Morgan Stanley-Global Video Games Stars aligning heading into 2023此為英文文檔

GlobalInsight2GlobalInsighthEquityAnalyst+822399-4936Seyon.Park@MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+EquityAnalyst+8136836-8410Masahiro.Ono@MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+ResearchAssociate+8523963-1592Joanne.CY.Lau@MorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.+EquityAnalyst+656834-6251Mark.Goodridge@MorganStanley&Co.LLCEquityAnalyst+1212761-7252Matthew.Cost@MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+ResearchAssociate+8136836-8411Mayuko.Yone@MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+EquityAnalyst+44207677-5875Omar.Sheikh@MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+ResearchAssociate+8522239-7208Cathy.Tang@MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+EquityAnalyst+8523963-3838Alex.Poon@MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+EquityAnalyst+8522848-6918Gary.Yu@MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+ResearchAssociate+44207677-5846Tzer.Siew@GlobalInsightMorganStanleyResearch3IndustryIndustryViewIndustryViewIndustryViewIndustryViewIndustryViewhaveunderperformedkeyindicesyear-to-date,eventhoughthepelinesawmultipleresultofdevelopmentissues,con-oricherfor2023,whichshouldsup-portstrongergrowthheadingintoxpandingtheledbasetomillionThedbringmoretripleAtitles,whichin-turnshouldleadtonsexpectedtonormalizefromsetoshowagradualrecoveryheadinginto2023.Whileatvisibilityislowwerowthoeurpreferenceforstockspuredbasefor4GlobalInsightMorganStanleyResearch5GlobalInsighteurkeydriverswhichweseesupth6823021492393404475466745823021492393404475466745GlobalInsightrnthlyactiveusersWeseethisleadingtopublishersreupinaartopublisherscomingoutwithmoretitlestoridetheconsoleup-DomesticImport80000000040000002022resumptionoflicensingpostcrackdown2019resumptionoflicensingpostcrackdown2021avgmonthlydomesticgamelicensingis972018/2018/2018019/20194/4/1/20194/104/10/2019/13/2019/28/20197/29/20197/29/201988/20/201999/29/20192019201920192025/2020/24/20204/274/27/2020/28/2020/15/20207/29/20207/29/202088/21/202099/29/202020202020202020212021/19/20214/274/27/2021/24/2021/11/20217/22/20217/22/20214/14/11/2022/20227/11/20227/11/2022/1/202299/13/2022SeptamendmentMorganStanleyResearch7U.S.ConsumerSpending($U.S.ConsumerSpending($bn)16%38%21%11%-6%45%10%-3%-1%6%Y/Y19%44%19%-8%Y/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YGlobalInsight$25Recession$20$15$10$5$0$21.3$19.7$17.9$12.5$12.5$10.5$10.3$9.4$10.5$10.3$9.4$6.5$6.5$6.2$5.1$3.7$3.$3.7199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009PhysicalConsoleGamesConsoleHardware&AccessoriesJan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22 n Ease ElectronicArts ActivisionBlizzard SOFT TakeTwo soft nami SquareEnix8GlobalInsightarketwntstratethatcreativityisstillflourishinginthegamingworld,butshouldthisfallshortwecouldseedownsidetoourlonger-termindustrygrowthoutlook.eatksuchasDNF,MapleStoryandFIFA,whilethepipelineislookingstrong,ledby"KartriderDrift"andnewtitlesfromawithawelldiversifiedironmentinbytitlesincludingHarryPotterin2H22,andNarakaBladepointmobileandJusticemobile(subjecttolicenseestearlow13xcalendarized2023P/E(9x2024),whichweseeoacombinedwithagrowinginstalledbaseforSwitchFThestrongstartforSplatoon3boostsourconvictionofveMorganStanleyResearch9GlobalInsightGlobalInsight10robustementdirection,additionofnewcontent,oradjustingthelaunchlishersdnWeacknowledgethatgamedelaysarenotuncommonforpub-mThatsaidasonecanseebelowfromExhibittohybridworkmodels.SomeofthetitlesthatwerestrategicallyrelikelytolaunchingiventhedetailbelowandpublishersareinapositiontodeliveroneMorganStanleyResearch11GlobalInsight12GlobalInsightMorganStanleyResearch13GlobalInsight14GlobalInsightMorganStanleyResearch15GlobalInsight16GlobalInsightiverviewaimingforovermnunitswhichwouldmarkarecord-highforoofntfairamountofsoftwaremajorfirstpartytitlesExhibit12:InstalledunitsforPS4andPS5:weexpectinstalledExhibit13:InstalledbaseforXbox:weestimateSeriesX/Sto(millions)MorganStanleyResearch17GlobalInsightYweakeningconsumptionpower,inourview.MostWhileweseegrowthratesin4Q22and2023remaininglow/uncertainduetothelowvisibilityofminorsnormalizesfromSeptember022onwardsresumedlicenseapprovalinApril2022,aftersus-esoflicensesthisyearThefifthdRmbbn35.030.025.0.0-28.9228.925.124.624.524.124.323.723.822.622.425.124.624.524.124.323.723.822.622.420.8oOthers0Mobiley/ygrowth%02016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E18GlobalInsighthequalitydevelopmentofcultureimports/exports,importedhigh-qualityculturalproductstopromoteWiththepotentialexpansionofgamelicensepilotlgamelicensesremainsgcautiouslyoptimisticthatatoenmarket.Wenotethatkeyimporttitlesthathavean(Ubisoft)DomesticImport8007006005004003002001000782730721492283279263164402244551121237187191100105129110109551698518867163131841171668686129874560676973201/5/20182/2/20183/5/20185/4/20181/9/20191/29/20193/8/20194/1/20194/10/20195/13/20196/28/20197/29/20198/20/20199/29/201910/23/201911/14/201912/30/20191/22/20202/25/20203/24/20204/27/20205/28/20206/15/20207/29/20208/21/20209/29/2020782730721492283279263164402244551121237187191100105129110109551698518867163131841171668686129874560676973201/5/20182/2/20183/5/20185/4/20181/9/20191/29/20193/8/20194/1/20194/10/20195/13/20196/28/20197/29/20198/20/20199/29/201910/23/201911/14/201912/30/20191/22/20202/25/20203/24/20204/27/20205/28/20206/15/20207/29/20208/21/20209/29/202010/16/202011/30/202012/31/20202/2/20212/7/20213/19/20214/27/20215/24/20216/11/20217/22/20214/11/20226/7/20227/11/20228/1/20229/13/2022Septamendment2019resumptionoflicensingpostcrackdown2021avgmonthlydomesticgamelicensingis97edNoofgamelicensesapproved9,3694,04,050,1071,5701,4115314+202016201720182019202020212022YTDMorganStanleyResearch19燕云十六聲暗黑破壞神：不朽哈利波特：魔法覺醒永劫無間手游逆水寒手燕云十六聲暗黑破壞神：不朽哈利波特：魔法覺醒永劫無間手游逆水寒手游綠茵信仰星海求生泰亞史詩零號任務湮滅效應Disorder三國誅將錄代號：OnmyojiIdolProject代號：Ragnar?k(諸神黃昏)伊格效應冰汽時代：最后的家園工作細胞IP手游螢火突擊巔峰極速陳情令代號：世界全軍破敵之戰(zhàn)：戰(zhàn)錘隱世錄陰陽師：妖怪小班未知記錄戰(zhàn)春秋彈彈幻境零號任務曾經是人類ZoZ最后一小時WhereWindsMeetDiabloImmortalHarryPotter:MagicAwakenedNaraka:BladepointMobileJusticemobileFaithonFootballFieldStarsurvivalTheEpicofTiaMissionzeroCodename:ATLASTrinityGearsDisorderSanguoBladeCode:OnmyojiIdolProjectCodename:Ragnar?kEGOEffectFrostpunkCellsatworkLostLightRacingmasterTheUntamedCode:WorldCodenameT/ThesusTotalWarBattles:WARHAMMERGhostWorldChroniclesOnmyoji:monsterclassUnknownrecordTheCodeName:RiderZhanchunqiuTantanhuanjingMissionzeroOncebeHumanZoZ:FinalhourGatesofAges:EonStrifeunVEILtheworldOpenworldMMORPGCardCollection,RPGMOBAOpenworldSPGSandbox,openworldMMORPGhGlobalInsightrssllarecurrentlybeingdevelopedforpossiblereleasein2H23.WempanyetoGameTitle(EN)GameTitle(CN)GenreDungeon&FighterMobile地下城與勇士ActionCrossFireHD穿越火線HDFPSRisingFire火源計劃FPSLegendofHonour光明勇士TBCDeformers百變球球ActionNeedforSpeedOnline極品飛車OL手機版TBCBattleriteRoyale冠軍盛典MOBAPlanetHandcraft手工星球SandboxYlands艾蘭島SandboxUndawn黎明覺醒FPSSoulLand斗羅大陸：魂師對決3DRPGParagon虛幻爭霸MOBAFortnite堡壘之夜FPSH1Z1生存王者FPSPlayerunknownBattleGround絕地求生FPSRobocraft羅博造造SandboxMagic:TheGathering萬智牌：競技場TCGTomClancy'sRainbowSixSiege彩虹六號：圍攻(WeGame)FPSRingofElysium無限法則FPSLineageIIRevolution天堂II:革命RPGRocoKingdom洛克王國手游RPGZhiJing-yong致金庸OpenworldRPGAvatar:Reckoning阿凡達：重返潘多拉ShootingRPGTheDivision2全境封鎖2Open-worldshootingRPGhGameTitle(English)GenreGameGameTitle(English)GenrePipelineMobilegamesMOBAShootingSLG,ACGShootingRPGSLGRPGRPGSurvivalACGSurvival,ShootingRacingCardCollectionMMOShootingSLGACGPuzzleCyberPunk,AVGMOBAMMORPGCasualMOBASurvivalShootingSLGTacticalherosummoningRPG20U.S.ConsumerU.S.ConsumerSpending($bn)16%38%21%11%-6%45%10%-3%-1%6%Y/Y19%44%19%-8%Y/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YY/YGlobalInsightnscownturnsndinofandresilientgamesgrew+45%/+10%in2001/02and+19%/-8%in2008/09,consumerspending.Tothatpoint,wenotethattimespentbyinwhenGDPgrowthedecelerationfromlevelsobservedforvelycheapformofentertainment$25Recession$20$15$10$5$0$21.3$19.7$17.9$12.5R$12.5$10.5$10.3$9.4$10.5$10.3$9.4$6.5$6.5$6.2$5.1$3.2$3.$3.2199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009PhysicalConsoleGamesConsoleHardware&AccessoriesMorganStanleyResearch21AmericansTimeSpentPlayingGames(minutes/day)'03-'08TimeSpentCAGR:5%AmericansTimeSpentPlayingGames(minutes/day)'03-'08TimeSpentCAGR:5%8%6%5%4%1%0%6%6%5%5%4%4%4%3%GlobalInsight85YY0%Y/Y0%Y/YY/YY/YYY-5%Y/YY/Y-5%Y/YY/Y0%Y/YY/YMinutesPerDayKRWtn3010%50502007-30.9%20089.0%200917.4%201012.9%201118.5%201210.8%2013-0.3%20142.6%20157.5%20161.6%201720.6%20188.7%20199.0%202021.3%20216.1%ConsoleMobileOnlinePCCaféOthersGDPgrowth%22383634323836343230282624222026242220864GlobalInsightAswementionedintheprevioussection,webelievethatthesemarketandsupplysJan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22arch2Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22arch Nexon NetEase ElectronicArts ActivisionBlizzard NCSOFT TakeTwo Ubisoft Konami SquareEnixAverage Nexon NetEase ElectronicArts ActivisionBlizzard NCSOFT TakeTwo Ubisoft Konami SquareEnixAverageMorganStanleyResearch23GlobalInsightmps3-Sep-22harearget(localbn)(USDmn)ve(USDmn)F2022eF2023eF2022eF2023eF2022eF2023eBITDAeFeendyieldeFedF2022eF2023etedStatesActivisionBlizzardIncElectronicArtsInc*Take-TwoInteractive*PlaytikaHoldingSciPlayCorpdStatesAvg,061,716243.5%.1%.5%.4%.2%8%%37844988173%6%4%%8%%%%%%%%%%%59.132.713.1240100028.121.09.624.98.4754.02.95.414.437.9%29.3%.7%2%1%5%49apanNintendoCoLtd^^JPY320004,19729605812.1.1%.9%9.08.45%.1%8%%JPY54830022145221.220.4%%7%.8%BandaiNamcoHldg*^JPY95127243621.420.83%3%KonamiHldgJPY200028175078.0.31%5%Capcom*^JPY6454422.1.1%.7%SquareEnixHldg*JPY4000209391559.26.91%4%%SegaSammyHldg*^JPY0234591%6.25.09%6%JPY28%9%8.55.5GungHoOnline^JPY19992.2iJPY3785%1%4%6%loplJPY2924.527.745.9.1%5%0%anAvg472%4%.5%9%KraftonKRW205,500OW310,0009,7136,8341,41316,20615,522%%%%TKRW330,000EW350,0006,7014,7151,80820,84815,08615.821.96%8.22%arbleKRW55,200UW50,0004,5233,1821,966(724)1,754NM31.5%5%%%.8%%PearlAbyssKRW53,300UW46,0003,2622,2952493532,423NM22.00%%%%.8%WeMadeEntertainment^KRW49,050NCNA1,6781,1814311893,218NM%9.9ComuS^00NCNA1,0247205345,0936,24515.42%%9.76.6DoubleUGamesKRW42,200EW42,0007165044363,5407,25111.95.8%3.02.2.3%.1%.9%.79.19%.3%eUbisoftEntertainment*CDProjekt.750044132939025533.08%5.7%%%9%%0%%vg6%0%7.7%6.9%inaNetEaseIncliKingsoftCorpLtd2823.025.0550.327.5,268585508728.329.7NM.84%%7%5%8.8%%%%%%.3%%5.0%.7%%6.7%Avg.79.2%13.3%43%3%6%GlobalPeerAvg98%8%2.4lyearsendinginMarchcomparedwithSeptemberDecembercompsofothercompaniesforlike-for-likecomparison.24987654321060%60%59% 987654321060%60%59% GlobalInsightExhibit26:Monthlymobilegamegrossings:globalrevenues(ex-China)wereshowingnegativeyygrowthcominginto2022Havingledglobalmarketgrowth,mobilegamingisclearlythelargestsegmentwithintheUS$230bnvideogamingmarketweestimatefor2022(excludinghardwareandads),accountingforroughlyhalfofindustryrevenues.Givenrea-withtheimpactofastrongUSdollar,weareobservingasharpslowdownformobilegames,withrevenuegrowthturningnegativeonay/ybasisinrecentmonths,accordingto3rdpartyndUSbn)41%31%26%11%3%5%5%7%10%9%6%-7%-7%-8%-10%-11%-10% Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22ROWex-ChinaKoreaEuropeJapanUSAy/ychg%(rhs)esuchasthestrongdollararetemporaryandgamepenetration,aremorestructuralandweat70%levelsthepastcoupleofyearsandwetheneedtocomeoutwithinnovativebreak-andattractpotentialconsumerswhohaveleftnthsRmbbn5.00.00-ChinamobilegamerevenueYoY(RHS)0%40%30%0%0%-10%-20%-30%65%65%59%59%201620172018201920202021(mins)201620172018201920202021MorganStanleyResearch25GlobalInsightncontentethenghopefulthattheexpandedlineupofnewtitlesslatedforutkillingtotakemoreriskonnewcontent#Japanorea20202021H220202021H220202021H21loxloxCandyCandyCrushSagaMonsterMonsterStrikeUmaUmaMusumePrettyDerbyUmaUmaMusumePrettyDerbyLineageLineage2MLineageLineage2MLineageW2CandyCandyCrushSagaCandyCandyCrushSagaloxFate/GrandOrderPuzzles&DragonsMonsterStrikeLineageMLineageMLineageM3CoinCoinMasterCoinCoinMasterCoinCoinMasterKnivesKnivesOutFateFate/GrandOrderPuzzlesPuzzles&DragonsRiseRiseofKingdomsOdinOdin:ValhallaRisingOdinOdin:ValhallaRising4PokemonGoGarenaGarenaFreeFireEvonyEvony:TheKing'sReturnProProBaseballSpiritsAProProBaseballSpiritsAFateFate/GrandOrderV4V4MiracleSwordLineageLineage2M5GardenscapesPokemonGoPokemonGoPuzzlesPuzzles&DragonsMonsterMonsterStrikeProBaseballSpiritsAKingdomKingdomoftheWindsLineageWDungeonDungeon&FighterMobile26-GlobalInsighttizationhasbeenakeydriverbehindthefastepubstofocustheirdevelopmentresourcestothemobileMMOtoodrivefuturemarketgrowthExhibit31:GarenagrewstronglyonthebackofBattleRoyale-2022e2023e2024e2025ecentlybeennegativelysuchasryQQQQQ2Q22MorganStanleyResearch27GlobalInsight3.Shortformvideoapotentialthreatnentertainment,whichrepresentedabout40%oftotalinandKuaishouincludingresumed.However,thereisariskthatTencentVideoChatntcompetitionontimespentforcasualgamerswhoareexpectinganimmediaterisktorevenues,asengagedconsistently28GlobalInsight)gameslate;2)higherinstalledbasefornext-genconsoles;3)akNote:Valuationsreferstocurrentmultiplesrelativetopreviouspeak/troughSource:MorganStanleyResearchMorganStanleyResearch29GlobalInsightLucasFilmlikelyinFY'25.Investorexpectationsarelow,aftermodestsuccesswithscautiousapproachaftersomedisappointingreleases.Yettobeesdrivinganacceleratedpaceofttainmentgiants,whohavealreadyjoinedorwanttojoinourosetomultirs302022/232023/242024/2525GlobalInsightNote:ActivisionBlizzard,Take-TwoInteractiveandElectronicArtsarecoveredbyBrianNowakandMatthewCost.Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearchhMorganStanleyResearch31TTWOCoreFranchiseRevenue(bn)TTWOCoreFranchiseRevenue(bn)$0.2$0.5$1.9$0.3$0.4$1.6$1.3$2.6$1.8$1.2$2.0$1.3GlobalInsightOdelacoreTTWOrevenueCAGRdingagetonearrecordEBITDAmarginsjustbelowCOVIDofsngareconfidentinthecompany’sabilitytoachievethisleveloftiononnear-termearnings,as(byourmath)TTWOiscurrently$5.0$4.5$4.0$3.5$3.0$2.5$2.0$1.5$1.0$0.5$0.0FY22A-FY25ECoreFranchiseRev.CAGR:~13%FY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY22AGTAFranchiseNBA2KFranchiseRestofCoreFranchises32GlobalInsightllfoliojustrecentlyconcludeditsglobalracingtestearlierthismonth(August31-September6).AsasequeltotheoriginalKartrideritygloballyative3rdpersonshooter,first,butrecentlychangeditsplanstoexpectationsfromtheSwedenbasedstudioledbyPatricksignificantlyraiseXoUS$mn#11126-Aug29-Aug1-Sep4-Sep7-Sep10-Sep13-Sep16-Sep19-Sep22-SeprevenueGooglePlaygrossingrankrhsMorganStanleyResearch33380%380%350%380%380%350%149113312%GlobalInsightvenueforecastweforecastanotherstrong450400350300250200150100500450400350300250200150100500(JPYbn)20192020201920202022E2023ESource:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(E)estimatesROWNAmerica/EuropeJapanKoreaChinaExhibit42:NexonOPforecast:weseenewtitlesstackingononinYbnAdjustedOPAdj.OPmarginYbnhinawithlowerprofitability.n1009080706050403020-NetEasemobilegamerevenue(Rmbbn)ChinaOverseasFY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30E3458%90%88%90%90%95%95%81%72%74%77%82%82%75%70%58%60%62%62%62%63%63%62%FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY058%90%88%90%90%95%95%81%72%74%77%82%82%75%70%58%60%62%62%62%63%63%62%FY02FY03FY04FY05FY06FY07FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22EFY23EFY24E90.0%70.0%50.0%30.0%10.0%0%-30.0%-50.0%GrossmarginbysegmentGames InnovativebusinessesincludingmusicYoudaoMusicGlobalInsightlyNetEasegamerevenuegrowth35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%30%14%11%21%21%20%23%15%19%11%15%5%5%15%9%22%15%6%16%6%13%11%6%9%11%15%11%15%10%12%10%9%1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q30%14%11%21%21%20%23%15%19%11%15%5%5%15%9%22%15%6%16%6%13%11%6%9%11%15%11%15%10%12%10%9%1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q22E4Q22E1Q23E2Q23E3Q23E4Q23EMobilegamerevenueUS$mnDiabloImmortalGrossing(IOS+Android).0GlobalChinaUSSouthKoreaJapan.0.04.0.000.06/2/20226/6/20226/10/20226/14/20226/18/20226/22/20226/26/20226/30/20227/4/20227/8/20227/12/20227/16/20227/20/20227/24/20227/28/20228/1/20228/5/20228/9/20228/13/20228/17/20228/21/20228/25/20228/29/20229/2/20229/6/20229/10/20229/14/2022Mbysegment25,00020,00015,00010,0005,00023,45421,64320,46917,83619,45917,20215,632 25,00020,00015,00010,0005,00023,45421,64320,46917,83619,45917,20215,632 (1,503)(1,764)(1,024)(1,160)(421)(680)(148)30,000 NTESNTESex-YoudaoandmusicMusicYoudao25,79130,00024,55525,6524,5550-(5,000)FY19FY20FY21FY22EFY23EMorganStanleyResearch35GlobalInsighttcapNetcashQ22EnterprisevalueLess:musicattributableLess:YoudaoattributableVforgames