拉丁美洲：墨西哥國(guó)家石油公司的救濟(jì)措施沒有達(dá)到預(yù)期

1、FLASH | LATAM15 February 2019EM ECONOMICSFLASH | LATAM15 February 2019Mexico: PEMEX relief measures fall short of expectationsKEY MESSAGESMexico said on Friday the 2019 extraordinary support for Pemex will be USD4.7bn most of which was already announced.We see this as a step in the right direction a

2、nd believe that the multi-annual tax relief was a much-needed structural measure. Yet, owing to our high expectations we think the package does not offer substantialKEY MESSAGESMexico said on Friday the 2019 extraordinary support for Pemex will be USD4.7bn most of which was already announced.We see

3、this as a step in the right direction and believe that the multi-annual tax relief was a much-needed structural measure. Yet, owing to our high expectations we think the package does not offer substantialrelief.We are concerned about policy measures consistently being reactive and ending short of wh

4、at is needed. Hence, we do not think the measures will lift the veil of uncertainty over the state-owned company.In our view, markets have already priced in an adverse scenario in the short term. We are comfortable receiving rates in the long-end of the TIIE curve through 5y and 10y tenors and holdi

5、ng a long position against theEUR.Mind the risk a potential feedback loop emerging from timid government measures. Todays announcement may be interpreted as a third iteration (the previous two being the 2019 budget and the 28 January tax relief) in less than three months to take Pemex out of the woo

6、ds in terms of short and medium-term pressures and align it with the governments new strategy for the energy sector. By falling short on every measure, the government runs the risk of being perceived as behind the events. It also complicates the task of lifting the veil of uncertainty over Pemexs fi

7、nances and credit rating.TRADE IDEAWe hold the view that despite the higher political uncertainty in Mexico, markets have already priced in an adverse scenario in the short term. We have been seeing premiums across local interest rates and the MXN, in particular.We are also seeing loose global finan

8、cial conditions and low US rates, which support lower rates globally. Additionally, our EM portfolio flows model has been pointing to an improvement in flows.That said, we are comfortable receiving rates in the long-end of the TIIE curve through 5y and 10y tenors and holding a long MXN position agai

9、nst theEUR.Is the effort sufficient, sustainable and satisfactory? Probably not sufficient enough to eliminate the risk of further financial pressure on Pemex. It may be sustainable and could mean a structural change as tax relief for Pemex is welcome and necessary. Yet, we do not think this is sati

10、sfactory, especially for credit rating agencies as the package only provides a marginal change with respect to the current support programmes and uncertainties remain on the new policy guidelines for the energysector.AmountsMXN bn AmountsMXN bn Government Support2019Capitalization251.3of Liabilitypr

11、omissorynotes351.8fiscalrelief15 0.8*4.7107TOTALfrom fueltheft4.7107TOTALSources: Banxico, BNP Paribas. * Source: SCHP, BNP Paribas. Note: *This was calculated with average exchange rate considered by SHCP as the official presentation was still showing the old USD0.6bn figure. HYPERLINK mailto:joel.

12、virgenrojano Joel Virgen Rojano, Mexico Economist | BNP Paribas Securities Corp.Andre Digiacomo, FX & IR Latin America Strategy| Banco BNP Paribas Brasil SA.Please refer to important information and MAR disclosures at the end of this report 1AIMERAIMERThis document has been written by our Strategist

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