美國能源業(yè)2020年展望：基本面強勁

1、Alt Energy: 2020 OutlookStrong Fundamentals: Top Picks are FSLR, SEDG, and NOVANorth America Equity Research11 December 2019We remain constructive regarding Alt Energy fundamentals heading into the new decade. Alt Energy stocks under coverage have outperformed in 2019 YTD (up 58% on average vs SP500

2、 up 25%), owing to strong global demand, stable ASPs, and mostly strong execution. Our top picks into 2020 are Overweight-rated FSLR, SEDG, and NOVA. Heres a summary of what we look for in 2020.More for less. We look for at-trend $300 billion of investment in 2020 to fund over 200GWs wind and solar

3、installations, up 10%/ globally. Adoption is spurred falling cost/watt wind, solar and storage driven scale and innovation. Gigawatt growth will center on China, India and emergingmarkets.De-carbonization, decentralization and digitization. two-thirds investment in the power sector is going to modul

4、ar, more decentralized, zero- carbon generating assets. Whereas was seen as uniquely vulnerable to substitution, low-cost renewables-plus-storage now puts gas at risktoo.All aboard. provisions to rate-base solar and wind investments, utilities have joined corporates, C&I and residential customers as

5、 direct investors in renewables. NextEras $50bn investment program, LADWPs 400MW Eland project, ERCOTs pivot to solar provide sign-posts for otherutilities.Rooftop solar sweet-spot. We look for mid-teens customer growth, 35% MW growth in rooftop solar in 2020, driven by lower cost/watt, low interest

6、 rates, the ITC-safe harbor, and Californias new-building codes. PG&E outages could spur solar-plus-storage distributed generation solutions,generally.Green win-win in U.S. elections? Renewables investment and job-creation could drive bipartisan support for extending tax credits, and could shift fav

7、orably if Democrats win the Senate, but 201/301 tariffs are a solarheadwind.The big things. Battery storage ramps dramatically in 2020, so will hype-cycle for green-gas Hydrogen, spanning power and transportation sectors. Hydrogen news could drive investor interest in Fuel Cell technology again. of

8、solar panels will be mono, and bi-facial goes parabolic. SiC adoption in EVs, BESS and solar ramps. Enhanced Geothermal Systems on thehorizonGrid parity in China. Alan Hon, Asia-based Utilities analyst, sees renewables strength in China in 2020 (see page HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 18), with solar reachi

9、ng grid parity. Strong demandinChinatypicallyleadstostableindustrypricingandmargins,globally.First Solar. Thin-film solar panels are sold-out through 2020; ramping Series 6 production leads to higher margins, and potential cost/energy-density intersect with commoditysolar.SolarEdge. Solar inverter m

10、anufacturer is unit-driven beneficiary strong rooftop adoption, with adjacent opportunities in storage and large-scalesystems.Sunnova. Leading residential solar company scales into EBITDA profitability using unique go-to-market strategy in theU.S.IT Hardware, Alternative Energy Paul Coster, CFA AC(1

11、-212) 622-6425 HYPERLINK mailto:paul.coster paul.costerBloomberg JPMA COSTER Mark Strouse, CFA(1-212) 622-8244 HYPERLINK mailto:mark.w.strouse mark.w.strousePaul JChung(1-212)622-5552 HYPERLINK mailto:paul.j.chung paul.j.chungJ.P. Morgan SecuritiesLLCPlease refer to J.P. MorgansESG research webpage

12、here.See page 70 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Invest

13、ors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Equity Ratings and Price TargetsCompanyTickerMkt Cap ($ mn)Price ($) Rati Curng PrevCur Price End Dateget PrevEnd DateBloom EnergyBE US841.815.19OWn/c12.00Dec-20n/cn/cCanadian SolarCSIQ US1,174.9

14、519.31Nn/c22.00Dec-20n/cn/cEnphase EnergyENPH US2,933.3924.02OWn/c30.00Dec-20n/cn/cFirst Solar, IncFSLR US5,573.7352.47OWn/c82.00Dec-20n/cn/cHannon ArmstrongHASI US1,947.9229.68OWn/c33.00Dec-20n/cn/cOrmat TechnologiesORA US3,884.4475.67Nn/c74.00Dec-20n/cn/cSolarEdge TechnologiesSEDG US4,274.2081.48O

15、Wn/c112.00Dec-20n/cn/cSunnovaNOVA US821.869.59OWn/c18.00Dec-20n/cn/cSunPower CorporationSPWR US1,026.387.20Nn/c12.00Dec-20n/cn/cTerraForm Power, Inc.TERP US3,208.4415.34Nn/c17.00Dec-20n/cn/cTPI CompositesTPIC US580.7216.53OWn/c26.00Dec-20n/cn/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

16、n/c = no change. All prices as of 10 Dec 19.Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 2020 Top Picks4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 AlternativeEnergyCoverage4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Stock Coverage5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 StockPerformance5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 2020 AlternativeEnergy Outlook9 HYPERLINK l _b

17、ookmark5 Summary9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Long Term AltEnergyOutlook11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 China Outlook18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Other2020 Expectations20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 US residential solar likelytosurge20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Energy Storage becomes viable inmoremarkets21 HYPERLINK l

18、_bookmark13 ERCOT PivotstoRenewables22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 U.S. Renewables Survive theElectionCycle25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 NextUp:Hydrogen28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Hydrogen fueledenergytransition?30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Corporate renewables demand should continuetosurge32 HYPERLINK l _boo

19、kmark20 Enhanced Geothermal Systems ontheHorizon33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 BloomEnergy35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Canadian Solar37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Enphase Energy39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 FirstSolar,Inc41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 HannonArmstrong43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Ormat Technologies45 H

20、YPERLINK l _bookmark28 SolarEdge Technologies48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 Sunnova50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 SunPower Corporation52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 TerraFormPower,Inc.54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 TPI Composites562020 Top PicksFor J.P. Morgans latest report on ESG investing, see here.Our top picks

21、 for 2020 are FSLR, SEDG, and NOVA, all Overweight-rated.First Solar (FSLR/OW/AFL). We believe that the company is heading toward a strong earnings inflection on the back of the Series 6 ramp that is not fully-priced into the stock, and which could deliver EPS upside in 2020, relative to current exp

22、ectations. We have high conviction that the stock can outperform if the 4Q19 Series 6-related earnings-surge plays out as forecast, representing a more normalized earnings power for the company, and potential for massive upside to consensus. Our Dec 20 price target is $82.SolarEdge (SEDG/OW/Strouse)

23、. SEDG has outperformed YTD following record results, and we believe further gains are likely owing to accelerating earnings growth, share gains for the MLPE industry vs traditional string-inverters, new product introductions, and further clarity regarding the companys non-solar business strategy. D

24、espite the outperformance, valuation still remains compelling, in our view, with the stock trading at a significant discount to growth. Our Dec20 price targetis$112.Sunnova (NOVA/OW). Surging into the leadership ranks of US residential solar, Sunnova is differentiated by a unique go-to-market strate

25、gy, it is growing faster than its nearest peers, and the stock should appeal to a broader base of investors owing to attractive EBITDA margins and positive cash flow from operations. NOVA, with its SunSafe storage product, also should be well positioned for a boost from the PG&E electric grid outage

26、s. Our Dec20 price target is $18.Alternative Energy CoverageOur Top picks for 2020 are Overweight-Rated First Solar (FSLR), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), and Sunnova (NOVA). We also have Overweight ratings on Bloom Energy (BE), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Hannon Armstrong (HASI), and TPI Composites (TPI

27、C).Stock CoverageTable 1: J.P. Morgan Ratings and PriceTargets CompanyTickerAnalystRatingYE20PTBloom EnergyBECosterOverweight$12.00Canadian SolarCSIQStrouseNeutral$22.00Enphase EnergyENPHStrouseOverweight$30.00First SolarFSLRCosterOverweight$82.00Hannon ArmstrongHASIStrouseOverweight$33.00Ormat Tech

28、nologiesORACosterNeutral$74.00SolarEdge TechnologiesSEDGStrouseOverweight$112.00SunnovaNOVACosterOverweight$18.00SunPowerSPWRStrouseNeutral$12.00TerraForm PowerTERPStrouseNeutral$17.00 TPICompositesTPICCosterOverweight$26.00Source: J.P. Morgan.Stock PerformanceAlt Energy Stocks under coverage have p

29、osted mostly positive returns YTD, outperforming theS&P500.Figure 1: Covered Solar Stock Indexed Performance, YTDSource: Bloomberg, J.P .Morgan.Year-on-year returns have also outperformed the SP500, on average.Figure 2: Stocks Under Coverage, Indexed Y/Y PerformanceSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.Fig

30、ure 3: YTD Stock Performance for Select Alternative Energy Stocks407.8%132.1%105.1%98.2%407.8%132.1%105.1%98.2%78.4%62.8%61.6%54.1%53.3%53.8%45.7%44.9%44.3%39.8%35.2%34.8%34.7%31.9%27.4%25.9%23.6%21.8%-16.1%-32.8%-46.3%-48.0%-98.8%Jinko LONGi Green EnergyTechnologyHannon AdvancedEnergyIndustriesOrma

31、tTechnologiesTerraFormPowerCanadian S&P500First Guodian Technology&EnvironmentGCL-Poly EnergyHoldingsSenvionSA-100.0%0.0%100.0%200.0%300.0%400.0%500.0% 600.0%700.0%Source: Bloomberg.Trading multiples for selected comparable companiesFigure 4: Comp TableTrading multiples for selected comparable compa

32、nies$ in millions, except per share data and as indicatedNameTickerJPM Rating AnalystPriceMkt CapEV P/E EV / EV / CY19ECY20ECY19ECY20ECY19ECY20EChina-based Solar DevCos Canadian SolarCSIQNeutralStrouse19.31$1,148$2,75710.8x6.4x0.9x0.7x8.9x5.9xJinko SolarJKSNCN/A20.28$898$3,5027.4x4.6x0.8x0.7x9.6x7.9

33、xLONGi Green Energy601012 CHOverweightHon25.05$13,433$13,351nmnm3.0 x2.0 x13.2x10.5xChina Solar DevCos Mean9.1x5.5x1.6x1.1x10.6x8.1xChina Solar DevCos Median9.1x5.5x0.9x0.7x9.6x7.9xNorth American-based Solar First SolarOverweightCoster52.47$5,531$4,62422.6x14.6x1.3x1.4x8.9x6.6xSunPowerSPWRNeutralStr

34、ouse7.20$1,209$2,022nm49.0 x1.0 x1.0 x19.0 x13.0 xNorth Ame rican Solar DevCos Mean22.6xnm1.2x1.2x13.9x9.8xNorth Ame rican Solar DevCos Median22.6xnm1.2x1.2x13.9x9.8xInvertersSolarEdgeSEDGOverweightStrouse81.48$3,961$3,59520.9x17.6x2.5x2.2x13.5x11.7xEnphaseEnergyENPHOverweightStrouse24.02$2,940$2,85

35、427.3x25.7x4.6x3.7x23.0 x17.9xABB Ltd.ABBUnderweightWilli22.68$49,174$57,23423.4x20.1x2.0 x2.0 x16.0 x14.3xSMA SolarTechnologyAGS92GRNCN/A27.78$1,235$754nmnm0.8x0.7x15.5x10.1xInverters Mean23.8x21.1x2.5x2.1x17.0 x13.5xInverters Median23.4x20.1x2.3x2.1x15.8x13.0 xYieldCo/Total Return PowerNeutralStro

36、use15.34$3,483$10,426nm59.2xnm9.4x13.7x13.0 xHannonArmstrongHASIOverweightStrouse29.68$1,927$3,10021.4x20.3xnmnmnmnmBrookfieldRenewablePartnersBEPNCN/A63.89$14,896$34,638nmnmnmnm20.3x18.9xPatternEnergyPEGINeutralTurnure27.22$2,674$6,251nm56.2xnmnm16.1x13.6xNextEraEnergyPartnersNEPNeutralTurnure51.94

37、$3,159$11,443nm27.2xnm7.8x10.0 x8.6xAtlantica YieldAYNCN/A25.57$2,563$7,48028.9x18.3x6.7x6.2x8.8x7.9xYieldCo Mean25.1x36.2x6.7x7.8x13.8x12.4xYieldCo Median25.1x27.2x6.7x7.8x13.7x13.0 xSolar IPPNOVAOverweightCoster9.59$805$2,097nmnmnmnm26.9x18.7xSunrunNCN/A13.26$1,565$3,77435.5x17.3x4.5x4.2xnm24.4xSo

38、lar IPP Meannm17.3x4.5x4.2x26.9x21.5xSolar IPP Mediannm17.3x4.5x4.2x26.9x21.5xAsia-based Renewables IPPChinaLongyuan916HKOverweightHon4.63$4,754$19,10755.8x49.0 x4.5x4.2x7.0 x6.5xHuanengRenewables958HKOverweightHon3.01$4,064$12,32851.8x47.3x6.2x5.6x7.0 x6.4xChinaDatangRenewables1798HKNeutralHon0.79$

39、734$9,20732.6x26.5x6.8x6.2x7.8x7.1xAsia-based Renewabless IPP Mean46.7x40.9x5.8x5.3x7.3x6.6xAsia-based Renewabless IPP Median51.8x47.3x6.2x5.6x7.0 x6.5xWind OEMsVestasVWS DCUnderweightGupta657.20$19,392$18,140nmnm1.3x1.2x10.5x8.8xSiemensGamesaSGRE SMUnderweightGupta14.32$10,814$10,23320.2x17.7x0.8x0

40、.8x7.5x8.2xGRNCN/A12.35$1,461$1,875nm29.4x0.5x0.4x11.7x7.5xWind OEM Mean20.2x23.6x0.7x0.6x9.6x7.8xWind OEM Median20.2x23.6x0.7x0.6x9.6x7.8xOverall Mean27.6x28.1x2.8x3.2x13.1x11.2xOverall Median23.4x23.0 x2.0 x2.0 x11.7x9.4xSource: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg. Prices as of 12/10/19 close.2020 Alternative

41、Energy OutlookSummary2019 was another encouraging year for renewable energy industries, globally, with189GW of wind and solar new-build, up about 20% y/y and another record for the industry. As usual, there were setbacks, most notably significantly lower than forecast solar installations in China ow

42、ing to timing of government approvals and as that market adjusts to subsidized and unsubsidized project bidding. The global grid continues to de-carbonize and decentralize, owing to the falling unit-cost of renewable energy resources, and the outlook for China in 2020 looks more robust (see page HYP

43、ERLINK l _bookmark8 18). BNEF forecasts about $290 billion of investment in wind and solar in 2019-2020 versus only about $200 billion of investment in coal and gas generating capacity.Figure 5: Estimated Cumulate Investment in new Capacity 2019-2020, Global$ in billionsSource: BNEF, J.P. Morgan.Win

44、d and solar continue to go in-the-money in more regions, largely owing to global economies of scale, supply-chain optimization and technical innovation, hurried along by a demand-side shift to auction-based pricing. Wind and solar are emerging in many cases as the lowest cost source of energy for en

45、d-customers, including utilities, IPPs, corporates, and homeowners, and as the unit-cost of energy-storage declines (esp. lithium batteries), it seems clear that renewables+storage will present the end customer with both low-cost energy and low-cost capacity as early as themid-2020s, enabling the wh

46、olesale dispatch of zero carbon electricity. Take a look at the ERCOT case study, on page HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 22 for a sense of where things are heading.This shift to a zero-carbon and more decentralized grid, combined with the electrification of transportation systems, will likely be enormously

47、 disruptive to the fossil-fuel industry over coming decades, but investors (and corporates) will struggle to find clean energy investments that hedge against the relative and absolute decline in carbon-based energy systems. Wind and solar use no fuel; the assets are generally near zero-touch for 10-

48、20 years, are often co-located with their end-use, and therefore independent of T&D infrastructure and largely owned and operated by the end-customer. The disruption will extend to emerging economies (the main sourceof load-growth for the grid) that need cheap and clean energy and are beginning to s

49、ee the merits of energy independence that originates in tapping the energy of thesunand the wind, rather than dependence on geographically unevenly distributed carbon reserves.In short, we believe 2020 will be much like 2019, and every year since 2014, when the global investment in renewables approa

50、ched $300 billion and exceeded investment in conventional energy grid resources for the first time. There will likely be more policy set-backs as well as continued withdrawal of subsidies around the world, but we believe Wind and Solar GW deployments should top 200GWs in 2020, up 10% y/y to another

51、record high, largely owing to growth in demand in emerging markets, driven by ongoing cost/watt decline in the 5 -10% range. This is consistent with the long-term trend, and the long-term outlook (see page HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 11).Investing in this space is, however, very challenging for public eq

52、uity investors. Upstream solar (and wind to a lesser extent) manufacturing is highly competitive, commoditized, characterized by race-to-the bottom pricing, low margins and low ROEs, and many of the companies have weak business models. On the other hand, the downstream industry, operating wind and s

53、olar farms that produce bond-like cash flows, is largely inaccessible to the public equity investor (Overweight-rated HASI and Neutral-rated TERP, aside), with value aggregating to owners across a range of verticals. In this context, investors have to be nimble and focus on niche names. Our top pick

54、s for 2020 are FSLR, SEDG, and NOVA.Long Term Alt Energy OutlookBNEFs New Energy Outlook 2019 forecasts a massive change in the power sector energy mix over the next 32 years. BNEF looks for 50% of global electricity to be generated by wind and solar by 2050. We take a quick look at this long-term f

55、orecast and focus on the United States, where we note that regulators, utilities, corporates and homeowners appear to be leaning into this future reality, making decisions today that might accelerate the transition to zero carbon.Table 2: BNEF 50 By 50 Outlook SummarizedSectors2050 OutlookDriversTot

56、al Demand and Generating CapacityCapacity triples and TWh demand increases 60% to 42TWh by 2050 (base case)Global grid goes from 2/3rds fossil-based to 2/3rds zero carbon by 2050, Wind and Solar representing 50%Electrification of transportation and home heating increases demand by 25% over base-case

57、.Wind and solar have lower capacity factors.OECD demand grows at just 0.4% CAGR, buoyed by EVsPopulation and GDP growth drive 100% increase in demand by 2050 in developing nations (A/C demand doubles in emerging economies).Gas1,263GWs combined-cycle gas turbines, up 37%Driven by aggregate increase i

58、n demand and by coal replacements.Gas consumption grows 0.5% CAGR, supporting backup and flexibility, less focused on bulk electricity.Gas Peaker1.225GWs of peaker capacity deployed, up 350%Dedicated peakers provide backup for renewable generationCoalPeaks globally in 2026 then declines by 2018 leve

59、ls to just of global electricitygenerationChina, India continue to invest through the 2020s owing toramping electricity demand.WindGrows to 26% of global electricity generation, from5% today.Levelized cost of wind to drop 48% by 2050.SolarGrows to 22% of global electricity generation from2% today.Le

60、velized of utility-scale PV Solar falls 60% by 2050.Hydro27% growth in capacity to 1.5TW in 2050, but declines400bp to 12% of global generation.50% growth in pumped hydro to 215GW.Growth in China, India and sub-Saharan Africa.Pumped hydro used in bulk energy storage but limited by geography and topo