醫(yī)療健康行業(yè)：中報業(yè)績預(yù)覽

請仔請仔2019年中報業(yè)績預(yù)覽重點覆蓋A股醫(yī)藥企業(yè)2019年中報業(yè)績預(yù)覽我們按2019年中報預(yù)期歸母凈利潤增速分類如下：凈利潤增速在及以上（%20-30%之間醫(yī)療（、華東醫(yī)藥、藥明康德、九州通、老百姓。凈利潤增速在10-20%之間：國藥股份、麗珠集團(tuán)、華蘭生物、迪安診斷、貝達(dá)藥業(yè)、天士力、康弘藥業(yè)。凈利潤增速在%之間：云南白藥、同仁堂、上海醫(yī)藥（、通化東寶、國藥一致、以嶺藥業(yè)。凈利潤下滑的有：東阿阿膠、科倫藥業(yè)（預(yù)計全年增長30。請仔備注2018年歸母凈利潤2018年上半年歸母凈2019年中報盈代碼請仔備注2018年歸母凈利潤2018年上半年歸母凈2019年中報盈代碼 （百萬人民幣）利潤（百萬人民幣） 利增長預(yù)測公司名稱恩華藥業(yè) 525 262 20~25%恒瑞醫(yī)恩華藥業(yè) 525 262 20~25%華潤三九 1,432 827 95~100%東阿阿膠 2,085 862 -50~-40%白云山600332.SH3,4412,61927~37%剔除2018年公允價值變動的一次性收益科倫藥業(yè)002422.SZ1,213774-10~0%預(yù)計全年增長~30%國藥股份600511.SH1,40463610~15%云南白藥000538.SZ3,3071,6333~8%昆藥集團(tuán)600422.SH33618125~30%同仁堂600085.SH1,1346395~10%麗珠集團(tuán)000513.SZ1,08263310~15%安圖生物603658.SH56324725~30%華蘭生物002007.SZ1,14045315~20%樂普醫(yī)療300003.SZ1,21981030~40%上海醫(yī)藥601607.SH3,8812,0337~12%迪安診斷300244.SZ38920410~20%智飛生物300122.SZ1,45168255~85%益豐藥房603939.SH41622540~45%片仔癀600436.SH1,14361820~25%貝達(dá)藥業(yè)300558.SZ1676710~20%通化東寶600867.SH8395370~10%魚躍醫(yī)療002223.SZ72747019~24%華東醫(yī)藥000963.SZ2,2671,29322~27%天士力600535.SH1,54592515~20%藥明康德603259.SH2,2611,27220~30%凱利泰300326.SZ46311135~45%國藥一致000028.SZ1,2116425~10%以嶺藥業(yè)002603.SZ5994480~5%愛爾眼科300015.SZ1,00950930~35%泰格醫(yī)藥300347.SZ47221950~70%九州通600998.SH1,34153725~30%老百姓603883.SH43522120~25%康弘藥業(yè)002773.SZ69531010~20%資料來源：萬得資訊，公司年報，請仔重點覆蓋港股醫(yī)藥企業(yè)2019年中報業(yè)績預(yù)覽請仔2019年中報預(yù)期歸母凈利潤增速分類如下：凈利潤增速在及以上（。凈利潤增速在20-30%之間：中國生物制藥、三生制藥、石藥集團(tuán)、藥明康德。凈利潤增速在10-20%之間：威高股份、康哲藥業(yè)、同仁堂國藥、中國中藥、麗珠醫(yī)藥、石四藥集團(tuán)、華潤醫(yī)藥、中國同輻。凈利潤增速在%之間：上海醫(yī)藥（、同仁堂科技（2-3。凈利潤下滑的有：聯(lián)邦制藥。中國同輻1763.HKCNY32311715~20%中國同輻1763.HKCNY32311715~20%藥明康德2359.HKCNY2,2611,27220~30%記賬2018年歸母凈利 2018年上半年歸母2019年中報盈公司名稱 代碼貨幣 潤（百萬元） 凈利潤（百萬元） 利增長預(yù)測 備注中國生物制藥1177.HKCNY2,8411,42720~30%Normalizednetprofit三生制藥1530.HKCNY1,16656120~30%Normalizednetprofit石藥集團(tuán)1093.HKCNY3,1801,61220~30%威高股份1066.HKCNY1,58776215~20%Normalizednetprofit聯(lián)邦制藥3933.HKCNY625399-45~-55%Normalizednetprofit康哲藥業(yè)0867.HKCNY1,85095810~15%同仁堂國藥3613.HKHKD58130811~16%白云山0874.HKCNY3,4412,61927~37%剔除2018年公允價值變動的一次性收益中國中藥0570.HKCNY1,43976010~15%麗珠醫(yī)藥1513.HKCNY1,08263310~15%上海醫(yī)藥2607.HKCNY3,8812,0337~12%同仁堂科技1666.HKCNY678432-2~+3%石四藥集團(tuán)2005.HKHKD91244615~20%華潤醫(yī)藥3320.HKHKD4,0382,25010~15%資料來源：萬得資訊，公司年報，行情回顧與本周策略本周行情回顧A股醫(yī)藥A2.74%1.08%2.89%，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指上漲.。A股醫(yī)藥板塊漲幅前三分別是興齊眼藥（26.4、廣生堂（20.0（17.83（13.7（7.1塞隆藥業(yè)（3.9港股醫(yī)藥（23.5（19.6（15.3跌幅前三分別是巨星醫(yī)療控股（27.1、三愛健康集團(tuán)（23.5、中國醫(yī)療集團(tuán)（15.5美國中概股醫(yī)藥過去一周漲幅前三為泰和誠醫(yī)療（7.0、再鼎醫(yī)藥（+4.07%、百濟(jì)神州（+3.19%，跌幅前三為聯(lián)絡(luò)智能（17.3、萬春藥業(yè)（15.3、中國蘇軒堂藥業(yè)（12.29。圖表3:醫(yī)藥板塊及A股股價表現(xiàn)，相對估值溢價2014/12/312015/2/282014/12/312015/2/282015/4/302015/6/302015/8/312015/10/312015/12/312016/2/292016/4/302016/6/302016/8/312016/10/312016/12/312017/2/282017/4/302017/6/302017/8/312017/10/312017/12/312018/2/282018/4/302018/6/302018/8/312018/10/312018/12/312019/2/282019/4/302019/6/30

350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%請仔請仔相對估值溢價（右軸） 滬深300（左軸） 申萬醫(yī)藥指數(shù)（左軸）資料來源：萬得資訊，請仔本周中金醫(yī)藥投資組合投資組合：請仔A股：恒瑞醫(yī)藥、科倫藥業(yè)、通化東寶、華東醫(yī)藥、華潤三九、白云山、凱利泰。H股：中國生物制藥、石藥集團(tuán)、威高股份、三生制藥、石四藥集團(tuán)。近期工作：海外觀察：醫(yī)療健康：全球觀察|醫(yī)藥前沿進(jìn)展:RNAi藥物日本獲批上市（72日。熱點速評:研究報告：首批國家重點監(jiān)控合理用藥目錄出臺，醫(yī)藥調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)加速（72日。圖表4:近期工作近期工作海外觀察醫(yī)療健康：全球觀察|醫(yī)藥前沿進(jìn)展:全球首款RNAi藥物日本獲批上市熱點速評研究報告：首批國家重點監(jiān)控合理用藥目錄出臺，醫(yī)藥調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)加速資料來源：請仔圖表5:A股醫(yī)藥公司最近一周重點數(shù)據(jù)請仔證券代碼證券簡稱周收盤價(人民幣)周漲跌幅(%)周換手率(%)總市值(人民幣百萬)流通A股占總股本比例(%)周成交額(人民幣百萬)周成交量(千股)000028.SZ國藥一致42.651.961.6818,26071.882225,175000423.SZ東阿阿膠40.140.804.2926,252100.001,13828,064000513.SZ麗珠集團(tuán)25.935.096.4124,23863.6598834,582000661.SZ長春高新343.151.526.9358,37499.944,00911,782000963.SZ華東醫(yī)藥26.692.813.9746,702100.001,84269,476000999.SZ華潤三九30.002.252.2029,36799.9564221,520002007.SZ華蘭生物33.108.566.2246,44185.782,38574,847002022.SZ科華生物10.282.703.965,29799.5220920,317002044.SZ美年健康12.560.964.6439,20790.621,711132,457002223.SZ魚躍醫(yī)療24.46-0.653.8024,52186.4781732,921002262.SZ恩華藥業(yè)11.375.384.8511,59386.7247642,847002422.SZ科倫藥業(yè)29.39-1.145.7442,31571.711,77059,272002603.SZ以嶺藥業(yè)12.488.713.9115,05582.0047038,715002773.SZ康弘藥業(yè)32.54-1.152.6828,49270.9554616,649300003.SZ樂普醫(yī)療24.285.476.1043,25985.052,22292,475300015.SZ愛爾眼科30.78-0.613.7695,36981.102,93494,560300122.SZ智飛生物44.793.927.9071,66454.193,06068,487300199.SZ翰宇藥業(yè)9.230.654.598,46362.3124426,231300244.SZ迪安診斷17.311.944.0610,74067.3129416,945300326.SZ凱利泰9.282.542.906,70398.7219320,663300347.SZ泰格醫(yī)藥52.943.407.5639,69170.532,12040,001300363.SZ博騰股份9.2710.494.305,03179.1416318,457300463.SZ邁克生物25.381.623.4014,15965.6232012,452300558.SZ貝達(dá)藥業(yè)42.281.886.6216,95442.2448011,209600079.SH人福醫(yī)藥10.732.192.5514,52595.0035032,820600085.SH同仁堂31.037.002.8442,557100.001,18938,902600276.SH恒瑞醫(yī)藥67.402.122.66298,09899.577,984117,080600332.SH白云山41.802.036.3267,95865.892,85067,699600422.SH昆藥集團(tuán)11.560.2626.928,80099.702,397204,306600436.SH片仔癀113.88-1.153.3768,706100.002,32820,315600511.SH國藥股份23.401.874.9617,88736.3232113,785600521.SH華海藥業(yè)15.157.454.7318,95098.8585958,499600535.SH天士力17.032.904.7125,761100.001,21971,249600867.SH通化東寶15.29-0.716.0331,10096.051,857117,731600998.SH九州通12.24-0.971.0622,98389.1221917,674601607.SH上海醫(yī)藥18.220.393.0651,78367.661,07958,888603658.SH安圖生物629,04332.515547,871603883.SH老百姓60.583.592.4717,36093.183986,603603939.SH益豐藥房68.85-1.633.1126,08995.7278311,293002030.SZ達(dá)安基因10.972.242.418,74895.7920218,371002038.SZ雙鷺?biāo)帢I(yè)15.47-0.264.6315,893100.0075736,937002275.SZ桂林三金13.842.590.888,16890.37644,676002294.SZ信立泰22.651.212.2023,69299.9952523,013002390.SZ信邦制藥6.0114.044.2210,020100.0040470,285002424.SZ貴州百靈10.021.423.1314,14051.6122722,777002433.SZ太安堂5.040.602.373,86596.118917,446002462.SZ嘉事堂16.429.4710.094,11499.5239625,153002550.SZ千紅制藥4.823.883.676,17070.7015833,183002589.SZ瑞康醫(yī)藥7.51-1.0513.8811,30072.001,147150,366002653.SZ海思科15.6510.2113.0816,90642.1597659,581002788.SZ鷺燕醫(yī)藥8.243.526.002,69397.2515719,067300026.SZ紅日藥業(yè)3.39-1.741.7610,20781.0014842,963300039.SZ上海凱寶4.490.902.064,81199.159921,906300246.SZ寶萊特13.690.225.652,00073.76846,093300255.SZ常山藥業(yè)7.1415.9112.406,67669.1154680,099300267.SZ爾康制藥5.906.6920.7712,16965.801,628281,931300289.SZ利德曼6.14-1.923.352,58599.118713,978600056.SH中國醫(yī)藥14.306.005.9715,27994.7384960,474600518.SH康美藥業(yè)3.624.326.8318,00588.641,077301,068600557.SH康緣藥業(yè)16.007.676.349,48696.9858336,466600587.SH新華醫(yī)療16.815.6611.326,83299.2776145,679600594.SH益佰制藥5.362.105.024,245100.0021339,717600750.SH江中藥業(yè)13.413.073.357,040100.0023317,582600763.SH通策醫(yī)療88.900.355.5128,505100.001,57517,680600976.SH健民集團(tuán)16.520.182.832,53499.93724,335600993.SH馬應(yīng)龍18.595.3310.528,01399.8184145,261603108.SH潤達(dá)醫(yī)療11.559.179.486,69487.7153448,207603368.SH柳州醫(yī)藥33.903.104.938,78398.9342212,626603520.SH司太立24.516.105.374,115100.002169,016002166.SZ萊茵生物8.090.509.414,573100.0043953,159300238.SZ冠昊生物20.612.3321.575,46592.451,09052,871300194.SZ福安藥業(yè)5.51-3.5029.596,55566.231,291233,155002872.SZ*ST天圣6.085.1915.261,93367.6220032,825002118.SZ紫鑫藥業(yè)6.882.0816.188,81299.981,455207,172（）請仔圖表6:港股和美國中概股醫(yī)藥公司最近一周重點數(shù)據(jù)請仔證券代碼證券簡稱周收盤價(當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?周漲跌幅(%)周換手率(%)總市值(當(dāng)?shù)刎泿虐偃f)周成交額(當(dāng)?shù)刎泿虐偃f)周成交量(千股)H股0570.HK中國中藥3.841.050.8619,337169.343,375.10874.HK白云山35.951.992.6158,447206.45,744.91066.HK威高股份7.080.830.6232,018198.527,885.81093.HK石藥集團(tuán)12.862.062.2280,1991,807.0138,204.01099.HK國藥控股080,680358.513,111.91177.HK中國生物制藥8.8010.141.61110,7771,732.2203,057.71513.HK麗珠醫(yī)藥717,92998.34,553.31518.HK新世紀(jì)醫(yī)療4.000.000.001,9600.116.01530.HK三生制藥14.105.070.6435,743228.516,338.81666.HK同仁堂科技9.370.640.4612,00127.32,905.71763.HK中國同輻18.400.630.275,8864.1219.42005.HK石四藥集團(tuán)7.080.280.3221,48168.19,713.52607.HK上海醫(yī)藥15.34-0.131.2843,598180.211,785.53320.HK華潤醫(yī)藥8.830.230.3455,492189.821,135.13933.HK聯(lián)邦制藥4.302.630.787,05154.512,725.08138.HK同仁堂國藥0.000.000.00---0460.HK四環(huán)醫(yī)藥1.791.700.4316,94473.240,708.40587.HK華瀚生物制藥0.530.000.003,814--0867.HK康哲藥業(yè)7.514.890.9518,628175.623,676.40950.HK李氏大藥廠5.484.380.423,24613.52,493.01011.HK泰凌醫(yī)藥0.750.000.001,428--1358.HK普華和順1.001.010.111,5691.81,767.01515.HK鳳凰醫(yī)療5.954.390.567,71541.97,238.42120.HK康寧醫(yī)院39.15-0.250.172,9561.333.92186.HK綠葉制藥5.853.361.4719,159282.548,024.72348.HK東瑞制藥1.460.690.192,3124.32,960.82666.HK環(huán)球醫(yī)療6.351.600.5810,89962.09,887.53689.HK康華醫(yī)療5.080.590.431,6991.8363.22211.HK大健康國際0.158.630.205421.07,243.06160.HK百濟(jì)神州-B76.902.470.1859,98610.9141.73309.HK希瑪眼科5.4023.579.895,677577.5103,989.98158.HK中國再生醫(yī)學(xué)0.18-8.000.201620.31,799.02327.HK美瑞健康國際0.67-1.470.922,86226.539,159.01498.HK培力控股2.101.450.145200.7352.0美股中概股CBPO.O泰邦生物94.82-0.501.093,695-425.6BGNE.O百濟(jì)神州127.913.191.647,675-884.8HCM.O和黃中國醫(yī)藥22.572.592.383,009-3,177.2WX.N藥明康德45.900.000.003,259--CCM.N泰和誠醫(yī)療2.407.140.43104-186.9MR.N邁瑞公司5.43-10.984.13193-1,472.2KANG.O愛康國賓20.530.000.001,426--APM.O知臨集團(tuán)23.75-5.450.40688-25.9LLIT.O聯(lián)絡(luò)智能1.02-17.390.0218-4.1XYN.O徐諾藥業(yè)3.12-6.872.099-57.5CPHI.A惠普森醫(yī)藥0.31-4.822.7213-1,185.2（）請仔請仔行業(yè)要聞?wù)邍宜幤繁O(jiān)管局發(fā)布《2018年度藥品審評報告》7月1日，國家藥監(jiān)局藥品審評中心發(fā)布2018年度藥品審評報告。報告顯示藥審中心全年審評通過106個新藥（按品種統(tǒng)計，包含2個新中藥復(fù)方制劑、9個1類創(chuàng)新藥和6731383審評程序加速獲批上市；57個品種通過口服固體制劑仿制藥質(zhì)量和療效一致性評價。（tp:/n/2019/02/2467tl）國家衛(wèi)健委發(fā)布《關(guān)于印發(fā)第一批國家重點監(jiān)控合理用藥藥品目錄的通知》71日，國家衛(wèi)健委醫(yī)政醫(yī)管局發(fā)布了《關(guān)于印發(fā)第一批國家重點監(jiān)控合理用藥藥品（化藥及生物制品品的臨床應(yīng)用，加強目錄外藥品的處方管理并加強藥品臨床使用監(jiān)測和績效考核。（tp:/n/2019/02/2464tl）行業(yè)Grifols首款20%皮下免疫球蛋白獲FDA批準(zhǔn)上市GrifolsXembifyFDA20%皮下免疫球蛋白產(chǎn)品，用于治療2歲及2歲以上患者的原發(fā)性免疫缺陷?。≒I白血癥、普通變異型免疫缺陷?。–IVD）和嚴(yán)重聯(lián)合免疫缺陷（SCID）等。該產(chǎn)品計劃2019年四季度推向美國市場。（資料來源：新浪醫(yī)藥鏈接：/article_detail_103_2_68133.html）全新靶點多發(fā)性骨髓瘤新藥XPOVIO獲FDA批準(zhǔn)上市近日，KaryopharmXPOVIO（selinexor，德琪醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)品代號（RRMselinexor與硼替佐米和低劑量地塞米松聯(lián)合用于治療復(fù)發(fā)難治多發(fā)性骨髓瘤的三期臨床試驗已經(jīng)完成患者入組。（資料來源：新浪醫(yī)藥鏈接：/article_detail_103_2_68059.html）請仔請仔本周大事圖表7:本周重大事件提醒時間事件A股周一（7月8日）海正藥業(yè)(600267):股東大會互聯(lián)網(wǎng)投票起始華海藥業(yè)(600521):申萬行業(yè)變更海正藥業(yè)(600267):股東大會召開華東醫(yī)藥(000963):申萬行業(yè)變更周二（7月9日）美年健康(002044):分紅股權(quán)登記周三（7月10日）凱利泰(300326):分紅股權(quán)登記美年健康(002044):分紅派息美年健康(002044):紅股上市美年健康(002044):分紅除權(quán)白云山(600332):分紅股權(quán)登記周四（7月11日）白云山(600332):分紅除權(quán)凱利泰(300326):分紅除權(quán)凱利泰(300326):分紅派息白云山(600332):分紅派息潤達(dá)醫(yī)療(603108):分紅股權(quán)登記潤達(dá)醫(yī)療(603108):分紅除權(quán)潤達(dá)醫(yī)療(603108):分紅派息H股周五（7月12日）上海醫(yī)藥(2607):分紅除權(quán)資料來源：萬得資訊，請仔圖表8:A股可比公司估值表請仔公司名稱代碼收盤價(元)2019/7/7總市值（百萬元）每股收益(元)2018A 2019E 2020E2018AP/E2019E2020E2018AP/B2019E2020E恒瑞醫(yī)藥60027667.40298,0980.921.221.4973.3x55.0x45.1x15.1x12.3x10.0x華東醫(yī)藥00096326.6946,7021.551.922.3515.8x13.9x11.4x3.9x3.2x2.6x恩華藥業(yè)00226211.3711,5930.510.650.7922.1x17.6x14.3x3.9x3.3x2.7x人福醫(yī)藥60007910.7314,5250.900.640.7411.9x16.8x14.4x3.0x1.0x0.9x科倫藥業(yè)00242229.3942,3150.841.121.4634.9x26.2x20.1x3.3x3.0x2.7x貝達(dá)藥業(yè)30055842.2816,9540.420.450.53101.6x93.3x79.5x7.7x7.3x6.8x康弘藥業(yè)00277332.5428,4920.790.931.1541.0x35.1x28.2x5.4x4.7x4.0x凱萊英002821102.0023,604-2.473.23-41.3x31.5x-7.6x6.2x信立泰00229422.6523,692-1.361.44-16.7x15.7x-3.1x2.7x化學(xué)制劑藥——中值10,63934.2x26.2x18.6x4.6x3.2x2.7x化學(xué)原料藥——中值6,80131.4x23.9x19.4x2.1x2.0x1.8x生物制藥——中值16,30237.1x26.0x20.5x4.2x3.1x2.8x現(xiàn)代中藥——中值5,12018.7x17.3x15.3x2.2x2.2x1.9x品牌中藥——中值8,96418.0x21.6x18.0x3.0x2.8x2.5x綜合性制藥企業(yè)——中值13,76019.7x18.8x15.8x2.1x1.5x1.3x醫(yī)藥商業(yè)——中值10,58116.1x14.1x12.0x1.8x1.4x1.2x醫(yī)療服務(wù)——中值33,85684.1x63.8x45.3x11.3x9.8x8.2xCRO&CMO——中值23,60446.4x33.7x26.8x7.6x6.2x5.4x器械和診斷——中值6,15435.5x28.5x22.6x7.1x3.7x3.2x體外診斷——中值8,74829.5x23.8x19.5x4.3x3.6x3.0x全行業(yè)——中值8,40330.0x23.9x19.0x3.4x2.5x2.2x（）請仔圖表9:港股可比公司估值表請仔公司名稱代碼2019/7/7收盤價（港元）總市值（百萬港元）每股收益（本幣單位）2018A2019E2020E2018A市盈率2019E2020E2018A市凈率2019E2020E企業(yè)價值倍數(shù)2018A2019E2020E凈資產(chǎn)收益率（）2018A2019E2020E股息收益率2018PEG2019E港股醫(yī)藥綜合體上市公司上海醫(yī)藥2607.HK15.3453,8121.371.541.71.08.57.911.410.711.23.00.7白云山874.HK35.9574,5142.121.902.2515.016.71.918.716.012.716.014.214.3n.a.n.a.華潤醫(yī)藥3320.HK8.8355,4920.640.760.8713.711.76.79.911.512.01.50.7市值加權(quán)平均68,19213.0市值加權(quán)平均68,19213.012.61.312.311.19.512.512.6中值74,51413.211.90.910.09.47.911.612.312.03.00.7港股制藥行業(yè)上市公司石藥集團(tuán)1093.HK12.8680,1990.510.640.7922.217.83.314.611.69.621.723.9同仁堂科技1666.HK9.3712,0010.530.570.6215.614.66.812.512.8同仁堂國藥3613.HK13.7011,4680.690.800.9219.717.02.912.711.19.621.51.1麗珠醫(yī)藥1513.HK19.1824,2071.511.772.089.710.811.5n.a.0.5中國生物制藥1177.HK8.80110,7770.230.270.3033.829.42.817.611.8石四藥集團(tuán)2005.HK7.0821,4810.300.380.4523.418.915.85.04.13.515.512.910.923.724.6三生制藥1530.HK14.1035,7430.420.510.6229.424.72.719.816.213.814.31.2中國中藥570.HK3.8419,3370.280.350.41.11.04.410.410.612.01.90.4聯(lián)邦制藥3933.HK4.307,0510.370.390.431.11.05.88.810.4康哲藥業(yè)867.HK7.5118,6280.740.860.97.47.06.524.423.0中國同輻1763.HK18.405,8861.011.191.3816.113.73.412.310.8藥明康德2359.HK71.00121,7561.931.962.4432.44.94.439.931.525.014.724.7李氏大藥廠950.HK5