RiskAnalysisandManagement風(fēng)險分析與管理課件

1、1Chapter 19精簡版 (Week 13 )Risk Analysis and ManagementTian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 13第1頁，共21頁。2Quick Review“Slow-start, multiplicative growth”TCP Congestion control principleLast week we discussed metrics of software project Two types of metrics: size-oriented and function point based est

2、imation. Due NowTian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7“學(xué)而時(練)習(xí)之, 不亦悅乎?”孔子第2頁，共21頁。3Your Role in the Project Technically Liberian (information collection) Clerk (documentation)UIF designerAlgorithm and data structure (specialist)Database (specialist)Project Manager (planning, scheduling etc.)Test

3、er Risk manager (analyzer, monitor) Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第3頁，共21頁。4Risk Robert CharetteCHA89Risk concerns future happenings. (Earthquake) Risk involves change (of mind, opinion, actions, or places) Risk involves choice, uncertainty Q: Can we create better situations of tomorrow

4、by changing our actions today?“ Paradoxically, like death and taxes, risk is one of the few certainties of life.”Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第4頁，共21頁。5Quick LookWhat is it? A series of steps to understand and manage uncertainty. Who does it? Everyone involved Why is it important? Lots

5、of things can go wrong and often do. “Be prepared”. What are the steps? Identify, Analyze and Manage (RMMM)What is the work product? A RMMM plan or RIS How do I ensure that Ive done it right? Revisited as goTian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第5頁，共21頁。6Risk Strategies Reactive or fire fighting

6、 mode. Act after crisis happens.Proactive : begins long before technical work is initiated. Reactive or Proactive? “是主動積極還是被動去做一件事,其結(jié)果是截然不同的.” Case 1: Playing basketball, NBA 2008 final Case 2: Expectation Vs Proactive, ReactiveTian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第6頁，共21頁。7Software RisksTwo Ch

7、aracteristics: Uncertainty, LossDifferent Categories Project risks (budget, schedule, resource etc.; complexity, size and uncertain structure)Technical risks (design, implement, interface etc), problem is harder than thought to be.Business risks (Market, strategic, sales, management, budget) Known,

8、predictable, unpredictable by Charette CHA89Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第7頁，共21頁。8 Risk Identification A systematic attempt to specify threats to the project plan.Risk item checklist (generic and product-specific) Project size (PS)Business impact (BU)Customer characteristic (CU).Proces

9、s definition (PD)Development environment (DE)Technology to built (TE)Staff size and experience (SE) Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第8頁，共21頁。9Assessing Overall RiskTian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7Negative answers- RMMM第9頁，共21頁。10Risk Impact Assessment TableTian Wenhong,Software En

10、gineering, Week 7第10頁，共21頁。11 Risk Projection attempt to rate each risk in two ways: (1) the probability that the risk is real and (2) the consequences of problems occur. Risk Projection Activities (by all members) 1. Establish a scale that reflects the probability2. Delineate the consequence of the

11、 risk3. Estimate the impact of the risk on the project4. Note overall accuracy of the risk projectionTian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第11頁，共21頁。12Risk Estimation-Sample Risk TableTian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7第12頁，共21頁。13Risk and Management ConcernTian Wenhong,Software Engineerin

12、g, Week 7Cutoff: areas within the range of 0.7,1 第13頁，共21頁。14Risk AssessmentExamine the level of performance degradation, cost overrun, support difficulty, or schedule slippage (or any combination)Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第14頁，共21頁。15Risk Exposure Tian Wenhong,Software Engineering,

13、Week 7P is probability, C is cost第15頁，共21頁。16Risk Refinement refine the risk into a set of more detailed risks, easier to mitigate, monitor and manage.Condition-transition-consequence (CTC) or IF-THEN formatGiven that then there is concern that Subcondtion1: Certain reusable components were develope

14、d by a third party with no knowledge of internal design standards.Sub2: The design standard for component interfaces has not been solidified and may not conform to certain existing reusable components.Sub3: Certain reusable components have been implemented in a language that is not supported on that

15、 target environment.Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第16頁，共21頁。17RMMM plan Risk Mitigation, Monitoring and Management for example, Mitigating people turnoverDetermine causes of turnover Once project starts, ensure continuity when people leave Widely disperse information about each developme

16、nt activityDocuments are developed in a timely mannerConduct peer review of all work (at least two persons “up to speed”Assign a backup staff member for every critical technologist.MonitoringGeneral attitude of team members based on project pressuresThe degree to which the team has jelledInterperson

17、al relationships among team membersPotential problems with compensation and benefitsThe availability of jobs within the company and outside it.Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第17頁，共21頁。18Risk Information Sheet (RIS)Tian Wenhong,Software Engineering, Week 7Cutoff: areas within the range of

18、0.7,1 第18頁，共21頁。19Quick Review“知己知彼,百戰(zhàn)不怠.” “If you know yourself and the enemy, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles”. Who is the enemy of software project manager? R Most project managers do it informally and superficially if they do it at all.RMMM pays itself back in many ways (track

19、 and control, confidence etc).Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第19頁，共21頁。20Exercise#130 reusable software components were planned, only 60 percent can be used. Based on historical data, 3 out of 5 components may be not applicable. The average component is 100 LOC and each LOC is about $15.0

20、0.Q: Compute risk exposure in this case. Q2: Make a risk table with RM3 for your project Tian Wenhong, Software Engineering, Week 7第20頁，共21頁。21Exercise#2 (Individual)Assume there are N machines available for students use based on the scheduling policy: each student sends an request q_r, s_r,e_r, n_r where q_r is the request time, s_r is the start time, e_r end time, n_r is the n