最低工資和貧困 動態(tài)差異估計的新證據(jù)

NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIES

MINIMUMWAGESANDPOVERTY:

NEWEVIDENCEFROMDYNAMICDIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCESESTIMATES

RichardV.Burkhauser

DrewMcNichols

JosephJ.Sabia

WorkingPaper31182

/papers/w31182

NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH

1050MassachusettsAvenue

Cambridge,MA02138

April2023

RichardBurkhauserisaSeniorResearchFellowintheCivitasInstituteattheUniversityofTexas—Austinandacknowledgesitsresearchsupportforthisproject.Dr.SabiaacknowledgesresearchsupportfromtheCenterforHealthEconomics&PolicyStudies(CHEPS),whichhasreceivedgrantsfromtheTroeshFamilyFoundationandtheCharlesKochFoundation.WethankKyutaroMatsuzawaforoutstandingresearchassistanceaswellasSamaAzizforhelpfuleditorialassistance.Wealsothankseminarparticipantsatthe2021SouthernEconomicAssociationmeetings,the2022AssociationofPublicPolicyAnalysisandManagement,the2022EuropeanSocietyofPopulationEconomics,andChapmanUniversityforhelpfulcommentsandsuggestionsonapreviousdraftofthispaper.ThisresearchwasconductedwhileDr.McNicholswasaPostdoctoralFellowattheCenterforHealthEconomicsandPolicyStudies(CHEPS)priortohisemploymentatAmazon.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.

Atleastoneco-authorhasdisclosedadditionalrelationshipsofpotentialrelevanceforthisresearch.Furtherinformationisavailableonlineat/papers/w31182

NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.

?2023byRichardV.Burkhauser,DrewMcNichols,andJosephJ.Sabia.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including?notice,isgiventothesource.

MinimumWagesandPoverty:NewEvidencefromDynamicDifference-in-DifferencesEstimatesRichardV.Burkhauser,DrewMcNichols,andJosephJ.Sabia

NBERWorkingPaperNo.31182

April2023

JELNo.J23,J38

ABSTRACT

Advocatesofminimumwageincreaseshavelongtoutedtheirpotentialtoreducepoverty.Thisstudyassessesthisclaim.UsingdataspanningnearlyfourdecadesfromtheMarchCurrentPopulationSurvey,andadynamicdifference-in-differencesapproach,wefindthata10percentincreaseintheminimumwageisassociatedwitha(statisticallyinsignificant)0.17percentincreaseintheprobabilityoflonger-runpovertyamongallpersons.With95%confidence,wecanruleoutlong-runpovertyelasticitieswithrespecttotheminimumwageoflessthan-0.129,whichincludescentralpovertyelasticitiesreportedbyDube(2019).Priorevidencesuggestinglargepoverty-reducingeffectsoftheminimumwageare(i)highlysensitivetoresearcher’schoiceofmacroeconomiccontrols,and(ii)drivenbyspecificationsthatlimitcounterfactualstogeographicallyproximatestates(“closecontrols”),whichpoorlymatchtreatmentstates’pre-treatmentpovertytrends.Moreover,anexaminationofthepost-GreatRecessionera—whichsawfrequent,largeincreasesinstateminimumwages—failedtouncoverpoverty-reducingeffectsoftheminimumwageacrossawidesetofspecifications.Finally,wefindthatlessthan10percentofworkerswhowouldbeaffectedbyanewlyproposed$15federalminimumwageliveinpoorfamilies.

RichardV.BurkhauserJosephJ.Sabia

CornellUniversitySanDiegoStateUniversity

DepartmentofPolicyAnalysis&ManagementDepartmentofEconomics

Ithaca,NY14853-4401CenterforHealthEconomics

andAEIandIZA&PolicyStudies

andalsoNBER5500CampanileDrive

rvb1@SanDiego,CA92182

andIZA&ESSPRI

DrewMcNicholsjsabia@

16656MarineViewDrSW

Burien,WA98166

UnitedStates

drewmcnichols@

1

1.Introduction

Duringthe85yearssincetheU.S.SupremeCourtruledthatstateminimumwagelawswereconstitutional(WestCoastHotelCo.v.Parrish,300U.S.379,1937),prominentadvocatesofminimumwageincreases—fromPresidentsFranklinD.RooseveltthroughJosephR.Biden—haveconsistentlytoutedtheirpotentialtoreducepoverty.

1

Indeed,povertyreductionhasbeenacentralargumentinsupportoftheLivingWageNowActandtheRaisetheWageAct,eachofwhichwouldmorethandoubletheFederalminimumwagefrom$7.25to$15perhour(HouseBill325;SenateBillS.53).

2

Thereareseveralchannelsthroughwhichminimumwageincreasescouldreducepoverty.Ifminimumwageincreasesraisehourlywagespaidtopoorworkers—withoutcausingsubstantialadverselabordemandeffects(CardandKrueger1995;Cengizetal.2019))—suchhikescouldraisefamilyincomesandliftpoorworkersoutofpoverty(BernsteinandSherholz2014;Dube2019).

3

Inaddition,iflow-skilledlabormarketsaremonopsonisticorcharacterizedbysearch-relatedfrictions(CardandKrueger1995;Manning2003),minimumwageincreasescould,intheory,increaseemploymentandraiseincomesamongtheworkingpoor.Moreover,ifminimumwagehikesboostspendingamonglow-skilledworkers,whotypicallyhaveahighmarginalpropensitytoconsume,minimumwagehikescouldstimulateaggregatedemandandgeneratelonger-runeconomicgrowththatliftssomepoorworkersoutofpoverty(CongressionalBudgetOffice2021).

1InWestCoastHotelCo.v.Parrish(300U.S.379(1937)),theU.S.SupremeCourtupheldthefirststateminimumwagelaw,statingthatstatescouldregulatewagesto“reducetheevilsofthe‘sweatingsystem’,theexploitingofworkersatwagessolowastobeinsufficienttomeetthebarecostofliving.“WithrespecttoU.S.PresidentsandleadingSenators,suchrhetoricbeganwithFranklinRoosevelt’sadvocacyfortheFairLaborStandardsActandcontinuingthroughPresidentBiden’ssupportfortheRaisetheWageAct.Totakeahandfulofexamples,PresidentJohnF.Kennedystated,“Thefiscalburdenofaninadequateminimumwagelawliesuponthecommunity…WecannolongertolerategrowingpatchesofpovertyandinjusticeinAmerica”(1961);PresidentLyndonB.Johnsonstated,“Thenewminimum

wage…willbringworkersandtheirfamiliesalittlebitabovethepovertyline,$3,000ayear.Itwillhelpthemcarryon.Itwillhelpthemtonotworryaboutthreemealsaday.Itwillenablethemtohelpthemselvesdevelopskillssothattheycansomedayearnmore”(1966),SenatorEdwardKennedystated,“Theminimumwagewas,asitshouldbe,alivingwage,forworkingmenandwomen...whoareattemptingtoprovidefortheirfamilies,feedandclothetheirchildren,heattheirhomes,[and]paytheirmortgages”(1989);PresidentBillClintonstated,“I’vestudiedtheargumentsandtheevidenceforandagainstaminimumwageincrease…Butthemostimportantthingis,youcan’tmakealivingon$4.25anhour."(1996);PresidentBarackObamastated,“Intherichestnationonearth,nobodywhoworksfull-timeshouldhavetoliveinpoverty”(2014);andfinally,PresidentJosephR.Biden,in2020,stated,“Nooneshouldwork40hoursaweekandlivebelowthepovertywage.Andifyou’remakinglessthan$15anhour,you’relivingbelowthepovertywage.”

2TheLivingWageNowAct,reintroducedbyCongressmanSteveCohen(D-TN)inJanuary2023,wouldraisetheFederalminimumwageimmediately,whiletheRaisetheWageActof2021wouldphaseinaFederalminimumwagehikeoverfiveyearsaswellaseliminatethe“tipcredit”andseveralothercoverageotherexemptions.

3Somehavefurtherarguedthatbyreducingpoverty,anunintendedpublicbudget-relatedbenefitofminimumwageincreasesmaybeareductioninlow-skilledworkers’dependenceonmeans-testedpublicassistanceprogramssuchastheSupplementalNutritionAssistanceProgram(WestandReich2015).

2

Ontheotherhand,iflow-skilledlabormarketsarecompetitive,minimumwageincreasescouldreduceemploymentandworkhoursamonglow-skilledworkers(Stigler,1946,ClemensandWither2019;ClemensandStrain2021;NeumarkandShirley2021).Iftheseemploymentlossesarefeltbysomepoorandnear-poorworkers,familyincomescouldfall,therebyplungingsomelow-skilledworkersinto(deeper)poverty(NeumarkandWascher2002;BurkhauserandSabia2007;SabiaandBurkhauser2010).Additionally,ifminimumwagehikesimpactoutputprices,particularlyforproductsthatpoorindividualsaremorelikelytopurchase,thentheeffectsofminimumwagehikesmaybequiteregressive(MaCurdy2015).

Therefore,thenetimpactofminimumwageincreasesonpovertylargelydependson(1)wage,employment,andhourselasticitieswithrespecttotheminimumwage,(2)thedistributionofearningsgainsandlossesforpoorandnearpoorworkers,and(3)spillovereffectsoftheminimumwageonoutputpricesandspending-inducedlonger-runeconomicgrowth.

4

DespitesignificantdisagreementamonglaboreconomistsovertheemploymenteffectsofU.S.minimumwageincreases(NeumarkandShirley2021;Cengizetal.2019;ClemensandWither2019;Neumark,Salas,andWascher2014;Dubeetal.2010),therehadlargelybeenaconsensusamonglaboreconomiststhatminimumwageincreasesdidlittletoreducepoverty(SabiaandBurkhauser2010;BurkhauserandSabia2007;NeumarkandWascher2002;CardandKrueger1995).Thisconsensuswasowedtolowratesofminimumwagelaborsuppliedbyindividualslivinginpoorfamilies(CardandKrueger1995),andthediminishedassociationbetweenanindividualearningalowwageandlivinginapoorfamily(Stigler1946;BurkhauserandSabia2007).

5

However,theconsensusamonglaboreconomiststhattheminimumwageservesasanineffectiveanti-povertytoolhasbeenbroken.AhighlyinfluentialstudybyDube(2019)findsthatminimumwageincreasesenactedinthe1980s,1990s,and2000swereassociatedwithstatisticallysignificantandeconomicallysubstantialdeclinesinpoverty.UsingdatafromtheMarch1984-2013CurrentPopulationSurveys(correspondingtocalendaryears1983-2012)andavarietyofdifference-in-differencesapproaches,Dube(2019)estimatescontemporaneouspovertyelasticitieswithrespecttotheminimumwageof-0.2to-0.5fornon-elderlyindividuals(thoseages0-to-64)aswellaslonger-run(threeyearsormore)elasticitiesaslargeas-0.9forracial/ethnicminorities.Thelargest

4Inaddition,povertycouldbeindirectlyimpactedbytheeffectsofminimumwagesonthepricesofgoodsinthemarketbasketthatdeterminesthepovertythresholdoroneconomicgrowth(CBO2021).

5Moreover,NeumarkandWascher(2002)furtherarguedthatwhileincreasesinwagesofsomepoorworkerswouldliftthem(andtheirfamilymembers)outofpoverty,adverseemploymentandhourseffectsamongothernear-poorworkerswouldreducetheirincome,plungingthem(andtheirfamilymembers)intopoverty.

3

povertyelasticitiesarefoundinregressionmodelsthatforcegeographicallyproximatecounterfactuals(viatheinclusionofcontrolsforcensusdivision-specificyeareffects),alsoincludecontrolsforstate-specificlineartimetrends,andfurtherincludeafullsetofstate-by-yeardummyinteractionsfortheyears2007,2008,and2009.

Dube’shighlyinfluentialstudyhasbeencitedinaCongressionalBudgetOfficereport(CBO2019)assessingtheimpactoftheminimumwageonthedistributionoffamilyincomes,animportantcomponentofalaterCBOreport(CBO2021)projecting900,000individualswouldbeliftedoutofpovertyfromanincreaseintheFederalminimumwagefrom$7.25perhourto$15perhour.Dube(2019)hasalsobeenfrequentlycitedinCongressionaltestimonyinsupportofraisingtheFederalminimumwage(Reich2019;Shierholz2021).

Thisstudyrevisitstherelationshipbetweenminimumwageincreasesandpoverty.Wehighlightfourkeyresults.First,wereplicateandreassessthefindingsofDube(2019),basedonpovertydatafromtheMarch1984toMarch2013CPS(correspondingtocalendaryears1983-2012).Afterpreciselyreplicatinghisestimates,weshowthathisresultsaredrivenbytwospecificationchoices:(1)theinclusionofmacroeconomiccontrols(thestateunemploymentrateandpercapitastateGrossDomesticProduct)thatmayalsocaptureamechanismthroughwhichtheminimumwageaffectspoverty:itsemploymentandhourseffects,and(2)restrictingtreatmentstates’counterfactualstostateswithinthesamecensusdivision(“closecontrols”),evenwhengeographicallyproximatestatesarerejectedbyadata-drivensyntheticcontrolapproachtogeneratecounterfactuals.Whenwe(1)usethestatehousepriceindexandtheunemploymentandaveragewagerateamongmorehighlyeducatedindividualstocontrolforstatemacroeconomicconditionsthatarelesslikelytocapturepathwaysthroughwhichminimumwagesaffectpovertyinadifference-in-differencesframework,or(2)allowstatesoutsideatreatmentstate’scensusdivisiontoserveaspotentialdonorsinasyntheticcontrolframework,wefindnoevidenceofpoverty-reducingeffectsoftheminimumwageoverthe1983-2012period.Moreover,neitherevent-studyanalysesbasedonthefulldistributionofminimumwageincreasesnorbasedonprominentminimumwageincreases($1.00,$0.75,and$0.50perhourperyear)usingCallawayandSant’Anna(2021)estimatesshowevidencethatraisingtheminimumwagewasaneffectivestrategytoreducepovertyduringthe1983-2012period.The95percentconfidenceintervalsaroundourpreferredestimatesruleoutpovertyelasticitieswithrespecttotheminimumwageoflessthan-0.138,whichincludecentralestimatesreportedbyDube(2019).

Second,whenweexplorethemostrecentdecadeofCPSdata,whichcapturestheyearsfollowingtheGreatRecession(2010-2019),thecontemporaneousandlonger-runpovertyfindings

4

reportedbyDube(2019)arelargelyabsent,includinginmodelsthatuseDube’spreferredmacroeconomiccontrolsorcontrolsforspatialheterogeneity.Specifically,wefindnoevidencethatpost-GreatRecessionminimumwageincreaseshadastatisticallysignificantoreconomicallyimportanteffectonpoverty.Thisresultisrobustacrossalternativepovertymeasures(i.e.,OfficialPovertyMeasurevs.SupplementalPovertyMeasure),overthefamilyorhouseholdincome-to-needsdistribution,acrossspecificationsthatinclude(orexclude)state-specificlineartimetrendsandcensusdivision-specificyeareffects,acrossdemographicgroups(allindividuals,non-elderlyindividuals,working-ageindividuals,less-educatedorless-experiencedpersons,singlemothers,children,andBlackandHispanicindividuals)aswellasusingnewly-developeddynamicdifference-in-differencesapproaches(SchmidheinyandSiegloch2019;Callaway-Sant’Anna2021),includingevent-studyanalysesofprominentminimumwageincreases.Again,the95percentconfidenceintervalsaroundourestimatedminimumwageeffectsruleoutthecentralpovertyelasticitiesreportedbyDube(2019).

,

Thirdwhenwecombinethetwodatawindowsdiscussedaboveandamassour“fullpanel”

from1983-2019,wefindlittlesupportforthehypothesisthatminimumwageincreasesreducepovertyoverthis37-yearperiod.Estimatedelasticitiesbelow-0.131fornon-elderlyindividuals(andbelow-0.129forallpersons)lieoutsideofour95%confidenceinterval,whichwouldruleoutthecentrallong-runestimatereportedbyDube(2019).Ourpreferredestimateshowsthata10percentincreaseintheminimumwageisassociatedwitha(statisticallyinsignificant)0.17percentincreaseintheprobabilityofpovertyamongallpersons.

Finally,wefindthatraisingtheFederalminimumwageto$15perhour,asproposedintheLivingWageNowActandRaisetheWageAct,isapoorlytargetedmeansofdeliveringincometotheworkingpoor.Wefindthatlessthan10percentofthosewhosehourlywageratewouldbedirectlyimpactedbya$15minimumwageliveinpoorfamilies.Approximatelytwo-thirdsliveinfamilieswithincomesovertwotimesthepovertylineandnearlyhalfliveinfamilieswithincomesoverthreetimesthepovertyline.Insummary,ourfindingsprovidelittlecompellingevidencethatraisingtheminimumwagewillbeaneffectiveortargetefficientpolicytoolforalleviatingpoverty.

2.Background

Amongthemostdirectchannelsthroughwhichtheminimumwagecanaffecttheprobabilitythatanindividuallivesinpovertyincludeitseffectsonwages,employment,andworkhours.Whilethereislittledisagreementthatminimumwageincreasescauseanincreaseinwages

5

amongless-educatedandless-experiencedworkers(NeumarkandWascher2008),thereissubstantialdisagreementamonglaboreconomistsastothemagnitudeoflow-skilledemploymentandhourseffectsofU.S.minimumwageincreases(NeumarkandShirley2021;ClemensandStrain2021;ClemensandWither2019;Cengizetal.2019;Neumarketal.2014;Allegrettoetal.2011;Dubeetal.2010).

6

Despitesuchdisagreements,aconsensushademergedthatminimumwageincreaseswereineffectiveatreducingpoverty(CardandKrueger1995;NeumarkandWascher2002;SabiaandBurkhauser2010;MaCurdy2015;ClemensandWither2019).

7

Thisconsensushasbeenattributedtolowratesofemploymentamongthoselivinginpoorandnear-poorfamilies(CardandKrueger1995)aswellasthefactthatanon-trivialshareofthosewhoareemployedinsuchfamiliesalreadyhavehourlywageratesabovetheproposedminimumwageincreases.(BurkhauserandFinegan1989;Burkhauseretal.1996).

8

,

9

6Differencesinfindingsacrossstudiescanbeattributedtoanumberofinterrelatedfactors,including(1)heterogeneousimpactsofminimumwageincreasesacrosstime,jurisdictions,macroeconomicconditions,thesizeofminimumwageincreases,andaggregationoflow-wageworkers,(Neumarketal.2021;ClemensandStrain2021),(2)researchers’choiceofempiricalstrategiestodisentangleemploymenteffectsofminimumwageincreasesfromtheeffectsofothercorrelatedfactors,includingcontemporaneouslocalmacroeconomicshocksandsocialwelfarepolicies,(3)thecredibilityoflimitingcounterfactualstojurisdictionsthataregeographicallyproximate(“closecontrols”)(Dubeetal.2010;Allegrettoetal.2011;Neumarketal.2014),and(4)howtobestaddressthepotentialforpolicyendogeneitywithoutobscuringdynamicemploymenteffectsoftheminimumwage(Allegrettoetal.2011;Neumarketal.2014;MeerandWest2016).Relatedly,differencesinthesourceofidentifyingvariationacrossstateandfederalminimumwageschangesmayalsobeimportant(Burkhauseretal.2000;ClemensandWither2019).SeealsoSabiaetal.(2012;2016)foranexampleofacasestudyofastateminimumwagehikethatdemonstratesevidenceofpotentiallylargenegativeemploymentresponsestominimumwageincreases.

7SeealsoBurkhauserandSabia(2007)andSabiaandNielsen(2015).Sabiaetal.(2018)findevidenceofaredistributionofpovertyfollowinganincreaseintheminimumwagepaidtotippedemployees.AddisonandBlackburn(1999)isanotableexception.Whiletheyfindthatminimumwageincreaseshavelittleeffectonoverallpovertyrates,theyfindsomeevidenceofpovertyreductionamongteenagersandyoungadultdropouts.

8Inaddition,totheextentthatminimumwagehikesdoinducenegativeemploymenteffects,theneteffectsofminimumwageswillreflectincomeredistributionamongpoorandnear-poorworkers(NeumarkandWascher2002).Inaddition,thereisevidencethatminimumwageincreaseshaveregressivedistributionaleffects(MaCurdy2015)throughtheireffectsonoutputprices(Aaronson2001;AaronsonandMcDonald2008).MaCurdy(2015)concludesthat“…anincreaseinthenationalminimumwageproducesavalue-addedtaxeffectonconsumerpricesthatismoreregressivethanatypicalstatesalestaxandallocatesbenefitsashigherearningsnearlyevenlyacrosstheincomedistribution.Theseincome-transferoutcomessharplycontradictportrayinganincreaseintheminimumwageasanantipovertyinitiative.”(MaCurdy2015,p.497).

9Aseparate,butrelatedliteratureonminimumwagesandpovertyhasfocusedonthetargetefficiencyoftheminimumwage(Stigler1946;Burkhauseretal.1996;BurkhauserandSabia2007).Stigler(1946)arguedthattherelationshipbetweenearningalowhourlywageandlivinginpovertyis“fuzzy”becauseanindividual’spovertystatusdependsnotonlyonherwagerate,butalsoonthesizeoftheresourcesharingunittowhichshebelongs,theearningsofothermembersofthesharingunit,andthehoursoflow-wagelaborworkedbyworkersinthehousehold.Burkhauseretal.(1996)showthatwhiletheminimumwageusedtobewell-targetedtoworkersinpoorhouseholds(i.e.,in1939,85percentoflow-wageworkerslivedinpoorhouseholds),therelationshipbetweenalowhourlywagerateandlivinginpovertybecamemoreremoteasthedecadespassed.In1939,whenmostfamilieswerecharacterizedbyasingle“breadwinner,”approximately85percentoflow-wageworkerslivedinpoorhouseholds.Overthenextseveraldecades,assecond-andthirdearnersinhouseholdsrose,drivenbylargeincreasesinfemalelaborforceparticipation,theshareoflow-wageworkerslivinginpoorhouseholdsplummetedtounder20percent(BurkhauserandSabia2007).

6

However,ahighlyinfluentialstudybyDube(2019)offersadirectchallengetotheconsensusthatminimumwageincreasesfailtoreducepoverty.Usingpovertydatafromthe1983-2012CPSandadifference-in-differences(DD)approach,Dube(2019)estimateslongerterm(threeyearsormore)povertyelasticitieswithrespecttotheminimumwageof-0.22to-0.47fornon-elderlyindividuals.Estimatedelasticitiesreachaslargeas-0.53forindividualswithoutahighschooldegreeand-0.87forBlacksandHispanics.

10

Poverty-reducingeffectsoftheminimumwagearesomewhatlarger(inabsolutemagnitude)whenestimatingthepolicy’simpactontheprobabilitythatanindividuallivesin“deeppoverty,”definedaslivinginafamilywithincomelessthan50percentofthefederalpovertythreshold.Intriguingly,Dubepovertyelasticitiesareapproximatelytwiceaslargeinregressionmodelsthatforcegeographicallyproximatecounterfactuals(viatheinclusionofcontrolsforcensusdivision-specificyeareffects),alsoincludecontrolsforstate-specificlineartimetrends,andfurtherincludeafullsetofstate-by-yeardummyinteractionsfortheyears2007,2008,and2009.

11

WhileDube(2019)prefersspecificationstobesaturatedwiththeabovespatialheterogeneitycontrols,heavoidstakingastandonthesecontrolsbyalsoproducingasignificantpovertyelasticitywithrespecttotheminimumwageina“canonical”two-wayfixedeffects(TWFE)model.InTable7,column1(p.299),Dube(2019)employsaTWFEmodelandestimatesalonger-runpovertyelasticityof-0.22.Thisshatteringofapreviouslyheldconsensus—acrossavarietyofspecificationspreferredbyresearchersoneachsideoftheemploymentdebate—isastunningdevelopmentinthisliterature,oneworthyoffurtherreassessmentandreconciliationwithpriorstudies’nullfindings.Moreover,fromapolicyperspective,itiscriticaltoexplorewhethertherelationshipcapturedbyDube(2019)duringthe1980s,1990s,and2000spersistsduringtheeconomicexpansionofthe2010sandisrobusttonewdevelopmentsindynamicdifference-in-differencesliterature(Goodman-Bacon2021;Cunningham2021;SunandAbraham2021).

10TomeasurepovertyDube(2019)usesaslightlymodifiedversionoftheOfficialPovertyMeasure(OPM)thatdisaggregatesprimaryandsecondaryfamilies.Inasecondapproach,hedirectlyexaminesfamilyincome,butaugmentshisdefinitionoffamilyresourcestoinclude“thevalueofsomenoncashtransfers(SNAP,housingassistance,schoollunch)andrefundabletaxcredits(EITC,childtaxcredit,andadditionalchildtaxcredit)”butdoesnotsubtracttaxesorthevalueofnecessaryexpenditures(i.e.,work-relatedtransportationexpenses,childsupport,andtaxes)incalculatingtotalresourcesasintheSupplementalPovertyMeasure(SPM).

11Perhapsthisfindingisnotsurprisinggiventhatthefirsttwosetsofcontrolsforspatialheterogeneity(state-specificlineartimetrendsandcensusdivision-specificyearfixedeffects)havealsobeenshowntosubstantiallyreduceevidenceofadverseemploymenteffectsofminimumwages(Neumarketal.2014).Moreover,whileDube(2019)arguesforinteractingstatefixedeffectswiththethreecalendaryearsinwhichtheGreatRecessiontookplace,suchcontrolswillalsonetout(short-andmedium-run)adverseemploymenteffectsofthe2007-2009federalminimumwageincrease(ClemensandWither2019).

7

Inundertakingthese