j美股能源行業(yè)mlps企業(yè)順風(fēng)支撐下半年上行趨勢(shì)

NorthAmericaEquity27AugustGathering&ProcessingFirmTailwindsUnderpinRobust2HRamp;EagerlyAwaitIDREliminationstoBringFocustoHealthyDrivenbystellarresultsfromrapidvolumegrowthandstrongexecution,NatGasG&PMLPsoutperformedtheAMZIhandilyyeartodateby+15%.Aslargelyexpected,multipleG&Psrevised2018outlookshigher,keepingpacewithacceleratedproduceractivityandincreasedlogisticsneeds.WithE&Pcapexnotbackingdown,weexpectfundamentaltailwindstopropelcontinuedstrongperformance,especiallyforproducersponsoredG&Pswithcompletiontailwinds.Whilesomeheadwinds,suchasPermianbottlenecksandregulatoryheadwindsinColorado,haveweighedoncertainnames,weseetheseconcernsastransitoryandpresentingattractivebuyingopportunities.Assuch,wecontinuetoseeafavorablepropositionforthegroupasawholegivenupsideleveragetorampingproduceractivitybenefitingfromenhancedcompletiontechniquesandmorepreciselateralplacements.However,wenotesignificantlydifferentrisk-rewardprofilesacrosstheG&Pgroup,offeringawideselectionforvariedinvestorEnergyJeremyNorthAmericaEquity27AugustGathering&ProcessingFirmTailwindsUnderpinRobust2HRamp;EagerlyAwaitIDREliminationstoBringFocustoHealthyDrivenbystellarresultsfromrapidvolumegrowthandstrongexecution,NatGasG&PMLPsoutperformedtheAMZIhandilyyeartodateby+15%.Aslargelyexpected,multipleG&Psrevised2018outlookshigher,keepingpacewithacceleratedproduceractivityandincreasedlogisticsneeds.WithE&Pcapexnotbackingdown,weexpectfundamentaltailwindstopropelcontinuedstrongperformance,especiallyforproducersponsoredG&Pswithcompletiontailwinds.Whilesomeheadwinds,suchasPermianbottlenecksandregulatoryheadwindsinColorado,haveweighedoncertainnames,weseetheseconcernsastransitoryandpresentingattractivebuyingopportunities.Assuch,wecontinuetoseeafavorablepropositionforthegroupasawholegivenupsideleveragetorampingproduceractivitybenefitingfromenhancedcompletiontechniquesandmorepreciselateralplacements.However,wenotesignificantlydifferentrisk-rewardprofilesacrosstheG&Pgroup,offeringawideselectionforvariedinvestorEnergyJeremyTonet,CFABloombergJPMATONETRahulCharlieWWilliamPKawas,UnderperformancecreatescompellingentrypointforWESandNBLX,2H18rampinprogress.WithrecentweaknessduetoColoradoinitiativeheadlines,andatemporaryactivityshiftfromtheDeltotheDJforNBLX,weseeanattractiveentrypointforthesetwopremiumMLPs.Withhighlysupportive,top-tierproducersponsorsandrobustthird-partyactivityacrossrespectivefootprints,wecontinuetogaincomfortinastrong2H18volumerampaskeyinfrastructureprojectscomeintoservice.Further,witheachsponsorleveragingequitybarrelsintoownershipinterestsincriticalenergyinfrastructurefortheMLPs,wecontinuetoseeanattractiverisk-rewardpropositionforWESandNBLXversusotherpeers. AnteroMidstreamPartners8AnteroMidstreamGPLP(AMGP)CNXMidstreamPartners(CNXM)CrestwoodEquityPartners(CEQP)EnLinkMidstreamPartners(ENLK)EnLinkMidstreamLLC(ENLC)HessMidstreamPartners(HESM)NobleMidstreamPartners(NBLX)OasisMidstreamPartners(OMP)WesternGasPartners(WES)WesternGasEquityPartners(WGP)OMP:MovingtoNonrecentoutperformance.WithaYTDtotalof42%,OMPhasoutperformedtheAMZIby~31%.Followingtherecentoutperformance,wemovetoaNeutralratingasweseemoreattractiveopportunitieselsewhereacrossourcoverage.WithourincreasedPT,OMP’s~19%totalreturnpotentialscreenstowardthemiddleofthepeerset.Whilewehaveexpressedafavorableviewonproducer-sponsoredMLPssinceourOMPlaunchatOWlastOctober,wenotethatOASdiffersfrompeersgiventhehigherleverage,shortercoreinventory,andlackofMVCsforOMP.WhilewelookfavorablyuponOMP’ssizeablegrowthpotential,wenoteourE&PteamestimatesOASBakkenyearsofdrillinginventorystandsatEquityRatingsandPrice($mn) Price AnteroMidstreamPartnersAMPriceAnteroMidstreamGPLPCNXMidstreamPartnersLPCrestwoodEquityPartnersLPEnLinkMidstreamPartners,LPEnLinkMidstream,LLCHessMidstreamPartners,LPNobleMidstreamPartnersLPOasisMidstreamPartnersLPWesternGasPartnersLPWesternGasEquityPartnersLPENLKUSENLCUSNBLXUSOMPUSWESUSWGPUSSource:Companydata,Bloomberg,J.P.Morganestimates.n/c=nochange.Allpricesasof24AugSeepage57foranalystcertificationandimportantJ.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.每日每日免費(fèi)獲取報(bào)（增值服務(wù)關(guān)注公回復(fù)：研究報(bào)加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”微信群(1-212)622-491527August13,versusHESat31years.Moreover,APCandNBL’scombinedDelawareandDJinventorystandsdecadeslonger.1H18rigadditionmomentumdropsaheadofpotentialcompletiontailwinds.AfterthefocusshiftedtowardsDUCcompletionsin2H17,operatorsadded97rigsin1H18,withthePermianleadingthepack.AsWTIpricescontinuetohold>$60/bbl,produceractivityintheEagleFordandBakkenremainssolid.Onthegasside,therigcountpulledbackintheMarcellusandHaynesvilleduring2Q/3Q,whiletheUticaaddedonerig.JPM’srecentE&PBudgetTackerhighlightstheconcernsbehindincreasingcapexthathasnotalwaysbeenaccompaniedbyhighervolumeguidance,as2018producercapexbudgetsareexpectedtogrow~15%YoY,from+8%YoYpreviously,withproductiongrowthguidancelargelyunchangedat~12%YoY.However,wenotethattheproductioncyclenowtakeslongerwithpaddrillingandcouldforeshadowstrongergrowthin2019,buildingontheYE18exit-rategrowthof+16%YoY.Forthebalanceof2018,withstrongactivitylevelsYTD,weexpectpipelinevolumestobenefitfrom2H18completionTable1:RigCountAdds/DropsAcrossSelectFigure1:DUCInventoryAcrossSelect2Q18Eagle228(1-212)622-491527August13,versusHESat31years.Moreover,APCandNBL’scombinedDelawareandDJinventorystandsdecadeslonger.1H18rigadditionmomentumdropsaheadofpotentialcompletiontailwinds.AfterthefocusshiftedtowardsDUCcompletionsin2H17,operatorsadded97rigsin1H18,withthePermianleadingthepack.AsWTIpricescontinuetohold>$60/bbl,produceractivityintheEagleFordandBakkenremainssolid.Onthegasside,therigcountpulledbackintheMarcellusandHaynesvilleduring2Q/3Q,whiletheUticaaddedonerig.JPM’srecentE&PBudgetTackerhighlightstheconcernsbehindincreasingcapexthathasnotalwaysbeenaccompaniedbyhighervolumeguidance,as2018producercapexbudgetsareexpectedtogrow~15%YoY,from+8%YoYpreviously,withproductiongrowthguidancelargelyunchangedat~12%YoY.However,wenotethattheproductioncyclenowtakeslongerwithpaddrillingandcouldforeshadowstrongergrowthin2019,buildingontheYE18exit-rategrowthof+16%YoY.Forthebalanceof2018,withstrongactivitylevelsYTD,weexpectpipelinevolumestobenefitfrom2H18completionTable1:RigCountAdds/DropsAcrossSelectFigure1:DUCInventoryAcrossSelect2Q18Eagle22862190429Source:BakerHughesRigStructuralinyetbutcloserthanweTable2:GPShareofTotalyesterday.WehavebeenvocalproponentsofIDRelimination,andmanagementteamscontinuetoacknowledgethefinitelife-cycleofIDRsduringrecentcalls.WhereaMLPpossessesapubliclytradedGP,webelieveaGPbuy-inoftheLPtobetheoptimaltransactiongiventherelativelyhigherpro-formaentitycoverage,leadingastrongerB/S.WereiteratedtheseconclusionsinourrecentWesternGasdeep-dive.WebelievethatETE/ETP'srecentmergerannouncementwillprovetobeakeycatalysttounlockvalueovertimeandwillpressureIDRhold-outstosimplify.NotingintheAR2QcallthatthespecialcommitteesofAR,AMGPandAMhaveafocuson“simplification”,Anteroexpectstoprovideanupdateonthebeforetheendof3Q18.WeseeAMGPacquiringAMasthebestcasescenario.Withthemidstreamboardformationgainingmomentum,IDReliminationtakesthespotlightforEQMperthenewCEO’srecentcomments.Again,weseeEQGPacquiringEQMastheonlypalatablepathgoingforward.EnLinkcontinuestoworktowardsacomprehensivesolutionforthecurrentstructurealongsideitsnewpartnerGIPandcouldpotentiallyreachaconclusionbyYE18.Source:PartnershipreportsandJ.P.MorganIDRburdensneaksupfastforyounghighgrowthMLPs;clearneedtogetaheadtoavoidthepitfallsofpeers.Whilelowinthesplitsnow,weseebothCNXM’sandNBLX'sIDRtakequicklyconvergingtowards~30%by2020-21(Table2).Withaplaybookinmind,youngerMLPsshouldtakeproactivemeasures2GPShareofTotalDistributionfromGP&IDR2018E2019EAnteroMidstreamPartners CNXMidstreamPartners CrestwoodEquityPartners EnLinkMidstreamPartners, EQTMidstreamPartners, HessMidstreamPartners, NobleMidstreamPartners, OasisMidstreamPartners WesternGasPartners Haynesv (1-212)622-491527AugusttoachievethebestIDRsimplificationresultsbeforetheoverhangbeginstoimpedegrowth,driveawayinvestors,andnegativelyimpactvaluations,inourview.RelevantBasinAsmultipleproducersshifttodevelopmentmodeandthecurrentcommoditypriceenvironmentappearsstrongerthanlastyear,wecontinueseevisibilitytoback-halfvolumetrictailwinds,supportingthemidstreamgrowthtrajectory.Permian:Giventheprolongedwidedifferentialsandlimitedalternativestomitigatetheconstrainedpipelinecapacityacrossbothcrudeoilandresiduegas,producersremainfocused(1-212)622-491527AugusttoachievethebestIDRsimplificationresultsbeforetheoverhangbeginstoimpedegrowth,driveawayinvestors,andnegativelyimpactvaluations,inourview.RelevantBasinAsmultipleproducersshifttodevelopmentmodeandthecurrentcommoditypriceenvironmentappearsstrongerthanlastyear,wecontinueseevisibilitytoback-halfvolumetrictailwinds,supportingthemidstreamgrowthtrajectory.Permian:Giventheprolongedwidedifferentialsandlimitedalternativestomitigatetheconstrainedpipelinecapacityacrossbothcrudeoilandresiduegas,producersremainfocusedonsecuringFTandflowassurancesfrommidstreamoperators.NBLplanstotemporarilyreducecompletionactivityintheDelawaretoalignbetterwithpipelineexpansionsandoptimizearoundthenewCGFs(i.e.,Blanco)recentlycompletedbyNBLX.ThiscontributedtoNBLX’sslightlymoderatedoutlookfor2H18.DVNfollowedsuit,pushingbackoncompletiontimingwithasofter3Qguide.Separately,ENLK’sAvengergatheringsystemsupportingDelawareproductionisexpectedtostartservicein1Q19.APC'sROTFsinReevesandLovingstartedoperationsinmid-2018,de-riskingDelawareproduction.WESremainsontrackforastrong2H18rampwithMentoneI/IIcomingonline.WES'resultsstartedbenefittingfromtheMidland-SealyequityinterestcontributionsinJune.Lastly,MTDR’sstrongperformanceandoutlookshouldhelpfillENLK’sLoboIII(YE18).DJ/Rockies:AbsorbingmuchofthecapitalshiftawayfromtheDelaware,activityintheDJcontinuestoremainrobustdespitetheColoradoinitiative.WhileDCP’sMewbourn3providedmuchneededrelief,producersawaitthestartupof~1.2bcf/dofprocessingcapacitybyYE19,includingWES’LathamandDCP’sO'Connor2plants.Moreover,theFrontRangeandTexasExpressexpansionsaswellasSEMG’sWhiteCliffsconversionprovidesclearvisibilitytoanimprovingNGLtakeawayenvironment.Finally,NBLXcontinuestorampitsactivityintheGreenRiver(PDCE)andLaramieRiver(SRCI)DevCos,withthebulkofcapexspendallocatedtotheareas.Table3:DJProcessingCapacityIn-CapacityLatham200/Source:CompanyBakken:HEScontinuedtoplanintheBakken,addingitsfifthriginthebasin,andcontinuestoexpectitssixthrigin4Q18.HESMdeliveredabeatandraiselargelybenefitingfromsolidthirdpartycontributionsduringthequarter,similartoBeartoothwatervolumesdrivingOMP's2Q18beat.OMPcontinuestoseevolumegrowthacrossitsDevCossupportedbyGasPlantIIcomingonlinein4Q18andstrongproductionrevisionsatOAS(includesPermianvolumes).CEQPreaffirmeditsBakkengrowthprospectswiththeArrowsystemdeliveringresultsasexpected.CLRnotedstrongproductivitygainsfromitsenhancedcompletionprogramandcontinuestotracktowardsthetop-endofitsproductionandexit-rateguideduetotimingoflargepadcompletions.Lastly,the~400mmcf/dofprocessingcapacityfromHESM’sLM4andOMP’sGasPlantIIcomingintoserviceby4Q18shouldmitigatesomeimpactofthetighterflaringrestrictionsstartinglaterthisyear.STACK/SCOOP:DVNnotedasolidoperationsupdateintheSTACK,thoughShowboat’sresultsunderwhelmedinitialexpectations.ENLK’sThunderbirdIplantremainsontrackfor1Q19in-service,whichwillconnecttotheCentralOKsuper-system.Additionally,ENLKannouncedtheRedbudgatheringsystemfor2H18in-servicetocaterMRO’sgrowingSTACKproductionafterplacingBlackCoyoteintoserviceduring1Q18toserviceDVN'sproduction.ENBLcontinuestobenefitfrom3Plant 1,000(~750+~250Ft. DiscoveryLate 200/O'Connor2(Plant11) Late 200+100(1-212)(1-212)622-491527AugustSTACK/SCOOPfueledgrowth,with28rigscurrentlyoperatingonitsdedicatedacreage,splitequallyacrosstheSCOOPandtheSTACK.Appalachia(Marcellus/Utica):EQTmoderatedits2H18productionguidanceandexpectstorun8-10rigsintheMarcellusandUticawith6-10fraccrews.The~2bcf/dMVPprojectisnowexpectedtostartservicein4Q19versus1Q19previously.WithRoverandAtlanticSunrisereachingfullservicethisquarter,totalnewcapacitybroughtintoservicestands>2.5bcf/dthisyear,contributingtotighterbasisdifferentialsversusprioryears.AR'scommentaryaroundproductioncurtailmentsuntil4Q18,duetocrudeoiltruckingconstraints,andtheClearwaterfacilitystartupdelayleadAMtopointtowardsthebottomhalfofthe2018guide.Ofnote,ARplanstoshiftitsfocustowardstheliquids-richMarcellusin2H18anddoesnotexpecttooperateintheOhioUtica.Finally,CNX’sactivityinSWPAdrovestrongresultsatCNXM,whiletheadditionalminimumactivitycommitmentsfromrecentstreamliningactionscontinuetodriveastronggrowthoutlook.Additionally,CNXaddedafourthrigintheCPA(deepUtica)towardstheendof2Q18,whichshouldcontributetoCNXM’sresultsin2019.Activitypicksupacrossotherbasinsonstrongcommoditybackdrop.ActivityintheEagleFordhasbeenincreasingwithmultiplemidstreamoperatorsnotinganimprovingoutlook,furtherevidencedbyasolidrigcountstep-up.IntheresurgingPRB,CHK’srecentupdateofpotentiallymorethandoublingitsproductionYoYin2019providesastrongpositiveread-throughforCEQP’soutlookthatresultedintheFIDoftheJackalopesystemexpansion.Earningsreview:Solid2Qresultshighlightstoutproduceractivity.Exceptforacoupleofmisses(CNXM,NBLX),thegrouplargelybeatexpectationswithstrongthroughputacrosstheboard.Robustproduceractivitycoupledwithstrongexecutionledtosolidresults,whilemultipleproducersreaffirmedthestrong2Hvolumerampexpectations.Capturingthird-partybusinessesremainedakeyfocusformanyinthegroup,withHESM,OMPandNBLXcitingnotablethird-partysuccesses.4(1-212)622-491527AugustTable4:2Q18EarningsSource:Bloomberg,Partnershipreports,J.P.Morgan52Q18ActualAdj.2Q18StreetMedian2Q18JPMeAdj.(1-212)622-491527AugustTable4:2Q18EarningsSource:Bloomberg,Partnershipreports,J.P.Morgan52Q18ActualAdj.2Q18StreetMedian2Q18JPMeAdj.2Q18Resultsvs DriversofBeat/MissvsJPMeEBITDA($mm)Adj.EBITDA($mm)EBITDA($mm)StreetMedianEarningsReview/ AnteroMidstreamPartners StrongWaterHandlingresultduetotiming,with wellsservicedinthequarter,offsetbysofter(2% (1% FWDtodeclinein2H18;2018EBITDAtotrackbottom-halfofguidanceduetodelayedstartupofClearwaterfacility&temporarycurtailmentsatAR.SpecialcommitteeresolutionexpectedbyCEQPCrestwoodEquityPartnersN StrongerS&Tresults(Stagecoach/COLT)and(7% (6% corpexpensesmorethanoffsetsofterG&PAnnouncedDelaware/PRBinfrastructureupdates.Liftedgrowthcapexandbottom-endof2018EBITDAguidance.Lookforwardtoupdatesonwater/processing(Delaware)andcrude(PRB).CNXMCNXMidstreamPartners Strongergasthroughputthan(- (8%Reaffirmed2018EBITDAguidance,couldproveconservative.Growthcapexsteppeduptoby~$20mmduetoacceleratingactivity.ENLKEnLinkMidstreamPartners Strongresultsacrosstheboard,mostnotablyfrom(4% (8% andTXAnnouncedAvengercrudegathering(DelawareforDVN).Lifted2018EBITDAandcapexguidance,expectcoveragetotrack>1.1x.2019EBITDA+5-10%vs'18HESMHessMidstreamPartners Solidgatheringandprocessingvolumes(3% (3% JPMe;higherthirdpartyThroughputcontinuestorampacrossassetsandthird-partyvolumescontinuetogrownicely.HESMliftedits2018EBITDA,DCF&capexguidance.HESrunsfiverigs,sixthexpectedin4Q18.NBLXNobleMidstreamPartners Lowerthanexpectedunitmarginsonactivitymix(- (- acrossTop-endof2018NetEBITDAlowered,FWDvolumesrevisedhigher;newcommercialagreements(incl.3-yrFWDMVC)announcedandsecuredEPICNGLpipeequityoption(15%).OMPOasisMidstreamPartnersN StrongBeartoothwatervolumesdrivenbyfrom partycontributions,supplementedbycrude(8% (8% volumesat2018/19EBITDAandcoverageguidancerevisedhigheronimprovedOASoutlook;GasPlantIIontrackwiththird-partyagreements.Dropdownsstartassoonaslate2018/early2019. WesternGasPartners In- (0% (0%StrongthroughputperformancewithROTFsstartupandMidland-Sealycontributions;MentoneI/IIontrackfor2H18,Wellpositionedforstrong2H18 (1-212)622-4915NorthAmericaEquityGuidanceupdate:Positiverevisionsafterasolid1H18performance.CEQP,ENLK,HESMandOMPraisedtheEBITDAoutlookswith(1-212)622-4915NorthAmericaEquityGuidanceupdate:Positiverevisionsafterasolid1H18performance.CEQP,ENLK,HESMandOMPraisedtheEBITDAoutlookswiththeresults.CEQPandENLKrevisedcapexhigheronthebackofnewprojectadditionswhileCNXMfollowedsuitonacceleratedmidstreamdevelopment.AMandNBLXmoderatedoutlooksfollowingnear-termproductionheadwindsattheirrespectivesponsors.Table5:LatestGuidance2018/+Source:PartnershipBalancesheet:Mutedcapitalmarketsactivitysincelastupdate.Withminimaladditionstogrowthbacklogsandmodest2018capexrevisionsduringthequarter,capitalmarketactivityremainedfairlysubdued.WeexpectminimalequityissuanceduringtheremainderoftheyearabsentM&A,whileENLKandAMcouldutilizetheexistingATMfacilitiesopportunistically.Table6:BalanceSheetSource:Partnershipreports,6Liquidity$1,500revovler;~$157mmavailableunderATM,opportunisticusethroughWithmostrestrictivecovenants;CMLPfacilityconditionallyallows$600mmrevolver;$494mmavailableafter$1,500mmrevolver;~$565mmavailableunderATM$300mmrevolv$800mmrevolver($270mmavailable)+accordion$200mmrevolver($35mmavailable);facilityhas$1,500mmrevolv2018:Adj.EBITDA$705-$755mm;expecttotrackclosertobottom-halfofguidanceCurrent?2018-2020:28-30%distibutiongrowth;1.25xcoverage;2021-2022:20%distibutiongrowth;>1.1xcov2018-2022:$2.7bnorganicgrowthcapex;2.0-2.5xlev ?2018:Adj.EBITDA$705-$755mm;DCF$575-$625mm;28-30%distributiongrowth;1.25-1.35xcovCurrent?2018EBITDA:$400-$420mm;growthcapex$300-$350mm;leverage4.0-4.5x;coverage>1.2x;3-yrDCF/unitCAGR>15% ?2018:Adj.EBITDA$390-$420mm;DCF$195-$225mm;growthcapex$250-$300mm;leverage4.0-4.5x;coverage>1.2xCurrent?2018:Adj.NetEBITDA/DCF:unchanged;capex:$100-2018-2023:15%distributionCAGR;LTEBITDA/DCF ?2018:NetAdj.EBITDA:$150-$165mm;DCF$120-$135mm;capex$80-2018-2023:15%distributionCAGR;Leverage<3x;5-yrgrowthcapex~$965mm;EBITDA~2xfrom2017-Current?2018:$1,000-$1,020mmENLKAdj.EBITDA(+5-10%'19);DCF$680-$710mm;1.1-1.15xcoverage;4.00-3.85x2018growthcapex(incl.ENLCTO/JV):$725- ?2018:$950-$1,020mmENLKAdj.EBITDA(+5-10%'19);DCF$630-$680mm;1.0-1.1xcoverage;4.20-3.70xlev2018growthcapex(incl.ENLCTO/JV):$630-Current?2018:ConsolidatedEBITDA$475-$500mm;NettoHESM$93-$98mm;DCF$91-$96mm;$68mmgrowthLongterm15%distributiongrowth;>1.1xcov ?2018:ConsolidatedEBITDA$460-$485mm;NettoHESM$90-$95mm;DCF$87-$92mm;$64mmgrowthCurrent?2018:NetAdj.EBITDA$215-$225mm;DCF$181-$191mm;2.0-2.1xcoverage;2019-2022:3Q18:NetAdj.EBITDA$55-$59mm;DCF$46-$50mm;1.9-2.1xcoverage;$40-$50mmnet ?2018:NetAdj.EBITDA$215-$235mm;DCF$180-$195mm;1.9-2.1xcoverage;20%distributiongrow2019-2022:20%distributiongrowth;>1.3xcoverage;<2.0xlevCurrent?2018:NetAdj.EBITDA$64-68mm;capexunchanged;coverage:1.2-1.3x(3Q18),~1.3x2019:NetAdj.EBITDA$102-$108mm;coverage:~1.4x(entering2019),1.5-1.7x(2Q- ?2018:NetAdj.EBITDA$61-$65mm;coverage>1.2x(4Q18);$72-$90mmnetgrowth2019:NetAdj.EBITDA$94-Current?2018:Adj.EBITDA/Totalcapex:unchanged;$90-$100mmNochangetodistribution/2Hvolumerampandcoverageex ?2018:Adj.EBITDA$1,150-$1,250mm*(excl.newequityinterests);$1.35-$1.45bntotalcapex;$80-$90mm(1-212)622-491527AugustDecember2019PTs:Afterapplyingpartnership-specificadjustments,werollforwardoneyearandestablishDec2019DCF-derivedpricetargetsforeachofthenamesinthereport.Additionally,wemodifiedmaintenancecapexestimatesacrossthegroupsothatmaintenancecapexincreasestowards40-50%ofDDAbytheterminalvalueyear.7(1-212)622-4915NorthAmericaEquitySnapshot:AnteroMidstreamPartnersRating:SummaryAsAR'sdrillingprogramhascontinuedtorampintheMarcellusandUtica,AM'sgatheringvolumes(1-212)622-4915NorthAmericaEquitySnapshot:AnteroMidstreamPartnersRating:SummaryAsAR'sdrillingprogramhascontinuedtorampintheMarcellusandUtica,AM'sgatheringvolumesopportunitiesfromtheMPLXJV,shouldpropelAM'stargeted28-30%growththrough2020.2018Adj.JPMe:$705mmStreetMedian:StreetRange:$705mm-AMreported2Q18adj.EBITDAof$176mm,matchingthe$175mmJPMeandabovethe$172mmStreetmedian.AMrevisedits2018outlooktothebottomhalfofthe$705-$750mmguidancerangeduetodelayedstart-upoftheclearwaterfacilityandsofterproductionoutlookfromARinthenearterm.Finally,mgmtexpectstoprovideanupdatefromthespecialcommitteebeforetheendof2019Adj.Guidance:N/AStreetMedian:StreetRange:$701mm-Webelievethemarketeagerlyhopesforsimplificationfromthethespecialcommiteestructurereview,withanupdateexpectedbeforetheendof3Q18.WebelievethateliminatingtheIDRscouldrepresentapositivedevelopmentfortheAnterofamily.EBITDAP&FJVStonewWeupdateourmodeltoinclude:1)2Q18resultsandfilings,2)updatedE&Pproduction3)updatedthroughputestimatesbasedonrevisedguidancecommentary,4)updatedassumptionsforfreshwaterdistributionandwastewatertreatmentbusinesses,and5)otherrelatedmodelingSource:J.P.MorganestimatesPartnershipGeneralPartner:privatelyownedbyARmgmt(ARowns53%ofGrowthAMexpectstospend$650mmin2018ontotalcapex.AMcurrentlyhas~$4.5bnworthofgrowthcapexbacklogforthenext10yearsBusinessfocus:natgasgathering,compression,waterRecentIn-Geographicfocus(rigs):NEMarcellusrich/dry(5),OhioUticaDFreshwaterdistribution-GAdvancedwastewaterGrowth:organicgrowthtosupportAR's~$1.3bndrillingCurrentCashflowprofile:100%feebased,70-75%MVCsonnewGLowpressuregatheringGHighpressuregatheringGCompressionGFreshwater30-18-15-30-15-Distributionguidance:28-30%through2020;20%for2021->1.25xthrough2020;>1.1xthroughKeyMileageofhigh/lowpressuregatheringFreshWaterDistributionAMMPLXJVProcessing/FracandFWDAdvancewastewaterPotentialDNGLTakeawayMD=dropdown,A=3rdpartyM&A,G=organicgrowthSource:PartnershipreportsandJPMRecent2Q18Results(8/1):2Q18ResultsinLine;EagerlyAwaitingSpecialCommitteeProducerSponsoredG&PMLPs(5/17):ProducerConservatismPositionsGroupforRobust2HRamp;PreferNBLX,8(1-212)622-491527AugustInvestmentThesis,ValuationandAnteroMidstreamPartnersLP(Overweight;PriceTarget:Investment(1-212)622-491527AugustInvestmentThesis,ValuationandAnteroMidstreamPartnersLP(Overweight;PriceTarget:InvestmentOneofthemostactiveAppalachianE&Poperators,AnteroResources(AR)backsAMandintendstorapidlygrowMarcellusandUticaproduction.ARpossessessignificantAppalachianexpertisethatshouldpropelefficientandsuccessfuldevelopmentoftheresourcepotential,especiallygiventhetop-tierreturnsduetohighwellrecoveriesrelativetodrillingandcompletioncosts,furtheraccentuatedduetoenhancedcompletiondesignsandpaddrilling.WithasignificantacreagededicationfromAR,weseeAMaswellpositionedtocapitalizeonARgrowth,especiallyastheorganicopportunitysetappearsdeepwith>3,300economicdrillinglocations.WeexpectstoutthroughputgrowthtosupportadistributionCAGRof28-30%through2020,allwhilemaintainingsolidcoverage.Superiordistributiongrowth,astrongB/S,andsubstantialcoveragedifferentiateAMfrompeers,inourPVofDCF/LPPVofTerminal$$WebaseourDec2019pricetargetonadiscountedcashflowmethodologyinwhichweforecastDCF/LPunitfor10yearsandthencalculateaterminalvalue.Theterminalyieldandrequiredrateofreturnarebasedonleverage/liquidityrisk,distributioncoverageoutlook,volumetric/recontractingrisk,commodity/marketingrisk,take-or-paycontractprofile,drillinginventoryintheterminalyear,andotherDiscountRateTerminalTerminalGrowthAMPriceTargetSource:J.P.MorganRiskstoRatingandPriceRiskstoAMinclude:1)failuretoachievetop-tierdistributiongrowthcouldleadtoarevaluation;2)concentrateddependenceuponAR’sdrillingprogramforgrowth;3)G&PindustryandAppalachiangeographicconcentrationrisk;and4)ifinvestorsperceiveAR’sownershipandpotentialsell-downtobeanoverhang,thenAM’sunitpricecouldbeadverselyimpacted.9DistributableCashFlowDiscountDiscountDCF/LPYoYDCF/LPUnitGrowthTerminalValueofDCF/LPUnitTotalCashFlowsAvaila