現(xiàn)代國際資本市場與投資銀行(英文版)課件

現(xiàn)代國際資本市場與投資銀行金巖石現(xiàn)代國際資本市場與投資銀行金巖石1TotalInvestableCapitalMarket全球資本市場總額December31,1998(Preliminary)U.S.Equity21.7%CashEquivalents4.8%U.S.RealEstate4.3%EmergingMarkets2.8%Non-U.S.Bonds26.1%DollarBonds*19.6%VentureCapital0.1%Non-U.S.Equity19.6%$58.2Trillion*IncludesHigh-YieldBondsSource:BrinsonPartners,Inc.TotalInvestableCapitalMarke2LargestRecentOne-YearRealStockPriceIndexIncreases各國股市最大一年漲幅..9.103.24.25.CountryPercentageincreaseOne-yearperiodPriceChangeoversubsequentone-yearperiod(percent)PhilippinesTaiwanVenezuelaPeruColombiaJamaicaChileItalyJamaicaThailandIndiaItalyAustriaFinlandDenmarkSpainLuxembourgSwedenPortugalLuxembourgHongKongHongKongKoreaHongKongSweden683.4400.1384.6360.9271.3224.5199.8166.4163.4161.9155.5147.3145.4128.3122.9119.8113.4111.5103.8103.6101.099.198.898.696.6Dec.1985-Dec.1986Oct.1986-Oct.1987Jan.1990-Jan.1991Aug.1992-Aug.1993Jan.1991-Jan.1992Apr.1992-Apr.1993Jan.1979-Jan.1980May1985-May1986Aug.1985-Aug.1986Oct.1986-Oct.1987Apr.1991-Apr.1992Apr.1980-Apr.1981Feb.1989-Feb.1990Sept.1992-Sept.1993Apr.1971-Apr.1972Dec.1985-Dec.1986Dec.1992-Dec.1993Aug.1982-Aug.1983Apr.1997-Apr.1998Jan.1985-Jan.1986Jan.1993-Jan.1994Feb.1975-Feb.1976Feb.1975-Feb.1976Nov.1979-Nov.1980Aug.1977-Aug.197828.465.733.115.8-19.9-59.238.9-15.78.7-2.6-50.3-32.1-19.846.3-12.44.2-10.8-9.6-34.12.6-38.5-3.431.9-22.4-50.8LargestRecentOne-YearRealS3LargestRecentOne-YearRealStockPriceIndexDecreases各國股市最大一年跌幅Country..9.103.24.25PercentagedecreaseOne-yearperiodPriceChangeoversubsequentone-yearperiod(percent)TaiwanJamaicaSwedenUnitedKingdomThailandSouthAfricaPhilippinesKoreaPakistanIndiaDenmarkHongKongHongKongNorwaySpainNorwayAustraliaFranceIndonesiaCanadaFinlandColombiaItalyNorwayDenmark-74.9-73.8-63.6-63.3-62.8-62.1-61.9-61.9-59.5-58.4-56.0-55.5-55.1-54.2-54.1-53.6-53.0-49.0-48.1-47.9-47.5-47.1-46.1-46.1-45.8Oct.1989-Oct.1990Jan.1993-Jan.1994Aug.1976-Aug.1977Nov.1973-Nov.1974Aug.1997-Aug.1998July1985-Jul.y1986Oct.1973-Oct.1974June1997-June1998Oct.1990-Oct.1991Nov.1963-Nov.1964July1969-July1970Aug.1997-Aug.1998Dec.1981-Dec.1982May1967-May1968Oct.1976-Oct.1977Jan.1974-Jan.1975Oct.1973-Oct.1974Sept.1973-Sept.1974Mar.1997-Mar.1998June1981-June1982Feb.1990-Feb.1991Jan.1980-Jan.1981Apr.1974-Apr.1975Dec.1989-Dec.1990Sept.1973-Sept.197485.169.696.672.771.948.9-14.1167.09.0-18.8-15.390.07.739.9-15.6-2.133.625.3-74.2-31.368.614.7LargestRecentOne-YearRealS4LargestRecentFive-YearRealStockPriceIndexIncreases各國股市最大五年漲幅CountryPercentageincreaseFive-yearperiodPriceChangeoversubsequentfive-yearperiod(percent)..9.103.24.25PhilippinesPeruChileJamaicaKoreaMexicoTaiwanThailandColombiaSpainIndiaFinlandAustriaPortugalFinlandJamaicaJapanFranceFinlandHongKongNetherlandsNorwayNorwaySwedenHongKong1,253.2743.1689.7573.9518.3501.7468.1430.7390.7381.9346.1336.3331.3329.1291.0280.2275.6262.6262.5261.6256.6253.1248.4247.1230.9Nov.1984-Nov.1989Sept.1991-Sept.1996Mar.1985-Mar.1990Dec.1980-Dec.1985Mar.1984-Mar.1989Jan.1989-Jan.1994May1986-May1991May1986-May1991Apr.1989-Apr.1994Oct.1982-Oct.1987Apr.1987-Apr.1992Sept.1992-Sept.1997Jan.1985-Jan.1990Apr.1993-Apr.1998Sept.1982-Sept.1987July1984-July1987Aug.1982-Aug.1987Mar.1982-Mar.1987Feb.1968-Feb.1973Jan.1975-Jan.1980July1993-July1998Sept.1982-Sept.1987Oct.1992-Oct.1997Aug.1982-Aug.1987Oct.1982-Oct.198743.5Notavailable104.238.7-36.6-50.9-12.717.0-52.0-33.758.4Notavailable-39.7Notavailable-55.510.9-48.510.2-68.2-17.2Notavailable-18.9Notavailable-36.9-14.6LargestRecentFive-YearReal5LargestRecentFive-YearRealStockPriceIndexDecreases各國股市最大五年跌幅..9.103.24.25CountryPercentagedecreaseFive-yearperiodPriceChangeoversubsequentfive-yearperiod(percent)SpainJamaicaVenezuelaThailandPhilippinesItalyPakistanNorwayJamaicaPhilippinesIndiaUnitedKingdomSouthAfricaColombiaColombiaChilePhilippinesFinlandKoreaPortugalJamaicaKoreaItalyFranceItaly-86.6-85.5-84.9-84.0-83.1-80.7-78.3-77.1-76.9-76.6-74.6-73.5-73.4-73.3-72.7-72.6-72.7-71.3-68.3-67.9-64.2-63.6-62.6-62.5-62.3Dec.1974-Dec.1979July1973-July1978May1977-May1982Jan.1994-Jan.1999Feb.1980-Feb.1985June1973-June1978Feb.1994-Feb.1999July1973-July1978Jan.1993-Jan.1998Sept.1969-Sept.1974Aug.1962-Aug.1967Dec.1969-Dec.1974Apr.1981-Apr.1986July1971-July1976July1979-July1984June1980-June1985Apr.1976-Apr.1981Oct.1973-Oct.1978June1993-June1998Jan.1988-Jan.1993Nov.1969-Nov.1974Aug.1978-Aug.1983Jan.1970-Jan.1975Jan.1973-Jan.1978Sept.1960-Sept.19650.1185.2138.9Notavailable1,000.072.6Notavailable74.1Notavailable-40.70.781.516.6-24.836.9587.924.499.0Notavailable222.6-68.9375.0-46.15.7-0.5LargestRecentFive-YearReal6TheTop100EconomiesandMNEs,1998(2-1)全球前100名經(jīng)濟實體與跨國公司

Rankcountry/CompanyUS$billionsRankcountry/CompanyUS$billions

..9.103.24.25.UnitedStatesJapanGermanyFranceUnitedKingdomItalyChinaBrazilCanadaSpainIndiaNetherlandsMexicoAustraliaKorea,RepublicofRussiaArgentinaSwitzerlandBelgiumSwedenAustriaTurkeyDenmarkGeneralMotorsHongKong7,921.34,089.92,122.71,466.21,263.81,166.2928.9758.0612.2553.7421.3388.7380.9380.6369.9337.9324.1284.8259.0226.9217.2200.5176.4161.3158.30.Daimler-ChryslerNorwayPolandFordMotorWal-MartStoresIndonesiaThailandFinlandGreeceSouthAfricaIranMitsuiItochuMitsubishiPortugalColombiaExxonGeneralElectricToyotaMotorIsraelSingaporeRoyalDutch/ShellGroupMarubeniSumitomoInt.BusinessMachines154.6152.1150.8144.4139.2138.5134.4124.3122.9119.0109.6109.4108.7107.2106.4106.1100.7100.599.795.295.193.793.689.081.7TheTop100EconomiesandMNEs7TheTop100EconomiesandMNEs,1998(2-2)全球前100名經(jīng)濟實體與跨國公司Rankcountry/CompanyUS$billionsRankcountry/CompanyUS$billions5.VenexuelaMalaysiaEgyptPhilippinesAXACitigroupVolkswagenNipponTelegraph&TelephoneNipponLifeInsuranceChileBPAmocoNisshoIwaiIrelandSiemensAllianzPakistanHitachiPeruU.S.PostalServiceMatsushitaElectricIndustrialNestleCreditSuissePhilipMorrisINGGroupBoeing81.379.879.278.978.776.476.368.367.767.566.064.863.262.459.559.157.856.556.200.NewZealandAT&TSonyMetroCzechRepublicNissanMotorBankofAmericaCorp.FiatHondaMotorAssicurazioniGeneraliMobilHewlettPackardAlgeriaHungaryDeutscheBankUnileverStateFarmInsuranceDai-IchiMutualLifeInsuranceBangladeshVebaGroupHSBCHoldingsUkraineToshibaRenaultSearsRoebuck55.853.651.551.551.048.748.447.747.146.545.645.244.944.644.544.043.543.342.741.541.441.3TheTop100EconomiesandMNEs81972 Foreigncurrencyfutures1973 Equityoptions1975 Treasurybondfutures1981 Currencyswaps1982 Interestrateswaps Eurodollarfutures Equityindexfutures Exchange-listedcurrencyoptions1983 Optiononequityindex OptionsonT-notefutures Optionsoncurrencyfutures Interestratecapsandfloors1985 Eurodollaroptions Swaptions1987 Compoundoptions1989 Futuresoninterestrateswaps Quantooptions1990 Equityindexswaps1991 Differentialswaps1992 Catastropheriskinsuranceoptions1993 Captions1994 Creditdefaultoptions1996 Electricityfutures1997 WeatherderivativesTheevolutionofDerivativesMarkets衍生證券市場的演進1972 ForeigncurrencyfuturesT9西方現(xiàn)代投資銀行業(yè)務操作贏利性操作支持性操作一級市場股權(quán)融資債券融資二級市場做市商業(yè)務經(jīng)紀業(yè)務交易業(yè)務投機對沖公司重組并購轉(zhuǎn)讓股權(quán)控制金融工程零息債券抵押證券衍生產(chǎn)品邊緣業(yè)務咨詢服務投資管理風險投資商業(yè)銀行結(jié)算業(yè)務研究開發(fā)內(nèi)部融資信息服務西方現(xiàn)代投資銀行業(yè)務操作贏利性操作支持性操作一級市場股權(quán)融資10美國證券市場的結(jié)構(gòu)和管理注冊券商通過結(jié)算機構(gòu)基金公司投資顧問紐約證券交易所芝加哥交易所美國交易所NASDAQⅠⅡⅢⅣ證監(jiān)會證券投資者保護公司美聯(lián)儲全國證券交易商協(xié)會法規(guī)稽核質(zhì)押貸款投資保險美國證券市場的結(jié)構(gòu)和管理注冊券商通過結(jié)算機構(gòu)基金公司投資顧問11NATIONALSECURITIESCLEARINGCORPORATION(NSCC)EXECUTIONDESTINATIONCLEARINGLISTEDSECURITIESORDERDELIVERY/MATRIXSYSTEMSOTCSECURITIESORDERDROUTINGSYSTEMSBROKERTHEINDIVIDUALINVESTOREXECUTIONREPORTACTREPORTINGBROKER/DEALERCLEARINGBROKER/DEALERINTERNALIZATIONECNMARKETMAKERUTPEXCHANGESPECIALISTDOTFLOORBROKERONPRIMARYEXCHANGEUTPEXCHANGEECNTHIRDMARKETHOWORDERS美國證券交易流程及中介BECOMETRADESNATIONALSECURITIESEXECUTIONLI12股票交易流程及其會計處理交易流程券商會計處理ACa-ECN-CbA,B券商各自計為經(jīng)紀傭金B(yǎng)CaCaA券商收雙邊傭金CCa-ECN-bA券商收單邊傭金，B券商收莊家交易傭金DC-ab-CA,B券商對分莊家交易傭金或買賣差價股票交易流程及其會計處理交易流程券商會計處理ACa-ECN-13Brokersrouteorderstomarketmaker.Individualtraderssortthroughorders……andmakermatchesonebyoneMarketmakercompletesthetransactionandpocketsthe“spread”betweenbuyandsellprices.Computerizedmatchingandexecutionleavesthemarketmakersfeetoanalyzetradingpatternsandmanageinventory.Tradersareconstantlycompletingtransactions,managingpositionsthroughoutthedaysothatprofitsoutweighlosses.Toexecutetheorders,anelectronicmarketmakerhasaconstantlychanginginventoryofstock.Acomputersortstheincomingordersandmatchesthemalmostinstantly.BuyersandsellersplaceorderswithbrokerThenewwayMarketRe-Markers做市商和再做市商BuyersandsellersplaceorderswithbrokerBrokersrouteelectronicorderstomarketmaker.TheoldwayBrokersrouteordersMarketmak14Arankingofmarketmakers’shareoftradingvolume:NASDAQ&BULLETINBOARDMARKETSHARE2Q2000------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Volume(millions)Marketshare1.KNIGHTTRADING 15,012 13.4%2.SCHWABCAPITALMARKETS 11,919 10.6%3.HERZOGHEINEGEDULD* 8,716 7.8%4.SPEAR,LEEDS&KELLOGG** 6,121 5.5%5.SALOMONSMITHBARNEY 5,468 4.9%6.MERRILLLYNCH 4,722 4.2%7.MORGANSTANLEY 4,459 4.0%8.GOLDMANSACHS 3,681 3.3%9.SHERWOODSECURITIES 3,602 3.2%10.CREDITSUISSEFIRSTBOSTON 3,142 2.8%*RecentlyacquiredbyMerrillLynch.**IntalkstobeacquiredbyGoldmanSachs.Source:AutEx/BlockDataandChaseH&QResearchKnight/Trimark(nowKnightTrading)wentpublicinJuly1998.TheunderwriterswereRobertsonStephens,MerrillLynch,ABNAmro,PaineWebber,andSouthwestSecurities.Top10MarketMakers前10名做市商及其市場份額Arankingofmarketmakers’sh1526%**22%***15%****21%*****4%******12%*20001996MerrillLynchNetRevenuesbyCategory美林證券凈收入結(jié)構(gòu)*Netinterestprofit凈利息收入**Commissions交易傭金***Principaltransactions做市商傭金****Investmentbanking投資銀行業(yè)務*****Assetmanagementandportfolioservicefees資產(chǎn)管理和投資顧問費******Other其他4%******15%****27%***29%**17%*****8%*26%**22%***15%****21%*****4%16摩根.斯坦利收入結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)代國際資本市場與投資銀行(英文版)課件17195258294227198142199819981999199920002000(inmillions)(inmillions)$2,773$3,213$4,592$337$485$492GoldmanSachs高盛資產(chǎn)管理和證券業(yè)務

ASSETMANAGEMENTANDSECURITIESSERVICESNetRevenuesAssetsUnderSupervisionAssetsundermanagementotherclientassets19525829422719814219981998199918GoldmanSachsGLOBALCAPITALMARKETS高盛全球資本市場$3,368$4,359$5,371199819992000(inmillions)(inmillions)199819992000$2,379$5,773$6,627InvestmentBanking投資銀行NetRevenues凈收入TradingandPrincipalInvestments交易和做市商業(yè)務NetRevenues凈收入GoldmanSachsGLOBALCAPITALM19金融業(yè)務收入種類及相關(guān)業(yè)務規(guī)范業(yè)務品種英語名稱業(yè)務形態(tài)有關(guān)規(guī)范和慣例交易業(yè)務A經(jīng)紀費

FlatCommission網(wǎng)上經(jīng)紀固定費率含作市商回扣B結(jié)算費ClearingCharge結(jié)算銀行和約固定費率經(jīng)紀業(yè)務ACommission全服務經(jīng)紀交易額的5%以下BDiscountCommission折扣經(jīng)紀單筆交易在$50-$300作市商業(yè)務AMarketMakingforSpread莊家傭金具備作市商資格及保證金B(yǎng)PrincipalTrading莊家交易作市商資格及公司存貨調(diào)整投資銀行業(yè)務AConcession新股發(fā)行承銷額的8%以上BConsultingfeeforM&A企業(yè)并購通常為企業(yè)并購額的1%金融業(yè)務收入種類及相關(guān)業(yè)務規(guī)范業(yè)務品種英語名稱業(yè)務形態(tài)有關(guān)規(guī)20業(yè)務品種英語名稱業(yè)務形態(tài)有關(guān)規(guī)范和慣例資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務A

Management/SupervisoryFee基金管理/代客理財通常為管理資金總額的1-3%B12-1BFee/Load基金銷售12-1B規(guī)定和銷售傭金咨詢規(guī)劃業(yè)務AFinancialPlanning財務規(guī)劃通常按小時收費，費率因人而異BConsulting企業(yè)診斷等衍生市場業(yè)務AHedging避險操作傭金、管理費加利潤提成BArbitrage對沖業(yè)務投資業(yè)務AVentureCapital/PrivateEquity風險投資公開披露（Disclosure）BProprietaryTrading特許交易業(yè)務品種英語名稱業(yè)務形態(tài)有關(guān)規(guī)范和慣例資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務AMan21業(yè)務品種英語名稱業(yè)務形態(tài)有關(guān)規(guī)范和慣例銀行業(yè)務ACommercialBanking商業(yè)銀行橋梁貸款和保證金拆借等BClearingBanking結(jié)算銀行股票質(zhì)押貸款/回購協(xié)議安排保險業(yè)務AVeriableLife可變性壽險限于可變性/投資性保險及衍生產(chǎn)品保險BInsuranceOption保險期貨業(yè)務品種英語名稱業(yè)務形態(tài)有關(guān)規(guī)范和慣例銀行業(yè)務AComm22TotalAssets $162.0AdjustedAssets(1) 123.5NetAdjustedAssets(2) 63.0LeverageRatio(3) 29.8AdjustedLeverage(4) 22.7NetAdjustedLeverage(5) 11.6Inbillions,exceptratiosNovember30,2000$171.2135.173.327.821.911.9November26,1999(1)AdjustedAssetsrepresentTotalAssetslesssecuritiespurchasedunderagreementstoresellandthereceivableforsecuritiesprovidedascollateral.(2)NetAdjustedAssetsrepresentAdjustedAssetslesssecuritiesborrowed.(3)LeverageRatioequalsTotalAssetsdividedbystockholders’equityandpreferredstockissuedbysubsidiaries.(4)AdjustedLeverageratioequalsAdjustedAssetsdividedbystockholders’equityandpreferredstockissuedbysubsidiaries.(5)NetAdjustedLeverageequalsNetAdjustedAssetsdividedbystockholders’equityandpreferredstockissuedbysubsidiaries.熊士坦公司表外業(yè)務的風險結(jié)構(gòu)(1)TheBearStearnsTableoff-balance-sheetriskpositions(1)TotalAssets23熊士坦公司表外業(yè)務的風險結(jié)構(gòu)(2)TheBearStearnsTableoff-balance-sheetriskpositions

(2)InbillionsLessthan1to33to5 Greaterthan1Year YearsYears5YearsTotalSwapagreements,includingoptions,swaptions,caps,collarsandfloorsFuturescontractsForwardcontractsOptionsheldOptionswrittenTotalPercentoftotal$99.448.5$216.536.2%$119.319.7

3.94.4$147.324.7%$92.94.00.20.2$97.316.3%$

$135.822.8%$446.372.641.125.011.9$596.9100.0%熊士坦公司表外業(yè)務的風險結(jié)構(gòu)(2)InbillionsLe24ReportingriskDisclosuretoshareholdersManagementreportsRegulatoryrequirementsControllingriskSettingrisklimits(desklevelandfirm-wide)AllocatingriskPerformanceevaluationCapitalallocationStrategicbusinessdecisionsPassive被動型Defensive防范型Active主動型EvolutionofVARapplications在險價值方法的應用ReportingriskControllingrisk25TopManagementCEO/CFO總臺AuditInternal&ExternalReviewsallareas全程監(jiān)控Operations“BackOffice”TradeProcessing后臺RiskManagement“MiddleOffice”Marketandcreditriskanalysis中臺Treasury&Trading“Frontoffice”Positioning前臺Organizationalstructureforriskmanagement風險管理的組織框架TopManagementAuditOperationsR26TraditionalA&LMVsModernVaR傳統(tǒng)的資產(chǎn)負債管理和現(xiàn)代在險價值方法的比較1Asset/LiabilityOriented Valuation/RiskOriented2BalanceSheetAnalysis Off-SheetPositionsIncluded3NoFinancialDerivativesDerivativesaskeyitems4InterestRateFocus OverallMarketRiskFocus5PassiveRiskControl Risk/ReturnManagement6NoHedgingtools HedgingPositionAdjustments7ForCommercialBanking ForGlobalCapitalMarket8FixedTimeFrame FlexibleTimeFrameTraditionalA&LMVsMo27美國注冊券商的分公司管理體制（1）比較項目獨立分公司直屬分公司法人結(jié)構(gòu)個人、合伙或獨立法人直屬總公司經(jīng)理任命合約制任命制經(jīng)理資格24號執(zhí)照8號或24號執(zhí)照起始投資分公司支付總公司支付運營成本分公司支付總公司支付公司名稱分公司自選和總公司一致會計方式獨立會計統(tǒng)一報表注冊費用分公司支付總公司支付收入來源傭金分成總公司預算開支美國注冊券商的分公司管理體制（1）比較項目獨立分公司直屬分公28美國注冊券商的分公司管理體制（2）比較項目獨立分公司直屬分公司收入分配總公司對注冊經(jīng)理總公司統(tǒng)一安排法律糾紛及開支分公司負擔總公司負擔監(jiān)管程序總公司確定總公司確定業(yè)務范圍分公司在總公司業(yè)務中自選總公司決定傭金及收費標準分公司決定總公司決定美國注冊券商的分公司管理體制（2）比較項目獨立分公司直屬分公29中國投行業(yè)務當前實際操作流程項目聯(lián)絡(luò)內(nèi)核小組改制重組上市輔導承銷立項立項調(diào)研上報證監(jiān)會財務顧問淘汰融資部復核淘汰反饋變更主承銷路演上市中國投行業(yè)務當前實際操作流程項目聯(lián)絡(luò)內(nèi)核小組改制重組上市輔導30現(xiàn)代西方投資銀行業(yè)務框架公司客戶結(jié)盟研發(fā)投資并購交易承銷結(jié)盟機構(gòu)客戶融資中介戰(zhàn)略投資者投機對沖追蹤咨詢兼并與收購戰(zhàn)略合作伙伴現(xiàn)代西方投資銀行業(yè)務框架公司客戶結(jié)盟研發(fā)投31美國注冊券商組織結(jié)構(gòu)和資金運營特許交易員注冊經(jīng)紀人公司投資（有借貸成本）客戶投資交易利潤導向投資目標導向投資利潤分成工資或經(jīng)紀傭金分成公司統(tǒng)一會計報表獨立帳戶會計交易利潤衡量業(yè)績傭金收入衡量利潤短線交易占主導客戶因人而異大量使用衍生工具較少使用衍生工具7號和相關(guān)業(yè)務執(zhí)照7號執(zhí)照美國注冊券商組織結(jié)構(gòu)和資金運營特許交易員注冊經(jīng)紀人公司投資（32KeyStepsinIPOProcessing

股票承銷業(yè)務主要的操作步驟KeyStepsinIPOProcessing

股票33IPOExample:Dr.Koop.Com(IPOonJune8,1999)“庫普醫(yī)生網(wǎng)”公司的上市費用分析SECReg.FeeNASDFilingFEENASDAQListingLegalAcctingPrintingBlueSkyTransferAgentMis.$26,975$10,204$94,000$600K$195K$350K$10K$7.5K$61,321

$1,355.000+8.6%ofIPOAmountDr.KReceivedTotal:$59,062,500(including15%overallotmentoption)IPOExample:Dr.Koop.Com(I34投資銀行業(yè)務的內(nèi)部分工和操作總臺后臺后臺中臺中臺前臺前臺外圍外圍外圍外圍中臺中臺前臺前臺前臺前臺前臺前臺投資銀行業(yè)務的內(nèi)部分工和操作總臺后臺后臺中臺中臺前臺前臺外圍35GlobalDebtandEquityIssuanceJan.1toMay16,2001全球債券股票發(fā)行的市場份額MANAGER MARKETSHAREMERRILLLYNCH 12.7%SALOMONSMITHBARNEY 11.7CREDITSUISSEFIRSTBONSTON 8.6MORGANSTANLEY 7.9J.P.MORGAN 7.9GOLDMANSACHS 6.5LEHMANBROTHERS 6.1Total61.4Data:ThomsonFinancialSecuritiesGlobalDebtandEquityIssuanc36VentureCapitalSpending

美國風險投資總額AmountInvestedVentureCapitalSpending

美國風險投37CSFB/DLJPrivateEquity

vs.TotalVentureCapital

瑞銀華寶-帝杰私人股權(quán)基金CSFB/DLJ帝杰私人股權(quán)基金---World’slargestVCfundYear20002000年全球最大的風險投資基金Investedassetsover$2.0BManagedapproximately$22BVCinvestmentamount美國風險投資總額Year1995---$8.0BYear1999---$46.0BYear2000---Over$100B*

*:$75BwasinvestedintoInternetrelatedbusinessCSFB/DLJPrivateEquity

vs.T38Lucent/AgereSpinoffIPO

朗訊/艾杰爾分拆作業(yè)流程LucentDebtReducedto$530mBackedByLucent$6.5BCreditLinesEst.$200mtaxsavingM.Stanley$2.3BDebtsDebt/EquitySwapTotalEst.Fee:$75mAgereIPO$3.6BIPO$2.3BDebtsCreditorunderwriterMorganStanley’sNewDeal摩根斯坦利的新作Lucent/AgereSpinoffIPO

朗訊/艾杰39自下而上的體制一股獨大的結(jié)構(gòu)雙股雙軌的市場自下而上的股民非常規(guī)市場上市資源的稀缺性不充分競爭不完全流通短期化投資價值評估的虛假性股票價格的虛擬性投資行為的非理性中國股票市場的特點自下而上的體制一股獨大的結(jié)構(gòu)雙股雙軌的市場自下而上的股民非常40中國證券市場的供求機制自上而下的體制一股獨大的結(jié)構(gòu)雙股雙規(guī)的市場自下而上的股民新股上市上市公司增發(fā)非流通股入市散戶基金機構(gòu)自營供給需求中國證券市場的供求機制自上而下的體制一股獨大的結(jié)構(gòu)雙股雙規(guī)的41自下而上的體制一股獨大的結(jié)構(gòu)雙股雙軌的市場自下而上的股民非常規(guī)市場上市資源的稀缺性不充分競爭不完全流通短期化投資價值評估的虛假性股票價格的虛擬性投資行為的非理性新股上市上市公司增發(fā)非流通股入市散戶基金機構(gòu)自營供給需求供求的非均衡性自下而上的體制一股獨大的結(jié)構(gòu)雙股雙軌的市場自下而上的股民非常42THECOMPETITIVEADVANTAGEMATRIXOFCORPORATESTRATEGY公司優(yōu)勢和國別優(yōu)勢1324StrongWeakStrongWeakFirm-specificAdvantagesCountry-specificAdvantagesTHECOMPETITIVEADVANTAGEMATR43TheoldwayBrokersrouteorderstomarketmaker.Individualtraderssortthroughorders……andmakermatchesonebyoneMarketmakercompletesthetransactionandpocketsthe“spread”betweenbuyandsellprices.Computerizedmatchingandexecutionleavesthemarketmakersfeetoanalyzetradingpatternsandmanageinventory.Tradersareconstantlycompletingtransactions,managingpositionsthroughoutthedaysothatprofitsoutweighlosses.Toexecutetheorders,anelectronicmarketmakerhasaconstantlychanginginventoryofstock.Acomputersortstheincomingordersandmatchesthemalmostinstantly.BuyersandsellersplaceorderswithbrokerThenewwayMarketRe-Markers做市商和再做市商BuyersandsellersplaceorderswithbrokerBrokersrouteelectronicorderstomarketmaker.TheoldwayBrokersrouteorder44現(xiàn)代國際資本市場與投資銀行金巖石現(xiàn)代國際資本市場與投資銀行金巖石45TotalInvestableCapitalMarket全球資本市場總額December31,1998(Preliminary)U.S.Equity21.7%CashEquivalents4.8%U.S.RealEstate4.3%EmergingMarkets2.8%Non-U.S.Bonds26.1%DollarBonds*19.6%VentureCapital0.1%Non-U.S.Equity19.6%$58.2Trillion*IncludesHigh-YieldBondsSource:BrinsonPartners,Inc.TotalInvestableCapitalMarke46LargestRecentOne-YearRealStockPriceIndexIncreases各國股市最大一年漲幅..9.103.24.25.CountryPercentageincreaseOne-yearperiodPriceChangeoversubsequentone-yearperiod(percent)PhilippinesTaiwanVenezuelaPeruColombiaJamaicaChileItalyJamaicaThailandIndiaItalyAustriaFinlandDenmarkSpainLuxembourgSwedenPortugalLuxembourgHongKongHongKongKoreaHongKongSweden683.4400.1384.6360.9271.3224.5199.8166.4163.4161.9155.5147.3145.4128.3122.9119.8113.4111.5103.8103.6101.099.198.898.696.6Dec.1985-Dec.1986Oct.1986-Oct.1987Jan.1990-Jan.1991Aug.1992-Aug.1993Jan.1991-Jan.1992Apr.1992-Apr.1993Jan.1979-Jan.1980May1985-May1986Aug.1985-Aug.1986Oct.1986-Oct.1987Apr.1991-Apr.1992Apr.1980-Apr.1981Feb.1989-Feb.1990Sept.1992-Sept.1993Apr.1971-Apr.1972Dec.1985-Dec.1986Dec.1992-Dec.1993Aug.1982-Aug.1983Apr.1997-Apr.1998Jan.1985-Jan.1986Jan.1993-Jan.1994Feb.1975-Feb.1976Feb.1975-Feb.1976Nov.1979-Nov.1980Aug.1977-Aug.197828.465.733.115.8-19.9-59.238.9-15.78.7-2.6-50.3-32.1-19.846.3-12.44.2-10.8-9.6-34.12.6-38.5-3.431.9-22.4-50.8LargestRecentOne-YearRealS47LargestRecentOne-YearRealStockPriceIndexDecreases各國股市最大一年跌幅Country..9.103.24.25PercentagedecreaseOne-yearperiodPriceChangeoversubsequentone-yearperiod(percent)TaiwanJamaicaSwedenUnitedKingdomThailandSouthAfricaPhilippinesKoreaPakistanIndiaDenmarkHongKongHongKongNorwaySpainNorwayAustraliaFranceIndonesiaCanadaFinlandColombiaItalyNorwayDenmark-74.9-73.8-63.6-63.3-62.8-62.1-61.9-61.9-59.5-58.4-56.0-55.5-55.1-54.2-54.1-53.6-53.0-49.0-48.1-47.9-47.5-47.1-46.1-46.1-45.8Oct.1989-Oct.1990Jan.1993-Jan.1994Aug.1976-Aug.1977Nov.1973-Nov.1974Aug.1997-Aug.1998July1985-Jul.y1986Oct.1973-Oct.1974June1997-June1998Oct.1990-Oct.1991Nov.1963-Nov.1964July1969-July1970Aug.1997-Aug.1998Dec.1981-Dec.1982May1967-May1968Oct.1976-Oct.1977Jan.1974-Jan.1975Oct.1973-Oct.1974Sept.1973-Sept.1974Mar.1997-Mar.1998June1981-June1982Feb.1990-Feb.1991Jan.1980-Jan.1981Apr.1974-Apr.1975Dec.1989-Dec.1990Sept.1973-Sept.197485.169.696.672.771.948.9-14.1167.09.0-18.8-15.390.07.739.9-15.6-2.133.625.3-74.2-31.368.614.7LargestRecentOne-YearRealS48LargestRecentFive-YearRealStockPriceIndexIncreases各國股市最大五年漲幅CountryPercentageincreaseFive-yearperiodPriceChangeoversubsequentfive-yearperiod(percent)..9.103.24.25PhilippinesPeruChileJamaicaKoreaMexicoTaiwanThailandColombiaSpainIndiaFinlandAustriaPortugalFinlandJamaicaJapanFranceFinlandHongKongNetherlandsNorwayNorwaySwedenHongKong1,253.2743.1689.7573.9518.3501.7468.1430.7390.7381.9346.1336.3331.3329.1291.0280.2275.6262.6262.5261.6256.6253.1248.4247.1230.9Nov.1984-Nov.1989Sept.1991-Sept.1996Mar.1985-Mar.1990Dec.1980-Dec.1985Mar.1984-Mar.1989Jan.1989-Jan.1994May1986-May1991May1986-May1991Apr.1989-Apr.1994Oct.1982-Oct.1987Apr.1987-Apr.1992Sept.1992-Sept.1997Jan.1985-Jan.1990Apr.1993-Apr.1998Sept.1982-Sept.1987July1984-July1987Aug.1982-Aug.1987Mar.1982-Mar.1987Feb.1968-Feb.1973Jan.1975-Jan.1980July1993-July1998Sept.1982-Sept.1987Oct.1992-Oct.1997Aug.1982-Aug.1987Oct.1982-Oct.198743.5Notavailable104.238.7-36.6-50.9-12.717.0-52.0-33.758.4Notavailable-39.7Notavailable-55.510.9-48.510.2-68.2-17.2Notavailable-18.9Notavailable-36.9-14.6LargestRecentFive-YearReal49LargestRecentFive-YearRealStockPriceIndexDecreases各國股市最大五年跌幅..9.103.24.25CountryPercentagedecreaseFive-yearperiodPriceChangeoversubsequentfive-yearperiod(percent)SpainJamaicaVenezuelaThailandPhilippinesItalyPakistanNorwayJamaicaPhilippinesIndiaUnitedKingdomSouthAfricaColombiaColombiaChilePhilippinesFinlandKoreaPortugalJamaicaKoreaItalyFranceItaly-86.6-85.5-84.9-84.0-83.1-80.7-78.3-77.1-76.9-76.6-74.6-73.5-73.4-73.3-72.7-72.6-72.7-71.3-68.3-67.9-64.2-63.6-62.6-62.5-62.3Dec.1974-Dec.1979July1973-July1978May1977-May1982Jan.1994-Jan.1999Feb.1980-Feb.1985June1973-June1978Feb.1994-Feb.1999July1973-July1978Jan.1993-Jan.1998Sept.1969-Sept.1974Aug.1962-Aug.1967Dec.1969-Dec.1974Apr.1981-Apr.1986July1971-July1976July1979-July1984June1980-June1985Apr.1976-Apr.1981Oct.1973-Oct.1978June1993-June1998Jan.1988-Jan.1993Nov.1969-Nov.1974Aug.1978-Aug.1983Jan.1970-Jan.1975Jan.1973-Jan.1978Sept.1960-Sept.19650.1185.2138.9Notavailable1,000.072.6Notavailable74.1Notavailable-40.70.781.516.6-24.836.9587.924.499.0Notavailable222.6-68.9375.0-46.15.7-0.5LargestRecentFive-YearReal50TheTop100EconomiesandMNEs,1998(2-1)全球前100名經(jīng)濟實體與跨國公司

Rankcountry/CompanyUS$billionsRankcountry/CompanyUS$billions

..9.103.24.25.UnitedStatesJapanGermanyFranceUnitedKingdomItalyChinaBrazilCanadaSpainIndiaNetherlandsMexicoAustraliaKorea,RepublicofRussiaArgentinaSwitzerlandBelgiumSwedenAustriaTurkeyDenmarkGeneralMotorsHongKong7,921.34,089.92,122.71,466.21,263.81,166.2928.9758.0612.2553.7421.3388.7380.9380.6369.9337.9324.1284.8259.0226.9217.2200.5176.4161.3158.30.Daimler-ChryslerNor