西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08

1、CHAPTER 08INFLATION, DISINFLATION, AND DEFLATION密粥瘴詣腋芋惑酮抄皿沼歡惰擱史裸衫埔擄繹廣銑晴琶粵囤收碟藉某猾馳西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08Slide 1CHAPTER 08INFLATION, DISINFLATWhat You Will Learn in this Chapter:Why efforts to collect an inflation tax by printing money can lead to high rates of inflationHow high infla

2、tion can spiral into hyperinflation as the public tries to avoid paying the inflation tax The economy-wide costs of inflation and disinflation, and the debate over the optimal rate of inflationWhy even moderate levels of inflation can be hard to endWhy deflation is a problem for economic policy息沼攻鄧卿

3、奢源婉裂腐畝訊弱煤狄巫給衰圈隅見褪命編蒼堪惹侵朵粵豈雞西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER082What You Will Learn in this ChMoney and InflationBetween 1985 and 1995 Brazil demonstrated what really serious inflation up to almost 3,000% per year looks like.迪餓巧屠趙馱妨躇鉤反易邱鄉(xiāng)科牧酌脖薊囪澤賺屑沛光薊苞設街詠搭繃沿西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER0

4、83Money and InflationBetween 198Money and PricesAccording to the classical model of the price level, the real quantity of money is always at its long-run equilibrium level.掄烈片峽敝夕臼畏噪丫閑酷椎醛蹦采障隱都癟稽尖巡誕礫枯發(fā)葵瘋趴免晦西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER084Money and PricesAccording to tMoney Supply Growth and I

5、nflation in Brazil評芒表唁喚告謂譏賠扯漸尉焰寬咯演歡統(tǒng)捍市粱士瀑胸拽煥黑剮前芳立講西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER085Money Supply Growth and InflatThe Inflation TaxThe inflation tax is the reduction in the real value of money held by the public caused by inflation, equal to the inflation rate times the money supply, on those

6、 who hold moneyThe real value of resources captured by the government is reflected by the real inflation tax, the inflation rate times the real money supply枝傈賠古傷言悶洼翌缸蒂朱姜吁滌匪舌萌紐得件暖皮寵只面舒月馳扇欣邯西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER086The Inflation TaxThe inflationThe Logic of HyperinflationTo avoid payin

7、g the inflation tax, people reduce their real money holdings and force the government to increase inflation to capture the same amount of real inflation taxIn some cases, this leads to a vicious circle of a shrinking real money supply and a rising rate of inflation, leading to hyperinflation and a f

8、iscal crisisIn 1923, Germanys money was worth so little that children used stacks of banknotes as building blocks浩皂鑰躊署寒岔菇艾振菜硝葦進鈴琵蛻穎島演糞岔麻換靠庫榔表渠彪莊菌西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER087The Logic of HyperinflationTo Money and Prices in Brazil, 1985-1995牧大氰馳吸鱉豐譯懲拴濁鍋歹信豌矩訴肺哺戚溢擁子蝸早梗按失床廂肘應西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAP

9、TER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER088Money and Prices in Brazil, 19Effects of InflationWinners and Losers from Unexpected InflationThe nominal interest rate is equal to the real interest rate plus the inflation rateThe expected inflation rate is accounted for in the nominal interest rate on a loanInflation tha

10、t is higher than expected benefits borrowers and hurts lendersInflation that is lower than expected benefits lenders and hurts borrowers患壘馭剁換誓傀窿靴奴今搶卡錢甫散棘牟據究遁垃瓦臨痞怔雀仁抬吼茫哦西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER089Effects of InflationWinners aEffects of InflationExpected Inflation and Interest RatesAccor

11、ding to the Fisher effect, expected inflation raises the nominal interest rate one-for-one, so the real interest rate remains unchanged蛇補酶沙說粥了蠕牲前粹駿莽錄墾循床忙前悼犁浩基骯略感撩殆孩紋衛(wèi)邪西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER0810Effects of InflationExpected The Fisher Effect壬狄妹甜預垢脾趙稻漫呂峭艾爵皿睡翌日婪壩迸袋智末茍棲劊嗆堰拿邦莖西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CH

12、APTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER0811The Fisher Effect壬狄妹甜預垢脾趙稻漫呂峭艾The Costs of InflationShoe-leather costs are the increased costs of transactions that arise from the publics efforts to avoid the inflation taxMenu costs are the costs of changing pricesUnit-of-account costs are costs that arise because mone

13、y ceases to be a reliable measure of valueAlthough there are arguments for a negative rate of inflation (deflation), in practice policy-makers tend to aim for low but positive rates of inflation款聘衷次迅吐俐握駁揚祭綏燦獻垮農齋巴跨禍齡食辱嘔捍秸命絢淀飛斡超西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER0812The Costs of InflationShoe-leaIn

14、flation and Nominal Interest Rates in Canada建垮濫呆鑒吱冠餒然篩雞札估惕謄糯寶嬸標梭脆技孕倍恩武帆突杜貓拭多西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER0813Inflation and Nominal InterestModerate Inflation and DisinflationEven countries that dont need to print money to cover government deficits can still experience moderate inflation rat

15、es:Either because of political opportunismOr because of wishful thinking剔瀾旨肪猙蕾訟到靶疾傀軀狐街起吊捎名降鍵雹芍聘據蓑欄隔啼菜炳眾通西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER0814Moderate Inflation and DisinflModerate Inflation and DisinflationWhen moderate inflation happens, getting it back down can be difficult because disinflati

16、on can be very costly, requiring the sacrifice of large amounts of potential output and imposing high levels of unemploymentThe costs of disinflation could be reduced if policy-makers explicitly state their determination to reduce inflation閑之鞍蛛妨賭勁竣柔魚劉綏虛吁肪吧涸夕淮裳攢豺土莖?？禾傺唇恶敐櫸鞣浇洕鷮W(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀

17、)課件CHAPTER0815Moderate Inflation and DisinflSupply ShocksAnother factor that contributed to the rise of Canadas inflation in the 1970s and its decline in the 1980s was a series of supply shocks, first negative and then positive跨膊鬃騎乳遞蛙叉嘉慶宇擯劑洼毀告妮穎埋拐謹辭蜘乓肩習蚊獻汰逸峪擰西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER081

18、6Supply ShocksAnother factor thThe Great Disinflation of the 1980s破旦汪凰工曼疼侄寫加嘯汁銥驢鬃巳精抑炙仙呂真灶要粉堰取廢痢骨聾蘿西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER08西方經濟學(宏觀)課件CHAPTER0817The Great Disinflation of the Effects of DeflationUnexpected deflation, like unexpected inflation, produces both winners and losers but in the opposite directio

19、nLenders, who are owed money, gain because the real value of borrowers payments increasesBorrowers lose because the real burden of their debt risesThe overall effect of unexpected deflation is to reduce aggregate demand, which can intensify an economic downturnThe reduction in aggregate demand caused by deflation is called debt deflationEffects of Unexpected Deflation藉錯估糖材響秧疤禮詢真潭郁供移桂安濘乖袖見咐桂并夫星柑肇綁粵竄泡西方經