學(xué)習(xí)壓縮包經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理chapter

1133總需求與總供給AggregateDemandandAggregateSupply22短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)

Short-RunEconomicFluctuations經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)年復(fù)一年地波動(dòng)Economicactivityfluctuatesfromyeartoyear.在大多數(shù)年份里，物品與服務(wù)的生產(chǎn)是上升的Inmostyearsproductionofgoodsandservicesrises.在過(guò)去50年，平均來(lái)說(shuō)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)每年增長(zhǎng)約3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。Onaverageoverthepast50years,productionintheU.S.economyhasgrownbyabout3percentperyear.在一些年份，正常的增長(zhǎng)沒(méi)能出現(xiàn)，導(dǎo)致了衰退。Insomeyearsnormalgrowthdoesnotoccur,causingarecession.

33短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)

Short-RunEconomicFluctuations衰退是實(shí)際GDP下降、收入減少、失業(yè)上升的時(shí)期ArecessionisaperiodofdecliningrealGDP,fallinges,andrisingunemployment.蕭條是嚴(yán)重的衰退Adepressionisasevererecession.44關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵事實(shí)

ThreeKeyFactsAboutEconomicFluctuations經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)是不規(guī)則和不可預(yù)測(cè)的。Economicfluctuationsareirregularandunpredictable.經(jīng)濟(jì)當(dāng)中的波動(dòng)常常被稱作經(jīng)濟(jì)周期（或譯商業(yè)周期）Fluctuationsintheeconomyareoftencalledthe

businesscycle.大多數(shù)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量一起波動(dòng)。Mostmacroeconomicvariablesfluctuatetogether.隨著產(chǎn)出下降，失業(yè)率上升。Asoutputfalls,unemploymentrises.55RealGDP

實(shí)際GDP短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)一瞥ALookAtShort-RunEconomicFluctuations66短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)一瞥：中國(guó)ALookAtShort-RunEconomicFluctuations:China資料來(lái)源：《中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值核算歷史資料，1952－1995》，《中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒》以及作者計(jì)算。(a)實(shí)際GDP(1952=100)77關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵事實(shí)ThreeKeyFactsAboutEconomicFluctuations大多數(shù)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量一起波動(dòng)。Mostmacroeconomicvariablesfluctuatetogether.大多數(shù)衡量某種收入或生產(chǎn)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量幾乎同時(shí)波動(dòng)。Mostmacroeconomicvariablesthatmeasuresometypeofeorproductionfluctuatecloselytogether.雖然許多宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量一起波動(dòng)，他們波動(dòng)的幅度并不同。Althoughmanymacroeconomicvariablesfluctuatetogether,theyfluctuatebydifferentamounts.88短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)一瞥ALookAtShort-RunEconomicFluctuations(b)InvestmentSpending投資支出99短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)一瞥：中國(guó)ALookAtShort-RunEconomicFluctuations:China(b)投資支出(1952=100)1010短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)一瞥：中國(guó)ALookAtShort-RunEconomicFluctuations:China實(shí)際GDP與投資支出(增長(zhǎng)率%)投資實(shí)際GDP1111關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的三個(gè)關(guān)鍵事實(shí)ThreeKeyFactsAboutEconomicFluctuations隨著產(chǎn)出下降，失業(yè)上升。Asoutputfalls,unemploymentrises.實(shí)際GDP的變化和失業(yè)率的變化呈反向關(guān)系。ChangesinrealGDPareinverselyrelatedtochangesintheunemploymentrate.在衰退時(shí)期，失業(yè)大幅上升。Duringtimesofrecession,unemploymentrisessubstantially.1212短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)一瞥ALookAtShort-RunEconomicFluctuations(c)UnemploymentRate失業(yè)率1313解釋短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)

ExplainingShort-runEconomicFluctuations古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本假設(shè)是古典二分法與貨幣中性。Thebasicassumptionsofclassicaleconomicsaretheclassicaldichotomyandmonetaryneutrality.按照古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，我們?cè)诓灰朊x變量（貨幣供給、價(jià)格水平）的情況下，就能夠考察實(shí)際變量（實(shí)際GDP、實(shí)際利率和失業(yè)）的決定。Accordingtoclassicaleconomics,weareabletoexaminethedeterminantsofrealvariables(realGDP,therealinterestrate,andunemployment)withoutintroducingnominalvariables(themoneysupplyandthepricelevel.)大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家相信，古典理論描述了長(zhǎng)期中的世界，但沒(méi)有描述短期中的世界。Mosteconomistsbelievethatclassicaltheorydescribestheworldinthelongrunbutnotintheshortrun.1414解釋短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)

ExplainingShort-runEconomicFluctuations短期內(nèi)，實(shí)際和名義變量高度相關(guān)。Intheshortrun,realandnominalvariablesarehighlyintertwined.貨幣供給的變化能夠暫時(shí)地將實(shí)際GDP移到其長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)之外。ChangesinthemoneysupplycantemporarilypushrealGDPawayfromitslong-runtrend.總需求與總供給模型

TheModelofAggregateDemandandAggregateSupply經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家使用總需求與總供給模型來(lái)解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)圍繞其長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)的短期波動(dòng)Economistusethemodelofaggregatedemandandaggregatesupplytoexplainshort-runfluctuationsineconomicactivityarounditslong-runtrend.1616總需求與總供給模型

TheModelofAggregateDemandandAggregateSupply短期經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)模型集中關(guān)注兩個(gè)變量的行為。Themodelofshort-runeconomicfluctuationfocusesonthebehavioroftwovariables.（以實(shí)際GDP衡量的）經(jīng)濟(jì)中物品與服務(wù)的產(chǎn)出。Theeconomy’soutputofgoodsandservicesmeasuredbyrealGDP.（以CPI或GDP平減指數(shù)衡量的）整體價(jià)格水平。TheoverallpricelevelmeasuredbytheCPIortheGDPdeflator.1717總需求與總供給……

AggregateDemandandAggregateSupply...EquilibriumOutput均衡產(chǎn)出QuantityofOutput產(chǎn)出數(shù)量PriceLevel價(jià)格水平0Equilibriumpricelevel均衡價(jià)格水平AggregateSupply總供給AggregateDemand總需求1818總需求曲線

TheAggregateDemandCurve總需求曲線表示家庭、企業(yè)或政府在任一價(jià)格水平上想要購(gòu)買的物品與服務(wù)的數(shù)量。Theaggregatedemandcurve

showsthequantityofgoodsandservicesthathouseholds,firms,andthegovernmentwanttobuyateachpricelevel.1919總需求曲線

TheAggregateDemandCurve其他條件不變，經(jīng)濟(jì)中整體價(jià)格水平的下降增加了物品與服務(wù)的需求數(shù)量。Otherthingsequal,andecreaseintheeconomy’soveralllevelofpricesraisesthequantityofgoodsandservicesdemanded.價(jià)格水平的上升減少物品與服務(wù)的需求數(shù)量。Anincreaseinthepricelevelreducesthequantityofgoodsandservicesdemanded.2020總需求曲線

TheAggregate-DemandCurve...QuantityofOutputPriceLevel0AggregateDemand總需求P1Y1Y2P22.…增加了物品與服務(wù)的需求數(shù)量increasesthequantityofgoodsandservicesdemanded.1.價(jià)格水平的下降A(chǔ)decreaseinthepricelevel...2121總需求曲線為什么向下傾斜

WhytheAggregateDemandCurveIsDownwardSloping總需求曲線向下傾斜的原因與單個(gè)市場(chǎng)需求曲線向下傾斜的原因有所不同。Thereasonforthedownwardslopingaggregatedemandcurveisnotthesameasforthedownwardslopingdemandcurveinanysinglemarket.在單一市場(chǎng)上，某一商品價(jià)格上升，消費(fèi)者傾向于用另一更為廉價(jià)商品替代，引起該商品需求量下降。Inasinglemarket,whenthepriceforagoodincreases,consumerstendtosubstituteforacheapergood,thusthequantitydemandedforthatgooddecreases.這一替代效應(yīng)在所有價(jià)格都上升時(shí)不存在。Thissubstitutioneffectdoesnotexistwhenallthepricesincrease.2222總需求曲線為什么向下傾斜

WhytheAggregateDemandCurveIsDownwardSloping回顧：GDP（總支出）的四個(gè)組成部分（消費(fèi)、投資、政府支出、凈出口）構(gòu)成了對(duì)物品與服務(wù)的總需求。Recall:ThefourcomponentsofGDP(totalexpenditure)contributetotheaggregatedemandforgoodsandservices.AD≡C+I+G+NX2323總需求曲線為什么向下傾斜

WhytheAggregateDemandCurveIsDownwardSloping價(jià)格水平與消費(fèi)：財(cái)富效應(yīng)ThePriceLevelandConsumption:TheWealthEffect價(jià)格水平與投資：利率效應(yīng)ThePriceLevelandInvestment:TheInterestRateEffect價(jià)格水平與凈出口：匯率效應(yīng)ThePriceLevelandNetExports:TheExchange-RateEffect2424價(jià)格水平與消費(fèi)：財(cái)富效應(yīng)

ThePriceLevelandConsumption:TheWealthEffect價(jià)格水平的下降提高了貨幣的真實(shí)價(jià)值，使得消費(fèi)者更加富有，鼓勵(lì)他們支出更多。Adecreaseinthepricelevelraisestherealvalueofmoneyandmakesconsumerswealthier,whichinturnencouragesthemtospendmore.消費(fèi)支出的上升意味著對(duì)物品與服務(wù)更大的需求數(shù)量。Thisincreaseinconsumerspendingmeanslargerquantitiesofgoodsandservicesdemanded.2525價(jià)格水平與投資：利率效應(yīng)

ThePriceLevelandInvestment:TheInterestRateEffect低物價(jià)減少了人們持有的現(xiàn)金人們選擇更多的儲(chǔ)蓄降低了利率，這鼓勵(lì)了對(duì)投資品的更大支出投資支出的增加意味著物品與服務(wù)的需求數(shù)量更大。2626價(jià)格水平與凈出口：匯率效應(yīng)

ThePriceLevelandnetExports:TheExchange-RateEffect美國(guó)的價(jià)格水平下降導(dǎo)致了美國(guó)的利率下降投資者轉(zhuǎn)向外國(guó)的投資,美元供給增加美元貶值外國(guó)物品變貴,本國(guó)物品變便宜進(jìn)口下降,出口增加凈出口支出增加2727總需求曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)

WhytheAggregateDemandCurveMightShift總需求曲線向下傾斜，表示價(jià)格水平的下降增加了物品與服務(wù)總的需求數(shù)量。Thedownwardslopeoftheaggregatedemandcurveshowsthatafallinthepricelevelraisestheoverallquantityofgoodsandservicesdemanded.然而，在給定價(jià)格水平上，許多其他因素影響物品與服務(wù)的需求數(shù)量。Manyotherfactors,however,affectthequantityofgoodsandservicesdemandedatanygivenpricelevel.當(dāng)這些其他因素中的任一種發(fā)生改變，總需求曲線移動(dòng)。Whenoneoftheseotherfactorschanges,theaggregatedemandcurveshifts.2828總需求曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)

WhytheAggregateDemandCurveMightShift來(lái)自消費(fèi)的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromConsumption股市漲跌Stockmarketboom/crash關(guān)于消費(fèi)與儲(chǔ)蓄權(quán)衡的偏好改變Preferenceschanges:consumption/savingtradeoff增稅減稅Taxhikes/cuts來(lái)自投資的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromInvestment更好的技術(shù)Bettertechnology樂(lè)觀或悲觀的預(yù)期Expectations,optimism/pessimism貨幣政策M(jìn)onetarypolicy投資稅收減免InvestmentTaxCredit2929總需求曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)

WhytheAggregateDemandCurveMightShift來(lái)自政府購(gòu)買的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromGovernmentPurchases增加聯(lián)邦國(guó)防開支Increaseonfederaldefensespending州或地方政府新修公路或?qū)W校State&localspendingonnewroads,schools來(lái)自凈出口的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromNetExports歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮或衰退Booms/recessionsinEurope由于外匯市場(chǎng)上國(guó)際投機(jī)行為帶來(lái)的貨幣升值或貶值A(chǔ)ppreciation/depreciationresultingfrominternationalspeculationinforeignexchangemarket3030總需求曲線的移動(dòng)

ShiftsintheAggregateDemandCurve...QuantityofOutputPriceLevel0Aggregatedemand,D1P1Y1D2Y23131總供給曲線

TheAggregateSupplyCurve總供給曲線表示企業(yè)在任一價(jià)格水平上生產(chǎn)和銷售的物品與服務(wù)的數(shù)量。Theaggregatesupplycurveshowsthequantityofgoodsandservicesthatfirmsproduceandsellateachpricelevel.3232總供給曲線

TheAggregateSupplyCurve經(jīng)濟(jì)中整體價(jià)格水平的上升傾向于增加物品與服務(wù)的供給數(shù)量。Anincreaseintheoveralllevelofpricesintheeconomytendstoraisethequantityofgoodsandservicessupplied.價(jià)格水平的下降傾向于減少物品與服務(wù)的供給數(shù)量。Adecreaseinthelevelofpricestendstoreducethequantityofgoodsandservicessupplied.3333總供給曲線……

TheAggregateSupplyCurve...QuantityofOutputPriceLevel0aggregatesupply總供給Y1P1Y22.減少了物品與服務(wù)的供給數(shù)量

reducesthequantityofgoodsandservicessupplied.P21.價(jià)格水平的下降A(chǔ)decreaseinthepricelevel3434總供給曲線為什么向上傾斜

WhytheAggregate

SupplyCurveSlopesUpward在一個(gè)理想的狀態(tài)下，當(dāng)價(jià)格水平變化時(shí)，企業(yè)面對(duì)的所有價(jià)格以同等比例變動(dòng)，企業(yè)不會(huì)改變其產(chǎn)出。Inanidealstate,whenthepricelevelchanges,allthepricesfirmsface,includingpricesofoutputsandinputs,changeinthesameproportion,thusnofirmswillchangetheirproductionatall.3535總供給曲線為什么向上傾斜

WhytheAggregate

SupplyCurveSlopesUpward粘性工資理論TheSticky-WageTheory錯(cuò)覺(jué)理論TheMisperceptionsTheory粘性價(jià)格理論TheSticky-PriceTheory3636粘性工資理論

TheSticky-WageTheory名義工資的調(diào)整是緩慢的，或者說(shuō)，在短期內(nèi)是“粘性的”——工資并不隨著價(jià)格水平的下降而立即調(diào)整。Nominalwagesareslowtoadjust,orare“sticky”intheshortrun:Wagesdonotadjustimmediatelytoafallinthepricelevel.更低的價(jià)格水平使得雇傭和生產(chǎn)的利潤(rùn)更低。Alowerpricelevelmakesemploymentandproductionlessprofitable.這就導(dǎo)致企業(yè)減少物品與服務(wù)的供給數(shù)量。Thisinducesfirmstoreducethequantityofgoodsandservicessupplied.3737錯(cuò)覺(jué)理論

TheMisperceptionsTheory總體價(jià)格水平的下降，暫時(shí)地誤導(dǎo)供給者，使他們認(rèn)為是他們產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格下降了。Afallintheoverallpriceleveltemporarilymisleadsuppliers;theybelieveit’sthepricesoftheirproductsthatfell.也就是說(shuō)，他們錯(cuò)誤地認(rèn)為相對(duì)價(jià)格下降了。Thatis,theymistakenlybelievethattheirrelativepriceshavefallen.這種錯(cuò)覺(jué)使得供給者減少物品與服務(wù)的供給數(shù)量。Thesemisperceptionsinducesupplierstodecreasethequantityofgoodsandservicessupplied.3838粘性價(jià)格理論

TheSticky-PriceTheory某些物品與服務(wù)的價(jià)格為適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況變化所進(jìn)行的調(diào)整是遲緩的。Pricesofsomegoodsandservicesadjustsluggishlyinresponsetochangingeconomicconditions:價(jià)格水平的未預(yù)料到的下降，留下某些企業(yè)的價(jià)格高于合意的水平。Anunexpectedfallinthepricelevelleavessomefirmswithhigher-than-desiredprices.這會(huì)壓低銷售，引起企業(yè)減少物品與服務(wù)的生產(chǎn)數(shù)量。Thisdepressessales,whichinducesfirmstoreducethequantityofgoodsandservicestheyproduce.3939總供給曲線為什么向上傾斜

WhytheAggregate

SupplyCurveSlopesUpward所有三個(gè)理論都可以用下述一個(gè)理論概括：Allthethreetheoriescanbesummarizedintoonetheorybelow:當(dāng)實(shí)際價(jià)格水平背離人們預(yù)期的價(jià)格水平時(shí)，產(chǎn)量就背離其自然率。Outputdeviatesfromitsnaturalratewhenthepriceleveldeviatesfromthepricelevelthatpeopleexpect.當(dāng)實(shí)際價(jià)格水平高于人們預(yù)期的水平（越多）時(shí)，產(chǎn)量就高于其自然率（越多）。Whenthepricerises(more)abovethelevelthatpeopleexpected,outputrises(more)aboveitsnaturalrate.4040總供給曲線為什么向上傾斜

WhytheAggregate

SupplyCurveSlopesUpward用數(shù)學(xué)公式將產(chǎn)品供給量、實(shí)際和預(yù)期價(jià)格水平的關(guān)系表述如下:Wecanexpresstheaggregatesupplycurvemathematicallyasfollows：產(chǎn)品供給量＝自然產(chǎn)量率＋a×(實(shí)際價(jià)格水平－預(yù)期價(jià)格水平)Y=Yn+a(P-Pe)a>0反映產(chǎn)出對(duì)價(jià)格的未預(yù)期改變的反應(yīng)程度。Whereaisanumberthatdetermineshowmuchoutputrespondstounexpectedchangesinthepricelevel.4141總供給曲線為什么向上傾斜

WhytheAggregate

SupplyCurveSlopesUpward預(yù)期價(jià)格水平（Pe）衡量人們對(duì)價(jià)格水平的預(yù)期值。Expectedpricelevel(Pe)measureshowmuchpeopleexpecttheoverallpricelevelwillbe.自然產(chǎn)量率是當(dāng)實(shí)際價(jià)格水平等于預(yù)期價(jià)格水平時(shí)的產(chǎn)量。Naturalrateofoutputistheoutputproducedwhenthepricelevelequalstotheexpectedpricelevel.4242總供給曲線為什么向上傾斜

WhytheAggregateSupplyCurveSlopesUpward預(yù)期價(jià)格（Pe）不變……當(dāng)實(shí)際價(jià)格（P）上升……結(jié)果是產(chǎn)出（Y）增加粘性工資理論供給者難以調(diào)整名義工資…………供給者的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上升供給者由于實(shí)際工資下降而增加產(chǎn)出錯(cuò)覺(jué)理論供給者認(rèn)為其他產(chǎn)品價(jià)格不變…………供給者自己的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上升供給者誤認(rèn)為自己產(chǎn)品的相對(duì)價(jià)格上升，從而增加產(chǎn)出粘性價(jià)格理論供給者自己產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格難以調(diào)整…………其他供給者的價(jià)格上升供給者自己產(chǎn)品的相對(duì)價(jià)格下降，需求上升，從而增加產(chǎn)出。4343總供給曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)

WhytheAggregateSupplyCurveMightShift來(lái)自預(yù)期價(jià)格水平的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromtheExpectedPriceLevel來(lái)自自然產(chǎn)量率的變動(dòng)Shiftsarisingfromthenaturallevelofoutput4444預(yù)期價(jià)格水平的上升減少了物品與服務(wù)的供給數(shù)量，將總供給曲線向左移動(dòng)。Anincreaseintheexpectedpricelevelreducesthequantityofgoodsandservicessuppliedandshiftstheaggregatesupplycurvetotheleft.預(yù)期價(jià)格水平的下降增加了物品與服務(wù)的供給數(shù)量，將總供給曲線向右移動(dòng)。Adecreaseintheexpectedpricelevelraisesthequantityofgoodsandservicessuppliedandshiftstheaggregatesupplycurvetotheright.總供給曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)：預(yù)期價(jià)格水平的影響

WhytheAggregateSupplyCurveMightShift:InfluenceofExpectedPriceLevel4545總供給曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)：預(yù)期價(jià)格水平的影響

WhytheAggregateSupplyCurveMightShift:InfluenceofExpectedPriceLevelQuantityofOutputPriceLevel0aggregatesupply總供給Y=YnP=PeP’=Pe’預(yù)期價(jià)格水平上升……Pe4646總供給曲線：短期與長(zhǎng)期

TheAggregateSupplyCurve:Short-runvs.Long-run預(yù)期對(duì)總供給曲線位置的影響在解釋經(jīng)濟(jì)如何從短期轉(zhuǎn)向長(zhǎng)期時(shí)起了關(guān)鍵作用。Theinfluenceofexpectationsonthepositionoftheaggregate-supplycurveplaysakeyroleinexplaininghowtheeconomymakesthetransitionfromtheshortruntothelongrun.4747總供給曲線：短期與長(zhǎng)期

TheAggregateSupplyCurve:Short-runvs.Long-run短期中，預(yù)期價(jià)格水平不變，實(shí)際價(jià)格水平的上升增加了產(chǎn)品供給量，得到一條向上傾斜的總供給曲線。Intheshortrun,expectedpricelevelisfixed,anincreaseinactualpricelevelwillincreasethequantityofoutputsupplied,leadingtoanupwardaggregatesupplycurve.長(zhǎng)期中，預(yù)期價(jià)格水平與實(shí)際價(jià)格水平相等，得到一條垂直于自然產(chǎn)量率處的總供給曲線。Inthelongrun,expectedpricelevelisequaltoactualpricelevel,leadingtoanverticalaggregatesupplycurveatthenaturalrateofoutput.4848總供給曲線：短期與長(zhǎng)期

TheAggregateSupplyCurve:Short-runvs.Long-run短期總供給曲線向上傾斜。Intheshortrun,theaggregate-supplycurveisupwardsloping.長(zhǎng)期總供給曲線是垂直的。Inthelongrun,theaggregate-supplycurveisvertical.4949長(zhǎng)期總供給曲線

TheLong-RunAggregateSupplyCurve垂直的長(zhǎng)期總供給曲線是古典理論的圖形表示。Theverticallong-runaggregate-supplycurveisagraphicalrepresentationoftheclassicaltheory.在長(zhǎng)期中，經(jīng)濟(jì)的物品與服務(wù)的生產(chǎn)依賴于它的勞動(dòng)、資本與自然資源的供給，以及將這些生產(chǎn)要素轉(zhuǎn)化為產(chǎn)品與服務(wù)的可行技術(shù)。Inthelong-run,aneconomy’sproductionofgoodsandservicesdependsonitssuppliesoflabor,capital,andnaturalresourcesandontheavailabletechnologyusedtoturnthesefactorsofproductionintogoodsandservices.價(jià)格水平在長(zhǎng)期中不影響這些變量。Thepriceleveldoesnotaffectthesevariablesinthelongrun.5050長(zhǎng)期總供給曲線

TheLong-RunAggregate-SupplyCurve...QuantityofOutputNaturalrateofoutput自然產(chǎn)量率PriceLevel0Long-runaggregatesupply長(zhǎng)期總供給P1P22.…不影響長(zhǎng)期中物品與服務(wù)的供給數(shù)量doesnotaffectthequantityofgoodsandservicessuppliedinthelongrun.1.價(jià)格水平的改變Achangeinthepricelevel…5151長(zhǎng)期總供給曲線

TheLong-RunAggregateSupplyCurve長(zhǎng)期總供給曲線垂直于自然產(chǎn)量率處。Thelong-runaggregatesupplycurveisverticalatthenaturalrateofoutput.這一生產(chǎn)水平也被稱為潛在產(chǎn)出或充分就業(yè)產(chǎn)出。Thislevelofproductionisalsoreferredtoas

potentialoutputor

full-employmentoutput.5252總供給曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)：自然產(chǎn)量率的變動(dòng)

WhytheAggregateSupplyCurveMightShift:TheChangeofNaturalRateofOutput任何改變自然產(chǎn)量率的經(jīng)濟(jì)變化都會(huì)同樣地移動(dòng)短期和長(zhǎng)期的總供給曲線。Anychangeintheeconomythataltersthenaturalrateofoutputshiftstheaggregate-supplycurve,bothlong-runandshort-run.這樣的移動(dòng)可以按照古典模型中影響產(chǎn)出的若干因素來(lái)分類。Theshiftsmaybecategorizedaccordingtothevariousfactorsintheclassicalmodelthataffectoutput.5353總供給曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)：自然產(chǎn)量率的變動(dòng)

WhytheAggregateSupplyCurveMightShift:TheChangeofNaturalRateofOutput來(lái)自勞動(dòng)的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromLabor來(lái)自資本的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromCapital來(lái)自自然資源的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromNaturalResources來(lái)自技術(shù)知識(shí)的移動(dòng)ShiftsarisingfromTechnologicalKnowledge5454總供給曲線為什么會(huì)移動(dòng)：自然產(chǎn)量率的變動(dòng)

WhytheAggregateSupplyCurveMightShift:TheChangeofNaturalRateofOutputQuantityofOutputNaturalrateofoutput自然產(chǎn)量率PriceLevel0Long-runaggregatesupply長(zhǎng)期總供給Short-runaggregatesupply短期總供給自然產(chǎn)量率增加ExpectedpriceLevel預(yù)期價(jià)格水平Y(jié)n55551.在長(zhǎng)期中，技術(shù)進(jìn)步移動(dòng)長(zhǎng)期總供給Inthelong-run,technologicalprogressshiftslong-runaggregatesupply...LRAS2000LRAS1990QuantityofOutputPriceLevel0P1980Y1980AD1980P2000P1990LRAS19802.…貨幣供給的增長(zhǎng)移動(dòng)總需求andgrowthinthemoneysupplyshiftsaggregate-demand...AD2000AD19904.…和持續(xù)的通貨膨脹andongoinginflation.Y1990Y20003.…導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)leadingtogrowthinoutput...運(yùn)用總供求模型描述長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)與通貨膨脹……UsingAggregateDemandandAggregateSupplytoDepictLong-RunGrowthandInflation...5656長(zhǎng)期均衡

TheLong-RunEquilibriumQuantityofOutput產(chǎn)量PriceLevel價(jià)格水平0Short-runaggregatesupply短期總供給總需求AggregatedemandALong-runaggregatesupply長(zhǎng)期總供給Equilibrium

price=Expectedprice均衡價(jià)格=預(yù)期價(jià)格Naturalrateofoutput自然產(chǎn)量率5757長(zhǎng)期均衡

TheLong-RunEquilibrium當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)達(dá)到長(zhǎng)期均衡時(shí)，預(yù)期價(jià)格水平調(diào)整到與實(shí)際價(jià)格水平相等。Whentheeconomyreachesthislong-runequilibrium,theexpectedpricelevelwillhaveadjustedtoequaltheactualpricelevel.產(chǎn)出等于自然產(chǎn)量率。Theoutputequalstoitsnaturalrate.經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期均衡處于總需求曲線、短期和長(zhǎng)期總供給曲線的交點(diǎn)處。Thelong-runequilibriumoftheeconomyisfoundwheretheaggregate-demandcurvecrossestheshort-runandlong-runaggregate-supplycurve.5858經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的兩大原因

TwoCausesofEconomicFluctuations分析經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的四個(gè)步驟：Fourstepsintheprocessofanalyzingeconomicfluctuations:決定事件是影響總供給還是總需求Determinewhethertheeventaffectsaggregatesupplyoraggregatedemand.決定曲線移動(dòng)的方向Decidewhichdirectionthecurveshifts.使用圖形比較短期內(nèi)的新舊均衡Usethediagramtocomparetheinitialandthenewequilibriumintheshortrun找出經(jīng)濟(jì)從短期均衡到長(zhǎng)期均衡的轉(zhuǎn)移路徑Keeptrackofthetransitionbetweentheshortandlongrunequilibrium.5959經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的兩大原因

TwoCausesofEconomicFluctuations總需求移動(dòng)Shiftsinaggregatedemand總供給移動(dòng)Shiftsinaggregatesupply601.總需求減少Adecreaseinaggregatedemand…AD2總需求的收縮……

AContractioninAggregateDemand...QuantityofOutputPriceLevel0Short-runaggregatesupply,AS1

Long-runaggregatesupplyAggregatedemand,AD1AP1Y1BP2Y22.…導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)出在短期內(nèi)下降causesoutputtofallintheshortrun…AS2CP33.…但是隨著時(shí)間推移，短期總供給曲線移動(dòng)butovertime,theshort-runaggregate-supplycurveshifts…4.…產(chǎn)出回到其自然率上andoutputreturnstoitsnaturalrate.6161總需求移動(dòng)

ShiftsinAggregateDemand在短期內(nèi)，總需求的移動(dòng)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)中物品與服務(wù)的產(chǎn)出發(fā)生波動(dòng)。Intheshortrun,shiftsinaggregatedemandcausefluctuationsintheeconomy’soutputofgoodsandservices.在長(zhǎng)期中，總需求的移動(dòng)影響整體的價(jià)格水平但不影響產(chǎn)出。Inthelongrun,shiftsinaggregatedemandaffecttheoverallpricelevelbutdonotaffectoutput.通過(guò)影響總需求，政策制定者有可能能夠緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的嚴(yán)重影響。Policymakerswhoinfluenceaggregatedemandcanpotentiallymitigatetheseverityofeconomicfluctuations.6262總供給的不利移動(dòng)

AnAdverseShiftinAggregateSupply除預(yù)期外的決定總供給的因素的不利變動(dòng)將短期和長(zhǎng)期曲線都向左移動(dòng)。Anadversechangeinoneofthedeterminantsofaggregatesupplyexceptforexpectationshiftsboththeshort-runandlong-runcurvestotheleft:自然產(chǎn)量率下降。Thenaturalrateofoutputfall.6363Long-runaggregatesupplyShort-runaggregatesupply,AS1QuantityofOutputPriceLevel0AggregatedemandAY1P1總供給的不利移動(dòng)……

An

AdverseShiftinAggregateSupply...3.…和價(jià)格水平上升andthepriceleveltorise.

P22.…導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)出下降causesoutputtofall…BY2AS34.…長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)價(jià)格水平繼續(xù)上升inthelongrun,pricelevelrisesmore.

P3C1.總供給曲線的不利移動(dòng)。Anadverseshiftintheaggregate-supplycurve…AS2Y35.…產(chǎn)出進(jìn)一步下降andoutputfallsmore.6464滯脹

Stagflation總供給的不利移動(dòng)導(dǎo)致滯脹——衰退和通貨膨脹并存。Adverseshiftsinaggregatesupplycausestagflation—acombinationofrecessionandinflation.產(chǎn)出下降，失業(yè)增加，價(jià)格上升。Outputfalls,unemploymentrises,andpricesrise.政策制定者能夠影響總需求，但不能同時(shí)抵消這兩種不利的影響。Policymakerswhocaninfluenceaggregatedemandcannotoffsetbothoftheseadverseeffectssimultaneously.6565對(duì)于衰退的政策反應(yīng)

PolicyResponsestoRecession政策制定者對(duì)衰退的反應(yīng)可以是以下方式之一Policymakersmayrespondtoarecessioninoneofthefollowingways:什么也不做，等待價(jià)格和工資的調(diào)整。Donothingandwaitforpricesandwagestoadjust.采取行動(dòng)，通過(guò)貨幣與財(cái)政政策來(lái)增加總需求。Takeactiontoincreaseaggregatedemandbyusingmonetaryandfiscalpolicy.6666對(duì)于衰退的政策反應(yīng)

PolicyResponsestoRecession對(duì)即使是短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退做出適當(dāng)?shù)恼叻磻?yīng)，來(lái)源于凱恩斯的主張。Thelongrunisamisleadingguidetocurrentaffairs.Inthelongrunwearealldead.Economistssetthemselvestooeasy,toouselessa