2025年煤炭分析和預(yù)測 -Coal 2022 - Analysis and forecast to 20252022 - IEA2022

2022Analysisandforecastto2025TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstomandsidemanagementandmuchughitsworktheIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,11associationcountriesandbeyond.Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Source:IEA.ationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:IEAmembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgxicoNetherlandsNewZealandorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEAIEAassociationcountries:ArgentinaChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandealaltractAbstractoalsitsinthecentreofclimateandenergydiscussionsbecauseitgestenergysourcegloballyforelectricitygenerationandfortheproductionofironandsteelandofcement,aswellastheestsinglesourceofcarbondioxideCOemissionsThecurrentenergycrisishasforcedsomecountriestoincreasetheirrelianceoncoalinspiteofclimateandenergytargets.athoroughanalysisofrecenttrendsincoaldemand,supply,trade,costsandpricesagainstabackdropofconcernaboutenergysecurityandgeopoliticaltensionsItalsoprovidesforecaststo2025fordemand,supplyandtrade–byregionandbycoalgradeThereportcontainsadeepanalysisofChinawhoseinfluenceonthecoalmarketisunparalleledbyanyothercountryandinanyotherfuel.TheIEAsCoalMarketReporthasbeenpublishedeveryDecembersincebecomingtheglobalbenchmarkforcoaldemand,supplyandtradeforecastsItisessentialreadingforanyonewithaninterestinclimateandenergy.llTableofcontentsTableofcontentsExecutivesummary 5Demand 10Supply 35Trade 53ThermalCoal 57MetallurgicalCoal 66Pricesandcosts 72Prices 73Costs 86Coalminingprojects 95Generalannex 107llyllyGlobalcoaldemandissettorisein2022amidtheupheavaloftheenergycrisisCoalmarketshavebeenshakenseverelyinwithtraditionaltradeflowsdisrupted,pricessoaringanddemandsettogrowby1.2%,reachinganall-timehighandsurpassing8billiontonnesforthefirsttimeInlastyear’sannualmarketreport,Coal2021,wesaidthatglobalcoaldemandmightwellreachanewpeakin2022or3beforeplateauingthereafter.Despitetheglobalenergycrisisouroveralloutlookremainsunchangedthisyear,asvariousfactorsareoffsettingeachother.Russia’sinvasionofUkrainehassharplyalteredthedynamicsofcoaltrade,pricelevels,andsupplyanddemandpatternsin2022.lfuelpriceshaverisensubstantiallyinwithnaturalgasshowingthesharpestincreaseThishaspromptedawaveoffuelswitchingawayfromgaspushingupdemandformoreprice-competitiveoptionsincludingcoalinsomeregions.Nonetheless,highercoalpricesstrongdeploymentofrenewablesandenergyefficiencyandweakeningglobaleconomicgrowtharetemperingtheincreaseinoverallcoaldemandthisyear.InChina,whichaccountsfor%ofglobalcoalconsumption,prolongedandstringentCovidlockdownshaveweighedheavilyoneconomicactivityunderminingcoaldemandAtthesametime,droughtsandheatwavesinChinathissummeracceleratedcoalburningtomeetasurgeinpowerdemandforairconditioning.sedinelectricitygenerationthelargestconsumingsectorisexpectedtogrowbyjustover%in2022.Bycontrast,coalconsumptioninindustryisexpectedtodeclinebyover%,mainlydrivenbyfallingironandsteelproductionamidtheeconomiccrisis.oalpowergenerationrisestorecordlevelsaturalgaspricesledtosignificantfuelswitchingtocoalinelectricitygenerationinEurope,althoughbothgasandcoalgenerationincreasedasthegrowthofwindandsolarwasinsufficienttofullyoffsetlowerhydroandnuclearpoweroutput.InChinalowhydropoweroutputinthesummeramidabigheatwavepushedcoalpowergenerationsignificantlyhigher.InAugust,coalpowergenerationinChinaincreasedbyaround15%year-on-yeartoover500terawatt-hours(TWh).ThismonthlylevelofgenerationishigherthanthetotalannualcoalpowergenerationofanyothercountryexceptIndiaandtheUnitedStates.InIndiaandChina,wherecoalisthebackboneofelectricitysystemsandgasaccountsforjustafractionofpowergeneration,theimpactofsteepergaspricesoncoaldemandhasbeenlimited.Nevertheless,increasedcoaluseinthesecountrieshasreplacedsomegas,whichhasbeenpurchasedbyotherregionswillingtopaymoreforit.Coalpowergenerationwillrisetoanewrecordin2022,surpassingits2021llysThisisdrivenbyrobustcoalpowergrowthinIndiaandtheEuropeanUnionEUandbysmallincreasesinChina–anditcomesdespiteadeclineintheUnitedStates.turnoncoalistemporaryEuropeandtheEuropeanUnioninparticularhasbeenoneoftheregionshardesthitbytheenergycrisis,givenitsrelianceonRussianpipelinesuppliesofnaturalgas.LowerhydroandnuclearpoweroutputduetoweatherconditionscombinedwithtechnicalproblemsinFrenchnuclearpowerplantsputadditionalstrainsontheEuropeanelectricitysystemInresponse,someEuropeancountrieshaveincreasedtheiruseofcoalpowergenerationwhilealsoacceleratingthedeploymentofrenewablesand,insomecases,extendingthelifetimesofnuclearplants.eatofgasshortagesandpotentialissuesensuringsufficientpowersystemadequacy,somecoalplantsthathadcloseddownorbeenleftinreservehavere-enteredthemarket.Inmostcountriesthisinvolvedalimitedamountofcoalpowercapacity.OnlyinGermany,with10gigawatts(GW),isthereversalatasignificantscaleThishasincreasedcoalpowergenerationintheEuropeanUnionwhichisexpectedtoremainatthesehigherlevelsforsometimeButredoubledeffortstoimproveenergyefficiencyandexpandrenewableswillseeEUcoalgenerationanddemandreturntoadownwardtrajectoryassoonas2024inourforecast.obalcoaldemandissettoplateauthroughbutdevelopmentsinChinaecastglobalcoaldemandplateausaroundthelevelofbilliontonnesthrough.However,giventhecurrentenergycrisiswithallitsuncertaintiesalurchintogrowthorcontractionispossibleThiscouldbedrivenbychangesinglobaleconomicactivityweatherconditionsfuelpricesorgovernmentpolicies–amongmanyotherpotentialvariables.opmentsinChinamaywellhavethelargestimpactontheoutlookforglobalcoaldemandsinceChinaaccountsformorethanhalfofitChinaspowersectoraloneaccountsforone-thirdofglobalcoalconsumptionCoalconsumptioninChinagrewstronglyinbutgrowthisexpectedtoremainrelativelystagnantatanaverageofayearto2025,largelybecauseoftheincreaseinrenewablepowergenerationInthe2-2025period,weexpectChinasrenewablepowergenerationtoincreasebyalmostothetotalpowergenerationofJapantodayMeanwhileIndiascoalconsumptionhasdoubledsince2007atanannualgrowthrateofanditissettocontinuetobethegrowthengineofglobalcoaldemand.astcoaluseisforecasttomaintainitsdownwardtrajectoryintheUnitedStatesandtofallconsiderablyintheEuropeanUnionby.Atagloballevel,weexpectnewrenewablegenerationtocoveralmostofadditionalelectricitydemandthrough2025.WithamodestincreaseinnuclearpowergenerationandhighgasllycesprevailingcoalpowergenerationincreasesslightlytoThereforeintheabsenceoflow-emissionsalternativesthatcanreplacecoalatscaleintheironandsteelsectorinthenearterm,globalcoaldemandissettoremainflatthroughourforecastperiod.Anall-timehighforcoalproductionin2022ChinaandIndiatheworldslargestcoalconsumersarealsothebiggestproducersandinaddition,thetoptwocoalimporters.Inresponsetopricerisesandsupplyshortages,Chinaand,toalesserextent,India,pushedupdomesticcoalproductionaftersummerInMarch2022,Chineseproductionreachedanewmonthlyhighanditissettorisetoanewannualrecord,withexpectedgrowthof%forthefullyear,reducingtheneedforimportsandreplenishingstocksInIndia,thegovernmenthastriedtoincreaseproductionforalongtimetoreduceimports.In2021,coalproductionreached800milliontonnesforthefirsttime.InourforecastIndiasproductionsurpasses1billiontonnesby2025.Indonesiatheworldsthird-largestproducer,isalsoexpectedtoexpandproductiontoreachanewhighin2022,withexportsplayingamoreimportantrolethandomesticdemand.WithminorgrowthintheUnitedStatesandeveninEurope,globalcoalproductionwillriseabove8billiontonnesin2022,itshighestlevelever.nalcoaltradeisreshufflingasaresultofvasionofUkrainehastriggeredaseriesofbansandnctionsonRussiabymanycountriesandcompaniesRussiaisthethirdlargestcoalexporterintheworldandthesanctionshaveasaresultgivenrisetoareshufflingofglobaltradeflowsasbuyers,especiallyinEurope,seekalternativesupplies.Inaddition,owingtothelackofrailcapacity,partoftheRussiancoalvolumespreviouslysentbyrailtoEuropeorshippedfromnorthwesternRussianportstowardsEuropecannotberedirectedtotheeastorthesouth.ThishasresultedinadeclineofRussianexportsandatighteningofthemarketThegapleftbyRussiancoalsuppliesinEuropehasbeenlargelyfilledbySouthAfrica,ColombiaandothersmallerproducerssuchasTanzaniaandBotswana.Indonesia,whichstartedtheyearbanningcoalexportsinordertomeetitsowndomesticdemand,onceagaindemonstrateditsflexibilityasitshifteditsexportstoEuropetohelpoffsettheRussianshortfall.Bycontrast,theUnitedStatesisnotaswingsupplieranymore.Strugglingwithinvestment,workforceshortagesandtransportbottlenecks,UScoalexportsaresettodeclinemarginallydespitehighprices.Meanwhile,rainsandfloodsinAustraliahavecurtailedproduction,contributingtothetightmarket.TightmarketsandwarpremiumpropelledcoalpricestoelsinnddemandimbalancescombinedwithhighgaspricespushedthermalcoalpricestounprecedentedhighsinOctoberAlmostimmediately,ChinaandIndiaacceleratedproductioninordertoeasethemarket,andpricessoonfellbacktolowerlevelsWhenIndonesiabannedexportsinJanuary22,internationalpricesroseagainwhileChinesepricesremainedmorellystableasthelocalmarketwaswellsupplied.Russia’sinvasionofinlateFebruaryhoweversparkedasurgeingaspriceswhichinturnpushedcoalpricesuptonewrecordsinMarchandduringthesummerFurthersupportforpricescamefromawarndanincreasingperceptionofariskofphysicalenergyshortagesPriceshavemoderatedsincethesummerassupplyworrieshaveeasedRainsinAustraliafurtherexacerbatedmarkettightnessduringtheyearexceptionallypushingpricesforhigh-qualitythermalcoalabovethoseforhighvaluecokingcoalWiththeEUbanonRussiancoalphasedinfromApriltoearlyAugust,pricesforRussiancoalhavebeensharplydiscounted.rdprofitsforproducersthereislittlepetiteformoreinvestmentincoalminingassetsTherecordhighsforcoalpricesseensinceOctober2021andarenewedfocusonenergysecuritysinceRussiasinvasionofthavebeenexpectedtodriveanuptickininvestmentoalmineassetsHoweveroutsideChinaandIndiawhereesticproductionhasbeenrampeduptoreduceexternalncetherearenostrongsignsofreversaloftheinvestmenttrendsGovernmentsbanksandinvestors–aswellasminingcompaniescontinuetoshow,ingeneral,alackofappetiteforinvestmentincoal,particularlythermalcoal.alalalalGlobalcoaldemandbreaches8billiontonnesthresholddespiteslowgrowthin2022Globalcoalconsumptionreboundedbyastrongto929milliontonnes(Mt)in2021,afterasharpdeclinethepreviousyearduetotheonsetoftheCovid-19pandemic.Arobusteconomicrecovery,especiallyincountriesthatrelyheavilyoncoal,suchasthePeoplesRepublicofChina(hereafter“China”)andIndia,whilehighernaturalgaspricespromptedawaveoffuelswitchingtocoal,withpowergenerationup8%to5344Mt.Increasedindustrialactivityboostedcoalusefornon-powerapplicationsby2.2%to2585Mt.Chinaisbyfarthelargestcoalconsumingcountry,accountingforofglobaldemand.Overall,China’scoalconsumptionincreasedby.6%to4232Mtin2021,withthestrongestgrowthinthefirsthalfoftheyearbeforeslowinginthesecondhalf.ldemandinIndiathesecondlargestconsumerincreasedbyanevensharperor128Mt,in2021.OthercountriesreportingsignificantgainsweretheUnitedStates+15%/+66Mt),Germany+26Mt)andPoland(+12%/+13Mt).OnlyafewcountriesrecordeddeclineslastyearwithSouthAfricapostingthelargestfallat-5%(-9Mt).rastglobaldemandgrowthforcoalisexpectedtoslowmarkedlyinrisingbyjust1.2%butstillreachinganewrecordof5Mt,slightlyabovethe2013level(7997Mt).Thelowergrowthlargelyreflectstheweakerglobaleconomy,withGDPforecasttoaverage2%in2022asitstruggleswiththeenergycrisis,risinginflationandstrainedsupplychaindisruptions.saconvergenceoffactorsissupportinganincreaseincoaldemandFirst,tightnaturalgassuppliesandtheresultinghighgaspricesaredrivingsomecountriesandcompaniestoturntorelativelycheapercoalSecond,heatwavesanddroughtsinsomeregionsoftheworlddroveupelectricitydemandandreducedhydropowergenerationcreatingagapthathadtobefilledbymostlydispatchablethermalpowerplants.Last,nuclearpowergenerationwasexceptionallyweakin2022,especiallyinEurope,whereFrancehadtoshutdownasignificantportionofitsnuclearcapacityformaintenance.ThelargestincreaseincoaldemandthisyearisexpectedinIndiaMt),followedbytheEuropeanUnion(+6%/+29Mt)andChina+18Mt),mainlyledhigherbystrongerpowersectoruseStillwhilecoalfiredpowergenerationinChinaandIndiaisrisingtokeeppacewithstrongerdemandsomeEuropeanuntrieshavebeentemporarilyswitchingtocoalduetorecordighpricesfornaturalgaslowhydropowergenerationandmaintenance-relatedclosuresatnuclearplants.AsignificantdeclineincoalconsumptionisseenintheUnitedStatesMtwheretheshiftfromcoaltogas-firedowergenerationcontinuesandcoalproducersstruggleafteryearsofunderinvestment.alalGlobalcoalconsumptionsettoplateauthrough2025000000400000000Globalcoalconsumption25200020052010201520202025ChinaIndiaOtherAsiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnionRestofworldYChangesinglobalcoalconsumption025008100000000000 8025803898239823912020202120222025RestofworldOtherAsiaChinaIndiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnionTotalYalalGlobalcoalpowergenerationhitsanotherrecordin2022Totalelectricitydemandreboundedby.2%in2021asthestrongcoveryintheglobaleconomyandadverseweatherconditionsboostedconsumptionInresponsetolowhydropowergenerationndweakwindconditionsinsomeregionscoalfiredgenerationroseby62TWh),intandemwithan8%increase(+392Mt)incoalconsumptioninthepowersector.thinelectricitydemandhasmoderatedtoanestimatedintemperedbytheslowdownintheworldeconomy,whichoffsetincreasedpoweruseduetoexceptionalheatwavesinsomeregionsElectricitydemandgrowthinChinaandIndiaisabovetrend,andforecasttoriseby4%and7%,respectively.bleenergywillmeetapproximatelyoftheadditionaldemandinwhiletheresidualof~221TWhwillbecoveredbycoalandnaturalgasThecurrentgasshortageandresultinghighericesaresupportingcoalbasedpowergenerationworldwidetablyintheEuropeanUnionwherenaturalgasisparticularlyexpensiveduetotheRussianFederationhereafterRussia)cuttingsuppliesInChinaandIndiawheregasdoesnotplayabigeinpowertheimpactofhighgaspricesoncoaldemandismoremutedConsequentlysomeEuropeancountriespostponedscheduledclosuresofcoalpowerplantsandactivatedcoal-firedreservecapacitytolimitgasusageinthepowersector.Intotal,weforecastcoalpowergenerationtoincreaseby1.8%to10339TWh,anewall-timehigh.Overall,weexpectcoaldemandforpowergenerationtoriseby4%to5472Mt,withChinaconsumingmorethanhalfoftheincrease.Fromtoglobalelectricitydemandisforecasttogrow.8%annuallyonaverage,orbyanabsoluteof~2496TWh.Renewableenergywillprovidethemajorityshareofadditionaldemandat%.Theremaininggapof~83TWhwillbecoveredbycoalandgasfiredpowergeneration.ThelargestincreasesincoalburnareforecastforChina(+5%),India(+7%)andSoutheastAsia4%).Meanwhile,coal-firedpowergenerationwillcontinuetocontractintheUnitedStates(-18%)whileareturntoadecliningtrajectoryisexpectedfortheEuropeanUnion(-29%).alalTWh249722552021-20222022-2025Stronggrowthinrenewableswillsupplylion’sshareofadditionalpowerdemand,withcoalandgasfillingtheremainingmodestgapTWh249722552021-20222022-2025Additionalglobalpowerdemandandgenerationbysource,202525001590000demandRenewablesNuclearandothersCoalGas0YGaspricemarkers25IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:ArgusMediagroup.Allrightsreserved.alalNon-powerthermalcoalconsumptionstablein2022-2025sidethepowersectorthermalcoalisusedinvariousotheroperationssuchascementproductionorindustrialandresidentialheatapplicationsIn2021,non-powerthermalcoalconsumptionincreasedby2.8%to1475Mt,accountingfor22%oftotalthermalcoaluseIndiapostedthelargestincreaseinthermalcoaldemandfornonpowerusesup16%in2021,mainlyduetostronggrowthinindustrialproductionInChina,demandroseonlymarginally),drivenbythecountry’seffortstoreducethermalcoaluseintheresidentialsectorbutalsobyathermalcoalshortageinthesecondhalfof021,whichweighedonindustrialconsumption,e.g.cementproduction.coaldemandfornonpowerpurposesisexpectedtoremainstableasgrowthinIndiaoffsetsadeclineinChina.AnoverallweakeconomicperformanceisbehindthedownturninChinasdemandInparticular,lowercementproductionweighedonthermalcoaldemandasdidongoingeffortstoreducecoalconsumptionforresidentialheatingandsmallindustries.Bycontrastthermalcoalconsumptionintheconversionsector(i.e.coalto-liquidsandcoal-to-gas)roseaspartofChina’sstrategytoincreaseenergysecuritybyproducingfeedstockssuchashydrogenfromdomesticcoal.India’sthermalcoaldemandoutsidethepowersectorisexpectedtorise7%in2022becauseofhigherindustrialoutput.omtothermalcoaldemandfornonpoweruseisforecasttorise0.3%peryearasindustrialproductioncontinuestoexpandespeciallyinIndia.However,non-poweruseinChinaissettocontinuecontractingwithincreaseddemandfromtheconversionsectormorethanoffsetbylowerconsumptioninhighenergy-intensiveindustriesandsustainedeffortstoreducecoalinheatingandsmallindustries.Changesinthermalcoalconsumptionfornonpowerpurposesbyion0002020-20212021-20222022-2025IEA.CCBY4.0.alal20252025Afteradropin2022,globalmetallurgicalcoaldemandtoremainstablethrough2025icalmetcoalwhichincludescokingcoalhardmediumandsemisoftandpulverisedcoalinjection(PCI)coal,isaprimaryingredientinsteelmakingFurthermorecoke(producedbyheatingcokingcoalintheabsenceofoxygenisusedtoproducecarbides,ferroalloysandothercompounds.Therefore,ourforecastisbasedonsteelproductionprojectionsfromorganisationssuchastheWorldSteelAssociationaswellasoutlooksforindustrialproduction,GDPgrowth,amongotherfactors.Globalmetcoalconsumptionincreasedto110Mtin2021,assteelproductionrecoveredfromapandemic-relateddeclineinmostmajorsteel-producingregions,includingIndia(+13%/+9Mt),theEuropeanUnion13%/+7Mt)andtheUnitedStates/+4Mt).However,inChina,theworld’slargeststeelproducermetcoaldemandfellby2.5%(-19Mt)asenergyshortagesandaweakerconstructionsectorcurbedsteeloutput.ntrastintotalmetcoalconsumptionisexpectedtodeclinebyor30Mt,largelyduetohighenergypricesandslowerglobaleconomicgrowthThelargestdeclineisexpectedinChina.7%/-12Mt),followedbyRussia(-6%/-4Mt)andtheEuropeanUnion(-3.9%/-2.3Mt).FromtometcoalconsumptionisforecasttobestableAt1078Mtby2025,demandformetallurgicalcoalisforecasttobewellbelowtheprepandemiclevel,asChina’ssteelproductionisexpectedtoremainmuted.Intotal,loweruseintheEuropeannJapanKoreaRussiaandChinaisoffsetbyastrongdemandincreaseinIndiaandtherestoftheworld,mainlySoutheastAsia.Metcoalconsumptionandannualchanges50202020212022ChinaEuropeanUnionRestofworld02020-20212021-2022IEA.CCBY4.0.Changesinmetallurgicalcoalconsumption2025836110042022TotalChinaIndiaRussiaEuropeanUnionJapanandKoreaRestofworldYalalChina'scoalconsumptionreboundedin2021butthereafterplateausthrough2025China’seconomygrewstronglyinthefirsthalfof2021,drivingthe1.8%,andmetallurgicalcoalconsumption,primarilyforsteelcountry’scoaldemandhigher.Coalsupplycouldnotkeeppacewithproduction,by-1.7%.Overall,thepowersector’sgrowthdominates,demandgrowthinthefirstsixmonthsoftheyear,however,leadingandChina’scoaldemandwillreachanewall-timehighoftosevereshortagesstartinginthesecondhalfof2021,evenas~4250Mtin2022,slightlyabovethe2021level(+0.4%).yeartoMtthehighestever.WhereasthermalcoalOuryeartoMtthehighestever.WhereasthermalcoalOurforecastforChina’scoaldemandthrough2025isunderpinnedconsumptionincreasedto3511Mt,mainlyforpowergenerationconsumptionincreasedto3511Mt,mainlyforpowergenerationmetallurgicalmetcoaldemanddeclinedby2.5%toMthamperedbyenergyshortagesandasluggishconstructionsector.Afterpostingstronggrowthlastyear,in2022China’seconomyweakenedinlargepartduetothegovernment’szero-CovidpolicythathasledtoseverelockdownsandweighedheavilyondomesticconsumptionindustrialproductionandsupplychainbottlenecksInadditionthecollapseofChinasrealestatemarkethassharplyreducednewconstructionactivitywhichhasupendeddemandforcementandsteel.Weassumeannualgrowthof~4.7%onaverageforGDPand~5%forindustrialproduction.China’selectricitydemandisforecasttoincreaseby~5%.theseassumptionsweexpectChinascoalconsumptionwillriseataslowerrateof0.7%annually,thoughitwillstillreachanewhighofMtbyGrowthwillbedrivenmainlybythectordespiteintenseeffortstoexpandnuclearandeenergycapacityThermalcoaldemandinnonpowersectorswillmaintainthedecliningtrendofrecentyearsassmall,icientcoalboilersarecontinuouslyreplacedbygasdistrictndelectricsolutionsChinasmetcoalconsumptionChina'seconomyisexpectedtoexpandbyonly3.1%in2022.appearstohavealreadyreachedapeakin2021,andwillstabiliseExceptforthepandemicyearthisisthelowesteconomicandslightlydeclineuntil2025.Outsideofpower,theonlysectorgrowthsince1977.For2022,weexpectcoal-firedpowergenerationwithincreasingcoaldemandiscoalconversion,e.g.theproductiontoincreasemodestly(+1.8%),resultingincoaldemandof2664Mt.ofliquidfuels,syntheticmethaneandchemicalsfromcoal.Thermalcoaldemandfornon-powerusesisexpectedtodeclinebyalalYear-on-yearpercentagechangesforvariouseconomicatorsinChinaJanuaryOctober20%%%-5%-20%generationSteelproductionproductionIEA.CCBY4.0.Note:Coal-firedpowergenerationvaluesarenotavailableonamonthlybasis.Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina(2022),StatisticalDatabase.AnnualchangesincoalconsumptionbygradeanduseinChina,2025Mt0202320242025SteamcoalpowerSteamcoal(non-power)MetcoalChangeincoalconsumptionYalalCoal-firedpowergeneration–thebackboneofChina’selectricitysystemChinaisbyfarthelargestcoalconsumingcountry,accountingforoftheworldsdemandCoalamountstomorethan60%oftheyenergyconsumptionmakingitthebackboneofChina’seconomy.Thepowersector2wasresponsiblefor~62%ofChina’stotalcoaldemandin2021,or2617Mt.InthefirsthalfofcoalconsumptioninChinaspowersectorfellbyanestimated3%duetoacombinationofweakerdemandandasharpyearonyearriseinhydropowergeneration.However,inthesecondhalfoftheyear,asevereheatwaveledtohigherelectricitydemandforcoolingwhileadroughtincentralandsouthwestChinareducedhydropowergeneration.Asaresult,electricityshortagesdevel