麥肯錫為三星做的中國冰箱行業(yè)戰(zhàn)略報告ppt課件

1、CONFIDENTIALIndustry Situation Analysis: Refrigeratoraaaaaa ELECTRONICS CHINA (aaaaaa China)This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Co

2、mpany. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion.KEY MESSAGESRefrigerator market is expected to grow at 4.6% annually from RMB 21 billion in 2000 to RMB 26 billion in 2005. Although growing at a rate as high as 31.1%, side

3、-by-side refrigerator market is expected to remain very limited in the next 5 yearsIn general, industry profitability for refrigerator is moderate. However, side-by-side refrigerators enjoy double digit return on salesExcept side-by-side refrigerator, refrigerator market is led by local players. How

4、ever, there are opportunities for MNCs to successfully build up their position by focusing on mid-to-high-end segmentsThe refrigerator industry is relatively “l(fā)ow-tech and has low entry barriers. Entry into WTO is not expected to have direct huge impact on the competitive environmentWith market shar

5、es around 3 to 4%, aaaaaa is moderately positioned in refrigerator market. MARKET ASSESSMENTMarket assessmentSupply (competitor) analysisDemand (customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMARKET ASSESSMENTSupply (competitor) analysisDemand (customer)analysisOverall environment ana

6、lysisMarket definitionEvaluation criteria, weight and rating Assessment of market attractiveness Market assessmentProduct/service definitionRelevant regulatory environment and trends Relevant technological environment and trends Market size and growth rateKey buying factorsDistribution channel struc

7、tureMarket share by competitorIndustry profitability or economicsMARKET DEFINITIONProduct/service definitionSupply (competitor) analysisDemand (customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMarket assessmentPRODUCT SCOPE WHITE GOODSProduct groupProduct categoryAir conditioner Washing

8、 machineWhite goodsMicrowave Packaged A/CCentral A/C*Side-by-sideRefrigerator Product subcategories*Used by residentials and small businessesMARKET DEFINITIONSupply (competitor) analysisDemand (customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMarket assessmentRelevant regulatory environ

9、ment and trends Relevant technological environment and trends LOW-END REFRIGERATOR MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE DOMINATED BY LOCAL COMPETITORS. MNCS COULD SUCCEED IN THE MID-TO-HIGH-END NICHE MARKETSRegulatoryTrends/issuesImplications Market has been fairly open and will remain soMost leading MNC players

10、are already in China and have localized their production and sourcingTechnologicalIn general, technologies for refrigerators are not very complicated, esp. for low-end productsTechnology trend is to focus on digitization, artificial intelligence and environmental friendlinessEntry to WTO is not expe

11、cted to have huge direct impact on current competitive environmentThe market is likely to be dominated by local players who are mostly not as strong in technology as MNC players but stronger in channel and sales capabilities, especially in the low-end segmentsMNC players are likely to succeed by bei

12、ng niche players and focusing on mid-to-high-end segmentsCompetition in product innovation is likely to focus on customization and localizationMARKET DEFINITIONSupply (competitor) analysisDemand (customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMarket assessmentMarket size and growth ra

13、teKey buying factorsDistribution channel structureALTHOUGH aaaaaaOND LARGEST MARKET AMONG WHITE GOODS, REFRIGERATOR MARKET GROWTH WILL BE MODESTSource: GFK, SINO-MR, Light Industry Information Center, aaaaaa, field interviews, McKinsey analysis2000Side-by-sideNon-side-by-side refrigerators2001200220

14、0320042005CAGR(00-05)Percent21,13022,06023,05024,07025,14026,260Key driversRationale or assumptionsReplace-mentSince the penetration rate in China is high (80%), particularly in major cities (100%), majority of the demand for non-side-by-side refrigerators will come from replacement purchaseIncome g

15、rowthIncrease in average disposable income drives demand for mid-to-large capacity and mid-to-high end refrigeratorsAverage priceDrops at 4% p.a.74961261662172854.64.431.1Refrigerator market size and growth RMB millions, percentUnits sold(non-side-by-side)millionsAverage sellingprice(non-side-by-sid

16、e)9.414.313.112.111.110.21,8401,9101,9902,0702,1602,2508.8-4.0THE MARKET IS VERY SATIATEDReplacement is likely to be the key driver for future demandSource:China Statistics YearbookPenetration rate in ChinaTier 1Tier 2Tier 3Whole China103%101%87%80%MID-TO-LARGE CAPACITY REFRIGERATORS HAVE BEEN CONSU

17、MERs FAVORITE CHOICESource:SINO-MR, GfK 300LCAGR(00-05)Percent8.69.19.4-18.44.5-22.54.9-5.117.38.7-18.4-18.4SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATOR MARKET WILL BE OF VERY LIMITED SIZE, DESPITE ITS HIGH GROWTH RATERMB millions, percent200020012002200320042005CAGR(00-05)Percent 31.1Key driversRationale or assumptio

18、nsLiving spaceOnly households with kitchens over 30m2* are assumed to possibly consider side-by side refrigeratorsHousehold incomeOnly households with average annual income over RMB500,000 are assumed to possibly consider side-by-side refrigeratorsLifestyleMost wealthy people have maids who do groce

19、ry shopping everyday and they are not in high demand for super large refrigeratorsPriceDrops at 2% p.a.*Construction areaSource:Zhongxi Trading Co., aaaaaa, Lufthansa Department Store, Sci-tech Department Store, YYSC, team analysis3,5004,6806,2608,38011,21015,00033.8Units soldSide-by-side refrigerat

20、ormarket size and growthAverage selling price21.020.620.219.819.419.0-2.0Key customer groupsChinese educated overseasExpatriatesWealthy local peopleKey marketsShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenShenyangPRICE IS THE DOMINANT FACTOR FOR CONSUMERS NON-SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATOR CHOICE WHILE BRAND AWARENESS IS MOR

21、E IMPORTANT FOR SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATORFactors to consider when making non-side-by-side refrigerator purchasing decisionsPercent of respondentsSource:IMI, SCSS2000, interview47282623191714141074Brand imagePriceCapacityEnergy-savingExterior designLow noiseNo frostAfter-sales serviceNon-CFCsFreezer

22、capacityOtherKBFs for side by side refrigeratorSoft commercials, such as putting a side-by-side refrigerator in the club of high-end residential area is very effective in increasing the awarenessMany potential customers are not fully aware of the existence of side-by-side refrigerators in China mark

23、etWhen making purchase decisions, the key factors that customers consider are brand, design and featureMr.Gu Yong GuyManagerZXHY Trading Co.DIRECT COOLING IS STILL THE PREFERRED CHOICE ACROSS THE MARKETPercentSource:SINO-MR; GfK, field interview North West East China Although indirect-cooling refrig

24、erator is frost-free, it tends to dry up the food. As a result, it is particularly unpopular in less humid areas such as Northern China North East North ChinaSouth West Central West Market share of direct cooling refrigerators in major cities, 2000CHANNEL STRUCTURE FOR REFRIGERATORS IS FLAT, ESPECIA

25、LLY FOR LOCAL PLAYERS Source:InterviewManufacturersFirst tier distributorsRetailersLocal manufacturers = 70-80%MNC manufacturers = 30-50%Department storesHypermarketsSpecialty storesOthersLocal manufacturers = 20-30%MNC manufacturers = 50-70%AMONG ALL RETAIL CHANNELS, HYPER MARKETS AND SPECIALTY STO

26、RES ARE EXPECTED TO GROW FAST IN THE NEAR FUTURESales distribution by channel - white goodsPercentHyper marketsSpecialty stores*Department storesOthers5199820002003E*Includes electronic chains such as Guomei and DazhongSource:SaaaaaaDISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE FOR SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATORS DIFFER BY TIE

27、R CITIESTier 1 citiesManufacturers1st tier distributorsRetailers 2nd tier distributors20%70%End users10%Manufacturers1st tier distributorsRetailers 100%Tier 2 citiesSource:Field interviewKELONs CHANNEL STRUCTURE FOR REFRIGERATORS Source:Annual report, field interviews Rongsheng Kelon is currently ex

28、ploring other channel strategies:Set up sales and distribution companies with distributors Cooperate with large retailers such as Carrefour and Guomei in product planning Kelon Retailers 1st tier distributors 95%5%Kelon Retailers 1st tier distributors 40%60%Kelon HAIER HAS A DISTINCTIVE DISTRIBUTION

29、 APPROACH WHICH IS HEAVILY FOCUSING ON DIRECT RETAIL SALES FOR BASE AND HUB CITIES. Source: Field interview; McKinsey analysisSpecialty shoresFirst tier cityaaaaaaond tier cityThird tier cityHaier shop-in-shopsRetailers in first tier citiesRetailers in some large aaaaaaond tier citiesSpecialty store

30、Haier shop in shopsRetailers in aaaaaaond tier citiesSpecialty storeHaier shop in shopsRetailers in third tier citiesSpecialty storesHaier A/C sales Co.Haier sales branches in small aaaaaaond tier citiesWholesales in some third tier citiesHaier sales center in first tier citiesHaier sales center in

31、some large aaaaaaond tier citiesHaier sales centers in first and aaaaaaond tier citiesHaier sales branches in big third tier citiesEast regionNorth regionWest regionSouth regionMARKET DEFINITIONSupply (competitor) analysisDemand (customer)analysisOverall environment analysisMarket definitionMarket a

32、ssessmentMarket share by competitorIndustry profitability or economicsWHILE THE MARKET IS GETTING MORE DOMINATED BY TOP PLAYERS COMBINED, MNC PLAYERS ARE GRADUALLY TAKING MORE SHARES*Rongsheng and Kelon combined Source:SINO-MR, GfK, LIIC100%=1998Others 1999200037.415.58.72.732.435.713.88.25.95.728.0

33、30.912.38.610.08.826.1aaaaaa Electrolux Meiling Kelon*Haier Siemens 8.69.19.4Haier and Kelon are the leading players. However, their market shares are decreasing Although latecomers to the market, Electrolux and Siemens are quickly building up their positions by focusing on mid-to high-end and high-

34、end markets Compared to other MNC players, aaaaaas growth in the market is rather slow Millions units, percent Refrigerator market share of major players in major cities4.5-6.215.6270.7101.23.9-6.9-5.0CAGR(98-00)PercentaaaaaaHaier/Kelon/Meiling Siemens/Electrolux2.63.32.70.7EAST, SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST

35、 CHINA SEEM TO BE THE WINNING TERRITORY FOR MNC PLAYERS * Kelon and Rongsheng combined Source:SINO-MR, GfK, LIIC100%=North China Others aaaaaa Electrolux Meiling Kelon*Haier Siemens 2.33.50.5Electrolux and Siemens are doing particularly well in Southwest Apart from Southwest, MNC players are doing b

36、etter in east China and South China, relatively more affluent areas aaaaaa is relatively strong in East China and South China North East East China Central South South West North West 0.90.71.432.011.68.59.85.31.730.836.616.111.57.65.90.421.926.06.29.79.48.210.130.331.014.36.99.710.53.324.420.411.09

37、.819.218.50.320.833.818.29.68.60.124.15.6Market share in major cities by geography, 2000Million units, percentaaaaaaHaier/Kelon/Meiling Siemens/ElectroluxLOCAL LEADING PLAYERS ARE DOMINATING IN ALMOST ALL PRICE SEGMENTS, MNC PLAYERS TEND TO BE STRONG IN MID-TO-HIGH END MARKETS *Another Kelons brand

38、Source:SINO-MR, GfK, LIIC100%= 4,0002.01.92.024.112.51.217.819.624.80016.012.60.17.74.145.713.828.316.50.18.510.031.51.93.447.39.71.15.98.87.21.318.736.32.03.82.919.326.09.40.429.80.14.34.70.348.10.312.5Rongsheng*0Market share in major cities by price band, 2000Million units, percentElectroluxKelon/

39、RongshengSiemensaaaaaaLOCAL PLAYERS ARE DOMINANT IN MOST PRODUCT SEGMENTS, MNC PLAYERS HAVE STRENGTH IN MID-TO-LARGE CAPACITY MARKETS*Another Kelons brand Source:SINO-MR, GfK, LIIC100%= 100LOthers aaaaaa Electrolux Meiling Kelon*Haier Siemens 0.21.00.7Haier is leading in most markets Electrolux and

40、Siemens have strong position in mid-to-large capacity markets aaaaaa is very strong in small capacity ( 300L2.60.03Rongsheng* 40.47.8036.90.119.851.213.401.49.602.821.424.823.30.59.07.76.51.127.129.89.10.813.75.27.54.229.735.511.70.85.911.010.12.922.123.45.41.17.824.12.61.234.417.28.55.25.013.730.41

41、9.90.125.1019.02.61.152.00.20Market share in major cities by product type, 2000aaaaaaHaier/Rongsheng/Kelon Siemens/ElectroluxGE IS THE LEADING PLAYER IN SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATOR MARKET 100%=Others* aaaaaa 1,0003,500The market is dominated by MNC playersaaaaaa has significant share in the market. Ho

42、wever, GE clearly dominatesNew players such as Haier are entering the market The high-end side-by-side refrigerator market is likely to remain MNCs territory while “l(fā)ocal players will focus on lower-end segmentsUnits, Percent Unit market share60*Includes Haier, LG, Whirlpool, etc.Source:Zhongxi Trad

43、ing Co., aaaaaaGE19992000Growthpercent250N/A319211KEY MNC PLAYERS ENJOY PRICE PREMIUMS IN SIDE-BY-SIDE REFRIGERATORSGE entered the market first and has the strongest brand image. Its price is the highest aaaaaas price is 10-20% lower than GEsOther players prices are on average 10% lower than aaaaaas

44、 Source:Field interview; GfKKELON AND MEILINGS FINANCIALS SHOW THAT MANUFACTURERS PROFIT SUFFERED OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW Source:Morgan Stanley Dean Witter report, annual reportsMeiling19972001E2000E19991998KelonEBIT marginPercentMARKET ASSESSMENTMarket assessmentSupply (competitor) analysisDemand (cus