世界能源展望2023

2023EnergyPerspectivesGlobalmacroeconomicandenergymarket

outlookWE

BUILDTOO

MANYWALLSANDNOT

ENOUGHBRIDGESSir

Isaac

Newton2

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EnergyPerspectives2023Table

ofcontentsPhotocreditsPage3Page4Page5Page5Page7JohannaMontoya,

UnsplashTable

ofcontents???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????3Thescenarios??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

4Key

insightsfrom

EnergyPerspectives2023???????????????????????7Appendix???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????12Key

?gures????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????13Unitsandde?nitions?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????14Acknowledgementsanddisclaimer?????????????????????????????????????????15JoshuaKettle,

UnsplashFabio

Comparelli,UnsplashMarcusLoke,

UnsplashJonatanPie,UnsplashPage12

JanKopriva,UnsplashPage14

ZbynekBurival,UnsplashPage15

OleJ?rgenBratland,EquinorEnergyPerspectives2023

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3THESCENARIOS4

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EnergyPerspectives2023ThescenariosEnergy

Perspectives

presentstwoscenariosfor

globaldevelopmentandfuture

globalenergy

markets:WallsandBridges.Thescenariosstartfrom

theworldasitistoday,wheretheenergytransitionhasbegunbuthasyetto

accelerateto

thespeedrequired

to

achievethegoalsoftheParisAgreement?Theysharenear-identicalpathsup

until2025,

atwhichpointtheystartto

diverge?Walls

showsapathwayofwheretheworldcouldgoifitcontinuesto

broadlyfollowcurrenttrends,whilstBridges

illustratesapathwaytheworldwouldneedto

followto

reachthe1?5°Ctarget?Asharpdichotomyisemergingbetweentheslow,incrementalchangethatcharacterisestheenergytransitionseentoday,

andtheaccelerationnecessaryto

achievetheradicalchangesrequired

to

move

theworldontoasustainablepath?Thetwoscenariosencapsulatethisdichotomy?Bothscenariosconsiderthesamesetofdrivers,rangingfrom

economicgrowthandtechnologicaldevelopmentto

climatepolicyandgeopolitics,andbothscenariosrecognisetheprofoundsystemicchangerequiredto

puttheenergysystem

onamoresustainabletrack?Thedi?erencebetweenthetwoscenariosistherelativeforce

ofthesedriversandtheextentto

whichtheyin?uencethefuturepathoftheglobalenergysystem

after2025?Inshort,Walls

failsto

deliveronthetransitionneededto

reachclimateambitions,whilstBridges

doesnot?Thefutureofenergymarketsisdi?icultto

predict?Recenteventshaveshownitisnotonlythelong-termdevelopmentofmacroeconomicsandenergymarketsthatare

uncertain?Covid-19

hasonlyashort-termimpactinbothscenarios,withChinabeingthelastmajoreconomyto

exititszero-covidpolicythisyea

?TheRussianinvasionofUkraineandtheassociatedgeopoliticaltensionshavegivenriseto

thereappearance

ofobstaclesto

cooperationandexistingtrade

andsupply?owswhichmayhavelong-lastinge?ects?Energy

Perspectives

does

not

try

topredict

thefuture

but

shows

possible

future

paths

for

theglobal

energy

systembased

on

the

choices

theworld

makes,

providing

a

platform

for

debate

andinformed

decision-making.EnergyPerspectives2023

|

5WallsBridgesWalls

signifytheabundanceofbarriersblockingfundamentalandaccelerated

changeintheglobalenergy

system.IfWalls

signifythebarriersto

change,Bridgesrepresent

theovercomingof

thesebarriersandtheimpetustowards

accelerated

change.Throughouthumanhistory,

wallshavebeenbuilttoprotect

usfrom

thethingsthatwe

fear:intruders,plagues,viruses,theweather,

andwildanimals?Inadvertently,wallsexcludeus,cuto?optionsandplaceobstaclesinourpath?Walls

shieldus,butalsoformbarriersto

transitionandmovement?Bridgeshelpusto

connect,allowingpeopleto

reachplacestheywouldnototherwisehavebeenabletoreachandachievethingstheywouldnototherwisehavebeenableto

achieve?Bridgesare

open-endedandfacilitatetransition,movement,trade

andcommunication?Wallsprotect,

but

they

also

divide.Bridges

connect

and

enable.TheWalls

scenariobuildsoncurrenttrendsinmarket,technologyandpolicy,assumingthemto

continuedevelopingataslowlyacceleratingpaceinthefuture?Economicgrowthremainsthekey

driverforgrowingenergydemand,andnationalgovernmentscontinueto

prioritiseshort-termeconomicgrowthover

long-termclimategoals?LegislationsuchastheUSIn?ationReductionAct

(IRA)andtheEUGreenDealIndustrialPlanhighlightsthereturnofindustrialpolicies,whichmayacceleratetheenergytransition,butmayalsocreate

marketdistortionsandine?icienciesthatmaketheenergytransitionmore

costly?

Geopoliticaltensionsinthewake

oftheRussianinvasionofUkraineleadtolong-lastinge?ectsoneconomicdevelopmentandgovernmentpolicy,especiallyintheCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS),theEUandChina?TheBridges

scenarioisanormativeback-castconstrainedby

anenergy-relatedCO?

emissionsbudgetof445GtCO?

compliantwitha50%probabilityofnomore

thana1?5°Ctemperaturerise*?Abenigngeopoliticallandscapeisestablished,supportingrenewedcooperationandfriendlycompetitionamongnations?Energymarketsbecomemore

integratedandtechnologicaladvancementsare

sharedmore

readily?

Climateactionremainsthekey

driver,

andallregionsare

underpressureto

rapidly

phaseoutfossilfuels,buildrenewablecapacity,

improve

energye?iciencyandmake

drasticbehaviouralchanges?Theacceleratedtransitionbringssigni?cantchangesto

theenergysystem

evenbefore

2030?Thisambitiousscenarioservesto

illustratetheenormouschallengetheworldisfacedwith?Itistechnicallywithinreach,butwhetheritisalsopracticallyandeconomicallyachievable,andsaleableto

voters

oncealltheimplicationsare

clear,

isopento

debate?Thescenarioisnotanchoredindetailedanalyticalconvictionsbutratheraimsto

stimulatediscussionsaroundthefeasibilityofthechangesrequired

to

limitglobalwarmingto

1?5°Cby

theendofthecentury?Theenergytransitionislimitedby

cooperationandtrust,andalthoughclimatepoliciescontinueto

tighten,withmomentumdrivenmainlyby

theindustrialisedregions,thescenariodoesnotmeetallstated

targetsanddoesnotmove

fastenoughto

satisfythegoalsoftheParisAgreement?Changeissimplynothappeningfastenough?Walls

isastoryaboutanenergytransitionthatisslowlyaccelerating,butthatdoesnotreachclimatetargets?However,

itisimportantto

note

thatthechangestotheglobalenergysystem

outlinedinWalls

are

notagiven?Theywillstillrequire

enormouschangesto

thefoundationsoftheglobalenergysystem?*

The

IPCC’s6th

Assessment

Report

puts

the

CO?budgetfor2020-50

period

at

500

Gt.

This

budget

is

tobe

sharedbetween

emissions

in

energy,in

industrial

uses

likecement,

andin

agriculture.

In

this

analysis

a

budget

of445

Gt

is

allocated

toemissions

forenergy

purposes.6

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EnergyPerspectives2023KEYINSIGHTSEnergyPerspectives2023

|

7Key

insightsfrom

Energy

Perspectives

2023Energy

Perspectives

presentstwoscenariosfor

economicandenergymarket

development,Walls

andBridges.Walls

buildsoncurrentenergymarkettrendsandenergyandclimatepolicies,assumingclimateactionto

progress

ataslowlyacceleratingpaceinthefuture?Bridges

isanormativeback-castcomplyingwiththe1?5°CWALLSBRIDGEScarbonbudget,demonstratingtheenormousandsustainede?ortsrequiredto

reachthistarget?Theworldwillcontinuetoneedenergy,butwillbecomemoreenergye?icientWallsBridgesHistoryGDPGDPHistorically,between1990-2020energyintensityimproved

by

1?2%peryea

?Towards

2050,

theenergyintensitydeclinesby

1?9%peryearinWalls

and3?2%peryearinBridges

withelectri?cationbeingthekeyenable

?EnergydemandEnergydemand20202050Source:

IEA,

?

OxfordEconomics

Limited

2023

(history),Equinor

(projections)Peakdemandforfossilfuelsarrivesbefore2030GlobalfossilfueldemandGtoe16128InWalls,thepeakoccursin2026,followedby

agentledownward

trajectory?InBridges,fossilfueldemanddeclinesatarapidpaceafter2025?By

2050,

allremainingfossilfueluseiseitherfullyabatedorcompensatedbycarbonremoval?4020102020Walls2030Bridges20402050Source:

IEA

(history),

Equinor

(projections)History8

|

EnergyPerspectives2023GasdemandwillcontinuetogrowinWalls,butdeclinessharplyinBridgesGlobalgasdemandThousandBcm54321InWalls,gasdemandpeaksin2039

andisaround10%higherthantoday’s

level

in2050?InBridges,gasdemandpeaksin2025andfallstoaroundathirdoftoday’s

level

in2050?020102020203020402050WallsBridgesHistorySource:

IEA

(history),

Equinor

(projections)EnergyconsumptionshiftstowardselectricityElectricityshareoftotal

?nalenergyconsumption%InWalls,electri?cationacceleratessteadilytowards2050,

increasingitsshareby

half?50403020100InBridges,

amassiveaccelerationhappensbefore2030?

By

2050,

theshareexceeds50%,twoandahalftimesaslarge?20102020Walls2030Bridges20402050HistorySource:

IEA

(history),

Equinor

(projections)Windandsolarphotovoltaics(PV)capacityshowsigni?cantgrowthcomparedto2020levelsWindandsolarPVcapacityThousand

GW20202030205016128InWalls,windcapacityis?ve

timesgreater,

andsolarPVcapacityninetimesgreaterin2050comparedwithtoday?InBridges,windcapacityiseighttimesgreater,

andsolarPVcapacity13timesgreaterin2050comparedwithtoday?40Walls

BridgesWalls

BridgesSource:

IEA

(history),

Equinor

(projections)SolarPVWindEnergyPerspectives2023

|

9Electri?cationandhydrogen,includingitsderivativeswillcontributetothedecarbonisationoftransportTransport

fuelmixGtoe4321202020302050Inbothscenarios,electricvehiclesreplaceinternalcombustionenginesinroad

transportbutto

adi?erentextent?InBridges,furtherdecarbonisationisachievedbyincreasingtheuseofhydrogen,includingitsderivativesinmarineandairtransport?0Walls

BridgesWalls

BridgesElectricitySource:

IEA

(history)

Equinor

(projections)OilGasBiomassHydrogenCarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS)willplayanessentialroleinthedecarbonisationofthepowerandindustrysectorsCarboncaptured

andstored

annuallyGtCO?7654321202020302050InWalls,CCUSonbothcoalandgasstartstoaccelerateafter2030?InBridges,thereismassivegrowthinCCUSevenbefore

2030,

andafter2030thereisextensivecontributionsfrom

carbonremoval

technologiesandpractices?0Walls

BridgesWalls

BridgesSource:

IEA

(history)

Equinor

(projections)CoalOilGasNBS*DAC*BECCS*CCUSCarbonremoval*

Nature-based

solutions

(NBS),

Bioenergy

with

carbon

captureand

storage(BECCS),Direct

air

capture(DAC)Currentnetzerocommitmentsarenotenoughtoavoidglobalwarmingabove1.5°CGlobalenergy-relatedCO?

emissions,aftercarbonremovalGtCO?40InWalls,the1?5°Cbudgetisexhaustedby

2033?InBridges,currentcommitmentsare

met,andfurthercommitmentsare

madethatenableemissionstoremainwithinthe1?5°Ccarbonbudgetwiththehelpofcarbonremoval

technologies?3020100Source:

IEA

(history)

Equinor

(projections)2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050WallsBridgesHistory10

|

EnergyPerspectives2023Thedemandformineralsneededtosupporttheenergytransitionissettoincreasesigni?cantlyMineraldemand**Indexed

2016-20

(average

demand)=

14321InWalls,thedemand**formineralsdoublesby

theearly2030scomparedwiththeaverageannualdemandfrom2016

to

2020?InBridges,demandpeaksby

2035andthendropstowards

2040drivenby

mineralintensityimprovementsandaslowdowninnewannualcapacityadditions?**

Mineral

demand

needed

tosupport

annual

capacity

additionsofsolar

PV

and

wind

in

powergeneration02016-20

(avg.)203020402030History2040Source:

EquinorWallsBridgesThemineralvaluechainsarecomplexCO

intensity2Geopolitics,specialisedsupplychains,pricehikes,aswellasenvironmental,socialandgovernanceissuesare

allchallengingfuturesupplyofminerals?Waste

&contaminationGeopoliticsInnovationwillbeanimportantenablerto

securefuturemineralreservesandeasedemandforthoseinshortsupplyorethicallycompromised?HumanrightsInnovationMineralsSpecialisedSustainabilitysupplychainsWaterPriceshortageincreasesSource:

EquinorForsomeminerals,currentproductionlevelsareinsu?icienttomeetfuturedemandSolarPVandwinddemandforselectedmineralsin2040asshareof2022annualproduction120%100%80%60%40%20%0%2022productionlevelInbothWalls

andBridges,increasedmineraldemand**willchallengesupply,

withthefutureannualdemandforcertainmineralsexceedingcurrentproductionlevels?For

futuremineraldemandandsupplyto

balance,productionlevelsmustincreaseorinnovationmustdrivedemanddown?Source:

USGS,

Wang

et

al***,Equinor***

Wang

etal.

(2023)

Futuredemand

forelectricity

generationmaterials

under

di?erentclimate

mitigation

scenarios,

Joule

7,309-332.Elsevier

Inc.CuDy(Wind)

Nd(Wind)

Te

(Solar)

Ag

(Solar)SolarPVandwindOthersectorsDemandexceedingcurrentproductionEnergyPerspectives2023

|

11APPENDIX12

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EnergyPerspectives2023Key

?gures2020-2050growthperyear(%),CAGR20202050UnitsWalls

BridgesWalls

BridgesGlobalGDP2015-USDtrillion2015-USDtrillion2015-USDtrillion2015-USDtrillion81?449?014?817?6158?075?9158?074?72?21?53?03?22?21?43?13?3NorthAmerica,Europe,IndustrialAsiaPaci?cChina36?345?837?046?3Rest

ofWorldGlobalenergyintensity-indexedto

2020Globalpopulation1007?855?49?738?09?7-1?90?7-3?20?7billionGlobalenergydemandGtoeGtoeGtoeGtoeGtoeGtoembdBcm13?773?664?093?2114?811?693?710?150?271?020?990?985?2824?31,1970?2-2?5-0?30?3-1-8?3-4?5-3?81?1CoalOilGas3?541?042?7381?44,256Nuclear0?71?4NewrenewablesOilexcl

biofuelsGas0?3688?93,8667?09?3-0?30?3-4?2-3?8Globalenergy-relatedCO?

emissionsbilliontonnesbilliontonnesbilliontonnesbilliontonnesbilliontonnes31?45?221?22?71?10?20?00?10?1-1?3-2?2-3?8-2?71?2-10?7-10?8-15?9-15?1-8?9NorthAmericaEurope3?41?04?53?0China10?22?1IndiaWorld

CO?

emissionsfrom

fossilfueluseremoved

by

CCUSWorld

CO?

emissionsremoved

from

atmosphereMtMt15085801,96414?4-17?6-4,300Globallightdutyvehicles(LDVs)

?eetmillion1,3751,6141,3680?50?0LDVS

oildemandMtoeMtoeMtoe98765254246291-2?0-1?216?9-11?1-14?018?4LDVs

biofueldemandLDVs

electricitydemand197292EnergyPerspectives2023

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13UnitsDe?nitionsEnergydemandandconsumptionCoalOilBtcembdBcmbilliontonnesofcoalequivalentmillionbarrelsperdaybillioncubicmetreHistory:1990-2020Projection:2021-2050GasPowerRegionsTWhGWterawatt-hourgigawatt(1watt

x10

)9Thereare

12regionsmodelled?Industralised:EuropeanUnion,IndustralisedAsiaPaci?c,NorthAmerica,OtherEurope?EnergyMtmilliontonnes(1tonnex10gigatonnes(1tonnex106)Gt9)Emerging:Africa,China,CIS(CommonwealthofIndependentStates),India,MiddleEast,OtherAmericas,OtherAsiaPaci?c,SoutheastAsiaMtoeGtoemilliontonnesofoilequivalentgigatonnesofoilequivalentCarbonGtC0?

gigatonnesofcarbondioxideSectorsMonetary

USD1USdollarThereare

8sectorsmodelled?Industry,residential,otherstationary,transport,non-energy,power&heat,hydrogen,othertransformation14

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EnergyPerspectives2023AcknowledgementsanddisclaimerAcknowledgementsTheanalyticalbasisforthisoutlookislong-termresearchonmacroeconomicsandenergymarketsundertakenby

theEquinororganisationduringthe?rst

halfof2023?Theresearchprocesshasbeencoordinatedby

Equinor’s

unitforMacroeconomicsandEnergyMarketAnalysis,withcrucialanalyticalinput,supportandcommentsfrom

otherpartsofthecompany?Jointe?ortsandclosecooperationinthecompanyhavebeencriticalforthepreparationofanintegratedandconsistentoutlookfortotalenergydemandandtheprojectionsofthefutureenergymixindi?erentscenarios?We

hereby

extendourgratitudeto

everybodyinvolved?Theeditorialprocessconcludedon8thJune2023?DisclaimerThisreportisprepared

by

avarietyofEquinoranalystpersons,to

presentmatters

fordiscussionandanalysis,notconclusionsordecisions?Findings,views,andconclusionsrepresent?rst

andforemosttheviewsoftheanalystpersonscontributingtothisreportandcannotbeassumedto

re?ect

theo?icialpositionofpolicieso