submitted in Dec 2008 and August 2009 respectively Merit of including both a rising China and a rising India, resulting in the largest economic bloc of over 3 billion population in the world. Econom

47、ic modeling results show the larger CEPEA confers more economic benefits than the smaller EAFTA. Some also argue the merits of balancing the economic might of India against that of China in the East Asia region. However, there is also the concern that the Indian economy is not as liberalized as the

48、ASEAN+3 group and its protectionist forces will slow down the pace of regional trade and investment liberalization33EAFTA and/or CEPEA 4v Way Forward? At ASEAN Summits in Hua Hin in October 2009, no definite decision reached. Instead, senior economic officials were tasked to consider the recommendations of both the EAFTA and CEPEA reports and to report b