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1、STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter StangerE-COMMERCE IS DEAD“E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce The Industry Standard, April 2000“Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes BustForbes, April 2000“Can you build a brand online selling third-party

2、 goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yesBryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at Amazon - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever se

3、en.Warren Packard, Draper Fisher JurvetsonTOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems“If you cant generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.“On the B2B exchange side, I dont think anyone will survive. They are all gone.THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONGTraveloc

4、ityBarnsandnobelExpediaDrugstoreEggheadPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4BIS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860 - 18901895 - 1925FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cottonEngland

5、 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-20191019151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95Lower processing costs . with increased throughput .Fiber capacityTime1050104103102 and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of connection

6、sProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+ 2cF+ 3cF+ 4cF+ 5cF+ 6cF+ 7cF+ 8cF+ 9cF+ 10cF+ ncValue, costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connections lower storage costs .$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize (GB)Cost ($/MB)LONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network)Design/buil

7、dOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingNetworkDesign/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailRetailNetwork intelligenceValue added servicesWholesale service creationNetwork intelligenceVa

8、lue added servicesNetwork management/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales & marketingIncreased development costsRole of blockbusters increasingQuality outsourcers availableEasier coordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-tu

9、ringSales & marketingAcademic labsBiotech firmsContract research organizationsContractmfrsPBMsJVs/licensingELECTRIC UTILITIESCOMPUTER INDUSTRYAT&T, MCI and Sprint fragmented radicallyMicroprocessors, integrated circuits, memory chipsComputersOperating systemsApplications softwareMarketing, sales, an

10、d distributionCommon standardsTime based competition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixCompaqDellApplePackard BellIBMDOS and WindowsUNIXMac OSOS/2Microsoft OfficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSuperstoresOn-lineMail orderNeXtIBM , Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackward integration to reduce

11、riskForward integration to open supply channelsScale through focusing on huge power plantsSynergy through bundling capabilities of general trading and energy businessNew services for the customerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNational Power (UK)Electrobel (Belgium)RWE (Germany)Norsk Kraftmegling (Norway)Enron

12、United Utilities (UK)South-ernWaterEastern Elect-ricity (UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en (Ger-many)1990199519851990Statkraft (Norway)Oslo Energi (Norway)EVO (Germany)IVO (Finland)MANY INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCING A REDEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF THE MARGIN POOL IS OCCURINGDigital

13、 Photography Example CameraFilmEquipmentPaper, chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/ enlargeStore/ display Share with othersProcessingAnalog value chain Kodak and Fuji dominateMajor players (2000 U.S. market share)CanonNikonOlympusMinoltaKodakFujiKodak (66%)FujiKodak (Qualex) (40%)FujiPhotohutsAlbum manuf

14、acturersFrame manufacturersMail servicesdisposablesCameraManipulationCropAlter pixelsPrinterPaper, inkReprint/ enlargeStore/displayShare with othersProcessing (at home)Digital value chain HP, Sony and others well-positionedMajor players (2000 U.S. market share)Sony (35%)HP (19%)Olympus (13%)Kodak (1

15、2%)HP (70%)LexmarkEpsonHPLexmarkEpsonKodakPCIBM microdriveSonyCompact Flash postingPersonal Web siteZingShutterflySnapfishOfotoOthersAdobe (Photoshop)Standard with camera and available free onlineEXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN ONLINE RETAILING CONTINUES65.117.8Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0 and

16、4.0, S surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group; SEC filings; Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data; industry association reports; analyst reportsNote:Excludes financial brokerage11.515.2North American Business-to-Consumer Revenues ($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Online channel 10% sh

17、are in several categoriesCATALOGUERS ARE WINNINGEBIT Margin in % of Revenues19992000Source:The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0, 4.0; S Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting GroupADVANTAGE INCUMBENTSOnline RetailingDotsMarketplacesCLECsCataloguersGE, Big 3ILECs/IXCsB2BTelecomRENAISSANC

18、E OF THE FUNDAMENTALSIPO valueCash flowGrowth = valueProfitable growth = valueCustomer acquisitionSegmentationInternet timeCompetitive advantageTHE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEADIllustrative view of transforming forces, Circa 2021Technology) GlobalizationDeregulationElectroniccommerceSource: BCG analysisDeregulationandglobalizationindex(1999=100)Technology andelectroniccommerce index(1999=100)A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS!Asset turns(sales/ assets)Cash flow margin in % of sales(%)RetailCons