內(nèi)容金融2 chap3chapter3第三章

第三Chapter第三ChapterFinancialStatementsAnalysisandLong-TermPlanning財務(wù)報表分析和長期計3-KeyConceptsandSkillsKeyConceptsandSkills?KnowhowtostandardizefinancialstatementsforKnowhowtocomputeandinterpretimportantfinancialBeabletodevelopafinancialplanusingthepercentageofsalesapproachUnderstandhowcapitalstructureanddividendpoliciesaffectafirm’sabilitytogrow???3-ChapterChapterOutline章節(jié)內(nèi)FinancialStatementsAnalysisRatioAnalysisTheDuPontIdentity ExternalFinancingandGrowth3-3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis財務(wù)報3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis財務(wù)報表分????3-3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis財務(wù)報表分??????3-3-3-?（Net–?（Net–––EBITDA=EBIT+折舊+攤3-3-3-3.2RatioAnalysis比3.2RatioAnalysis比率分RatiosalsoallowforbettercomparisonthroughtimeorbetweenAswelookateachratio,ask在我們看每一比率時請自問??––Howistheratiocomputed?Whatistheratiotryingtomeasureand這個比率用來度量什么？為什么Whatistheunitofmeasurement度量的單位是什么？Whatdoesthevalueindicate?它的數(shù)值代表著什么？Howcanweimprovethecompany’sratio?我們能夠如何改善公司的比率–––3-?Assetmanagementorturnover????3-Short-termsolvencyorShort-termsolvencyorliquidity?CurrentRatio=CA/流動比率=流動資產(chǎn)/流動負(fù)708/540=1.31QuickRatio=(CA–Inventory)/速動比率=（流動資產(chǎn)-存貨）/流動(708-422)/540=.53CashRatioCashCL現(xiàn)金比率=現(xiàn)金/98/540=.18??3-ComputingLeverageRatiosComputingLeverageRatios?TotalDebtRatio=(TA–TE)/負(fù)債比率=（總資產(chǎn)-總權(quán)益）/總資–(3588-2591)/3588=Debt/Equity=TD/負(fù)債權(quán)益比=總負(fù)債/總權(quán)–(3588–2591)/2591=EquityMultiplier=TA/TE=1+權(quán)益乘數(shù)=總資產(chǎn)/總權(quán)益=1+負(fù)債權(quán)益–1+.385=??3-ComputingCoverageRatiosComputingCoverageRatios計算覆蓋范圍比?TimesInterestEarned=EBIT/利息倍數(shù)=EBIT/利–691/141=4.9CashCoverage=(EBIT+DepreciationAmortization)/現(xiàn)金對利息的保障倍數(shù)（息稅前利潤+折舊和攤銷）/利–(691+276)/141=6.9?3-AssetmanagementorturnoverAssetmanagementorturnover資產(chǎn)管理情況或周轉(zhuǎn)??––––––3-ComputingInventoryComputingInventory?InventoryTurnover=CostofGoodsSold存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率=產(chǎn)品銷售成本/存–1344/422=3.2Days’SalesinInventory=365/Inventory存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)=365/存貨周轉(zhuǎn)–365/3.2=114?3- Ratios計算應(yīng) Ratios計算應(yīng)收賬款比?應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率=銷售額/應(yīng)收賬–2311/188=12.3Days’SalesinReceivables=365/Receivables應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)=365/應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)–365/12.3=30?3-ComputingTotalAssetComputingTotalAssetTurnover計算總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)?TotalAssetTurnover=Sales/Total總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率=銷售額/總資–2311/3588=.64–ItisnotunusualforTAT<1,especiallyifafirmhasalargeamountoffixedassets.?資本密集度=總資產(chǎn)/銷售3-ComputingProfitabilityMeasures?ComputingProfitabilityMeasures?ProfitMargin=NetIncome/銷售利潤率=凈利潤/銷售–363/2311=ReturnonAssets(ROA)=NetIncome/Total資產(chǎn)收益率=凈利潤/總資–363/3588=ReturnonEquity(ROE)=NetIncome/Total權(quán)益收益率=凈利潤/總權(quán)–363/2591=EBITDAMargin=EBITDA/攤銷前利潤率=凈利潤/銷售–967/2311=???3-ComputingMarketValue?MarketCapitalization$88persharexComputingMarketValue?MarketCapitalization$88persharex33millionshares2904million市值=$88每股x3300萬股PERatio=Pricepershare/Earningsper?–88/11=8?Market-to-bookratio=marketvaluepershare/bookvalueper–88/(2591/33)=1.12?EnterpriseValue(EV)=Marketcapitalization+Marketvalueofinterestbearingdebt–cash–2904+(196+457)–98=?EVMultipleEVEBITDA企業(yè)價值乘數(shù)=企業(yè)價值/–3465/967=3.63-UsingFinancialStatements?RatiosUsingFinancialStatements?Ratiosarenotveryhelpfulbythemselves:theytobecomparedtoTime-TrendAnalysis–Usedtoseehowthefirm’sperformanceischangingPeerGroupAnalysis組別分??–ComparetosimilarcompaniesorwithinSICandNAICScodesSIC和NAICS–3-3.3TheDuPontIdentity3.3TheDuPontIdentity??ROENITE權(quán)益收益率=凈利潤/總權(quán)ROE=(NI/TE)(TA/ROE=(NI/TA)(TA/TE)=ROA*?–ROE=(NI/TA)(TA/TE)(Sales/ROE=(NI/Sales)(Sales/TA)(TA/TE)ROE=PM*TAT*權(quán)益收益率=銷售利潤率*總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率*––3-3.3TheDu3.3TheDuPontIdentity?杜邦恒等式說明，ROE受三個方面影響1.經(jīng)營的效率（以銷售利潤率度量2.資產(chǎn)運(yùn)用的效率（以總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率度量3.財務(wù)杠桿（以權(quán)益乘數(shù)度量可以從以上三個方面分解兩個不同ROE的差??3- ROE=PM*TAT*權(quán)益收益率=銷售利潤率*總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率*–Profitmarginisameasureofthefirm’soperatingefficiencyhowwellitcontrolsTotalassetturnoverisameasureofthefirm’sassetuseefficiency–howwellitmanagesitsassets.Equitymultiplierisameasureofthefirm’sfinancial權(quán)益乘數(shù)是公司財務(wù)杠桿的測量––3-?ROA?ROA=10.1%andEM=資產(chǎn)收益率及–ROE=10.1%*1.385=權(quán)益收益率=10.1*1.385PM=15.7%andTAT=?銷售利潤率15.7%總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率=–ROE=15.7%*0.64*1.385=權(quán)益收益率15.7*0.64*1.3853-DuDuPontIdentity3-PotentialProblems財務(wù)報表PotentialProblems財務(wù)報表分析潛在問?Thereisnounderlyingtheory,sothereisnowaytoknowratiosaremostBenchmarkingisdifficultfordiversifiedfirms.Globalizationandinternationalcompetitionmakescomparisonmoredifficultbecauseofdifferencesinaccountingregulations.由于會計制度的不同，全球化國際性的競爭使得比較更加困難Firmsusevaryingaccounting不同的企業(yè)采用不同的會計處理方法?????3-3.4FinancialModels3.4FinancialModels財務(wù)模長期財務(wù)計劃是財務(wù)報表分析的又一個要用??可以根據(jù)財務(wù)計劃模型可以生成預(yù)估的務(wù)報3-一個簡單的財務(wù)模??一個簡單的財務(wù)模??例：Computerfield公司最近一年的財務(wù)報表如1000美800美200美銷售收資產(chǎn)500美250美250美500美負(fù)總總額500美3-一個簡單一個簡單的財務(wù)模?公司的銷售利潤率是20％，從未分配過股利，Computerfield公司的財務(wù)3-一個簡單的財務(wù)模?一個簡單的財務(wù)模?1200600美—600美300美300美600美3-一個簡單的財務(wù)模一個簡單的財務(wù)模???3-Ingredients財務(wù)計劃成Ingredients財務(wù)計劃成?SalesForecast–manycashflowsdependdirectlyontheofsales(oftenestimatesalesgrowthProFormaStatements–settinguptheplanasprojected(proforma)financialstatementsallowsforconsistencyandeaseofAssetRequirements–theadditionalassetsthatwillberequiredtomeetsalesprojections??3-PlanningIngredients財務(wù)計劃PlanningIngredients財務(wù)計劃成?FinancialRequirements–theamountofneededtopayfortherequired財務(wù)需求—支付所需資產(chǎn)的財務(wù)數(shù)量需PlugVariable–determinedbymanagementdecisionsaboutwhattypeoffinancingwillbeused(makesthebalancesheetbalance)EconomicAssumptions–explicitassumptionsaboutthecomingeconomicenvironment經(jīng)濟(jì)假設(shè)—對未來經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的清晰假??3-?Someitemsvarydirectlywithsales,othersdoIncomeStatement?–Costsmayvarydirectlywithsales-ifthisisthecase,thentheprofitmarginisconstantDepreciationandinterestexpensemaynotvarydirectlywithsales–ifthisisthecase,thentheprofitmarginisnotconstantDividendsareamanagementdecisionandgenerallydonotvarydirectlywithsales–thisaffectsadditionstoretainedearnings––3-PercentofSalesApproach?BalancePercentofSalesApproach?BalanceSheet Initiallyassumeallassets,includingfixed,varydirectlywith–AccountspayablealsonormallyvarydirectlywithNotespayable,long-termdebt,andequitygenerallydonotvarywithsalesbecausetheydependonmanagementdecisionsaboutcapitalstructure.Thechangeintheretainedearningsportionofequitywillcomefromthedividenddecision.權(quán)益中的留存收益的改變源自股利決策。––?ExternalFinancingNeeded(EFN Thedifferencebetweentheforecastedincreaseinassetsandtheforecastedincreaseinliabilitiesandequity.3-Rosengarten公司計劃未來銷售額增長當(dāng)前利潤表和預(yù)測利潤3-Rosengarten公司計劃未來銷售額增長當(dāng)前的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債3-Rosengarten公司計劃未Rosengarten公司計劃未來銷售額增長從預(yù)測利潤表到預(yù)測資產(chǎn)負(fù)債 （retentionrate）=1股利支付率 =7501853-PercentofSalesandEFN?PercentofSalesandEFN?ExternalFinancingNeeded(EFN)canalsobecalculatedas:外部融資需求也可采用如下計算：?AssetsSalesSponLiabΔSales(PMProjectedSales)(1d(3250)(0.3250)(0.1312503-Rosengarten公司計劃未來銷售額增長預(yù)測的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債3-Rosengarten公司需Rosengarten公司需要565美元的新融?可以通過增加$225短期借款、$340長期借款融3-3.5ExternalFinancing3.5ExternalFinancingandGrowth外部融資和增?Asthegrowthrateincreases,theinternalfinancingwillnotbeenough,andthefirmwillhavetogotothecapitalmarketsforExaminingtherelationshipbetweengrowthandexternalfinancingrequiredisausefultoolinfinancialplanning.??3-例子例子：HoffmanCo.預(yù)計銷售額增長假設(shè)流動負(fù)債不發(fā)生變3-例子例子：HoffmanCo.預(yù)計銷售額增長3-表3－17Hoffman公司的增長率與預(yù)計假設(shè)資金缺口由增加負(fù)債來完表3－17Hoffman公司的增長率與預(yù)計假設(shè)資金缺口由增加負(fù)債來完EFN（美元00權(quán)53-表3表3－17Hoffman公司的增長率與預(yù)計3-3.523.523-?Theinternal?Theinternalgrowthratetellsushowmuchthefirmgrowassetsusingretainedearningsastheonlysourceoffinancing.UsingtheinformationfromtheHoffman?–ROA=66/500=資產(chǎn)收益率66500b=44/66=利潤再投資額44/66ROA1-ROA.132InternalGrowthRate–1.1323-內(nèi)部增長率的內(nèi)部增長率的推?又Projectedsales=sales×(1+IGR),PM=NI/salesNI=留存收3-GrowthRate可持續(xù)增長?ThesustainableGrowthRate可持續(xù)增長?Thesustainablegrowthratetellsushowmuchthefirmgrowbyusinginternallygeneratedfundsandissuingdebttomaintainaconstantdebtratio.?ROE1-ROE.264–ROE=66/250=權(quán)益收益率66250b=利潤再投資額44/66–1.2643-可持續(xù)增長率可持續(xù)增長率的推?根據(jù)可持續(xù)增長率，EFN=0，又Projected×(1+SGR),PM=NI/salesNI=留存收益增加額+3-3-3-DeterminantsofGrowth增長DeterminantsofGrowth增長的決定因?Profitmargin–operating銷售利潤率—營業(yè)效Totalassetturnover–assetuse總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率—資產(chǎn)使用效Financialleverage–choiceofoptimaldebt財務(wù)杠桿—最優(yōu)負(fù)債比率的選Dividendpolicy–choiceofhowmuchtopaytoshareholdersversusreinvestinginthefirm???3-3.6SomeCaveats一3.6SomeCaveats一些說?FinancialplanningmodelsdonotindicatewhichpolicesaretheModelsaresimplificationsofreality,andtheworldcanchangeinunexpectedways.Withoutsomesortofplanthefirmmayfinditselfadriftinaseaofchangewithoutarudderforguidance.??3-QuickQuiz小測QuickQuiz小測Howdoyoustandardizebalancesheetsandincome如何標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和利潤表?Whatarethemajorcategoriesoffinancial財務(wù)比率的主要種類有哪些Howdoyoucomputetheratioswithineach你如何計算每一種類內(nèi)的比率Whataresomeoftheproblemsassociatedwithfinancialstatementa