區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)

區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型研究石敏俊筑波大學(xué)區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型研究

區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型框架的建立：外部社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響人地關(guān)系變化的機(jī)制鄂爾多斯高原：人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型與退耕還林對水土保持影響的比較靜態(tài)模擬自然科學(xué)與社會科學(xué)相融合的必要性區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展與農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策

歐美國家的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策石油農(nóng)業(yè)的化肥農(nóng)藥高投入導(dǎo)致水質(zhì)污染等環(huán)境問題價(jià)格支持政策導(dǎo)致農(nóng)產(chǎn)品過剩農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策的核心是推行農(nóng)業(yè)粗放化經(jīng)營，減少化肥農(nóng)藥投入，減少農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量對于實(shí)行粗放經(jīng)營的農(nóng)戶給予政策補(bǔ)貼發(fā)展中國家的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境問題土地退化引起的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境問題沙漠化，水土流失，鹽堿化環(huán)境負(fù)荷引起的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境問題水質(zhì)污染，土壤污染土地退化的人為因素人口壓力，農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)水平依賴資源投入的靜態(tài)增長導(dǎo)致農(nóng)業(yè)粗放再生產(chǎn)和土地利用的平面擴(kuò)張，土地利用超過環(huán)境容量時(shí)帶來土地退化發(fā)展中國家的農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展解決土地退化問題的出路在于發(fā)展可持續(xù)集約農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)集約農(nóng)業(yè)：通過集約化達(dá)到可持續(xù)集約化：對少量土地實(shí)行集約經(jīng)營，技術(shù)密集投入，提高單位土地面積生產(chǎn)力水平，為大面積退化土地休生養(yǎng)息恢復(fù)生態(tài)、實(shí)現(xiàn)區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供條件保護(hù)環(huán)境與發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系發(fā)展中國家的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策解決土地退化問題的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境政策應(yīng)當(dāng)結(jié)合發(fā)展可持續(xù)集約農(nóng)業(yè)來展開發(fā)展可持續(xù)集約農(nóng)業(yè)的關(guān)鍵是技術(shù)進(jìn)步，開發(fā)實(shí)用適用技術(shù)實(shí)用：實(shí)際農(nóng)業(yè)活動中可應(yīng)用的技術(shù)適用：適合當(dāng)?shù)貤l件適合當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)戶采用的技術(shù)發(fā)展集約化（技術(shù)進(jìn)步和技術(shù)推廣）的政策補(bǔ)貼可作為環(huán)境保護(hù)投資進(jìn)入環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)核算人地關(guān)系行為機(jī)制模型框架：社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響人地關(guān)系變化的機(jī)制影響人地關(guān)系和環(huán)境生態(tài)變化的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素人口增長市場和價(jià)格變動技術(shù)進(jìn)步制度和政策收入和消費(fèi)期望單一或綜合的因果關(guān)系分析不能闡明社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響人地關(guān)系變化的機(jī)制ResourceEnvironmentLandUseAgriculturalActivityInstitutionPolicyTechnologyMarketPriceResource

ConstraintImpact

onEnvironmentPopulationgrowth外部社會經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境與人地關(guān)系變化LiteraturereviewFarmhouseholddecisionsonlanduseactivitiesandtechnologicalchoiceaffectthesoilqualityandthereforeplayanimportantroleinaggravatingorreducinglanddegradationprocess.Farmhouseholddecisionsaredependentonrelativepricesofoutput,inputandproductionfactors,andothersocio-economiccircumstancesthatareinfluencedbymacroeconomicandagriculturalpolicy.Agriculturalpoliciesaffectsoildegradationbyinfluencingthelevelofoutput,inputandfactorprices(Heerink,2001).社會經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響環(huán)境變化化的機(jī)制政策和制度——外部社會經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)環(huán)境——農(nóng)戶經(jīng)濟(jì)行為為——資源環(huán)境變化化反饋：資源環(huán)環(huán)境變化——農(nóng)戶經(jīng)濟(jì)行為為（資源環(huán)境境退化對經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)福利的影響響，現(xiàn)在價(jià)值值與將來價(jià)值值的關(guān)系）外部社會經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)環(huán)境變化：：價(jià)格變動，，技術(shù)進(jìn)步，，資金和信用用約束政策和制度：：經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和和環(huán)境政策，，資源分配和和資源利用秩秩序ConceptualframeworkPolicyreformSocio-economicenvironmentHouseholddecisionLanddegradationMacroandRegionalModelsHouseholdandVillageModelsBio-economicModelsBio-economichouseholdModelBio-economicvillageModelapproachEconometricestimationapproach:Lackofconsistentdata,especiallylongtimeseriesdataabouteffectofsoildegradation;Difficulttoderivefunctionformofthereduced-formequation.Metamodeling(Decisionrule)approach:Estimateastatisticalrelationshipbetweenexogenousandrelevantendogenousvariables;refertoablack-boxrepresentationofrelationshipbetweenexogenousandendogenousvariables;Bio-economicvillageModel-continueMathematicalprogrammingapproach:AmajoradvantageofLPModelisthatcancombineeconomicbehaviorandbiophysicalprocessinanintegratedframework.Leontiefinput-outputcoefficientspermitsthecombinationofincompatibleeconomicandbiophysicalproductionfunction.AdisadvantageofLPModelisthatmaygeneratevastamountof‘what-if’resultsifsomeofparametersofthemodelarenotknownwithgreataccuracy.鄂爾多斯高高原人地關(guān)關(guān)系行為機(jī)機(jī)制模型Bio-economicvillageLPModelShort-termanalysis:oneyearduetouncertaintyVillagemodel:appreciatelevelofanalysisObjectivefunction：maximizingbenefitofhouseholdsProductionfunction：Leontiefinput-outputcoefficientsConsumptionfunction：consumptionchoicebaseduponnutritionandpricesunderconstraintsofbasicnutritionintakedemandandhobbySoilconservationprocess：convertedlandsupplyFeedbackofsoilerosiontoproduction：nofeedbackprocessBio-economicvillageLPModel(1)s.t.(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Variabledefinition:householddiscountedutility:period:crop:landtype:landendowment:theareaofcropproducedonlandtypeinperiod:theperunitpriceofcroporlivestockoutput:theyieldfunctionforproductionofcropcorlivestockv:avectorofinputsusedinproductionofcropcorlivestockv:theperunitinputpriceforinputVariabledefinition-continue:thecroporlivestockoutputusedforself-consumption:thecroporlivestockoutputusedforself-supply,suchasfodder,draftanimal:theproductionofunitsoflivestockatperiodt:livestock:thewagelevel,suchasseasonaloff-farmwage,constantoff-farmwagehiringlaborwage:theoff-farmlaborsupplyofseasonalpart-timelabororconstantoff-farmlabor:thehiringlaborsupply:familylabor:familylaborinputforfarmactivities:totallaborinputforfarmactivities:discountrateModulesofLPModelProcesses(73)Production(22):croppingcorrespondingtolandtypeCorn,Millet,Potato,Sunflower,Rapeseed,Beans,Goat,Sheep,Hog,CattleSale(11):Corn,Millet,Potato,Sunflower,Rapeseed,Goat,Sheep,Hog,Mutton,Pork,WoolSelf-consumption(6):Corn,Millet,Potato,Beans,Mutton,PorkPurchase(11):Wheat,Rice,Pork,Mutton,Beef,Vegetable,Fertilizers,Pesticide,seeds,CoalSelf-supply(5):Seeds,Fodder,Manure,FirewoodResourcesupply(17):Landsupply(6),Laborsupply(11)Landdegradation(1):SoilerosionModulesofLPModel-continueConstraints(70)Products(12):Resources(30):landconstraints(7);labortimeconstraints(13);laborallocationconstraints(10):familylabor(3),hiringlabor(7)Balance(25):Nutritionandhumandemand(10);Farminginput(11);Livestockinput(4)Rotation(2)Soilerosion(1)LanduseinGe-zhen-yanVillage,Zhunger,InnerMongoliaThepolicymeasureofconvertingslopefieldintoforestandpasturestartedSince2000,withsubsidyof100kggrainand20Yuanfood-forworkper6.7aCroppingsystemandlanduse

TotalFlatfieldTerracefieldSlopefieldSownareaYieldSownareaYieldSownareaYieldSownareaYield

hakg/hahakg/hahakg/hahakg/haCorn7.676,6604.279,2501.275,1002.133,750Millet6.871,8191.471,8505.411,808Rapeseed3.075802.006601.07500Sunflower2.438850.731,0001.69836Potato2.807,5001.077,1251.737,725Beans0.871,4000.471,5000.401,300Total23.70

4.27

7.00

12.43

Agricultureandfarmeconomy

farmtypeunitTotalFarmhouseholdPart-timehouseholdhouseholdperson21129populationperson814932laborperson563422off-farmlaborperson14410seasonaloff-farmlaborperson936constantoff-farmlaborperson514populationperhouseholdpersonperhousehold3.864.083.56cultivatedlandhaperhousehold1.191.430.87familyincomeYuanperhousehold8,9049,6457,998farmincomeYuanperhousehold5,9459,0182,188off-farmincomeYuanperhousehold2,9606275,810ratioofoff-farmincome%33%7%73%ratiooflivestockincomewithinfarmincome%66%69%51%PricesofagriculturalproductscommodityfarmgatepricesfarmpurchasepricescommodityfarmpurchasepricesCorn0.931.00Wheat2.00Millet0.821.60Rice2.20Potato0.501.00Beef15.00Sunflower2.00Fish14.00Rapeseed2.00Vegetable1.34Mutton8.0014.00Compoundfertilizer2.07Pork8.0010.00Carbamide1.45Wool200Carbonammonia0.72Goat240Cornseed4.86Sheep140Hog800

Soilerosion:EPICresult

SoilerosionvaluesderivedfromEPICModelFieldtypeFlatfieldTerraceSlopefieldSlope0%5%10%Maize0.4304.40012.520Millet0.5505.62015.770Sunflower0.5105.22015.090Rapeseed0.4604.67013.090Potato0.2002.0705.880Beans0.4604.67013.090Note:1)unitistonha-1.simulationresultsaremeansoftenyears.2)simulationresultsaremeansoftenyears.AgricultureandlandusesystemCrop-livestocksystem:corn-goat-sheep-hog.Cornmainlyinflatfieldforfeedandcommercialuse;milletinterraceandslopefieldforstaplefood;rapeseed,sunflowerinterraceandslopefieldforcommercialuse;potatoandbeansforself-consumption.Fieldtypeismostimportantfactoraffectingyield.Levelofinputandtechnologicalchoiceofvariouscropscorrespondtofieldtypes.Soilerosionmodulusdifferbetweenfieldtypesandvariouscrops.FarmeconomySmallholders:farmhouseholds(12)andpart-timehouseholds(9).Farmhouseholdsearnincomefromcrop-livestockactivity(livestockincome:70%).Part-timehouseholdsearnmostincomefromoff-farmactivity(73%).Off-farmjobopportunityislimited.Onlymembersofthevillagecangainrightoflandmanagement.Thereisfewmobilityoflandmanagementright.退耕還林還還草政策對對水土保持持影響的比比較靜態(tài)模模擬模擬結(jié)果與與現(xiàn)狀的擬擬合比較農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格格變動對土土地利用變變化影響的的比較靜態(tài)態(tài)模擬結(jié)果果退耕還林還還草政策對對土地利用用變化和水水土保持影影響的比較較靜態(tài)模擬擬結(jié)果退耕還林還還草補(bǔ)貼對對土地利用用變化和水水土保持影影響的比較較靜態(tài)模擬擬結(jié)果非農(nóng)就業(yè)機(jī)機(jī)會對土地地利用變化化和水土保保持影響的的比較靜態(tài)態(tài)模擬結(jié)果果Comparisonbetweenactualsituationandbaserunresults

unitActualsituationin2002Baserun

TotalfamilyincomeYuan139,141194,403CropproductionCornflatmu64.00.0Cornterracemu19.07.4Cornslopemu32.00.0Feedcornflatmun.a66.0Feedcornterracemun.a53.1Feedcornslopemun.a34.9MilletTerracemu22.00.0MilletSlopemu81.146.6Potatoterracemu16.06.8Potatoslopemu26.00.0Sunflowerterracemu11.00.0Sunflowerslopemu25.460.7Rapeseedterracemu30.053.7Rapeseedslopemu16.00.0

Beanmu13.020.7LivestockGoatfamilylaborhead377.0348.4Shedsheephead123.0734.9Hoghead39.00.0

Grazingcattlehead4.04.0ThebaserunHouseholdsmayrealizeasignificantincreaseinincomewithoutincreaseinsoilerosioniftheyputamuchgreatweightonsedentarylivestockbyusingmaizeandstrawsasfodderinsteadofsellingmaizetoearncashincome,andchangetogrowmuchmorecashcropssuchassunflowerandrapeseedsinsteadofmillet.Oneofprobablereasonoffarmersself-sufficientchoiceisfromconstraintofinvestment.Anotherprobablereasonisfromfarmersriskaversion.PricechangeandlanddegradationChangesinpricesoflivestockwillaffectlivestockchoice,buthavenosignificanteffectsonlandusechoiceaswellassoilerosion.Changesinpriceratiosofcommercialcropsaffectlandusechoice,especiallylandusechoiceofslopefields,andthenhavesignificantimpactsonsoilerosion.Theeffectsofpricechangeonsoilerosiondependonratiooferosionmodulusbetweenconcerningcrops.Off-farmjobopportunityandsoilerosionIncreaseinoff-farmjobopportunitiesforseasonalpart-timelaborshavefeweffectsonlanduseactivities.Increaseinoff-farmjobopportunitiesforconstantoff-farmlaborswillinfluencelandusechoiceandthenlanddegradation.Whilethenumberofconstantoff-farmlaborscontinuestoincreaseandexceedsover25persons,cultivationofmilletinslopefieldswilltendtodecrease.Astheresult,soilerosionwilltendtodecreaseduetowithdrawalofcultivationinslopefieldsalongwithanincreaseinoff-farmjobopportunities.LandconversionpolicyandsoilerosionIntroducinglandconversionpolicywillaffectlandusechoiceofslopefieldsaswellasterracefields,andconcomitantlivestockchoice,thenhavesignificanteffectsonreducingsoilerosion.Subsidytowardsconvertedslopefieldswillencourageconversionofslopefieldsandhavesignificanteffectsonlandusechoice,livestockchoiceaswellassoilerosion.SubsidyandsoilerosionWhenintroducinglandconversionpolicywithoutsubsidy,farmincometendstodecreaseasacostforcombatingsoilerosion.Whileallowanceofmorethan160Yuanper6.67awaspaidforfarmers,soilerosionwillberelievedsignificantlywithanincreaseinfarmincome.Thesubsidyforconvertedslopefieldsinloessplateauincludes100kggrainwithapriceof1.4Yuanperkgand20Yuanoffood-forworkaidper6.7a,whichisequalto160Yuanper6.7a.ConclusionandimplicationAnintegratedbio-economichouseholdmodelmaysimulatetheeffectsofchangeinsocio-economicfactorsonlanddegradationbyinvolvingfarmeconomicbehaviorwithinanintegratedframework.Mathematicalprogrammingapproachisusefultodevelopabio-economichouseholdmodelbecauseitcancombinefarmeconomicbehaviorandbiophysicalprocess.Conclusionandimplication-continueThesoilconservationprogramtoconvertslopefieldsintoforestorpastureisaneffectivewayforcombatingsoilerosion.Areasonablesubsidyascompensationthatishigherthanprofitoflanduseactivityofconvertedslopefieldsmayencouragefarmersjointheconservationprogramandadoptofconversionactivity.Conclusionandimplication-continueFarmersmightgobacktocultivateslopefieldsthathavebeenconvertedintopasturewhenthesubsidystopped.Toconsolidatetheachievementofcombatingsoilerosion,howtodevelopalternativesectorsandtoincreasehouseholdincomeafterfarmersconvertedslopefieldsintopasturebecameaninevitableissue.Aconsiderablepolicyistoencourageandassistfarmerstodevelopsedentarylivestockbyusingcropsproducedfromfieldsasfodderandforagegrassfromtheconvertedslopefields.關(guān)于退耕還還林政策的的進(jìn)一步思思考退耕還林政政策的巨大大作用短期內(nèi)促進(jìn)進(jìn)了坡地退退耕，減少少了水土流流失退耕還林政政策的局限限性恢復(fù)林草植植被V.S.農(nóng)地有效利利用與糧食食安全保障障退耕地有效效利用：糧食食安安全全保保障障退耕耕還還林林政政策策補(bǔ)補(bǔ)貼貼結(jié)結(jié)束束后后的的后后續(xù)續(xù)產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)業(yè)發(fā)發(fā)展展農(nóng)民民收收入入保保障障退耕耕還還林林與與生生態(tài)態(tài)環(huán)環(huán)境境綜綜合合治治理理的的政政策策選選擇擇退耕耕還還林林政政策策與與區(qū)區(qū)域域可可持持續(xù)續(xù)發(fā)發(fā)展展結(jié)束束語語：：人人文文社社會會科科學(xué)學(xué)與與自自然然科科學(xué)學(xué)相相互互融融合合的的必必要要性性人文文社社會會科科學(xué)學(xué)與與自自然然科科學(xué)學(xué)相相互互融融合合的的可可能能性性相關(guān)關(guān)的的研研究究對對象象———人地地關(guān)關(guān)系系與與區(qū)區(qū)域域可可持持續(xù)續(xù)發(fā)發(fā)展展人文文社社會會科科學(xué)學(xué)與與自自然然科科學(xué)學(xué)相相互互融融合合的的必必要要性性人文文社社會會科科學(xué)學(xué)家家只只有有應(yīng)應(yīng)用用自自然然科科學(xué)學(xué)研研究究成成果果，，才才能能對對人人地地關(guān)關(guān)系系自自然然生生態(tài)態(tài)過過程程及及其其機(jī)機(jī)制制有有所所認(rèn)認(rèn)識識應(yīng)用人文社社會科學(xué)研研究方法，，有助于在在自然科學(xué)學(xué)研究成果果基礎(chǔ)上，，加深對人人地關(guān)系動動態(tài)過程及及區(qū)域可持持續(xù)發(fā)展策策略的認(rèn)識識，提出政政策建議Thanks9、靜夜四無鄰鄰，荒居舊業(yè)業(yè)貧。。12月-2212月-22Wednesday,December21,202210、雨中黃葉樹樹，燈下白頭頭人。。01:10:4201:10:4201:1012/21/20221:10:42AM11、以我我獨(dú)沈沈久，，愧君君相見見頻。。。12月月-2201:10:4301:10Dec-2221-Dec-2212、故人人江海海別，，幾度度隔山山川。。。01:10:4301:10:4301:10Wednesday,December21,202213、乍乍見見翻翻疑疑夢夢，，相相悲悲各各問問年年。。。。12月月-2212月月-2201:10:4301:10:43December21,202214、他鄉(xiāng)鄉(xiāng)生白白發(fā)，，舊國國見青青山。。。21十十二二月20221:10:43上上午01:10:4312月月-2215、比不了得得就不比，，得不到的的就不要。。。。十二月221:10上上午12月-2201:10December21,202216、行動出出成果，，工作出出財(cái)富。。。2022/12/211:10:4301:10:4321December202217、做前，，能夠環(huán)環(huán)視四周周；做時(shí)時(shí)，你只只能或者者最好沿沿著以腳腳為起點(diǎn)點(diǎn)的射線線向前。。。1:10:43上午午1:10上午午01:10:4312月-229、沒有失失敗，只只有暫時(shí)時(shí)停止成成功！。。12月月-2212月月-22Wednesday,December21,202210、很多事事情努力力了未必必有結(jié)果果，但是是不努力力卻什么么改變也也沒有。。。01:10:4301:10:4301:1012/21/20221:10:43AM11、成功就就是日復(fù)復(fù)一日那那一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)點(diǎn)小小努努力的積積累。。。12月-2201:10:4301:10Dec-2221-Dec-2212、世間成事，，