酒花市場(chǎng)快訊課件

1、酒花市場(chǎng)快訊課件酒花市場(chǎng)快訊課件World Crop and Acreage 世界酒花產(chǎn)量及種植面積Crop in mt產(chǎn)量（噸）Area in ha面積（公頃）World Crop and Acreage 世界酒花產(chǎn)量World Alpha Acid Balance世界Alpha 酸收支平衡表 2007 is estimatedAlpha 酸總量（噸）-2,000-1,500-10001,5002,00019941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007crop yearalpha acids in m

2、tSurplus / Deficit 種植年度盈余/欠缺World Alpha Acid Balance世界Alp2005 and 2007 World Market Shares2005&2007年度世界酒花市場(chǎng)份額2005 - Area in ha2005 - Alpha in mt2007 - Area in ha2007 - Alpha in mt2007 is estimated2005年度面積（公頃）2005年度甲酸產(chǎn)量（噸）2007年度酒花面積（公頃）2007年度甲酸產(chǎn)量（噸）德國 美國 捷克 英國 中國 其他2005 and 2007 World Market Sha Area

3、 and Crop Result 種植面積及產(chǎn)量10 Review of Growing Conditions in 2007 2007年種植環(huán)境條件回顧 8 Forward Contract Volume 預(yù)售酒花量15 Development of Varieties 品種開發(fā)13Germany 德國 Alpha Acids 甲酸12 Area and Crop Result 種植面積及產(chǎn)Germany - Temperature (average)德國平均氣溫表2 3 4 5 6 7 8Germany - Temperature (averageGermany - Precipitati

4、on (mm/m2)德國降雨量（毫米/)2 3 4 5 6 7 8Germany - Precipitation (mm/m2Germany - Area and Crop Results德國-酒花種植面積及產(chǎn)量Crop in mtArea in ha2007 is estimated面積（公頃）產(chǎn)量（噸）Germany - Area and Crop ResultGermany - Area and Crop Results德國面積及產(chǎn)量2007 is estimated 2007預(yù)計(jì)值Germany - Area and Crop ResultGermany - Alpha Acids i

5、n %德國-甲酸含量百分比(EBC Toluol 7.4, at harvest)EBC7.4法檢測(cè)Source: AHA (Working Group on Hop Analysis)數(shù)據(jù)來自酒花分析工作組Germany - Alpha Acids in %德國-Hallertau Acreage哈拉道地區(qū)種植面積 Area in ha2007 is estimated07年預(yù)計(jì)值（公頃）赫爾斯布魯克 珍珠 斯巴克精選 傳統(tǒng) 北方釀造 馬格努門 托拉斯 赫爾庫勒絲Hallertau Acreage哈拉道地區(qū)種植面Germany - Forward Contract Volume Spring

6、 2006德國2006年春季預(yù)售合同量Germany - Forward Contract VolGermany - Forward Contract Volume Spring 2007德國2007年春季預(yù)售合同量Germany - Forward Contract VolGermany - Forward Contract Volume Spring 2008德國2008年春季預(yù)售合同量Germany - Forward Contract VolHigh Alpha Sector高甲酸酒花Total acreage increased by 526 ha (= 8 %) in 2007.

7、While the acreage of Galena (- 18 %), Millenium (- 13 %) and Warrior (- 22 %) was reduced, CTZ increased by 21 %.2007年，美國高甲酸酒花總種植面積增加了526公頃（增長率為8%）。格林納種植面積下降18%， Millenium下降13%， Warrior下降22%。與此相反， CTZ的種植面積增加了21%。Despite a volume increase of 1.264 mt (= 6 %) the total alpha decreased by 93 mt (= 11 %

8、). The poor alpha yield resulted in significant short deliveries.美國高甲酸酒花總產(chǎn)量增加了1.264噸（增幅為6%），但甲酸的總產(chǎn)量下降了93噸（降幅為11%）。酒花甲酸含量偏低導(dǎo)致了嚴(yán)重的供貨短缺。Just like in Europe the spot market was very small and prices reached all time highs. 和歐洲市場(chǎng)上演的情形相似，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)可供應(yīng)的酒花非常有限，酒花價(jià)格持續(xù)走高。Crop 2008 is sold out, both by growers and d

9、ealers. 2008年度酒花均被種植者和商販?zhǔn)鄢觥e estimate the total acreage in the US will grow by approx. 2.800 to 2.900 ha for crop 2008. 預(yù)計(jì)2008年，美國酒花種植總面積將會(huì)增長28002900公頃。United States Hop Market美國酒花市場(chǎng)High Alpha SectorUnited StatesUSA - Area and Crop Result美國種面積及產(chǎn)量Area in ha面積（公頃）Production in mt產(chǎn)量（噸）2007 is estimate

10、d產(chǎn)量 面積USA - Area and Crop Result美國Area in ha面積（公頃）USA Varieties美國-品種 2007 is estimated高甲酸 苦花 香花Area in haUSA Varieties美國-USA - Alpha Acids in %美國-甲酸含量百分比USA - Alpha Acids in %Czech Republic - Area and Production捷克共和國-面積及產(chǎn)量Area in ha2007 is estimatedProduction in mt產(chǎn)量（噸）面積（公頃）薩茲 Czech Republic - Area

11、 and Prod The Saaz hop acreage has been reduced for 7 consecutive years (from 5.913 down to 4.843 ha). A further decline can be expected.捷克酒花面積已持續(xù)削減了7年，總面積從5913公頃下降到了4843公頃。預(yù)計(jì)這種下降情況仍將持續(xù)。 Low revenues due to low priced forward contracts and cost increases did not allow growers to renew their trellies

12、 and root stock.預(yù)售合同價(jià)格低迷導(dǎo)致了酒花種植者的低收入，而成本的增加又使得種植者無力更新他們的棚架和酒花苗。 40 % of the Saaz Saazer root stock is more than 20 years old. Consequently the plants are susceptible to pests and diseases and increasingly weak in yield and alpha content.40%的薩茲酒花苗已經(jīng)生長了20年。因此，這些酒花的抗病蟲害能力、產(chǎn)量以及甲酸含量都已經(jīng)減弱。 The cost of pro

13、duction inputs (fertilizer, pesticides, energy, labor, etc.) increased rapidly and has essentially reached the level of Western European farms.種植投入成本（化肥、農(nóng)藥、能源、勞力）迅速增長，以達(dá)到西歐農(nóng)場(chǎng)的水平。Since 1999 the Czech Crown continues to appreciate against the Euro. The exchange rate went down from 35 CZK/EUR in 2001 t

14、o 25 CZK/EUR at present.從1999年起，捷克貨幣克朗對(duì)歐元的匯率持續(xù)走高。匯率已經(jīng)從2001年的35克朗/歐元升高現(xiàn)在的25克朗/歐元。 Production costs in 2000 (150.000 CZK) were at around EUR 4,30/kg at the then prevalent exchange rate of 35. Todays production costs are calculated by the Saaz Hop Institute to be around 208.000 CZK, which is equivalent

15、 to EUR 8,30/kg based on the current exchange rate of 25.2000年，基于35 克朗/歐元的匯率，酒花的生產(chǎn)成本（15000克朗）大約在4.3歐元/公斤。而基于目前的匯率25克朗/歐元，據(jù)薩茲酒花學(xué)院計(jì)算，目前的酒花生產(chǎn)成本大概在208，000克朗，折算后為8.30歐元/公斤。Czech Republic - Situation and Outlook捷克共和國市場(chǎng)信息及展望 The Saaz hop acreage has been In contrast to their colleagues in Germany or the US

16、 the Czech hop growers did not benefit from the high spot market prices in 2006 and 2007 due to low yields and short deliveries of their existing forward contract quantities. 受較低產(chǎn)量以及現(xiàn)有預(yù)售合同量短缺的影響，與德美同行相比，捷克的酒花種植者并沒有在2006及2007年的高價(jià)現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)上獲利。 Nevertheless, the Saaz growers demanded price increases before

17、delivering crops 2006 and 2007. In order to secure delivery these increases were borne by the trade and not passed on to our customers.但是，捷克的酒花生產(chǎn)者在2006及2007年交貨銷售開始之前已經(jīng)要求過酒花漲價(jià)。但為了挽救市場(chǎng)，酒花行業(yè)內(nèi)部承載了漲價(jià)行為，漲價(jià)并沒有影響到我們的客戶。 The huge farm plots of the Czech Republic are very suitable for efficiently growing cere

18、al or energy plants. The production of these crops does not entail high fixed costs and is less risky as the crop can be changed each year depending on the market conditions. Cereal prices have doubled over the last two years.捷克共和國廣袤的農(nóng)場(chǎng)非常適合面積正在快速增加的燕麥以及能量型作物的生長，這類作物的產(chǎn)量并不依附于高成本的投入。除此之外，種植這類作物的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較小，應(yīng)為

19、種植者可以根據(jù)不同的市場(chǎng)情況調(diào)整種植結(jié)構(gòu)。在過去的2年，燕麥的價(jià)格已經(jīng)翻了2番。 Hop production of the Saaz variety can only be sustained if growers are prevented from switching to other production alternatives. This requires price incentives that ensure high enough returns to allow for investments and renovation of facilities.如果種植者不被允許改種

20、其他替代品種的話，薩茲的產(chǎn)量僅能維持現(xiàn)在的水平。這種局面要求酒花價(jià)格較高，以保證取得收益后在投資或改進(jìn)設(shè)備。Czech Republic - Situation and Outlook捷克共和國市場(chǎng)信息及展望 In contrast to their colleaguOther European Countries Crop Results and Area其他歐洲國家和地區(qū)種植面積及產(chǎn)量Production in mtArea in ha2007 is estimated產(chǎn)量 面積產(chǎn)量（噸）面積（公頃）Other European Countries CropOther Hop Produc

21、ing Countries Crop Results and Area其他歐洲國家種植面積及產(chǎn)量Production in mtArea in ha2007 is estimatedOthers: South Africa, Japan, Argentina, India產(chǎn)量（噸）面積（公頃）澳大利亞新西蘭其他總面積Other Hop Producing Countries China - Area and Production 中國面積及產(chǎn)量Production in mtArea in ha2007 is estimated產(chǎn)量（噸）面積（公頃）China - Area and Produ

22、ction 中Chinese Beer and Hop Market 中國啤酒及酒花市場(chǎng) Overview China Beer Market 2007: 2007啤酒市場(chǎng)綜述2007 estimated output 390 M Hl, + 11% over 2006預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量為3.9億 Growth not yet affected by cost and price increases 成本及價(jià)格增長尚未影響啤酒產(chǎn)量的增長 Growth rate in 2008 may slow down to 7-8% 2008年啤酒產(chǎn)量增長率將下降到7-8/% Strong downward tren

23、d in wort content and bitterness啤酒中麥芽汁含量及苦味值下降勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁 Estimated alpha demand of 1.000 mt 甲酸需求量預(yù)計(jì)為1000噸Overview China Hop Market 2007:2007酒花市場(chǎng)綜述 Total production of 9.500 mt總產(chǎn)量為9500噸 Average alpha 5.0% or less, est. alpha supply of 520 mt平均酸含量為5.0%，預(yù)計(jì)可供應(yīng)520噸甲酸 Farm yields, alpha, and quality worst ever

24、observed by JBS據(jù)巴特哈斯調(diào)查，農(nóng)場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)量、甲酸、質(zhì)量都將達(dá)到最糟糕的狀態(tài) Price peaked above RMB 100,000.- /mt 最高價(jià)格可達(dá)人民幣10萬元/噸以上 Inventories are completely depleted, no alternatives available庫存已被完全消耗，沒有第二個(gè)選擇Chinese Beer and Hop Market 中For Further Information - Please Visit our Website更多詳盡信息，請(qǐng)?jiān)L問我們的網(wǎng)站。With infos about the follow

25、ing members of the Barth-Haas Group:巴特哈斯集團(tuán)成員的更多信息：For Further Information - PleaEmail: reinhold.kugeljohbarth.dewww.BarthHaasG Thanks for your kind attention!謝謝大家！Email: reinhold.kugeljohbarth殜懌賦媥繡猵睚馳膽窋鞾麭魕毤潝鄂荍隗寢軴幬吪毴崿椨體蹬熰擱桘葈蔋懨貧詛瓕齸屁繽陃偂篌掩蕎笭磵鼑鐠叒雴泏矂兒緝蒔茨釱銒檱茙骿犬鶗蔯烊笠悱瑕脾狘摙殱囮豍柢窳鑠遾爤綅趚擻蘶宐松吏沖婥璖瘓薦逥僅纉甏橒銩鑇溳蒃霅巹岍渱踙煠很墻

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