chain(建構(gòu)供應(yīng)鏈模式)

1、PART II SolutionsModeling the Supply ChainModelingtheSupply Chain(建構(gòu)供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈模式式)TheexamplesinChapter4 showthateven thesimplestofsystems cangeneratesurprisinglycomplexbehavior.How,then,aremanagerstounderstandsuchcomplex business systemsassupply chainsandmanage themeffectively? Theanswer, in aword,ismodel

2、ing.Theonlywaytounderstandcomplex systemsistoconstructsimplifiedmodelsofthem,playwith themodelstosee howtheywork,andthenapplywhat youlearntothereal-worldsystem. Youmaynothave thoughtaboutitthisway, butyoualreadydothis withconceptualmodelsallthe time, evenifthe modelsareonlyinyour mind.This chaptersh

3、owsyouhowtouse these mentalmodelsmoreeffectively,and it introducestwo morepowerfulkindsofmodelsmathematical andsimulation modelsthat youcanuseasprecision tools forprediction andcontrol.Youdonthavetoknow howtobuildthesemore advanced models,but knowingwhatthey areandwhentousethemisvitaltomanaginga sup

4、plychaineffectively.第4章的例子子顯示了了部使最最簡(jiǎn)單的的系統(tǒng)，也會(huì)產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生令人人意料不不到的複複雜行為為。那麼，經(jīng)經(jīng)理人要要如何瞭瞭解供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈這麼麼複雜的的商業(yè)系系統(tǒng)，並並且有效效地管理理它們呢？簡(jiǎn)言言之，答答案就是是建模(modeling)。瞭解複複雜系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)的唯一一方法是是去建構(gòu)構(gòu)它們的簡(jiǎn)單單模式，操控這這些模式式看看它它們運(yùn)作作的法則則，然後後將所學(xué)學(xué)到的應(yīng)應(yīng)用在真實(shí)世界界的系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)。你或或許從來(lái)來(lái)沒(méi)有這這麼想過(guò)過(guò)，但事事實(shí)上你你卻一直直在使用用觀念模式(conceptualmodels)思考真實(shí)實(shí)世界的的系統(tǒng)，即使這這些模式式只有在在你的腦腦袋裡。本章章將教你你如何更更

5、有效地地使用這這些心智智模式(mental models)，並且介介紹兩種功能更更強(qiáng)的模模式數(shù)學(xué)模模式與模模擬模式式，可作作為預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)與控制制的精確確工具。你不不一定需需要知道道如何建建構(gòu)這些些進(jìn)階的的模式，但知道道有這些些進(jìn)階模模式存在，以及及何時(shí)使使用它們們，對(duì)於於有效管管理供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈?zhǔn)欠欠浅Ｖ匾?。TheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)Modelsare simplifiedrepresentationsA model is nothingmorethan asimplifiedrepresentationofa real-worldsystem.This representat

6、ion cantake a. widevarietyofforms,including verbalexplanations, whiteboarddiagrams,mathematicalequations,physicalstructures,andcomputerprograms.Allthesemodels serve acommon purpose: Theytakea systemthat maybehard to understandordangerous tomanipulate,andtheyrenderitinaform thatiseasier tounderstand

7、andsafertoplay with.模式是簡(jiǎn)簡(jiǎn)化的表表達(dá)方式式模式(model)不不過(guò)是一一個(gè)真實(shí)實(shí)系統(tǒng)的的簡(jiǎn)化表表達(dá)方式式。模式式的表達(dá)有很多多種方式式，包含含言語(yǔ)解解釋、白白板圖表表、數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)方程式式、物理理結(jié)構(gòu)以及電電腦程式式。所有有類型的的模式均均具有一一個(gè)共同同目的：模式建建構(gòu)會(huì)先選擇擇一個(gè)不不易理解解或其操操作危險(xiǎn)險(xiǎn)性的系系統(tǒng)，再再將這個(gè)個(gè)系統(tǒng)以以一種更容易易理解，以及操操作上更更安全的的方式呈呈現(xiàn)。TheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)Modelingaids thethreecore processesModelshelpwithallthreeofthekeybu

8、sinessprocesses describedinChapter 4:understanding,prediction,andcontrol(Figure 5.1).Buildinga model of asystem requires thatyou analyzethe systemtoidentifyitskeycomponents,figureout howthosecomponents work,andthenreassemble theminawaythatreplicates theessentialbehaviorofthesystem. Thatbasicsequence

9、ofanalysisand synthesisisthesurestwaytounderstandcomplex systems.Its alsothe methodunderlyingmost scientificdiscoveries, engineering solutions,and businessinnovations.建模協(xié)助助三項(xiàng)核核心程序序模式有助助於第4章描述述的三個(gè)個(gè)關(guān)鍵商商業(yè)程序序(three of thekeyBusinessprocesses)：瞭解解、預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)及控制制(見(jiàn)圖圖5.1)。建建立一個(gè)個(gè)系統(tǒng)的的模式需需要你去分析此此系統(tǒng)的的關(guān)鍵元元件，釐釐清這些些元件如如

10、何運(yùn)作作，並用用一些方方法重組組這些元件，以複製製此系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)的必要要行為(essential behavior)。分分析與綜綜合的基基本順序(瞭解(understanding)、預(yù)測(cè)(prediction)及及控制(control)，是瞭瞭解複雜系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)的最好好方法。此方法法也是許許多科學(xué)學(xué)發(fā)現(xiàn)、工程解解答，以以及商業(yè)業(yè)創(chuàng)新當(dāng)中所所採(cǎi)用的的方法。TheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)Modelingaids thethreecore processesModelingSupplyChainsTheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)Modelsgeneratevaluablepre

11、dictionsOnce youhave assembleda model,youcan useitasa testbed to generatepredictionsabouthowthe systemitrepresents would behaveundera varietyofconditions. Would building anew warehouseinOmahareducetransportationcostsasmuch as expected?Couldthecurrentsupplychainsupporta 15%increaseindemand? Whatwould

12、bethe impactoncash flowofextendingbettercredit terms to keycustomers?Its possible to answerwhatif“questionssuchasthesebychangingthereal-worldsystem, butmodelsprovideanswers faster,lessexpensively,and withalotlessrisk to thecompany.Predictionsgeneratedbybusinessmodels,inturn,increaseyour understandin

13、gofthereal-worldsystem, andyoucan usethat increasedunderstanding tofurther improvethe qualityofthe model anditspredictions.模式可產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生有價(jià)價(jià)值的預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)一旦你組組合出一一個(gè)模式式，你可可以使用用此模式式作為一一個(gè)測(cè)試試工具，產(chǎn)生關(guān)關(guān)於模式所代代表的系系統(tǒng)在不不同情況況下的預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)。在在奧馬哈哈(Omaha)建立一個(gè)個(gè)新倉(cāng)庫(kù)所減少少的運(yùn)輸輸成本與與預(yù)期是是否一樣樣？目前前的供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈可以以支持15的需求增增加量嗎？提供較較好的信信用條件件給關(guān)鍵鍵顧客，將對(duì)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流量量帶來(lái)什什麼影

14、響響呢？此類類若則則問(wèn)題題(whatifguestjons)可透過(guò)改改變真實(shí)實(shí)世界系系統(tǒng)來(lái)回回答，但是是模式卻卻可更快快速地提提供答案案、較不不昂貴，且對(duì)公公司而言言風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較較小。由商商業(yè)模式式產(chǎn)生的的預(yù)測(cè)將將可增加加我們對(duì)對(duì)真實(shí)世世界系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)的瞭解解，因而而你可以運(yùn)用用這些增增加的瞭瞭解來(lái)改改善模式式及其預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)的品品質(zhì)。TheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)Good modelsmake forgood decisionsToseehow importantpredictionsaretohelpingyouimproveyour supplychain,thinkback to th

15、eexample in Chapter3,inwhichacustomerandasupplierwantedtocreate ashared winbyreducingtheirtotalinspection costs.ThetradeoffcurveshowninFigure3.11revealed thatthe bestarrangementwas forthesuppliertospendadollarmoreoninspection,allowingthecustomertospendfour dollarsless.Wheredid thistradeoffcurvecomef

16、rom?Itcouldonlybetheresult of amodelthattook intoaccounttheoperationsrequiredforquality assurance,the costofthoseoperations,and their neteffects on quality.Inpractice,acompany wouldnt actually drawthistradeoffdiagram onceithadthemodel; it would simplyusethe model to findthe lowest-cost solution.Theo

17、nly reasonfordrawingthediagramwouldbetohelp peopleunderstand whythenew inspectionprogramisa winforbothcompanies.良好模式式產(chǎn)生良良好決策策要知道預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)供供應(yīng)鏈改改善有多多重要，回想一一下第3章的例子子，一個(gè)個(gè)顧客與與一個(gè)供應(yīng)應(yīng)商想藉藉由減少少總檢驗(yàn)驗(yàn)成本來(lái)來(lái)創(chuàng)造雙雙贏(shared win)。圖3.11互抵效應(yīng)曲線顯顯示，最最好的安安排是供供應(yīng)商多多花費(fèi)1元的檢驗(yàn)驗(yàn)成本，顧客則則可少花花費(fèi)4元。此互互抵線來(lái)來(lái)自於何何處？它它只可能能來(lái)自於於一個(gè)模模式的分分析結(jié)果果，該模式考慮慮到品

18、質(zhì)質(zhì)保證所所需的作作業(yè)、這這些作業(yè)業(yè)的成本本，以及及它們?cè)谠谄焚|(zhì)上上的淨(jìng)效果。實(shí)際上上，一家家企業(yè)不不會(huì)真正正畫(huà)出此此互抵線線圖，一一旦他建建構(gòu)了模模式；他只只要使用用此模式式找出最最低成本本解答即即可。繪繪製此圖圖形的唯唯一理由由乃在幫助大大家瞭解解，為何何新的檢檢驗(yàn)方案案是個(gè)雙雙贏的結(jié)結(jié)果。TheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)Modelsare alsousedforcontrolModelsare alsousedtocontrol real-worldsystems,asshownonThe right of Figure5.1.This useofmodelsisless

19、obvious thanthe other twobecause themodelsusedincontrol areusually implicitthatis, theyare embedded in thedesignofbusinesssystems,butare never communicatedtothepeople whoownand operatethosesystems.This problemisparticularly acute in thecase of software. Allthevariouskindsofsupplychainsoftware descri

20、bedinthenextchapter arebasedonvery specific modelsabouthowproduction,distribution,replenishment,sales,and other business processesarecarriedout.Unfortunately,most of thecompaniesthatbuythissoftwarehave noidea whatthosemodels areuntilafterthey installthe systemanddiscoverthattheembeddedmodelsdontsupp

21、orttheway theydobusiness.Theimpact of thismismatchcanrangefroma minor nuisance to acompletefailureofthesystem,whichiscertainlya devastating waytolearnabouttheimportanceofbusinessmodels.模式也使使用於控控制模式也使使用於控控制(control)真實(shí)世界界系統(tǒng)，如圖5.1右邊所示示。模式式在控制制上的使用比比其他兩兩個(gè)功能能較不明明顯，那那是因?yàn)闉槭褂渺鹅犊刂粕仙系哪Ｊ绞酵ǔＪ鞘莾?nèi)隱的(implicit)；亦即，它

22、們被被置入於於商業(yè)系系統(tǒng)的設(shè)設(shè)計(jì)中，但是從從來(lái)沒(méi)告告知那些些擁有與操操作這些些系統(tǒng)的的人。這這個(gè)問(wèn)題題在軟體體案例中中特別地地嚴(yán)重。在下一一章介紹的各種種不同類類型供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈軟體體均植基基於非常常特定的的模式，有關(guān)於於製造、配銷、補(bǔ)貨貨、銷售售和其他他商業(yè)程程序如何何被執(zhí)行行。不幸幸地，絕絕大部分分企業(yè)在在購(gòu)買此軟體時(shí)時(shí)，根本本不知道道有哪些些模式，直到他他們安裝裝系統(tǒng)後後，才發(fā)發(fā)現(xiàn)軟體體所置入的模式式無(wú)法支支援他們們的商業(yè)業(yè)運(yùn)作。這項(xiàng)不不搭配的的衝擊可可能從小小至一個(gè)個(gè)芝麻蒜皮的問(wèn)問(wèn)題，甚甚至大到到系統(tǒng)的的完全失失敗都有有可能，這當(dāng)然然是一種種可怕的的方式來(lái)瞭解商商業(yè)模式式的重要要性。TheC

23、aseforModels(模式之用用處)TherearethreebasictypesofModelsBusinessmodelscomeina widevarietyofforms,but mostofthemfall intoone of thethreebroadcategories shown in Figure5.2.Conceptual modelsusediagramsanddescriptionstorepresent abusinesssystem.They canbecreatedonwhite-boards,computerscreens,orthebacksofenve

24、lopes,andtheyprovidesimple, familiarstructures forreasoningaboutthe business.Mathematicalmodels representa businessintermsofformulasandprocedures,and theyare solvedbyevaluating those formulasorprocedures under aparticularsetofassumptions.Simulation modelsusesoftwareobjects to representthecomponentso

25、fa business,andtheyaresolved by runningthemodeltoseewhathappens whenthe objectsinteractwitheach other. Mathematicalandsimulationmodelsare often referred to as formalmodelsbecausethey havestrictformsandgeneratenumerical predictions,incontrasttotheinformalityofconceptualmodels.模式的三三種基本本類型商業(yè)模式式有多種種形式，但

26、大多多數(shù)屬於於圖5.2所示三種種主要類類型之二二種。觀觀念模式(conceptualmodels)使用圖形形與描述述來(lái)表達(dá)達(dá)一個(gè)商商業(yè)系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)。觀念念模式可可以在白板、電電腦螢?zāi)荒换蚴切判欧獗趁婷嫔蟿?chuàng)造造，而且且它們提提供理解解商業(yè)系系統(tǒng)之簡(jiǎn)簡(jiǎn)單、熟悉的結(jié)結(jié)構(gòu)。數(shù)數(shù)學(xué)模式式(mathematical models)以公式(formulas)與運(yùn)算程程序(Procedures)代表一個(gè)個(gè)商業(yè)系系統(tǒng)，這這些數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)模式在在一組特特殊假設(shè)設(shè)條件下下，藉由由估算公式式與運(yùn)算算程序求求得解答答。模擬擬模式(simulationmodels)使用軟體體物件(softwareobjects)來(lái)表達(dá)一一個(gè)企業(yè)業(yè)的

27、元件件components)，模擬模模式藉由由跑(running)模式來(lái)瞭瞭解不同同物件互互動(dòng)後，所發(fā)生生的情形形來(lái)尋找找解答。數(shù)學(xué)與與模擬模式通通常被稱稱為正規(guī)規(guī)模式(formal models)，因?yàn)樗鼈冇泻芎車?yán)格的的形式且且會(huì)產(chǎn)生預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)數(shù)值，與與非正規(guī)規(guī)化的觀觀念模式式形成對(duì)對(duì)比。TheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)ThreekindsofModelsTheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)Each typeoffers uniqueAdvantagesThedistinctions among these three kinds of modelsarenot h

28、ardand fasthybridformsare common.Butthe three types do representthreefundamentallydifferentapproachestomodeling,and eachoffers aunique setofcapabilitiesandlimitations.Because conceptualmodels aretheeasiesttobuildandunderstand,theyarethe bestchoice forachievingasharedunderstandingofthesupply chain,pa

29、rticularlywhenmanagersareinvolvedinthe modelingprocess.Mathematicalmodels arethemostpowerful,and theyare bestusedtopredict andoptimizetheperformanceofthe chain.Simulation modelsarethemost flexible,andtheyshouldbeusedtostudythebehaviorofamodelunderthemostrealisticbusinessconditions.每種模式式均有其其獨(dú)特優(yōu)優(yōu)勢(shì)這三種模

30、模式之區(qū)區(qū)別並不不困難而而且非常?？旎旎旌闲蛻B(tài)態(tài)(hybrid forms)很常見(jiàn)。不過(guò)這三三種類型型確實(shí)代代表三種種基本上上不同的的建模方方法，而而且每一一類模式式均有其獨(dú)特特的能力力與限制制。因?yàn)闉橛^念模模式最容容易建構(gòu)構(gòu)與瞭解解，對(duì)於於達(dá)成供供應(yīng)鏈的共同同性瞭解解，特別別是在經(jīng)經(jīng)理人參參與建模模過(guò)程時(shí)時(shí)，它們們是最佳佳選擇。數(shù)學(xué)模式是是最具能能力的，它們使使用在供供應(yīng)鏈績(jī)績(jī)效的預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)和最最佳化上上是最好好的。模擬擬模式是是最有彈彈性的，它們應(yīng)應(yīng)該使用用於瞭解解在最真真實(shí)企業(yè)業(yè)環(huán)境下下的商業(yè)模式式行為。TheCaseforModels(模式之用用處)Choosingthetypeisa m

31、anagementdecisionAsa manager, youdontneed to knowhow to usemathematicalmodels andsimulations;theseformalmodels areusually implemented in software,andspecializedskillsare required to setthem up andrunthem.Butyou do needtoknow howtouseconceptualmodelsbecauseyouare alreadyapplyingthem,whether wellorbad

32、ly, andyouneedtoknow whattoexpect of theothertwotypesandwhentotrusttheiroutput. Thenext three sections provideaquicktour of thethreekindsofmodels, andthefinalsectionofferssomeguidelinesforusingthemtosolvesupplychainproblems.選擇模式式類型是是個(gè)管理理決策作為一個(gè)個(gè)經(jīng)理人人，你不不需要知知道如何何使用數(shù)數(shù)學(xué)模式式與模擬擬模式；這些正正規(guī)模式通常常包含在在軟體中中，模式式之設(shè)定

33、定與運(yùn)用用需要具具備特殊殊技能。但你需需要知道如何何使用觀觀念模式式，因?yàn)闉槟阋呀?jīng)經(jīng)在應(yīng)用用它們了了，不管管是好或或壞；而而且你需要知知道對(duì)其其他兩類類模式應(yīng)應(yīng)有的期期待，以以及何時(shí)時(shí)去信任任它們的的產(chǎn)出。以下三節(jié)提提供三種種模式類類型的快快速導(dǎo)覽覽；最後後一節(jié)則則提供使使用此三三類模式式解決供應(yīng)鏈鏈問(wèn)題的的一些指指導(dǎo)方針針。Conceptual Models(觀念模式式)Conceptual modelsarethe simplestTheconceptualmodelisbyfarthe simplest of thethreetypes.This sortofmodelisbasical

34、lyadescriptionofa business systemandisusuallyexpressedassome combination of diagrams andexplanations. To alargeextent,theformatdependsontheexperienceofthemodelersthosewiththemosttraininginmodelingusually relyondetaileddiagramswithformalnotationtoreduceambiguity.Bycontrast,thosewithlittleornotraining

35、tendtoexpresstheirmodelsasverbal descriptionsmixedwith storiesabouthow thebusinessworksstories thatcan often be formalizedasscenarios.Althoughgenerallyless precisethandiagrams,descriptions andscenariosoftencapturethenatureofthebusinessinawaythatformaldiagramscannot.Thebestconceptualmodelsare usually

36、amixofdiagrams, descriptions,andscenarios.觀念模式式是最簡(jiǎn)簡(jiǎn)單的模模式觀念模式式是三種種模式中中最簡(jiǎn)單單的。這這類模式式基本上上是對(duì)一一個(gè)商業(yè)業(yè)系統(tǒng)的的描述，通常常是以一一些圖形形與說(shuō)明明的組合合性表達(dá)達(dá)。一般般來(lái)說(shuō)，其形式式取決於於建模者的經(jīng)經(jīng)驗(yàn)具備嚴(yán)嚴(yán)格訓(xùn)練練的建模模者通常常採(cǎi)用正正式符號(hào)號(hào)的詳細(xì)細(xì)圖形，以減少模糊糊性。相相較之下下，較少少或是沒(méi)沒(méi)有訓(xùn)練練的建模模者則偏偏向於以以口頭敘敘述，摻雜雜一些關(guān)關(guān)於商業(yè)業(yè)運(yùn)作的的故事來(lái)來(lái)表達(dá)他他們的模模式這些故故事可以以進(jìn)一步轉(zhuǎn)變變?yōu)橐恍┬┣榫?scenarios)。雖然通通常比圖圖表不詳詳實(shí)，描描述和情情

37、境時(shí)常以較簡(jiǎn)簡(jiǎn)易方式式表達(dá)商商業(yè)的本本質(zhì)，是是正規(guī)模模式所無(wú)無(wú)法做到到的。最最好的觀觀念模式通常常是圖形形(diagrams)、敘述(descriptions)和情境(scenarios)三者的相相結(jié)合。Conceptual Models(觀念模式式)Thegoaliso facilitatecommunicationRegardless of howyouexpressa conceptualmodel, thekeyistofindtherightbalance betweenprecision andease of communication.Forsystemsanalyststrai

38、ned in theuseofentity relationship(ER) diagramming,formalERdiagramsanddetailedscenarios Maybejust therighttools.Formanagerswho haveneverengaged in business modeling before,the right balancemay be acombinationofsimplediagramsand informal explanations.Buteven withmanagers,someconventionsarenecessary t

39、o makethe diagrams andexplanationsmakesense.Otherwise theoutputofthe processmay containmore myththanmodel.觀念模式式的目標(biāo)標(biāo)是在促促進(jìn)溝通通不管你如如何表達(dá)達(dá)一個(gè)觀觀念模式式，關(guān)鍵鍵在於找找出介於於精確和和容易溝溝通之間間的平衡點(diǎn)。對(duì)於受受過(guò)實(shí)體體關(guān)係繪繪圖方法法(entity relationship(ER) diagramming)訓(xùn)練的系系統(tǒng)分析析師而言言，正式式ER圖形以及及詳細(xì)情情境描述述也許是是正確的的工具。對(duì)於於不曾投投入商業(yè)業(yè)建模的的經(jīng)理人人而言，好的平平衡點(diǎn)也也許是一一種

40、簡(jiǎn)單單圖形和非正正式說(shuō)明明的組合合。但即即使是經(jīng)經(jīng)理人，仍需遵遵循一些些規(guī)範(fàn)才才能使圖圖形與說(shuō)明讓讓人理解解。否則則，程序序產(chǎn)出可可能比模模式本身身更難讓讓人理解解。Conceptual Models(觀念模式式)This bookusesconvergent engineeringThediagramsinthisbook generallyfollowthe conventions of convergentengineering,a modeling techniqueI developedspecificallytohelpmanagersformulateusefulbusiness

41、models. In thisapproach,a business systemconsistsofthreebasickindsofobjects:organizations,processes, andresources. As shown in Figure5.3, eachoftheseobjects plays adifferent roleinthe model,andthe three relatetoeach other inways thatbothconstrain themodelandmakeitmore understandable at thebusinessle

42、vel.Brieflyput,organizations ownresourcesandexecute processes;processesconsume onesetofresources andgenerateanotherset; andresourcesare thesourceofallcostand value in thesystem. There is muchmoretotheapproachthanthis,ofcourse(seemyearlier book, Business Modeling withObject Technology),butthisone-sen

43、tencesummary illustrates whatIview as an appropriate level of formalismformanagers,and it shouldmake theillustrations moremeaningfultoyouaswell.本書(shū)採(cǎi)用用收斂工工程本書(shū)圖形形主要採(cǎi)採(cǎi)用收斂斂工程(convergentengineering)的慣例，乃筆者者發(fā)展出出的一種建模模技術(shù)，特別有有助於經(jīng)經(jīng)理人建建構(gòu)有用用的商業(yè)業(yè)模式。在此方方法中，一個(gè)商業(yè)系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)是由三三種基本本物件(objects)所構(gòu)成：組織(organizations)、程序(proces

44、ses)和資源(resources)。如圖5.3所示，這這些物件件在此模模式中個(gè)個(gè)別扮演演不一樣的角角色，三三者之相相互關(guān)係係在模式式中彼此此牽制，並讓此此模式在在商業(yè)水水準(zhǔn)上更加容易易理解。簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)來(lái)說(shuō)，組組織擁有有資源並並且執(zhí)行行程序；程序消消耗一組組資源並產(chǎn)生另另一組；而資源源是所有有成本與與價(jià)值在在此系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)中的來(lái)來(lái)源。當(dāng)當(dāng)然，收收斂工程的內(nèi)容容遠(yuǎn)較此此G的介紹為為多(請(qǐng)參考筆筆者早期期的著作作：以物件技技術(shù)進(jìn)行行商業(yè)建模(BusinessModelingwith ObjectTechnology)，但上述述總結(jié)闡闡明筆者者所認(rèn)為經(jīng)理理人應(yīng)具具備的正正規(guī)建模模水準(zhǔn)，並且這這種建模模方法的的

45、表達(dá)方方式也應(yīng)應(yīng)該會(huì)增加你對(duì)對(duì)模式的的理解程程度。Conceptual Models(觀念模式式)This bookusesconvergent engineeringOrganizations,Processes, andResourcesConceptual Models(觀念模式式)GroupmodelingisthemosteffectiveConceptual modelscanbedeveloped by individuals,butforsystemsthat crossorganizationalboundaries,assupplychains inevitablydo,

46、thebest approach is toassemblea teamofrepresentatives fromall thegroupsinvolvedand hammeroutthemodeltogether. Manysoftwaretoolshavebeen designed to supportthisgroupdesignprocess,butlow-techtoolsare often themost effective.Personally,Ivealwaysgottenthebestresults fromacombinationofwhiteboard diagrams

47、 and5X7indexcards. Eachcard representsone of theorganizations,processes, or resourcesrequiredforthe model,andparticipants taketurnsrole-playing these objectsastheyinteractintheoperation ofthebusiness. Theresultingprocessishighlyengaging, often contentious,andalwayseducationalasparticipantsdiscoverth

48、ateach hasa radicallydifferentunderstandingofhowthe business actually works.Once thegrouphasassembled aconsensus modeloutofits variousconflictingperspectives,ithasasolidfoundation on which tobuilda bettersystem.集體建模模是最有有效的觀念模式式可以由由個(gè)人來(lái)來(lái)建構(gòu)，但對(duì)於於橫跨組組織界線線的系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)來(lái)說(shuō)，如供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈之例例，最好的方方法是從從所有相相關(guān)單位位選出代代表，組組成一個(gè)個(gè)工作團(tuán)團(tuán)隊(duì)

49、，一一起完成成模式之之設(shè)計(jì)。許多多軟體工工具已經(jīng)經(jīng)被設(shè)計(jì)計(jì)用於支支援此類類集體設(shè)設(shè)計(jì)(groupdesign)程序，但但低技術(shù)性工具具(low-techtools)經(jīng)常是最最有效的的。就筆筆者而言言，筆者者總是從從綜合使使用白板繪圖與與5X7索引卡當(dāng)當(dāng)中獲得得最好的的結(jié)果。每一張張卡片代代表模式式中的一一個(gè)組織織、程序或資資源，由由參與者者輪流扮扮演這些些物件的的角色，並進(jìn)行行相對(duì)應(yīng)應(yīng)商業(yè)作作業(yè)上的的互動(dòng)。最後後產(chǎn)生的的程序是是人員高高度投入入且時(shí)常常爭(zhēng)論不不已所得得，非常常其有教教育意義義，因?yàn)閰⑴c與者在過(guò)過(guò)程中發(fā)發(fā)現(xiàn)，每每個(gè)人對(duì)對(duì)企業(yè)實(shí)實(shí)際運(yùn)作作方式上上竟然有有完全不不同的理理解。一旦旦這

50、個(gè)團(tuán)團(tuán)隊(duì)透過(guò)過(guò)這樣的的衝突過(guò)過(guò)程完成成具有共共識(shí)的模模式後，一個(gè)堅(jiān)堅(jiān)實(shí)的基基礎(chǔ)即已建立立，並可可在此基基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)發(fā)展更好好的系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)。Conceptual Models(觀念模式式)Conceptual modelsarepooratpredictionAlthoughconceptual modelsform thebasisforunderstandingsystems,they areoflittlevalueinpredictionandcontrol. It shouldbeclearfrom theprecedingchapter thateventhesimplestmodels c

51、anproduce surprisinginteractions assoon as twoormore componentsare hookedtogether,and ourmindsaresimplynotequippedtoextrapolatethe effectsoftheseinteractions.When we do trytopuzzleout thebehaviorofa system,mostofustacitly assumethat alltherelationsinvolvedare linear.Forreasonsthat psychologistsare s

52、till teasingout,itisextremelydifficult forustoextrapolatethebehaviorofnonlinearinteractions, so we naturallytend to workwithin ourlimitationsandoversimplifyreal-worldrelationships.Goingbeyondtheselimitationsrequiresustoturn to morepowerfulkindsofmodels.觀念模式式的預(yù)測(cè)測(cè)能力非非常薄弱弱雖然觀念念模式是是瞭解系系統(tǒng)的基基礎(chǔ)，它它們?cè)陬A(yù)預(yù)測(cè)與控控制

53、上的的價(jià)值卻卻很小。從前一章中中我們應(yīng)應(yīng)該瞭解解，即便便是最簡(jiǎn)簡(jiǎn)單的模模式，當(dāng)當(dāng)兩個(gè)或或兩個(gè)以以上的模模式元件要連連結(jié)在一一起時(shí)，都可能能產(chǎn)生出出令人驚驚訝的互互動(dòng)效果果，而且且我們的的心智沒(méi)有足足夠裝備備去看出出這些互互動(dòng)的效效果。當(dāng)當(dāng)我們?cè)囋囍フ艺页鲆粋€(gè)個(gè)系統(tǒng)的的行為時(shí)，我我們大多多下意識(shí)識(shí)地假定定所有的的關(guān)係都都是線性性的。基基於一些些心理學(xué)學(xué)家仍舊會(huì)嘲嘲笑(teasingout)的原因，人類在在推斷非非線性互互動(dòng)行為為時(shí)存在在非常高高的困難度度，因此此，我們們很自然然地傾向向於在這這種限制制條件下下工作，並將真真實(shí)世界的關(guān)關(guān)係看得得過(guò)於簡(jiǎn)簡(jiǎn)單。欲欲跳脫出出這些限限制條件件，我們們必須

54、更更改方向向?qū)で蟾咝ЯΦ哪ＤＪ筋愋托?。MathematicalModels(數(shù)學(xué)模式式)Youalreadyusemathematical modelsRememberthoseword problems youhatedasa kid?Theywent somethinglikethis:Ifa boatmoving upstream in ariverflowingat2 miles an hourtakes4hourstotravel3miles,how manypeople wereinthe boat?Theseexerciseswere designed to teach yo

55、uHowtogenerateand apply mathematicalmodels.Anddespitethisearlytraining,you do usemathematicalmodels today.Youjust dont do it formally.你已經(jīng)在在使用數(shù)數(shù)學(xué)模式式了你還記得得小時(shí)候候你所討討厭的代代數(shù)問(wèn)題題嗎？例例如，假假如一條條船每小小時(shí)往上上游移動(dòng)2英哩，花花了4小時(shí)旅行行了3英哩，有有多少人人在這條條船上？這些練練習(xí)題是設(shè)計(jì)來(lái)來(lái)教育你你如何創(chuàng)創(chuàng)造與應(yīng)應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)模式。雖然這這是學(xué)生生時(shí)代的的訓(xùn)練，我們今日還還是在使使用數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)模式，只是沒(méi)沒(méi)有很正正式地應(yīng)應(yīng)用它們

56、們而已。MathematicalModels(數(shù)學(xué)模式式)Production costinguse alinear modelForexample,supposeyour bossasksyouhow muchitwouldcosttorunbatches of 1,000,2,000,or3,000audioCDs.Youknowthat it costs $1,000tosetupthe runandadollartomakeeach CD oncethe runbegins, so yourtotalcost would be $1,000plus$ 1timesthe numbero

57、fCDs, givingyou$2,000,$3,000, and$4,000for thethreequantities.Inworking up those numbers, youused oneofthemostcommonmathematical modelsinallofbusinessalinearmodel. In effect,yourmodelpredictsa linearrelationbetween costandthenumber of CDsproduced,asshowninFigure 5.4.生產(chǎn)成本本分析使使用的是是一個(gè)線線性模式式舉例來(lái)說(shuō)說(shuō)，假如如你的老

58、老闆問(wèn)你你分1,000、2,000、3,000幾個(gè)批量量生產(chǎn)音音樂(lè)光碟，各批批量所需需的生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)成本為為何？你你知道生生產(chǎn)設(shè)置置的固定定成本為為1,000美元，並且且每生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)1片光碟要要花費(fèi)1美元，所所以你的的總成本本將會(huì)是是1,000美元加上1美元乘上上光碟生生產(chǎn)數(shù)量量，得出出三種批批量的生生產(chǎn)總成成本分別別為2,000美元、3,000美元、4,000美元。在在計(jì)算這這些數(shù)值值時(shí)，你你已經(jīng)在在使用商商業(yè)上最最常應(yīng)用的的一種數(shù)數(shù)學(xué)模式式線線性模式式(linear model)。實(shí)際上上，你的的模式預(yù)預(yù)測(cè)生產(chǎn)成成本和光光碟產(chǎn)量量為一種種線性關(guān)關(guān)係，如如圖5.4所示。MathematicalMode

59、ls(數(shù)學(xué)模式式)Production costinguse alinear modelProduction costingbyVolumeMathematicalModels(數(shù)學(xué)模式式)Mathematicalmodels areactuallysystemsAsthis examplesuggests,a mathematicalmodelisactuallya specialkindofsystem, oneinwhichrelationsare specifiedusingequations.Theprecedingexample usedthe linearrelation,the

60、 best-behavedrogueinthegalleryofrelationsdescribed in Chapter4(see Figure4.4).Butinthiscase therelationisntjust agraphofobservedvaluesitsamathematicalequationthatspecifiesaprocedurefor generatingthosevalues,asshowninFigure5.5.Theequationisactuallya recipeforcarryingout thecalculation:Firstmultiplytw