中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度可持續(xù)性現(xiàn)狀-SPRP-CN-Index

中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)性探討TheFinancialSustainabilityofUrbanBasicOldAgeInsuranceSysteminChina中國(guó)社科院世界社保探討中心CentreforInternationalSocialSecurityStudies(CISS),ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences(CASS)2016年●北京負(fù)責(zé)人：鄭秉文教授Dir.&Prof.:

ZhengBingwen2016年9月September2016（一）背景介紹：中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度改革三重任務(wù)疊加；ThehistoricalbackgroundofUrbanBasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemReform（二）問(wèn)題表現(xiàn)：中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度可持續(xù)性現(xiàn)狀的六個(gè)突出問(wèn)題；Thefinancialsustainabilitystatusquoofbasicoldageinsurancesystem（三）收支預(yù)料：2015-2050年中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料；Predictionoffundrevenuesandexpenditures：from2015to2050（四）閱歷借鑒：歐盟國(guó)家公共養(yǎng)老金制度改革閱歷；EUpublicpensionsystemreformanditsexperiences（五）政策建議：如何完善中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度；PolicyproposalsonimprovingUrbanBasicpensioninsurancesystem探討報(bào)告基本框架：五個(gè)部分OverallFrameworkoftheproject:FiveParts（一）中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度正處于待遇上調(diào)最快、財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼最多的歷史時(shí)期；Thepensionsystemisintheperiodofrisingpensionbenefitsandsubstantialfinancialsubsidies★1.待遇上調(diào)很快：2005-2015年過(guò)去11年內(nèi)養(yǎng)老金連年上調(diào)，從未間斷，每年上調(diào)10%，全國(guó)人均退休金從2005年的每月714元提高到2014年的2100元，人均提高兩倍多；★From2005to2015,thepensiongrowthrateiskeeping10percent,whichmaketheaveragepensiongrowingfrom714Yuanpermonthin2005to2100Yuanpermonthin2014.★2.財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼最多：過(guò)去11年也是財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼最多和增長(zhǎng)最快的歷史時(shí)期，從2005年的544億元，增加到2015年的4716億元，11年增加8.67倍?！颋inancialsubsidieshaverisedfrom54.4billionYuanin2005to471.6billionYuanin2015.一、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度改革背景ThehistoricalbackgroundofUrbanBasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemReform（二）中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度處于三重任務(wù)疊加的巨大壓力之中；Urbanbasicpensionsystemisunderthegreatpressureofthreestackedtasks中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度尚處于制度參數(shù)調(diào)整、制度結(jié)構(gòu)改革、各子制度必需盡快建立的三項(xiàng)任務(wù)疊加和交織的巨大壓力之中；★“制度參數(shù)調(diào)整”包括：退休年齡接著提高；降低社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率；★systemparameteradjustment:Raiseretirementage；Reducecontributionrateofsocialinsurance；★“制度結(jié)構(gòu)改革”指做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶(hù)試點(diǎn)難以為繼，如何完善個(gè)人賬戶(hù)以?xún)?yōu)化結(jié)構(gòu)；★structuralreformofpensionsystem:howtoimproveindividualaccounts；★盡快建立子制度是指機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)深化改革、建立養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金投資體制和正常待遇水平調(diào)整機(jī)制等；★Theestablishmentofsomesubsystems:thenormalpensionadjustmentmechanismandpensionfundinvestmentsystemneedtobesetupassoonaspossible；一、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度改革背景：三重任務(wù)疊加TheHistoricalBackgroundofUrbanBasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemReform（一）制度的收入實(shí)力低下（Lowincomeabilityofpensionsystem）★制度激勵(lì)性不好導(dǎo)致繳費(fèi)收入實(shí)力很弱，主要體現(xiàn)在：★Thenegativeincentiveofpensionsystem●實(shí)際費(fèi)率低于規(guī)定的法定繳費(fèi)率（actualcontributionrateislowerthanthestatutorycontributionrate）●費(fèi)基小于真實(shí)費(fèi)基(Thecontributionbaseissmallerthantherealcontributionbase)●用上一年社會(huì)平均工資作為核算基數(shù)(usetheaveragesocialwageoflastyearasaccountingbase)（二）抵抗老齡化自動(dòng)平衡機(jī)制缺位（Theabsenceofautomaticbalancemechanismtoresistagingpopulation）★DB型現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付的社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌部分尚未建立起參數(shù)自動(dòng)調(diào)整機(jī)制★Theabsenceofautomaticadjustmentmechanisminthesocialpoolingsystem★DC型完全積累制的個(gè)人賬戶(hù)計(jì)發(fā)月數(shù)表并未隨著預(yù)期壽命的變更進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整★Thepensiondevisorintheindividualaccountsystemhasnotadjusteddynamicallywiththeincreasinglifeexpectancy二、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度可持續(xù)性現(xiàn)狀：六大突出問(wèn)題TheFinancialSustainabilityStatusQuoofOldAgeInsuranceSystem（三）社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌部分可持續(xù)性問(wèn)題日益突顯Thesustainabilityofsocialpoolingisincreasinglyhighlighted★統(tǒng)籌層次低，成為吸入財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼不行估量的無(wú)底洞★L(fēng)owpoolinglevelrequireslargeamountoffinancialsubsidies；★較低的統(tǒng)籌層次不利于建立基金投資體制★L(fēng)owpoolinglevelcan’thelptosetupfundinvestmentsystem；

二、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度可持續(xù)性現(xiàn)狀：六大突出問(wèn)題TheFinancialSustainabilityStatusQuoofOldAgeInsuranceSystem（四）個(gè)人賬戶(hù)制度設(shè)計(jì)存在先天缺陷Thebirthdefectsofindividualaccount★個(gè)人賬戶(hù)設(shè)計(jì)上的天生缺陷，使其須要財(cái)政的間接兜底★Theindividualaccountcannotlivewithoutfinancialtransfer參保人提前死亡的，個(gè)人賬戶(hù)資產(chǎn)可以繼承，超過(guò)平均余命的長(zhǎng)壽者可領(lǐng)取賬戶(hù)養(yǎng)老金直到死亡iftheparticipantsdieearlier,thefundassetsintheindividualaccountcanbeinherited.Andiftheylivelongerthantheaveragelifeexpectancy,theycanreceivethepensionbenefitstodeath.★個(gè)人賬戶(hù)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)難以做實(shí)★Itisdifficulttofullyfundindividualaccount；2013年底，空賬規(guī)模已經(jīng)達(dá)到30955億元，而做實(shí)賬戶(hù)僅為4154億元；Theemptyaccounthasreached3.09trillionYuanattheendof2013,andtherealaccountassetsare415.4billionYuan.

二、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度可持續(xù)性現(xiàn)狀：六大突出問(wèn)題TheFinancialSustainabilityStatusQuoofOldAgeInsuranceSystem二、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度可持續(xù)性現(xiàn)狀：六大突出問(wèn)題TheFinancialSustainabilityStatusQuoofOldAgeInsuranceSystem（五）管理體制不順影響制度的財(cái)務(wù)實(shí)力DisorderManagementSystemaffectsfinancialcapacity★養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)雙重征繳制度并存（稅務(wù)部門(mén)和社保經(jīng)辦機(jī)構(gòu)），導(dǎo)致收入不能到位★Thecoexistofdoublecollectionsystemleadstoinsufficientincome（bythetaxauthoritiesorsocialinsuranceagencyorganizations)★社保經(jīng)辦機(jī)構(gòu)屬地化管理不利于提高統(tǒng)籌層次★socialinsuranceagencyorganizationsareadministratedbythelocaladministrators,whichreducetheefficiencyofthesystem（六）基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度一支獨(dú)大財(cái)務(wù)壓力巨大workersputexcessiverelianceonthebasicoldageinsurancegovernedbythegovernment三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtourbanbasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemOperation（一）基本假設(shè)/Hypothesis1.城鎮(zhèn)化率從2013年的53.7%逐步增長(zhǎng)至2050年的75%。到2050年，人口城鎮(zhèn)化率達(dá)到峰值；Urbanizationratewillgraduallyincreasefromthe53.7percentto75percentin2050anditpeaksatthatpoint.2.GDP實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率由2014年的7.5%降至2050年的4.3%，財(cái)政收入占GDP的比例由2013年的22.7%逐步提高到2030年的25%后保持穩(wěn)定，因此財(cái)政收入增長(zhǎng)率從2014年的10.15%降至2050年的6.28%；AssumingtheactualGDPgrowthratewilldropfrom7.5%in2014to4.3%in2050.ItisforecastedandassumedthattheproportionoffiscalrevenueaccountingforGDPwillgraduallyincreasefrom22.7%in2013to25%in2030,andthenwillremainstableafterwards,fromwhich,itcanbecalculatedthatthefiscalrevenuegrowthratewilldropfrom10.15%in2014to6.28%in2050.3.在崗職工平均工資增長(zhǎng)率從2014年的9.36%降至2050年的6.71%；Itiscalculatedandassumedthatthegrowthrateofaveragesalaryofstaffinpostwilldropfrom9.36%in2014to6.71%in2050.三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation（一）基本假設(shè)/Hypothesis4.個(gè)人賬戶(hù)記賬利率等于在崗職工平均工資增長(zhǎng)率,將從2015年的10.01%下降到2050年的6.71%；ItisassumedthataccountinginterestrateofIndividualPensionAccountequalsthegrowthrateofaveragesalaryofstaffinpostinthepreviousyear,whichwilldecreasefrom10.01%in2015to6.71%in2050.5.從2018年起先提高退休年齡，女性與男性同時(shí)推遲退休年齡，女性工人每2年提高1歲，女性干部和全部男性職工每4年提高1歲，到2037年女性退休年齡為60歲、男性為65歲；Increasingtheretirementagefrom2018,todelaytheretirementageforfemaleandmaleatthesametime,increasetheretirementageoffemaleworkersby12monthsevery2years,andincreasetheretirementageoffemalecadresandallmaleworkersby12monthevery4years;by2037,theretirementageforfemalewillreach60yearsold,andtheretirementageformalewillbe65yearsold.6.賬戶(hù)基金制度累計(jì)結(jié)余的投資收益率為7%；AssumingrateofreturnofaccumulatedbalanceofUrbanBasicPensionsystemis7%.三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation（二）城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料Demographicsofenterpriseemployees’basicpensionsystem★表12015-2050年城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度撫養(yǎng)比預(yù)料年份201520182020202420302037204020452050撫養(yǎng)比1:3.11:3.41:3.61:3.71:3.41:2.91:2.61:2.41:1.8資料來(lái)源：精算團(tuán)隊(duì)供應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù)?！颰able1

DependencyRatioofenterpriseemployees’Pensionsystem（predictionvalue,2015to2050,%）年份201520182020202420302037204020452050DependencyRatio1:3.11:3.41:3.61:3.71:3.41:2.91:2.61:2.41:1.8三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料FinancialSustainabilityPredictionofEnterpriseEmployees’BasicPensionSystem★基金收入：持續(xù)增加，2020年以前基金收入增長(zhǎng)速度保持在14%左右，之后基金收入規(guī)模擴(kuò)張速度放緩，占當(dāng)期財(cái)政收入的比重從2020年的21.02%上升到2035年的23.87%，之后緩慢下降到2050年的22.97%?！颮evenue.Inthecalculationperiod,thefundrevenuewillkeepincreasing.Before2020,thegrowthrateoffundrevenuewillkeepat14%andthenthegrowthisslowdown.Fundrevenuewillaccountfor17%to24%ofhomochronousfiscalrevenue.Theratiowillincreasefrom21.02%in2020to23.87%in2035,andthengraduallydecreaseto22.97%in2050.★基金支出：2030年之前，基金支出占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入緩慢上升，之后制度贍養(yǎng)率上升并處于高位，基金支出規(guī)模起先擴(kuò)大，其占當(dāng)期財(cái)政收入的比例快速上升到2050年的24.13%?！顴xpenditure.Fundexpenditureswillaccountfor13%~24%ofhomochronousfiscalrevenue.Before2030,theratioincreasegradually.Andthenthedependencyratioisatthehighlevel,thefundexpendituresbegintoexpandandtherationwillincreaseto24.13%in2050.三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料FinancialSustainabilityPredictionofEnterpriseEmployees’BasicPensionSystem圖12015-2050年城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金收支預(yù)料

資料來(lái)源：依據(jù)精算團(tuán)隊(duì)供應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù)。Figure1FundRevenueandexpenditureofEnterpriseEmployee’sBasicPensionSystem三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation（三）機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtoGOPI((governmentorgansandpublicinstitutions)PensionSystemOperation★表12015-2050年機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位在職人員預(yù)料單位：萬(wàn)人分類(lèi)20152020202520302035204020452050在職人數(shù)3791.03791.03848.34121.44173.64210.64228.84220.7退休人數(shù)1628.31729.11799.71898.51971.12107.62308.02550.7資料來(lái)源：張盈華，《機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位“名義賬戶(hù)”制養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)及其長(zhǎng)期財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)性分析》，載《開(kāi)發(fā)探討》，2015年第3期，第8頁(yè)。

★Table1DemographicPredictionofGOPI（2015to2090,10thousand）20152020202520302035204020452050Staffinpost3791.03791.03848.34121.44173.64210.64228.84220.7Retirees1628.31729.11799.71898.51971.12107.62308.02550.7Source:ZhangYinghua,NotionalDefinedContributionPensionSystemofGOPIandAnalysisonitsLong-termFiscalSustainability,ResearchonDevelopment,NO.3,2015:p.8.三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation（三）機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料★表22015-2050年機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位和企業(yè)的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度贍養(yǎng)率比較分類(lèi)20152020202520302035204020452050機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)43.045.646.854.660.4企業(yè)32.227.527.029.132.938.344.653.4結(jié)論：因機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位招募條件較嚴(yán)格，要求應(yīng)征者具備較高學(xué)歷水平，機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位的內(nèi)部贍養(yǎng)率明顯高于企業(yè)PredictionandEvaluationtoGOPI(governmentorgansandpublicinstitutions)PensionSystemOperation★Table2DependencyRatioofGOPIorUrbanEnterprisePensionsystem分類(lèi)20152020202520302035204020452050GOPI43.045.646.854.660.4Enterprisesemployees32.227.527.029.132.938.344.653.4Conclusion：ThedependencyRatioofGOPIishigherthanenterprisesemployees’oldageinsurance.三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtoUrbanbasicoldAgeInsurancesystemOperation(三)機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位制度基金收支預(yù)料/PredictionandEvaluationtoGOPI★基金收入：持續(xù)增加，各年基金收入占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入比在4-6%之間。2050年之前，機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位在編人數(shù)擴(kuò)增，基金收入規(guī)模擴(kuò)張速度較快，占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入的比例從4%升至5.5%；★Revenue.Inthecalculationperiod,thefundrevenuewillkeepincreasing,butthegrowthratewillincreasefirstandthendecrease.Thegrowthrateoffundrevenuewillbeconstantat7%between2040and2046,anditwilldecreaseto6.8%in2050(seeFigure2).Besides,fundrevenuewillaccountfor4%~6%ofhomochronousfiscalrevenue.Before2050,theratiowillrisefrom4%to5.5%,after2050,itwillriseslightlyfrom5.5%to6%,primarilyasaresultofexpectationthatthepermanentstaffofGOPIwillincreasefirstanddecrease.★基金支出：先減后增，各年基金支出占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入比在4-9%之間。在2035年之前，延退政策抑制領(lǐng)取待遇人數(shù)擴(kuò)增的速度，基金支出占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入比重下降；2035年之后，延退過(guò)渡期結(jié)束，加之制度贍養(yǎng)率上升并處于高位，基金支出規(guī)模起先擴(kuò)大；★Expenditure.Inthecalculationperiod,fundexpenditurewilldecreasefirstandthenincrease,whichwillaccountfor4%~9%ofthehomochronousfiscalrevenue.Thegrowthrateoffundexpenditurewillbeabout7%,andafter2034,theratewillincreasefrom8.1%in2034to11.4%in2041.Before2035,thedelayretirementpolicyrestrainsthegrowthinthenumberofbeneficiaries,andtheratiooffundexpendituretohomochronousfiscalrevenuedrops;after2035,thetransitionperiodofdelayretirementwillbeover,andthedependencyratiowillriseandremainhigh,thescaleofthefundexpenditurewillbeginto三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtourbanbasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemOperation資料來(lái)源：依據(jù)精算團(tuán)隊(duì)供應(yīng)的數(shù)據(jù)繪制而成。

Figure2ThefundrevenueandfundexpenditureofGOPI(%)圖2機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位基金收支預(yù)料(%)三、中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)料PredictionandEvaluationtourbanbasicOldAgeInsuranceSystemOperation★歷史債務(wù)：即轉(zhuǎn)軌成本，是原有制度下所積累的養(yǎng)老金權(quán)益的折現(xiàn)值，包括“老人”的退休金和“中人”視同繳費(fèi)的賬戶(hù)價(jià)值。各年分?jǐn)偟臍v史債務(wù)占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入的比重逐年下降，大約每10年下降一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；★HistoryDebtsofthesystem.ThatisTransitionCostofpensionsystemwhichequalstothecurrentvalueofthepensionrightsandinterestsaccumulatedundertheoldsystem,includingtwopartsofthe“oldworkers”pensionexpenditureand“transitionworkers”pensionexpenditurewhichiscorrespondingtodeemedcontribution.Thehistorydebtswillbesharedyearbyyear,whichdeclinesbyonepercentagepointapproximatelyevery10year.

Table3

Theproportionof

historydebtsinhomochronousfiscalrevenue（in2015to2050,%）圖32015-2050年機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位制度歷史債務(wù)占同期財(cái)政收入的比重樣本國(guó)家：德國(guó)、瑞典、法國(guó)和西班牙SampleCountries:Sweden、Germany、FranceandSpain（1）政府負(fù)責(zé)的DB制度待遇水平將合理下降PensionBenefitsofDBplanwillreducegradually（2）提高法定退休年齡，漸漸實(shí)現(xiàn)男女同齡退休Raiseretirementage,graduallyrealizingtheequalretirementageofmenandfemale（3）建立獎(jiǎng)懲機(jī)制，通過(guò)懲處提前退休、嘉獎(jiǎng)延遲退休，充分發(fā)揮人力資本作用。EstablishtheRewardsandPunishmentsMechanismlinkedwithlegalRetirementAge（4）運(yùn)用精算技術(shù)修正制度參數(shù)，雙重約束下引入人口老齡化因子建立財(cái)務(wù)自我反饋機(jī)制，增加財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)EstablishFinancialBalanceMechanismviaintroducingtheagingpopulationfactor（5）發(fā)揮市場(chǎng)機(jī)制作用，逐步從單一的公共養(yǎng)老金制度模式向多層次養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度體系邁進(jìn)Makefulluseofmarketmechanismtopushthepensionsystemfromasinglemodetomultiple-levelpensionsystem

四、歐盟國(guó)家公共養(yǎng)老金制度改革的閱歷借鑒EUPublicPensionSystemReformandItsExperiences（1）降低社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率，合理確定繳