Unepfi-房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的氣候風(fēng)險（英）-2023.3

Sectoral

Risk

Brie?ngs:Insights

forFinancialInstitutionsClimateRisks

in

theReal

Estate

SectorMarch2023AcknowledgmentsAuthorsUNEP

FIDavidCarlinMaheenArshadKatyBakerHeadofClimateRiskand

TCFD(david.carlin@)ClimateRiskManager(mahaeen.arshad@)

(katy.baker@)ClimateRiskAssociateThe

authors

would

speci?cally

like

to

acknowledge

the

contributions,

inputs,

andsupportingresearchthathaveenabledthecompletionofthisreport:HinaMajid,UNEPFIJoanaPedro,UNEPFIIn

addition,the

authors

are

gratefulto

the

banks

and

investors

who

participatedin

thesectorexercisesofthepilotprojectandprovidedfeedbackonthisreport.Project

managementTheprojectwassetup,managed,andcoordinatedby

theUNEnvironmentProgrammeFinance

Initiative,

speci?cally:

Remco

Fischer

(kai.?scher@)

and

David

Carlin(david.carlin@)Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector2Contents

|The

pilot

project

was

led

by

a

Working

Group

of

the

following

banks

and

investorsconvenedbytheUNEnvironmentProgrammeFinanceInitiative:ABN-AMROAccessBankAIBDanskeBankDesjardinsDNBMizuhoMUFGNABBankofAmericaBankofIrelandBanorteBarclaysBBVAEBRDNatWestNIBRabobankRBCSantanderScotiaBankSovcomBankStandardBankStorebrandTDAssetManagementTDBankFarmCreditCanadaFirstRandForbrightBankFTFGoldmanSachsHSBCING

IntesaSanpaoloInvestaItauBMOBradescoCaixaBankCDLCIBCIBCKBFGCitibanamexCOEKBCLinkreitTSKBUBSCreditSuisseManulifeWellsFargoSectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector3Contents

|ContentsAcknowledgments..................................................................................................................................2Introduction

............................................................................................................................................6Realestatesectoroverview....................................................................................................................7Transitionrisks.....................................................................................................................................101.2.3.4.5.6.Increasingregulationandpolicypressure......................................................................................12Costofindirectemissions

.................................................................................................................16Shiftingmarketpreferences

..............................................................................................................17Changeininvestorsentiment

...........................................................................................................19Reputationalrisks................................................................................................................................20Transitionriskguidance

.....................................................................................................................23SECTION2:

..........................................................................................................................................26Physicalrisks.......................................................................................................................................261.2.3.4.5.6.7.Sealevelriseandcoastal?ooding...................................................................................................28Inland?ooding......................................................................................................................................30Extremestormsandwind..................................................................................................................32Wild?res.................................................................................................................................................34Subsidence............................................................................................................................................37Heatandwaterstress.........................................................................................................................38Physicalriskguidance

........................................................................................................................42References...........................................................................................................................................45Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector4Contents

|Listof?gures,

tables

and

casestudiesFigure1:Figure2:Figure3:ProjectedtransitionandphysicalriskinMSCI’s

GlobalAnnualPropertyIndex..................

7PriceofEPCratedpropertiesovertime....................................................................................13AggregateimpairmentratesbycurrentandestimatedEPCratingsundertheearlyactionscenario...................................................................................................14Correlationbetweenenergy-e?cientbuildingsandhigherrentsfoundFigure4:intheliterature,shownasrentalpremiums

.............................................................................19Exampleofanenergyperformancecerti?cate(EPC)forabuilding

...................................22Citiesatriskfromsealevelriseof0.5metresbythe2050s

................................................28Globalinsuredlossesfrom?oodingfrom1991to2021.......................................................31Cumulativevaluechangeofrealestateforquartersafterhurricanes,Figure5:Figure6:Figure7:Figure8:bypropertytype

.............................................................................................................................32Likelihoodofwild?resamongpropertiesatrisktodayandin30years..............................35Areasexpectedtoexperiencesigni?cantincreaseinsusceptibilitytoFigure9:Figure10:subsidenceby2030and2070....................................................................................................37Table

1:Table

2:Table

3:Table

4:Keyclimaterisksfortherealestatesector

................................................................................8Overviewofclimate-relatedriskstostakeholdersinhousing

................................................9Examplesoftransitionrisksfortherealestatesector...........................................................11EffectofclimatechangeonenergydemandforresidentialbuildingsinEurope..............38Casestudy1:

Operationalandmarketpreferencerisk....................................................................................11Casestudy2:

Technologicalandconstructionrisk..........................................................................................15Casestudy3:

Shiftingmarketpreferencesrisk.................................................................................................18Casestudy4:

Extremeweatherrisk(i)................................................................................................................27Casestudy5:

Extremeweatherrisk(ii)...............................................................................................................33Casestudy6:

Heatstressandwild?rerisk

........................................................................................................39Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector5Contents

|IntroductionIn

thepastfew

years,theglobaleconomyhasbeenlashedby

theCOVID-19

pandemic,geopoliticalcon?ict,supplychaindisruptions,anenergycrisis,andhighin?ation.

Thesechallengesareoccurringagainstthebackdropofthemountingplanetaryemergencyofclimatechange.Climatechangecanexacerbateallotherchallenges;increasinggeopo-liticalcon?ictsoverresources,cripplinginfrastructureandsupplychains,extendingtherange

ofdangerouspathogens,

andcausing

the

collapse

ofthe

naturalsystems

uponwhich

we

depend.

As

the

US

Pentagon

presciently

stated:

“climate

change

is

a

threatmultiplier”.

While

the

transition

to

a

sustainable,

net-zero

future

is

critical,

it

demandsfundamentalshifts

in

nearly

alleconomicsectors.

Theseshifts

are

notwithoutrisk

forcompaniesandthecommunitiesimpactedbythem.Financialinstitutionsfaceanarrayofrisksfromthisrapidlychanging,andoftenchaotic,globalcontext.

Theirclientsare

exposedto

physicalhazardsaswellastransition

risks.Thesecanhavemajorcredit,market,andoperationalimplications.

Theprudent?nancialinstitution

willexplore

theseclimate-related

risks

andprepare

strategies

to

meetthem.Ensuring

resiliency

and

success

in

the

future

depends

on

making

gooddecisionsandthoughtfulplanstoday.UNEP

FI

has

been

working

atthe

intersection

ofsustainabilityand

?nance

forover

30years.Its

programmes

for

?nancialinstitutions

develop

the

tools

andpractices

neces-sary

to

positively

address

the

most

pressing

environmental

challenges

of

our

time.UNEPFI’s

Climate

Risk

and

TCFD

programme

hasnow

worked

with

over

100?nancialinstitutions

to

explore

physical

and

transition

risks

posed

by

climate

change.

Throughthis

work,

a

need

has

been

identi?ed

to

provide

?nancial

institutions

with

a

baselineunderstandingofclimate-relatedrisksandtheirmanifestationsacrossdifferentsectors.Thisbriefispartofa

seriesofnotesthatcover

majoreconomicsectorsandtheirasso-ciated

climaterisks.UNEPFIintendsfortheresourcesandperspectivesincludedwithinthese

notes

to

empower

?nancial

colleagues

to

communicate

these

risks

throughouttheir

institutions

and

across

the

?nancial

sector

more

generally.

The

hope

is

that

thecommunication

processwillnotonly

enhance

awareness

ofclimate

risks,butalso

beginconversations

thatwilllead

to

tangible

changesin

strategy

andoperations.

Theextentto

whichtheseinsightsareintegratedwillbethetruesttestofthisseries’effectiveness.Thisparticular

briefcoversthephysicalandtransitionrisksfacingtherealestatesector.Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector6Contents

|

IntroductionReal

estate

sector

overviewClimate

risks

are

already

materialising

for

the

real

estate

sector,

and

their

frequencyandseverityare

expectedto

increaseinthecomingyears.Physicalandtransitionrisksthreaten

real

estateasset

cash?ows

aswell

as

thefuture

value

of

the

assetsthemselves.Extreme

weather

and

physical

hazards,

such

as

hurricanes,

?oods,

and

wild?res,

cancausesubstantialdamagetorealestatelocatedin

vulnerableareas.

Thesector(directlyandindirectly)is

responsibleforabout40%

ofallgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsglob-ally

(UNEP

FI,

2022).

As

a

result,

actions

taken

to

decarbonise

the

global

economy

tomeet

climate

goals

will

have

strong

cost

implications

for

the

sector.

The

?gure

belowshowstheprojectedphysicalandtransitionriskforrealestatefromMSCI’sGlobalProp-erty

IndexusingitsrealestateClimateValue-at-RiskModel(Figure1)(MSCI,2022).Figure

1:

Projected

transition

andphysicalriskinMSCI’s

GlobalAnnualProperty

Index(MSCI,

2022)Below,

weexploreindepththekey

physicalandtransitionrisksfacedby

therealestatesector(Table

1).Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector7Contents

|

Realestatesector

overviewTable

1:

Key

climaterisksfor

thereal

estatesectorRiskSummaryTransitionRisksIncreasingregulationandpolicypressureThesectorwillbeimpactedbyincreasingregulationandnewpolicies,suchasstricterbuildingstandards,carbonpricing,andadditionalreportingstandards.CostofindirectemissionsActivitieslikeconstruction,refurbishment,anddemolitioncontributesigni?cantlytoindirectemissions.Althougharealestatecompanymaynothavedirectcontrolovertheseemissions,itcouldexertin?uenceovertheirmagnitude.Ascarbon-intensivebuildingmaterialsbecomemorecostlyinthecomingyears,constructioncostswillrise.ShiftingmarketpreferencesAsawarenessofclimatechangegrows,tenantsandpoten-tialbuyersarebeginningtoexpectmorefromtherealestatesectorregardingemissionsreductions.

Thesectorfacesnewrisksaspreferencesshifttowardshigh-e?ciencybuildingswithrenewableenergysources.ChangeininvestorsentimentTo

alignportfoliostoclimategoals,investorscouldattempttooffsetemissionselsewhereintheirportfoliotocounterhigh-emittingbuildingsorfavourlow-emittingrealestateassets.ReputationalriskInactiontodecarbonisecouldresultintherealestatesectorfacingpublicpressuretoreduceitsshareofemissions.PhysicalRisks

SealevelriseandSealevelriseandcoastal?oodingwillbecomemorefrequentandsevere,increasingpropertydamageandcausinghigherrepairandmaintenancecosts.coastal?oodingInland?oodingInland?oodingduetothegreaterfrequencyandseverityofcoastalstormsorextremeprecipitationeventscanincreasepropertydamage.Drivenbyrapidurbanisation,itcanalsocausethecostsofrepairingandmaintainingpropertiestorise.ExtremestormsandwindGreaterseverityandfrequencyofextremestorms,suchashurricanes,cancausedamageworthbillionsofdollars.Extremestormscannegativelyimpactthevalueofcommer-cialrealestateinthenearterm.Wild?resMillionsofresidentialandcommercialbuildingshavebeenbuiltinareaspronetowild?res.Withtheintensityandsever-ityofsuch?resincreasing,thelikelihoodofthesepropertiesbeingdestroyedbyawild?rerises.SubsidenceAnincreasingnumberofrealestateassetsarelikelytobeatriskofsubsidenceinthecomingyears,potentiallycausingseriousstructuraldamageto

buildings.HeatandwaterstressRisingheatwillcreatenewcoolingneedsforbuildings,increasingoperatingcosts.Waterstresswillalsoleadtohigheroperatingcostsduetoincreasedwaterprices,theneedtoimprovewatere?ciency,andtheregulationofwateruse.Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector8Contents

|

Realestatesector

overviewTable2

belowhighlightshowthesekeyphysicalandtransitionriskscanimpactstakeholdersintherealestatesector,especiallyinhous-ing.Table

2:

Overview

ofclimate-related

risksto

stakeholdersinhousing(adaptedfrom

Mortgage

Bankers

Association,

2021)RiskOwnersBuyersRentersLendersServicersGovernmentSponsoredEnterprisesInvestorsInsurersGovernmentPropertydamagexxxxxxMortgagedefaultriskxxxxxxxMortgageprepaymentriskAdverseselectionofloanssoldxxxxxxMoralhazardxxxHousepriceriskxxxxxxClimatemigrationxSectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector9Contents

|

Realestatesector

overviewSECTION

1:Transition

risksTheroleoftherealestatesectorinconstructingandoperatingbuildingsaroundtheworldmakesitresponsibleforaround40%ofglobalGHGemissions.Asaresult,theambitionto

achievenetzerodemandsmajorchangesto

thesectorandpresentsitwithvarioustransitionrisks,suchasdecliningmarketattractiveness,increasingregulation,andreputationrisk.

Table

3belowhighlightskeytransitionrisksfortherealestatesector.Thetransitionrisksfacingtherealestatesectoralsoposeariskforworkersandcommunitiesthatrelyonthethesectorforjobsandincome.Itisthereforeimportanttoalign?nancingwithajusttransitionapproachthatconsiderstheimpactofthetransitionongroupsatrisktooperationsintherealestatesector,includingworkers,IndigenousPeoplesandlocalcommunities.Casestudy

1:Operational

and

market

preference

riskLandsec

AnnualReport,

2021The

UK’s

largest

commercial

property

development

andinvestmentcompanyClimatescenarioanalysis:>2°Cpathway(until2030)High

transition

risks

associated

with

aggressive

mitigation

actions

to

reduceemissions?

Minimum

Energy

E?ciency

Standards

(MEES)

raise

requirements

for

allnon-domesticrentedpropertiestomeetaminimumEPCB,potentiallyimpact-ingnearly80%of?oorarea?

Increased

pricing

of

carbon

emissions

expected

to

reach

GBP87/tCO2(US$100/tCO

),impactingoperationalcosts2?

Change

in

customer

expectations

regarding

o?ces,

as

more

companiescommittedto

becomingnetzeroandsetscience-basedtargetsTable

3:

Examples

oftransition

risksfor

thereal

estatesector

(UNEP

FI,

2022)TransitionRiskImpactonrealestateDecliningmarketattractiveness?

Lowerdemand(investorandtenants)?

Lowercompetitiveadvantagebyincreasingenergycostsforpropertieswithhigh-energyintensitiesDecliningattractivenessofsubmarketsduetoincreasedvulnerabilityandexposuretohighercosts?

Reducedassetvaluesmayleadto

adepressedmarketenvironment?

DecreasingmarketvaluesIncreasingregulation?

Tax

increases,e.g.carbontax?

Decreaseinsubsidiesforcertaintechnologies?

Extracostsfromreportingrequirements?

Additionalinvestmentcoststobringtherealestateportfolioinlinewithnationallaws?

EnforcedrulesthatpropertiescanonlyberentediftheymeetacertainenergystandardLegislationfocusedonclimatechange—e.g.disclosureofclimaterisks,stricterbuildingstan-dards,carbonpricing,carboncredits,etc.Risksto

reputationandmarketpositioning?

Lossofreputationifactionistoolateorifnoactionistaken?

Reputationalrisksforcompaniesthatdonotsu?cientlyconsiderESGtopicsintheirstrategyStakeholderdemandforrealestatecompanieswhereclimaterisksareincludedintheinvest-mentcalculationSectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector11Contents

|

Transition

risks1.

Increasing

regulation

andpolicypressureTherealestate

sectorcould

face

increasing

regulation

and

the

implementation

ofnewpolicies,

such

as

stricter

building

standards,

carbon

pricing,

and

additional

reportingstandards.Forexample,somejurisdictionsareconsideringnew

e?ciencyrequirementsto

improve

energy

e?ciency

and

the

electri?cation

of

buildings,

such

as

by

improvingthermalinsulation

and

a

ban

offuel-and

gas-based

heating

systems

(UNEPFI,2022).This

can

be

seen

in

Hong

Kong’s

Climate

Action

Plan

2050,

which

includes

measuresemphasisingtheimportanceofenergysaving

andgreen

buildings.

Thecity’s

goalis

toreduce

the

electricity

consumptionof

commercialbuildings

by

30

to

40%

andresiden-tial

buildings

by

20

to

30%

by

2050,

compared

to

2015

levels.

Hong

Kong

also

plansto

expand

the

scope

of

its

energy

e?ciency

regulation

to

cover

all

buildings

with

highenergy

consumption,

including

data

centres.

Other

measures

comprise:

promotingretro-commission;mandatingtheimplementation

ofenergymanagementopportunities;conducting

regularenergy

audits;tightening

standards

related

to

air-condition

electric-ity

in

commercialbuildings;andaccepting

accredited

certi?cationschemesforenergye?ciency(HongKongGovernment,2021).Thoughsuchregulations

arelikely

to

be

accompanied

by

governmentalsubsidies,house-holdsandbusinessesmay

incurhighretro?tting

costsorrisk

theirassetsbeingpricedoutofthemarket.A

2021report

totheUKParliamentestimatedthatinvestmentsworthbetween

GBP35

billion

and

GBP65

billion

are

needed

to

bring

all

homes

up

to

EnergyPerformanceCerti?cate

(EPC)Standardsby2035.However,costscouldbesigni?cantlyhigher,withsomeestimatesbeingupto?vetimeslarger(UK

Parliament,

2021).In

2018,the

UK

government

implemented

the

Minimum

Energy

E?ciency

Standard

(MEES)

inEnglandandWalestoencouragelandlordsandproperty

ownerstoimprovetheirenergye?ciency.

The

standard

sets

a

minimum

energy

e?ciency

level

for

domestic

privaterented

properties(UKGovernment,2020).

Thepolicyrestrictsthecontinuationofexist-ing

tenancies

where

the

property

is

not

energy

e?cient,

basedon

its

EPC

rating.Alter-natively,

landlords

could

face

a

?neofupto

GBP5,000.A

studyby

the

BankofEnglandshowedpricesofpropertiesaffectedbythepolicydecreasedbyGBP5,000toGBP9,000compared

to

unaffected

properties.

Despite

prices

rising

for

all

EPC-rated

properties,they

increase

more

forproperties

thatare

less

energy

e?cient

initially.

However,

prop-erties

become

more

energy-e?cient

over

time

due

to

higher

demand

(Figure

2).

ThestudyalsodeterminedthattheMEES2018policyonlyimpactedmortgages

againsttheleastenergy-e?cientpropertieswith

EPCratings

of“F”and

“G”.

Theloan-to-value

ratiooftheiroutstanding

mortgageswasslightly

less

thanthe

totalsampleanalysed

(BankofEngland,2021).Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector12Contents

|

Transition

risksFigure

2:

PriceofEPC

rated

properties

over

time

(Bank

of

England,

2021)TheBankofEngland’s

2021ClimateBiennialExploratoryScenarioassessedtheimpactofanearlyaction

(earlyandorderlytransitioningbeginningin

2021)andlateaction

(lateand

disorderly

transition

beginning

in

2031)

scenarios

on

mortgage

losses

for

bankstill2050.

Theexercise

showedthatimpairmentrates

willbe

high

forpropertieswhosepotentialenergye?ciencyratingsbelongtothelowestcategoriesof“F”and“G”,makingthesepropertiesunmarketableby

2050.Delayed

policyimplementationleadsto

highermortgage

lossesduetoa

macroeconomicdownturn.

This,in

turn,leadstohigherunem-ploymentandfallinghouseprices.Inbothearlyactionandlateactionscenarios,house-holds

are

assumed

to

bearthe

cost

ofimproving

the

energy

e?ciency

of

homes,withtotalaggregatecostsofaroundGBP75billion(BankofEngland,2022).Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector13Contents

|

Transition

risksFigure

3:

Aggregate

impairmentrates

by

current

andestimatedEPC

ratings

under

theearlyaction

scenario(Bank

of

England,

2022).Newbuildings

are

also

likely

to

becomesubjectto

moredemanding

construction

andenergy

e?ciency

standards,

thereby

increasing

costs.

In

May

2022,

the

Los

AngelesCity

Council

voted

to

ban

the

majority

of

gas

appliances

in

new

construction

projectsto

increasetherate

ofelectri?cationofbuildingsandto

make

newbuildingsreachzeroemissionsusingaphased-inapproach(Los

Angeles

Times,

2022).Itmaysubsequentlybecomeuneconomicaltoupgradeorretro?tsomeassets.Inaddition,buildingsthatdonot

meet

certain

standards

may

become

illegal

to

build,

rent,

or

sell,

thus

resulting

inprematureobsolescenceandsigni?cantwrite-downs.Sectoral

RiskBrie?ngs:InsightsforFinancialInstitutions|

ClimateRisksintheRealEstateSector14Contents

|

Transition

risksCasestudy

2:

Technological

and

construction

riskCityDevelopmentsLimited

(CDL)IntegratedSustainability

Report,

2021Singaporeanmultinational

real

estatecompanyTransitionrisksBuildingstandardsStandardsthatmandatebuilding

andenergye?ciencywould

directlyaffect

CDL’scosts

from

increased

investment

in

technology.

However,

there

may

be

futureopportunities

to

embrace

the

technology

types

that

are

currently

not

cost-e?-cientbutmay

becomeso

undera

high

carbonprice

scenario.CDL

mayalso

enjoyenergy

cost

savings

if

all

CDL

hotels

are

retro?tted

to

the

highest

energy

e?-ciencystandard.ConstructioncostsHigherexpectationsonenergye?ciencywillresultin

higherconstructioncostsdue

to

the

inclusion

ofgreen

features

in

new

developmentproperties.Potentialmandates

that

call

for

the

use

of

sustainable

construction

materials

will

alsoraiseconstructioncostsMitigatingactionsMeet

net-zero

carbon

commitment

through

building

design

and

material

selec-tion:formulateclearstepstoachievenet-zerooperationalcarbon;offsetunavoid-able

emissions

using

emerging

and

innovative

technologies;may

include

greenbuilding

materials,districtcooling,incorporating

renewables

through

BIPV

andleveragingAItechnologyto

reducewaterandenergyuse.Promote

construction

designs

for

waste

reduction

and

management:

embeddedicated

waste

segregation

capabilities

within

buildings;

use

materials

andcomponentsthatcanbeeasilyre