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PRESENTATIONON

ThePresentEconomicOutlookforPakistan

By

MinistryofFinance GovernmentofPakistanApril,2006

PRESENTATIONON

ByApril,2OutlineofPresentationKeyMacroeconomicChallengesofthe1990sHowdidweaddressthosechallengesWhereAreWeNow?WheredowewanttoseePakistaninthenextfiveyearsKeyMacroeconomictargetsforthenextfiveyearsNewChallengesHowtoaddressnewchallengesConcludingremarksOutlineofPresentationKeyMacOvercomingmacroeconomicchallenges1990sMacroeconomicScenarioMacroeconomicimbalancesleadingtobuildupofpublicdebt,decelerationofgrowthandinvestment,andstagnationinexportsChallengesofthe90sImprovemacroeconomicenvironmentBringdebtsituationundercontrolRestoreinvestorconfidenceReviveeconomicgrowthRestorefinancialsovereignty2000-onwards:Two-prongedStrategyfollowedPoliciespursuedtostrengthenmacroeconomicenvironmentIntroducingwide-rangingstructuralreforms6OvercomingmacroeconomicchallPoliciespursuedtostrengthenmacroeconomicenvironmentReducing“TwinDeficits”KeepinginflationlowBuildingforeignexchangereservesMaintainingstabilityinexchangerateMaintainingconsistencyandcontinuityinpolicies7PoliciespursuedtostrengthenStrongcommitmenttoreformagendaMajoreconomicreformsTaxReformsGovernance

ReformsCapitalMarketReformsIndustry&InvestmentReformsFiscalTransparencyAgricultureSectorReformsFinancialSectorReformsDeregulation&PrivatizationFiscalResponsibility&DebtLimitationAct8StrongcommitmenttoreformagImprovedexternalbalanceofpaymentsIncreasedforeignexchangereservesExportsgrowingatdouble-digitratesPakistan’seconomyhasmadesignificantprogressduringthelastsixyearsAvibranteconomyspurredbyFDIanddomesticinvestmentininfrastructureTransparentandpredictableeconomicpoliciesReformpoliciesinstitutionalized,ensuringcontinuityConfidenceoftheprivatesectorrestoredInflowsofremittancessurgedFiscalandcurrentaccountdeficitsloweredDecliningdomesticandexternaldebtburdenAvibranteconomyspurredbyFDIanddomesticinvestment9ImprovedexternalbalanceofpWhereAreWeNow?WhereAreWeNow?RobustEconomicGrowthRealGDPgrowth(%yoychange)Source:FederalBureauofStatistics6.57.0RobustEconomicGrowthRealGDPPerCapitaIncome($)PerCapitaIncomeContinuestoRiseSource:FederalBureauofStatisticsPerCapitaIncome($)PerCapitNewJobsCreatedLabourForceSurveyEmployment(inmillions)NumberofNewEmployment(inmillions)FY0036.82-FY0239.052.23FY0442.012.96FY06(Q1)47.555.54Source:LabourForceSurvey,FBSNewJobsCreatedLabourForceSReductioninPovertyArea2000-012004-05Changes(%Points)Overall32.125.4-6.7Rural39.031.8-7.2Urban22.717.2-5.5Source:CenterforResearchonPovertyReductionandIncomeDistribution(CRPRID)ReductioninPovertyArea2000-0ForeigninvestmentForeignInvestment(US$million)includingPrivatizationProceedsSource:SBPForeigninvestmentForeignInveNetCreditFlowstothePrivateSectorNetCreditFlowsBanksFuel&EnergyNonEnergyNonBanksRisingProfitabilityDrivingGrowthSource:KSEBanksFuel&EnergyNonEnergyNCurrencystabilizationandbuoyantstockmarketreflectsoptimisminthePakistaneconomySource:BloombergExchangerate(PKR/USD)Pakistan’sKarachiStockExchangeIndex-10025CurrencystabilizationandbuoImprovingbudgetarypositionOverallfiscaldeficit(%ofGDP)Source:MinistryofFinanceImprovingbudgetarypositionOvGrowingRevenueCollectionhelpsboostup

theeconomyIncreaseRevenueCollection(Rs.Billion)Source:MinistryofFinance&CBRCBRRevenueGrowingRevenueCollectionhelOverallinterestpaymentratioshaveimprovedInterestPayments(As%ofTotalRevenue)Source:MinistryofFinanceOverallinterestpaymentratioLowinflationhasprovidedmonetaryflexibilitySource:FBSInflation(%)(Baseyear2001=100)LowinflationhasprovidedmonMonth-wiseTrendinInflationSupplySideActionsProjectedMonth-wiseTrendinInflationSRegionalPriceComparisonofEssentialCommoditiesSource:FBS&MinistryofCommerceCOMPARISONOFPRICESOFESSENTIALHOUSEHOLDBUDGETITEMSWITHREGIONALCOUNTRIESinPakRupeesS#ItemsUnitIslamabadNewDelhiKabulTehran28/03/0627/03/0619/03/0622/03/061WheatKG11.8819.1818.15-2WheatFlourKG13.2419.1824.20-3RiceBasmatiKG22.6327.4042.3582.164MoongPulseKG49.6765.7660.5039.435MashPulseKG56.0271.2460.50-6MasoorPulseKG43.9643.9260.5059.157GramPulseKG31.7941.1060.5052.588OnionKG11.0710.9618.1529.589TomatoesKG14.9916.4436.5029.5810GarlicKG58.0261.3772.0052.5811ChickenFarmKG55.6568.50121.0092.0112MuttonKG196.56191.80266.20427.2013SugarKG36.0331.5131.4639.4316/03/0610/3/200619/03/0622/03/0614DieselLitre37.2542.5434.001.0515Petrol(Super/Octane90)Litre56.3661.3836.305.2616KeroseneOilLitre37.5049.3239.001.08RegionalPriceComparisonofEMoneySupply,Inflation&GrowthM2NominalGDPInflationRealGDPMoneySupply,Inflation&GrowLowinterestratesencouragedprivateinvestmentandfuelledgrowthWeightedAverageLendingRate(%perannum)Source:SBPLowinterestratesencouragedExceptionallystrongexternalliquiditySource:SBPImportsandExports(US$million)ExceptionallystrongexternalAsconfidenceintheeconomybuilds,remittancesfromabroadhaverisensharplySource:SBPRemittances(US$million)AsconfidenceintheeconomybCurrentaccount(%ofGDP)CurrentaccountdeficitremainsundercontrolSource:SBPCurrentaccount(%ofGDP)CurrFinancialFlows(Million$) 2005-06 2004-05PrivatizationProceeds 1645 363Grants 637 231CapitalMarkets 1500 600Project&ProgramAid 2893 2044ForeignInvestment 1850 1676Total 8525 4914CurrentAccountDeficit -5353 -1753Amortization -1042 -1434OtherPayments -416 -1500Total -6811 -4687

AdditiontoReserves 1714 227

Source:MinistryofFinanceFinancialFlows(Million$) ...aidedbyaphenomenalbuildupinFXreservesSource:SBPForeignexchangereserves(US$billion)...aidedbyaphenomenalbuildDebtProfileofPakistanDebtProfileofPakistanPUBLICDEBT(As%ofGDP)(EndJune)Source:DebtOffice,MinistryofFinancePUBLICDEBT(As%ofGDP)(EndEXTERNALDEBTANDLIABILITIES

(%ofForeignExchangeEarnings)SignificantlyreducingvulnerabilitytoexternalshocksSource:DebtOffice,MinistryofFinanceEXTERNALDEBTANDLIABILITIESINDICATORSOFDEBTBURDENExternalDebt(As%ofGDP)Source:DebtOffice,MinistryofFinanceINDICATORSOFDEBTBURDENExterINDICATORSOFDEBTBURDENExternalDebtAsMultiplesofFXReservesSource:DebtOffice,MinistryofFinanceINDICATORSOFDEBTBURDENExterPakistan’sEconomyIntheNextFiveYearsPakistan’sEconomyPakistan’sEconomyintheNextFiveYearsStrongEconomicGrowthRangingbetween6–8%p.a.StableMacroeconomicEnvironmentDebtBurdenReachingSustainableLevelLivesoftheCommonManImprovingSocialIndicatorsImprovingPakistan’sEconomyintheNextKeyMacroeconomicTargetsForTheNextFiveYearsKeyMacroeconomicTargetsKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSustainableBudgetDeficitEnsuingMacroeconomicStabilityContinuetoMaintainMacroeconomicStabilitySource:MinistryofFinanceKeyMacroeconomicTargetsforPublicDebtAttainingSustainabilityContinuetoMaintainMacroeconomicStabilityKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSource:MinistryofFinancePublicDebtAttainingSustainaCountryNoLongerVulnerabletoExternalShocks:ExternalDebtAs%ofGDPContinuetoMaintainMacroeconomicStabilityKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSource:MinistryofFinanceCountryNoLongerVulnerabletInvestmentas%ofGDPRisingRisingInvestmentKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSource:MinistryofFinanceInvestmentas%ofGDPRisingRPakistanonahigherGrowthTrajectorySustainingGrowthMomentumKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSource:MinistryofFinancePakistanonahigherGrowthTrNewChallengesNewChallengesSecondgenerationreformsSecondgenerationreformsImprovingcompetitivenessofindustryFacilitateexpansionandincreasedroleofprivatesectorFurtherstrengtheningoftaxadministrationPromotingtransparencyineconomicpolicymakingJudicialreform,PoliceReformandCivilServiceReformStrengtheninginstitutions32BuildingrobustfinancialsystemFurtherstrengtheningoftaxadministrationSecondgenerationreformsSeconContinuingEconomicAgendai.CurtailingHighEnergyCostsPowerSectorReformsHydelPowerGasPipelinesReformsofOilandGasindustryii.RemovingWaterShortagesWaterReservoirsManagementofWaterResourcesEfficientUsageattheFarmLevelContinuingEconomicAgendai.CContinuingEconomicAgendaiii.

Improving

Logistics&RemovingSupplyChainConstraintsNationalTradeCorridorRetail&WholesaleMarketsDevelopmentPortsModernizationModernizingTransportFleetiv.UnlockingtheLandBankNIPs(NationalIndustrialParks)ReleaseofGovernmentLand(Defence,Railways,ProvincialGovernmentsetc.)ComputerizationofLandTransactionsContinuingEconomicAgendaiii.ContinuingEconomicAgendav.RemovingSkillsGap&EnhancingProductivityNTEVTA5NewEngineeringUniversities&HECInitiativesEducationSectorReformsvi.BoostingAgricultureSectorDevelopmentLivestockSectorFisheriesHorticulture&ValueAddedAgricultureResearch&ExtensionServicesYieldEnhancementContinuingEconomicAgendav.RContinuingEconomicAgendaTourism&HotelIndustryExpansionSMEs&OneVillageOneProductix.SustainingIndustrialDevelopmentBeyondTextilesx.DevelopingKnowledgeBasedIndustry&Outsourcingxi.StrengtheningGrowthProspectsofServiceSectorxii.ObtainingPreferentialAccesstoGlobalMarketsContinuingEconomicAgendaTouConclusionsEconomyContinuestoGrowStronglyReductioninUnemploymentGrowingProfitabilityofPrivateSectorRobustBankingSystemStrongGrowthinDiversifiedSectorsVibrantTelecomSectorStrongDomestic&ExternalDemandSustainingEconomicGrowthGrowingopportunitiesinInfrastructureGrowingRoleofthePrivatesectorConclusionsEconomyContinuest

PRESENTATIONON

ThePresentEconomicOutlookforPakistan

By

MinistryofFinance GovernmentofPakistanApril,2006

PRESENTATIONON

ByApril,2OutlineofPresentationKeyMacroeconomicChallengesofthe1990sHowdidweaddressthosechallengesWhereAreWeNow?WheredowewanttoseePakistaninthenextfiveyearsKeyMacroeconomictargetsforthenextfiveyearsNewChallengesHowtoaddressnewchallengesConcludingremarksOutlineofPresentationKeyMacOvercomingmacroeconomicchallenges1990sMacroeconomicScenarioMacroeconomicimbalancesleadingtobuildupofpublicdebt,decelerationofgrowthandinvestment,andstagnationinexportsChallengesofthe90sImprovemacroeconomicenvironmentBringdebtsituationundercontrolRestoreinvestorconfidenceReviveeconomicgrowthRestorefinancialsovereignty2000-onwards:Two-prongedStrategyfollowedPoliciespursuedtostrengthenmacroeconomicenvironmentIntroducingwide-rangingstructuralreforms6OvercomingmacroeconomicchallPoliciespursuedtostrengthenmacroeconomicenvironmentReducing“TwinDeficits”KeepinginflationlowBuildingforeignexchangereservesMaintainingstabilityinexchangerateMaintainingconsistencyandcontinuityinpolicies7PoliciespursuedtostrengthenStrongcommitmenttoreformagendaMajoreconomicreformsTaxReformsGovernance

ReformsCapitalMarketReformsIndustry&InvestmentReformsFiscalTransparencyAgricultureSectorReformsFinancialSectorReformsDeregulation&PrivatizationFiscalResponsibility&DebtLimitationAct8StrongcommitmenttoreformagImprovedexternalbalanceofpaymentsIncreasedforeignexchangereservesExportsgrowingatdouble-digitratesPakistan’seconomyhasmadesignificantprogressduringthelastsixyearsAvibranteconomyspurredbyFDIanddomesticinvestmentininfrastructureTransparentandpredictableeconomicpoliciesReformpoliciesinstitutionalized,ensuringcontinuityConfidenceoftheprivatesectorrestoredInflowsofremittancessurgedFiscalandcurrentaccountdeficitsloweredDecliningdomesticandexternaldebtburdenAvibranteconomyspurredbyFDIanddomesticinvestment9ImprovedexternalbalanceofpWhereAreWeNow?WhereAreWeNow?RobustEconomicGrowthRealGDPgrowth(%yoychange)Source:FederalBureauofStatistics6.57.0RobustEconomicGrowthRealGDPPerCapitaIncome($)PerCapitaIncomeContinuestoRiseSource:FederalBureauofStatisticsPerCapitaIncome($)PerCapitNewJobsCreatedLabourForceSurveyEmployment(inmillions)NumberofNewEmployment(inmillions)FY0036.82-FY0239.052.23FY0442.012.96FY06(Q1)47.555.54Source:LabourForceSurvey,FBSNewJobsCreatedLabourForceSReductioninPovertyArea2000-012004-05Changes(%Points)Overall32.125.4-6.7Rural39.031.8-7.2Urban22.717.2-5.5Source:CenterforResearchonPovertyReductionandIncomeDistribution(CRPRID)ReductioninPovertyArea2000-0ForeigninvestmentForeignInvestment(US$million)includingPrivatizationProceedsSource:SBPForeigninvestmentForeignInveNetCreditFlowstothePrivateSectorNetCreditFlowsBanksFuel&EnergyNonEnergyNonBanksRisingProfitabilityDrivingGrowthSource:KSEBanksFuel&EnergyNonEnergyNCurrencystabilizationandbuoyantstockmarketreflectsoptimisminthePakistaneconomySource:BloombergExchangerate(PKR/USD)Pakistan’sKarachiStockExchangeIndex-10025CurrencystabilizationandbuoImprovingbudgetarypositionOverallfiscaldeficit(%ofGDP)Source:MinistryofFinanceImprovingbudgetarypositionOvGrowingRevenueCollectionhelpsboostup

theeconomyIncreaseRevenueCollection(Rs.Billion)Source:MinistryofFinance&CBRCBRRevenueGrowingRevenueCollectionhelOverallinterestpaymentratioshaveimprovedInterestPayments(As%ofTotalRevenue)Source:MinistryofFinanceOverallinterestpaymentratioLowinflationhasprovidedmonetaryflexibilitySource:FBSInflation(%)(Baseyear2001=100)LowinflationhasprovidedmonMonth-wiseTrendinInflationSupplySideActionsProjectedMonth-wiseTrendinInflationSRegionalPriceComparisonofEssentialCommoditiesSource:FBS&MinistryofCommerceCOMPARISONOFPRICESOFESSENTIALHOUSEHOLDBUDGETITEMSWITHREGIONALCOUNTRIESinPakRupeesS#ItemsUnitIslamabadNewDelhiKabulTehran28/03/0627/03/0619/03/0622/03/061WheatKG11.8819.1818.15-2WheatFlourKG13.2419.1824.20-3RiceBasmatiKG22.6327.4042.3582.164MoongPulseKG49.6765.7660.5039.435MashPulseKG56.0271.2460.50-6MasoorPulseKG43.9643.9260.5059.157GramPulseKG31.7941.1060.5052.588OnionKG11.0710.9618.1529.589TomatoesKG14.9916.4436.5029.5810GarlicKG58.0261.3772.0052.5811ChickenFarmKG55.6568.50121.0092.0112MuttonKG196.56191.80266.20427.2013SugarKG36.0331.5131.4639.4316/03/0610/3/200619/03/0622/03/0614DieselLitre37.2542.5434.001.0515Petrol(Super/Octane90)Litre56.3661.3836.305.2616KeroseneOilLitre37.5049.3239.001.08RegionalPriceComparisonofEMoneySupply,Inflation&GrowthM2NominalGDPInflationRealGDPMoneySupply,Inflation&GrowLowinterestratesencouragedprivateinvestmentandfuelledgrowthWeightedAverageLendingRate(%perannum)Source:SBPLowinterestratesencouragedExceptionallystrongexternalliquiditySource:SBPImportsandExports(US$million)ExceptionallystrongexternalAsconfidenceintheeconomybuilds,remittancesfromabroadhaverisensharplySource:SBPRemittances(US$million)AsconfidenceintheeconomybCurrentaccount(%ofGDP)CurrentaccountdeficitremainsundercontrolSource:SBPCurrentaccount(%ofGDP)CurrFinancialFlows(Million$) 2005-06 2004-05PrivatizationProceeds 1645 363Grants 637 231CapitalMarkets 1500 600Project&ProgramAid 2893 2044ForeignInvestment 1850 1676Total 8525 4914CurrentAccountDeficit -5353 -1753Amortization -1042 -1434OtherPayments -416 -1500Total -6811 -4687

AdditiontoReserves 1714 227

Source:MinistryofFinanceFinancialFlows(Million$) ...aidedbyaphenomenalbuildupinFXreservesSource:SBPForeignexchangereserves(US$billion)...aidedbyaphenomenalbuildDebtProfileofPakistanDebtProfileofPakistanPUBLICDEBT(As%ofGDP)(EndJune)Source:DebtOffice,MinistryofFinancePUBLICDEBT(As%ofGDP)(EndEXTERNALDEBTANDLIABILITIES

(%ofForeignExchangeEarnings)SignificantlyreducingvulnerabilitytoexternalshocksSource:DebtOffice,MinistryofFinanceEXTERNALDEBTANDLIABILITIESINDICATORSOFDEBTBURDENExternalDebt(As%ofGDP)Source:DebtOffice,MinistryofFinanceINDICATORSOFDEBTBURDENExterINDICATORSOFDEBTBURDENExternalDebtAsMultiplesofFXReservesSource:DebtOffice,MinistryofFinanceINDICATORSOFDEBTBURDENExterPakistan’sEconomyIntheNextFiveYearsPakistan’sEconomyPakistan’sEconomyintheNextFiveYearsStrongEconomicGrowthRangingbetween6–8%p.a.StableMacroeconomicEnvironmentDebtBurdenReachingSustainableLevelLivesoftheCommonManImprovingSocialIndicatorsImprovingPakistan’sEconomyintheNextKeyMacroeconomicTargetsForTheNextFiveYearsKeyMacroeconomicTargetsKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSustainableBudgetDeficitEnsuingMacroeconomicStabilityContinuetoMaintainMacroeconomicStabilitySource:MinistryofFinanceKeyMacroeconomicTargetsforPublicDebtAttainingSustainabilityContinuetoMaintainMacroeconomicStabilityKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSource:MinistryofFinancePublicDebtAttainingSustainaCountryNoLongerVulnerabletoExternalShocks:ExternalDebtAs%ofGDPContinuetoMaintainMacroeconomicStabilityKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSource:MinistryofFinanceCountryNoLongerVulnerabletInvestmentas%ofGDPRisingRisingInvestmentKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSource:MinistryofFinanceInvestmentas%ofGDPRisingRPakistanonahigherGrowthTrajectorySustainingGrowthMomentumKeyMacroeconomicTargetsfortheNextFiveYearsSource:MinistryofFinancePakistanonahigherGrowthTrNewChallengesNewChallengesSecondgenerationreformsSecondgenerationreformsImprovingcomp

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