全球存儲(chǔ)器市場(chǎng)：資本支出削減對(duì)供應(yīng)的影 響以及與前一個(gè)周期的不同之處

1、Global Memory MarketFinding the bottom of the cycle: Impact on supply from capex cuts, and whats different vs the previous cycleWe are updating our Global Memory Model post 4Q18 results, revised capex and shipment growth guidance and our outlook for memory pricing based upcoming supply and demand. W

2、e expect the memory market to reach US$111bn in 2019 (27% annual decline after 100%+ growth in the last two years) which includes a 30% reduction for DRAM and 23% reduction for NAND. Given rising inventory at memory makers and weak end-demand outlook, expect 40% price correction and 45% NAND price c

3、orrection in 2019.Capex cuts dont impact 2019 supply: Given the two-year lag between capex cuts and actual impact on growth, look at the three-year average capex trend to assess upcoming growth. With a meaningful capex hike in 2017/2018 and still-high capex levels in 2019, expect overall three-year

4、moving average capex to remain high throughout our forecasting period. Hence, do not expect any meaningful slowdown in production output despite recent capex cut announcements by all major DRAMmakers.Prevailing oversupply likely to continue: Our updated model indicates that overall demand growth wil

5、l be 12% Y/Y in 2019 vs. growth 18%, that the growth rate in all major applications is likely to along with a destocking in 1H19 and an inventory sell-down on supply. Hence, we conclude that oversupply will persist throughout 2019 unless there is any meaningful upside to key demand drivers such as s

6、erver andsmartphone.Inventory destocking throughout 2019: Given the lack of any incremental demand from server following significant order cuts from multiple hyper- scalers toward 2018-end, hear that memory makers are stacking up without undertaking the back-end process to minimize reporting invento

7、ry level. We think DRAM makers are likely to clear out their stock at a discount price in return for a big-volume purchase, implying ongoing weak DRAMprices.Comparison with the 2016 cycle: Some people believe that capex cuts signal the bottom in the and the current cycle resembles the last downturn

8、(15-16) when companies guided capex cuts in 1Q16 results happened during 2Q16), and the bottomed in 2Q16. However, shipment growth actually accelerated in despite capex cut Also, 2H16 recovery was driven server demand (an initial stage DC investment) and inventory restocking in China smartphone make

9、rs. However, the demand and inventory situation in 2019 is totally different from that of 2016 and there have also been meaningful capex hikes in the last twoyears.Where is the bottom for DRAM and NAND? Our revised model suggests that the DRAM market will remain a downturn until 1Q20, with a moderat

10、e recovery in 2Q20 assuming that all inventory is digested in 2019. expect the market to begin to grow in 3Q19 on the back price elasticity, since expect NAND prices to fall by 60% from their peak by 2Q19, whichshouldaccelerateSSDadoptionandcontentgrowthinmajorapplications.2H19 recovery appears dist

11、ant: share price recovery for memory names is attributable to (1) positive reaction to WFE capex-cut announcements,(2) an expected V-shaped recovery in 2H19, and (3) undemanding valuation s post meaningful share price corrections. Given the extended inventory destocking cycle, lackluster end-demand

12、outlook and lack of visibility for shipments/ASP, we think demand recovery is unlikely in the foreseeable future.Asia Pacific Equity Research07 February 2019Technology - Semiconductors JJ Park AC(82-2) 758-5717 HYPERLINK mailto:jj.park jj.parkBloomberg JPMA PARK J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Lim

13、ited, Seoul BranchVaibhav Arya(91-22) 6157-3652 HYPERLINK mailto:vaibhav.arya vaibhav.aryaJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedHisashi Moriyama(81-3) 6736-8601 HYPERLINK mailto:hisashi.moriyama hisashi.moriyama Bloomberg JPMA MORIYAMA JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Harlan Sur(1-415) 315-6700 HYPERLI

14、NK mailto:harlan.sur harlan.surBloomberg JPMA SUR J.P. Morgan Securities LLCBill Peterson(1-415)315-6766 HYPERLINK mailto:bill.peterson bill.petersonJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCDRAM/NAND market growth rates (%)Source: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.See page 25 for analyst certification and important disc

15、losures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgandoesand seekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatmay a of the of as a HYPERLINK / Global memory model: RevisionsAfter making revisions to our key assumptions, we forecast the DRAM market in 2

16、019 to account for US$69bn, which implies a stronger than expected shrink of 30% driven by price declines amidst much weaker than expected demand in both smartphone and especially server. We are relatively more positive on NANDdemand outlook, however we think a supply glut will still result in steep

17、 NAND ASP decline (45%) causing a market shrink of 23%. For 2020, we expect NAND market to resume 15% Y/Y growth while DRAM market will by a further 7%.Our channel checks confirmed meaningful channel inventory for memory manufacturers and OEMs which gives us confidence about an inventory destocking

18、cycle in 1H19 at least and the destocking cycle could continue throughout 2019 given rising inventory at DRAM manufacturers and weak-end demand.Even though most memory makers guided for a demand recovery from 2H19 onwards, we think that their visibility for end-demand is limited because they are mos

19、tly interacting with OEMs (direct business with enterprise forms a small portion). Instead we believe that the destocking will likely continue throughout 2019.We have noticed a series of earnings downgrades for memory makers since late-2018, but we still believe the market underestimates the extent

20、of declines inmemoryprices and bit shipments in the downturn cycle since memory makers wont be able to sell production outputs as well as carry-over inventory due to weakdemand.On a full year basis for 2019, we forecast DRAM and NAND prices to decline 40% Y/Y and 45% Y/Y followed by another decline

21、of 21% Y/Y and 17% Y/Y for DRAM and NAND, respectively in 2020.Figure 1: Global memory market (DRAM + NAND) size and YoY change trend$ (bn), %Source: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.Figure 2: DRAM and NAND market size (2014-20E)$(bn)9973997369644745414754482829324210080604020-Figure 3: DRAM and NAND mar

22、ket growth rates (2014-20E)%20142015201620172018E2019E2020EDRAMNANDSource: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.DRAMSource: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.Supply: As memory makers toned down their capacity growth guidance in expectation of weak end-demand, we have revised down our forecasts for 2019/20 shipment

23、s by 9%. We like to highlight that in an inventory destocking cycle the shipment growth would still be higher than the production growth. We still pencil in 18%/18% bit growth in 2019/20, majority of which comes from tech-migration and sell-down in carry-over inventory from 4Q18.Demand: Weve revised

24、 down our consumption estimates by 10%/11% for 2019/20 to reflect both weaker volumes (for CE: smartphones/NBPC and Enterprise: Servers) and weaker content growth as BOM pressures remain high for set makers/OEMs affected by trade-tariffs and increased costs of relocation.Negative adjustments to serv

25、er density are made on account of a delayed upgrade cycle due to Intel Whitley (new platform) launch getting pushed into 2020, lower capex in hyperscale, falling UTRs at Chinese datacenters and macro-overhangs. Although dual-cam adoption, high-res screens, on-device AI/AR remains structural growth a

26、reas, overall smartphone contents get negatively impacted from a lower-mix of high-end segment.ASP: As inventory destocking happens throughout 2019 combined with weak incremental demand, we have revised down our ASP assumptions for 2019/20 by 14%/9% respectively. We like to remind that although abso

27、lute correction of 40% looks high, were coming off a meaningfully high base after 48%/20% sequential ASP growth in 17/18.NANDSupply: We have made a 5%/4% downward revision to NAND supply estimates in 2019/20, as memory makers guided for adjusting production growth amidst prolonged NAND price decline

28、. However, since it continues to be a positive operating margin business and 3D yields have stabilized even for higher layer counts (64L) as well as capex hike in the last two years, we model a healthy 37%/39% supply growth in 2019/20, which keeps the market in an oversupplied situation.Demand: We h

29、ave adjusted NAND consumption forecasts down slightly by 5%/4% for 2019/20. Accounting for the price elasticity of NAND demand, we revised up SSD shipments to reflect steep HDD replacement for client/enterprise applications. However content growth in SSDs takes a hit amidst NBPC CPU shortage and lac

30、k of platform upgrade for enterprise servers. Given relaxed pricing, we also reflectupside to content growth assumption in smartphones (both high/mid-end),however weak shipments pressurize the demand in thiscase.Given weak end-demand and inventory destocking cycle, we also made downward adjustments

31、(19/20 ASPs 12% down) to reflect oversupply situation. This implies a 45%/17% price decline in 2019/20 following a 11% correction in 2018. Going forward, we are more constructive on NAND demand recovery and have higher visibility of price stabilization in2020.Table 1: J.P. Morgan Global Memory Model

32、: Summary of changesRevisedPriorChange (%)20182019E2020E20182019E2020E20182019E2020EMemory revenue (US$, bn)153.4110.8112.2159.7140.6135.7-4%-21%-17%DRAM revenue99.168.964.0105.088.778.9-6%-22%-19%NAND revenue54.341.948.254.751.956.8-1%-19%-15%Memory price (US$)DRAM ASP (2Gb.)1.921.150.911.941.340.9

33、9-1%-14%-9%NAND ASP (64Gb.)1.901.201.02%-12%-12%Memory Consumption (mn)DRAM shipments (2Gb.)51,59659,95070,61854,24366,28979,440-5%-10%-11%NAND shipments (64Gb.)28,06039,48454,74929,54841,72557,294-5%-5%-4%Shipments (mn)Desktops99100991009998-1%1%1%Notebooks1621621621601611611%0%0%Servers12131413131

34、4-4%-1%-3%Smartphones1,5591,4681,4771,5851,6191,678-2%-9%-12%Tablets137139139146138131-6%0%6%SSDs2192703142102492974%8%6%Average DRAM memory (MB)Desktops5,2505,6696,3005,2155,6986,3501%-1%-1%Notebooks6,1916,6527,4776,1016,6757,4181%0%1%Servers255,183292,102374,899264,485334,580428,912-4%-13%-13%Smar

35、tphones2,6722,9593,4932,6292,9663,6602%0%-5%Tablets2,8583,1563,7692,9433,3993,791-3%-7%-1%Average NAND memory (MB)SSDs411,424493,080647,240439,255542,861706,007-6%-9%-8%Smartphones51,49970,35596,34251,72366,74488,2760%5%9%Tablets64,44085,195111,03266,38792,023103,290-3%-7%7%Supply assumptionsDRAM (2

36、Gbe., M)51,88461,09172,20754,87466,91379,779-5%-9%-9%NAND (64Gbe., M)29,29640,27455,97030,67642,57458,371-4%-5%-4%Memory capex (US$, mn)54,35444,33746,05657,75460,709-6%-27%n/aDRAM25,90119,31922,35627,49328,118-6%-31%n/aNAND28,45325,01823,70030,26132,591-6%-23%n/aSource: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.

37、Figure 4: Quarterly market revenue comparison: DRAM vs. NAND$(bn)2923171151Q144Q143Q152Q161Q174Q173Q182Q19E 1Q20E 4Q20ENAND RevenueDRAM RevenueSource: WSTS, J.P. Morgan estimates.Spending on WFE declines but overall capex healthyPost 4Q company guidance, we note a sequential decline in industry cape

38、x in 2019 on account of a) memory-makers adjusting capital spending given reduced bit shipment outlook and b) More cuts to WFE while aggregate capex remains relatively high due to infrastructure investment. The annual capex should come aroundUS$44bn, which breaks down into US$19bn capex for DRAM (do

39、wn 25%Y/Y) and US$25bn capex for NAND (down 12% Y/Y).Although DRAM is entering a downturn cycle, capex is a long-term commitment (at least 5 years to 10 years) and all DRAM companies are generating extremely high margins (mid-50%+ OPM). We do recognize a change in the capital spending mix for infras

40、tructure and WFE (equipment). For Samsung we estimate WFE as a % of total capex will decline to 50% in 2019 (vs 70%+ in 2018) and for SK hynix as well, WFE capex declines by 40% (much severe than a 15% decline to overall capex).At the company level, we expect Samsungs DRAM capex to decline by 23%Y/Y

41、 but still remain at W10trn level (as it spends for Pyungtaek line no. 2 and 1Ynm transition) while NAND capex is likely to decline by 28% to W9trn, from a low- level in 2018. SK hynix capex for both the memories declines by high-teen% to W13.5trn (50:50 split for DRAM and NAND) on our estimates. Mi

42、cron also cut its memory capex by 23% Y/Y to US$6bn while maintaining a 50:50 split for DRAM-NAND.Figure 5: DRAM capex trend$ (bn), %105%7 %105%7 %16%30%-3%1 %-27%-17%-25%13111971462226614252015105-2012201420162018DRAMcapexyoy (%)Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.175%125%75%25%-25%-75%Figu

43、re 6: NAND capex trend93%44%93%44%29%5%-9%-6%-3%-12%-5%2825888111529353025201510502012201420162018NANDcapexyoy(%)Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%We also like to highlight that the capital intensity for DRAM (i.e. the ratio of annual capex to annual revenue) grow

44、s into 2019/20 to 28%/35% given the revenue decline (on back of meaningful ASP fall) is much steeper than the capex required for supporting ongoing tech-migrations.We noted a similar 30% capex intensity near the 2015-16 period, however it is reasonable to assume a higher intensity for upcoming years

45、 given an increasing difficulty in node-migration.Figure 7: DRAM Capital Intensity trends (2009-20E)Capex, Capex/Rev %-RHS30,00035%40%21%28% 27%22%19%29% 30%27%20%26%28%30%20%10%-0%200920112013201520172019EDRAM capex (US$, M)Capital intensity(%)Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimatesChange in cu

46、rrent capex only impacts future supplyAs highlighted above memory capex is a long-term commitment and current year capital spending only impacts the supply growth after 2 years (typical lag duration to build cleanroom, install equipment and begin mass production). Hence, we plot the following 3-year

47、 moving average trend for capex (grey-bars) to smooth-out the capex trend and estimate the impact of upcoming supply growth.While the annual capex goes down steeply by 25% in 2019, the moving average trend shows a steady growth of approx. 16%, which in our opinion should imply ongoing supply growth

48、for the year (even though the capacity expansion slows down). Of note, we assume 18%/18% shipment growth in 2019/20Figure 8: Capex trendActual versus Moving averagesUSDbn25% down16% up25% down16% up252015105020062008201020122014201620182020EDRAM capex(USDbn)Simple Moving avg3yr-CapexSource: J.P. Mor

49、gan memory model, Industry dataUpdate on fab expansion plansBased on the latest capex cut announcements and company guidance, we have adjusted our wafer growth assumptions and now expect average global DRAM/NAND capacity to register muted growth at 5%/6% respectively.For DRAM, as focus shifts on tec

50、h-migration, we see a corresponding bump in implied-bit growth numbers for 2019 (approx. 12%). For NAND, implied bit growth remains at 30% after a historically high level in 2018 (due to massive 2D- 3D NAND shift).DRAM:SECs total DRAM capacity addition in 2019 is expected to be 15Kwspm, which includ

51、es the wafers lost from tech migration. Additional wafers come from an incremental 15Kwspm capacity conversion at Line 16. Theres also an additional potential of 40Kwspm capacity for Pyeongtaek 2nd floor (which remains unlikely and depends on demand growth). SK hynix is expected to add approx. 25k w

52、spm capacity in 2019 mostly in the form of incremental 40kwspm wafers at Wuxi No. 2.Micron has guided for no additional wafers and will only focus on supply growth from 10nm migration. NTC (Nanya Tech)s plans for capacity expansion to 73k wpm by 2019-end (from 65kwpm at 2018-end) remain on track as

53、the company guided for required equipment move-in to complete by 1H19.NAND:SEC is expected to add an additional 50K wspm capacity at the 2nd floor at Pyeongtaek in 2019 (following a 40K ramp-up in 2018). It also targets to commence equipment installation by 2019-end but mass production will only beg

54、in from early- 2020 onwards. SK hynix NAND flash capacity remains almost flattish (10-15k additional wafers at M15) but the company plans to construct 2 Flash fab at M16 (production 2020) and a new fab at Yong-In for 2020.Micron will be spending to upgrade its two existing NAND Flash fabs in Singapo

55、re with a planned construction of a third fab. Toshibas Fab 6 at Yokkaichi (Japan) is expected to commence production in 1H19. The company also announced a next Flash memory fab at Kitakami, which began construction in 2H18. Chinas YMTC also completed equipment move-in in 2019 and began production o

56、f 32-layer NAND in small volumes.Figure 9: DRAM industry capacity growth overall (14-20E)12” eq. 000 wspm8%5%8%5%1%2%3%2%-5%1,1231,0681,0891,1061,1441,2051,2001,050900201420152016201720182019E TotalDRAMcapacityGrowth(%)Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.8%4%0%Figure 10: NAND industry capaci

57、ty growth overall (14-20E)12” eq. 000 wspm25%18%25%18%11%6%6%9%0%1,1331,3361,4801,5641,5611,6491,7961,5001,2501,000750500201420152016201720182019E TotalNANDcapacityGrowth(%)Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.30%20%10%0%-10%DRAM marketAs per revised estimates we model DRAM market to shrink b

58、y 30% in 2019 which factors a supply/demand growth of 18%/12% Y/Y respectively driving a strong ASP decline of 40% Y/Y. We expect the market resumes growth on a Y/Y basis in 2020 as price decline softens to 20% while demand growth resumes at high-teen %Y/Y.Given the nature of sequential monthly pric

59、ing correction, we see that although monthly decline starts slowing down in Q2, the price decline on a Q/Q basis in Q2 (20%) should be more severe than Q1 (18%). We see the Y/Y quarterly revenue trend bottoming out in 3Q19 followed by recovery amidst moderating ASPdeclines.Figure 11: DRAM market rev

60、enue and ASP yoy change (Annual)$ (bn), %4%3%4%3%-16%- %- %69-403534414547647320%9910060%Figure 12: DRAM market revenue and yoy change (Quarterly)$ (bn), %3060% 52%100%258030%20600%4015-30%201041%4%-17%-33%-41%-27%-18% -7%-2% 0%60%20%-20%-201320152017DRAMmarketASP yoy-60%51Q184Q183Q19E2Q20EDRAMreven