GrowthHistory宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)-加州大學(xué)-詹姆斯·布拉

1、CHAPTER 5The Reality of Economic Growth: History and Prospect1QuestionsWhat is modern economic growth?What was the post-1973 productivity slowdown?What were its causes?Is the productivity slowdown now over?Why are some nations so (relatively) rich and other nations so (relatively) poor?2QuestionsWha

2、t policies can make economic growth faster?What are the prospects for successful and rapid economic development in tomorrows world?3Looking Back into Deep TimeUp until 1500, there had been almost zero growth of output per workerAfter 1800, we see large sustained increases in worldwide standards of l

3、ivingpopulation growth acceleratedoutput per capita grew4Table 5.1 - Economic Growth through Deep Time5Figure 5.1 - World Population Growth since 10006Premodern Economic “Growth”Thomas R. Malthusfirst academic professor of economicsintroduced the idea that increases in technology inevitably run into

4、 natural resource scarcityimplies that increases in technology lead to an increase in the size of the population but not to an increase in the standard of living7The End of theMalthusian AgeOver time, the rate of technological progress rose by 1500, it was sufficiently high so that natural resource

5、scarcity could not surpass itsustained increases in the population and the productivity of labor followed8The Demographic TransitionAs material standards of living rise far above subsistence, countries undergo a demographic transitionbirth rates risedeath rates fallbirth rates fall9Figure 5.2 - Styl

6、ized Picture of the Demographic Transition10The Demographic TransitionIn the world today, not all countries have gone through their demographic transitionsNigeria, Iraq, Pakistan, and the Congo are projected to have population growth rates greater than 2% per year over the next generation11Figure 5.

7、3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-201512Figure 5.3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-201513The Industrial RevolutionThe industrial revolution began the era of modern economic growthnew technological leaps revolutionized industries and generated major improvements in living standardsG

8、reat Britain was the center of the industrial revolutionEnglish became the worlds de facto second language14The Industrial RevolutionThe new technologies were not confined to Great Britainspread rapidly to western Europe and the United Statesspread less rapidly to southern and eastern Europe and Jap

9、an15Figure 5.4 - Industrialized Areas of the World, 187016American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973Growth in the second half of the nineteenth century was faster than it had been in the first halfGrowth accelerated further in the early part of the twentieth centurya second wave of industrialization occurr

10、ed from new inventions and innovations17American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973Growth slowed slightly during the Great Depression and World War II1.4 percent per year from 1929 to 1950Growth accelerated from 1950 to 197318Figure 5.5 - U.S. Measured Economic Growth: Real GDP per Worker 1995 Prices,1890-1

11、99519American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973Many economists believe that official estimates of output per worker overstate inflation and understate real economic growth by 1 percent per yearnational income accountants have a hard time valuing the boost to productivity and standards of living generated b

12、y new inventions20American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973Structural changes also occurredlarge drop in the proportion of the labor force working as farmers occurrednew methods of travel were developedlarge number of innovative technologies and business practices were adopted21American Long-Run Growth, 1

13、800-1973The U.S. became the worlds leader (in terms of technology) during the twentieth century becausethe U.S. had an exceptional commitment to educationthe U.S. was the largest market in the worldthe U.S. was extraordinarily rich in natural resources22American Economic Growth Since 1973Between 197

14、3 and 1995 measured output per worker grew at only 0.6 percent per yearThe other major industrial economies in western Europe, Japan and Canada also experienced a slowdown in productivity23Table 5.3 - The Magnitude of the Post-1973 Productivity Slowdown in the G-7 Economies24American Economic Growth

15、 Since 1973Suggested causes of the productivity slowdown includeenvironmental protection measuresincreased problems of economic measurementthe baby boom generationthe tripling of world oil prices in 1973The actual cause of the productivity slowdown remains a mystery25American Economic Growth Since 1

16、973Slower economic growth has made Americans feel much less well off than they had expected that they would befor some workers, the post-1973 productivity slowdown has been accompanied by stagnant or declining real wagesincreased income inequality has also occurred26Figure 5.6 - Measured Real Mean H

17、ousehold Income, by Quintile27American Economic Growth Since 1973Since 1995, productivity growth in the U.S. has accelerated to a pace of 2.1 percent per yearInvestment began rising in 1992business fixed investment grew at almost three times the rate of GDPmuch of the additional investment has gone

18、to purchase computers and related equipment28Modern Economic Growth around the WorldThe industrial core of the world economy experienced a large increase in its level of material productivity and living standards during the nineteenth and twentieth centuriesElsewhere the growth of productivity level

19、s and living standards was slowerThe world has become a more and more unequal place29Figure 5.7 - World Distribution of Income Today, Selected Countries30Figure 5.7 - World Distribution of Income Today, Selected Countries31Modern Economic Growth around the WorldThe U.S. has not been the fastest-grow

20、ing economy in the worlda number of other countries at different levels of industrialization, development, and material productivity a century ago have now convergedtheir current levels of productivity, economic structures, and standards of living are very close to those of the U.S.32Figure 5.8 - Co

21、nvergence among the G-7 Economies: Output per Capita as a Shareof U.S. Level33Modern Economic Growth around the WorldThe economies that have converged belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)group of countries that gave or received aid under the Marshall Plan to hel

22、p rebuild or reconstruct after World War II34Modern Economic Growth around the WorldThe OECD countries adopted a common set of economic policieslarge private sectors free of government regulation of pricesinvestment with its direction determined by profit-seeking businesseslarge social insurance sys

23、tems to redistribute incomegovernments committed to avoiding mass unemployment35Modern Economic Growth around the WorldThe OECD countries ended up with mixed economiesmarkets direct the flow of resourcesgovernments stabilize the economy, provide social-insurance safety nets, and encourage entreprene

24、urship and enterprise36Modern Economic Growth around the WorldAs the OECD countries became richer, they completed their demographic transitionsThe policy emphasis on free enterprise boosted investmentSteady-state capital-output ratios roseDiffusion of technology from the U.S. occurred37Modern Econom

25、ic Growth around the WorldEconomic growth has not been limited to OECD countriessince World War II, several countries in east Asia have experienced stronger growth than has ever been seen anywhere in world historythese successful east Asian countries are somewhat similar to the OECD economies in ter

26、ms of economic policy and structure38Modern Economic Growth around the WorldMany countries have not been so fortunateCountries that have been ruled by communists in the twentieth century have remained poor39Figure 5.9 - The Iron Curtain40Table 5.4 - The Iron Curtain: GDP-per-Capita Levels of Matched

27、 Pairs of Countries41Sources of DivergenceThe principal cause of the large variation in output per worker between countries today are differences in their steady-state capital-output ratiosdifferences in the share of investment in national productdifference in labor force growth42Sources of Divergen

28、ceA second cause of the large variation in output per worker between countries today are differences in the level of educationthe efficiency of labor is highly correlated with the level of educationeducated workers can use modern technologies43Figure 5.10 - GDP-per-Worker Levels and Average Years of

29、 Schooling44Sources of DivergenceAn additional cause of the large variation in output per worker between countries today are differences in access to technologydifficult to measure45Cause and Effect,Effect and CauseHigh population growth and low output per worker go togetherrapid population growth r

30、educes the steady-state capital-output ratiopoor countries have not undergone their demographic transition46Cause and Effect,Effect and CauseOther vicious circles can occurpoor countries will have a high relative price of capitalimplies that poor countries get less investment out of any given effort

31、 at savinggood education is harder to provide in poor countriesSetting the demographic transition in motion will offset these problems47Hopes for ConvergenceThe context of economic “stagnation” and “failure” are relative termsnet national product in Argentina is about three times what it was in 1900

32、net national product in Norway is about nine times what it was in 1900The worlds industrial leaders provide a benchmark of how much better things could have been48Hopes for ConvergenceDifferences in productivity and living standards between national economies should be eroded over time due toworld t

33、rademigrationflows of capitaldeveloping countries entering the demographic transition49Policies for Saving, Investment, and EducationPolicies to boost saving includeensuring that savers get a reasonable rate of return on their savingsminimizing restrictions on entrepreneurshipkeeping inflation lowke

34、eping government deficits to a minimum50Policies for Saving, Investment, and EducationPolicies to boost investment for a given level of savings includewelcoming money from foreign investorsallowing businesses to freely earn and spend foreign exchangereducing tariffs and quotassubsidizing investment

35、and expansion by businesses that successfully compete in world markets51Policies for Saving, Investment, and EducationPromoting universal access to education can provide two important benefitsa better-educated workforce is likely to be more productiveeducated women will likely pursue opportunities o

36、utside the homethe birth rate will likely fallthe demographic transition will occur more quickly52Policies for Technological AdvanceTechnological progress has two componentsscienceresearch and developmentamounts to 3 percent of GDP in the U.S.53Policies for Technological AdvanceBusinesses conduct in

37、vestments in research and development to increase profitResearch and development is a public goodother firms can copy itpatents limit the ability of other firms to do so54Policies for Technological AdvanceGovernments seeking to establish patent laws face a dilemmaif the patent laws are strong, much

38、of the modern technology in the economy will be restricted in useif the patent laws are weak, profits that innovators and inventors can earn will be lowpace of technological improvement will slow55Will Governments Follow Good Policies?The broad experience of growth in developing countries (with the

39、exception of east Asian and OECD countries) has been that governments often wont56Will Governments Follow Good Policies?Typical systems of regulation in developing countries have retarded development byembarking on “prestige” industrialization programs that keep resources from shifting to activities

40、 in which the country had a long-run comparative advantage57Will Governments Follow Good Policies?inducing firms and entrepreneurs to devote their energies to seeking rents by lobbying governments, instead of seeking profits by lowering costscreating systems of regulation and project approval that h

41、ave degenerated into extortion machines for manufacturing bribes for the bureaucrats58Will Governments Follow Good Policies?Neoliberalism describes much of the recent thinking about the proper role of government in economic growththe government has a sphere of core competencies at which it is effect

42、iveadministration of justice, maintenance of macroeconomic stability, provision of social insurance, some infrastructure developmentgovernments should limit role to their core competencies59Chapter SummaryBack before the commercial revolution (before 1500 or so), economic was very slowpopulations grew at a glacial pacethere were no significant increases in standards of living for millennia before 1500humanity was caught in a Malthusian trap60Chapter SummaryThe way out of the Malthusian trap opened