求職72課第十六-商業(yè)案例分析課件

(Contents)Part2.Part3.Part4.

交流Part1.Review

&案例形式Review:兩個大框架+一個小工具提到的case可以歸為兩大類，其中有一個小工具使用頻率較高Type

1--Profitability直接和financial相關(guān)，revenue、cost、profit等問題都屬于此類Type

2--Business

situation

(Enter

into

new

market)focus，growth、launch

new

product、pricing、M&A等問題都屬于此類Tool--Sizing常說的“拍腦袋”market

sizingCase

Interview

什么？硬實力：Problem-solving

skillsHow

you*:Structure

a

tough,

often

ambiguous,

business

problemDecide

which

issues

are

important

to

focus

onDeal

with

facts

and

data—and

their

implications

(numerical

and

otherwise)Formulate

conclusions

and

mendations

to

solve

theproblemArticulate

your

thoughts

during

a

fast

moving

discussion軟實力：Communication

skills,Collaboration,and

etc.*麥肯錫官網(wǎng)對于Case

Interview的描述案例形式The

interviewer

will

typically

start

the

case

by

giving

a

brief

overview

ofthe

context,

ending

with

a

question

that

points

to

the

problemdefinition.

It

needs

the

interviewee

to

lead

the

case

interview

by

askingquestions

and yzing

data.代表公司：Bain,BCGIntervieweeLeadAfter

the

brief

introduction

of

the

whole

case,

the

interviewer

will

guideyou

through

the

case

with

a

series

of

questions

that

will

allow

you

todisplay

a

full

range

of

problem-solving

skills.代表公司：McKinseyInterviewerLead提升銷售額Key

InformationProduct:

4

kinds,

30

flavors,

in

one-pint

containersDistribution

channelsIndustry:

third

player

behind

H?agen-Dazs

and

Ben

&

Jerry’s,

top

three

62%

of

the

market*案例來自Case

In

Point

7th

EditionStep

1Summarize

the

situation

and

questionCow

Brothers,

maker

of

super-premium

ice

cream,

low-fat

ice

cream,low-fat

yogurtand

sorbet,holdsthe

third

marketshare

in

the

whole

industry.Verify

the

objectivesIncrease

salesfrom

$200

million

to

$250

millionStep

2

Layout

the

structureRecall

the

profitability

structureProfitRevenueCost-Price/Unit#UnitCost/Unit*#Unit*Fixed

CostVariable

Cost本題的Step

2

Layout

the

structureIncrease

VolumeIncrease

Amount

of

Each

SaleIncrease

PricesCreate

Seasonal

BalanceIncreasing

SalesStep

3

Carry

onysisIncrease

DistributionChannelsIncrease

Product

LineInvest

in

Major

MarketingDiversityProducts

and

ServicesAcquire

CompetitorsnGrowth

StrategiesStep

4

GivemendationsnStep

upmarketingIncrease

product

lineDifferent

sizesDiversify

productlineyze

possible

acquisition:

competitors,

distributionchannelsMcKinsey——GlobaPharmLet’s

assume

our

client

is

GlobaPharm,

a

major

pharmaceutical

company

(pharmaco)

with

$10

billiona

year

in

revenue.

Itscorporate

headquarters

and

primary

research

and

development

(R&D)

centers

are

in

Germany,

with

regional

sales

officesworldwide.GlobaPharm

has

a

long,

successful

tradition

in

researching,develo ,

and

selling

“small

molecule”

drugs.

This

class

ofdrugs

represents

the

vast

majority

of

drugs

today,

including

aspirin

and

most

blood-pressure

or

cholesterol

medications.GlobaPharm

is

interested

in

entering

a

new,

rapidly

growing

segment

of

drugs

called

“biologicals.”

These

are

oftenproteins

or

other

large,

complex

molecules

that

can

treat

conditions

not

addressable

by

traditional

drugs.R&D

for

biologicalsis

vastly

different

from

small-molecule

R&D.

To

gain

these

capabilities,

pharmacos

have

three

options:they

can

build

them

from

scratch,

partner

with

existing

start-ups,

or

acquire

the

start-ups.

Since

its

competitors

are

alreadyseveralyears

ahead

of

GlobaPharm,

GlobaPharm

wants

to

jumpstart

its

biologicals

program

by

acquiring

BioFuture,

aleading

biologicals

start-up

based

in

the

San

Francisco

area.

BioFuture

was

founded

12

years

ago

by

several

prominentscientists

and

now

employs200

people.

It

is

publicly

traded

and

at

its

current

share

price

the

company

is

worth

about

$1billionin

total.GlobaPharm

has

engaged

you

to

evaluatethe

BioFuture

acquisition

and

advise

on

its

strategic

fit

with

GlobaPharm’sbiologicalsstrategy.

Should

GlobaPharm

acquire

BioFuture?*來源于麥肯錫官網(wǎng)Question

1What

factors

should

the

team

consider

when

evaluating

whether

GlobaPharmshould

acquire

BioFuture?Question

1What

factors

should

the

team

consider

when

evaluating

whether

GlobaPharmshould

acquire

BioFuture?BioFuture’s

valueFinancial

data:

revenues

and

profitsThe

value

of

BioFuture’s

drugpipelineR&D

capabilities,

scientific

talent,

in

lectual

propertyMarketing

or

sales

capabilities……Acquisition

priceSynergiesWhether

to

acquireQuestion

2The

team

wants

to

explore

BioFuture’s

current

drug

pipeline.

The

team

decides

tofocus on

evaluating

the

value

of

BioFuture’s

current

drug

portfolio.

Whatissues

should

the

team

consider

when

evaluating

the

value

of

BioFuture’s

existingdrug

pipeline?Question

2Further

cost

of

R&Duntil

each

drug

is

ready

to

be

soldPotential

value

of

selling

eachdrugMarket

size,

size

of

patient

population,

pricingMarket

share:

number

of

competitive

drugs

in

R&D

or

on

themarket;

different

side

effects,

convenient

dosing

scheduleCosts

to

manufacture

and

sell,

marketing,

distribution……Risk

levelWhat

to

considerQuestion

3Below

isa

description

of

expected

probability

of

success,

by

stage,

in

the

Pharma

R&Dpipeline.Note:

“Filing”

is

the

process

of

submitting

all

of

the

clinical

and

safety

evidence

from

Phase

I,

II,

and

III

trials,

andasking

for

regulatory

approval

to

actually

sell

the

drug.GlobaPharm

believes

that

the

likelihood

of

success

of

BioFuture’s

primary

drug

candidate

can

be

improved

byinvesting

an

additional

$150

million

in

a

larger

Phase

II

trial.

The

hope

is

that

this

investment

would

raise

the

successrate

in

Phase

II,

meaning

that

more

candidate

drugs

successfully

make

it

to

Phase

IIIand .

By

how

muchwould

the

Phase

II

success

rate

need

to

increase

in

order

for

this

investment

to

break

even?Question

3,

ask

for

more

informationIf

the

drug

is

successfully

marketed

and

sold,

it

would

be

worth

$1.2

billion.Second,

do

the

calculationCurrently,

it

worths:$1.2

billion*70%*40%*50%*90%=151.2millionTo

break

even,

set

the

new

success

rate

of

Phase

II

equal

to

x,

then$1.2

billion*70%*x*50%*90%=151.2

million+150millionSo

x=80%Third,

always

ask

“So

what”This

seems

like

a

very

big

challenge,

as

an

increase

by

40

percentage

points

means

that

the

current

probability

of

40%

needs

to

double.Question

4Next,

the

team

explores

the

potential

setup

with

BioFuture

after

the

acquisition.Although

BioFuture's

existing

drug

pipeline

is

relatively

limited,

GlobaPharm

is

highlyinterested

in

its

ability

to

serve

as

a

biological

research

“engine”

that,

when

combinedwith

GlobaPharm's

existing

R&D

assets,

will

produce

many

candidate

drugs

over

thenext

10

years.What

are

your

hypotheses

on

the

major

risks

of

integrating

the

R&Dfunctions

of

BioFuture

and

GlobaPharm?Question

4disease

(therutic

area)

interests

or

expertise

and

areScientists

do

not

have

overlapunable

to

materially

collaborate.Integration

into

the

process-driven

GlobaPharm