電動汽車的采用可能加劇交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施資金短缺（英）-2023-12-新能源

EVAdoptionCouldExacerbate

TransportationInfrastructureFunding

Shortfall

Updated31July2023

IntheUS,taxesongasolineanddieselfuelhavehistoricallybeenthesourceoffederal

revenuefortheHighwayTrustFund(HTF),whichisdesignedtofundmaintenanceand

replacementofroadandtransitinfrastructure.However,theHTFhasbeenchronically

underfundedbecausefederalmotorfueltaxeshavenotbeenraisedsince1993,andthey

arenotindexedtoinflation.Thebroadadoptionofelectricvehicles(EVs)could

exacerbatethefundingshortfalland—additionalresourcesfromtheBipartisan

InfrastructureLawnotwithstanding—createtheneedforanalternativefunding

mechanism,withoutwhichroadandtransitinfrastructurewouldlikelydeteriorateand

potentiallyincreasethecostofmovinggoodsthroughthesupplychain.

TrustedInsightsforWhat'sAhead?

Basedonourprojections,federalfueltaxrevenuescoulddeclinebynearly60

percentifpassengerandtruckelectricvehiclesalesmadeup100percentof

newannualvehiclesalesby2040.Withoutafinancialoffset,suchafundinggap

couldcreatefinancialshortfallsandinsufficientinvestments.Businessesand

householdswouldneedtoanticipatehighercostsofgoodsdeliveriesandlogistics

duetoworseningtransportationinfrastructureconditions.

Businessesmighthavetopreparetopayforalternativefundingmechanisms

suchasfeesbasedonvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)oronelectricityusedfor

1EVAdoptionCouldExacerbateTransportationInfrastructureFundingShortfallConferenceB

charging.Today,revenuefortheHighwayTrustFundiscollectedwhenmotorists

purchasegasolineordiesel.Inamodifiedroadusagechargingsystem,revenue

couldbecollectedbasedonpeakdemandandthespecificimpactsoninfrastructure

duringitsuse.Ashifttowardadifferentrevenuecollectionsystem,whilenotentirely

costlessinitself,couldaffectvariablevehiclecostsbutmightalsoprovideroomfor

efficienciessuchasbetterroutechoicesortime-of-dayplanning.

Datasecuritywouldbeacriticalissueforbusinessesandhouseholds;anew

systemoftelematics—datacollectedfromvehiclesviasensorsorsmart

devicesforpricingandrevenuecollection—wouldbeneededtoimplementa

moredynamicchargingandcostrecoverysystem.Despitelikelyoperational

improvements,systemsoperatorswouldhavetocarefullymanageinformationto

assuagedataprivacyconcerns.Inaddition,datacollectionwoulddependonnew

systeminfrastructureandnotonanalreadyestablishedsystem.

BroadAdoptionofEVsCouldReduceFuelGasTaxRevenues

byMoreThanHalf

TheHighwayTrustFundisthefederalfinancialstructureusedtofundroadandtransit

projectsintheUS.ThemainsourceofrevenuefortheHTFisthetaxcollectedfrom

gasolineanddieselsales.Statesoperatetheirownseparatebutsimilarfunding

mechanisms:theycollectstatetaxrevenuesatthepumpbychargingforgasolineand

dieselpurchases.Asof2023,thefederaltaxratesappliedtogasolineanddieselare18.3

and24.3centspergallon,respectively.1In2022,theHTFreceivedadepositofroughly

$36billionfromfueltaxes.

Historically,theHTFhasbeenunderfunded;thatis,federalexpendituresonconstruction

andmaintenancehaveexceededtheamountgeneratedbyfueltaxesandotherfees.In

2021,thefundinggapamountedtoapproximately$16billionbecausemotorfueltaxes

hadnotbeensufficientlyraisedoradjustedforinflation.Additionally,vehicleshave

becomemorefuelefficient,reducingthequantityofmotorfuelneededpermile.2This

mightbeanongoingtrendthatcouldworseninthefutureduetoevengreatervehicle

efficiencyandelectrificationofmanypassengerandfreightvehicles.Inseveralprior

instances,transfersfromthegeneralfundtotheHTFwereusedtofillfinancialgapsand

makeupthedifferencesbetweenrevenuesandexpenditures.3Nevertheless,theHTF,

evenaftertherecentinclusionofadditionalresourcesfromtheBipartisanInfrastructure

Law,couldagainfaceinsolvencyby2027.4

Electrificationofthetransportationsectorcouldchallengethefundingmechanismofthe

HTF.Ironically,theremightbeadirectconflictbetweenthepolicyoffundinginfrastructure

throughmotorfueltaxesandthatofsubsidizingdriverswhoswitchtoEVs.Withoutthe

purchaseofgasolineordieselfuels,notaxeswillbecollectedfromthoseoperatingthose

vehicles.Infact,ifEVsalesincreasedto100percentofnewpassengervehiclesand

mediumandheavytrucksby2040,depositsintotheHTFmightbepermanentlyreduced

byroughly60percentasaresultoflowerfueltaxreceipts.Atthatpointin2040,electric

carsandtruckswouldconstitutealargershareoftotalvehiclesintheUSthanfossilfuel

2EVAdoptionCouldExacerbateTransportationInfrastructureFundingShortfallConferenceB

vehiclesbasedontheprojectionpresentedinourbriefTheFutureofUSVehicle

ElectrificationandGHGEmissions.

AlternativeFundingMechanismsCouldBeNecessaryto

ContinueInfrastructureFunding

Declineinfueltaxrevenuecouldnecessitatetheredesignofthefundingstructureforthe

HTF.Solvencyinthefundcouldbeachievedinseveralplausibleways,includinghigher

gasolineanddieseltaxes,amileage-basedfeeforsomeorallvehicles,ataxappliedon

5

crudeoilsales,orafeeontheGHGemissionsfromtailpipesofcarsandtrucks.Taxes

onelectricityusedforvehiclechargingorhigherEVregistrationfeeshavealsobeen

proposedasfundingalternatives.6Intheevaluationofthedifferentrevenuecollection

mechanisms,itisimportanttoconsidertheadditionalinfrastructure,andtherefore

investment,neededtooperatethenewmechanism.Establishingacompletelynew

systemwouldinitselfbecostlyandtakeawayfromtherevenuegeneratedforroadand

transitprojects.

Inthecaseofausage-basedcostrecoverysystem,privatehouseholdsandbusinesses

wouldbepayingthedirectcostsofvehicleoperations.Suchusagechargescouldbe

designedtobemoresensitivetoperiodsofhightraffic(“congestionpricing”)orthe

7

varyingcostsofhighwaymaintenance,construction,andreplacement.Through

real-timedatacollection,roadpricescouldbedisplayedatthetimethatvehiclesare

driven,anddriverscouldbeincentivizedtousepublictransportationormakeother

choicesthatlowerthecostofoperatingtheirvehicles(justasinsurancecompaniesoffer

rebatesanddiscountsfordriverswhostaywithinspeedlimits,avoidabruptbreaking

maneuvers,etc.).Roadscouldbepricedbasedondemand,whichcouldmanage

congestionandadversetrafficimpacts.Optimizingthedemandfortransportation

infrastructureinthatwaycouldalsoextendthelifeofroadsorbridgesandconsequently

lowercosts.

Arevisedsystemthatalignsbusinesstransportationcostswiththedistancescoveredby

3EVAdoptionCouldExacerbateTransportationInfrastructureFundingShortfallConferenceB

varioususersandfreightloadstransportedwithinasupplychaincouldprovidegreater

transparencyandalignshippingcostsmorecloselywithtransportationdemands.

Dependingonthecomplexityofthetransportationfeesystem,managersmightbeableto

optimizewhenandhowtheysendoutshipmentsandaltertheiroperationsaccordingly.

DynamicPricingCouldMeanGreaterEfficiencybutAlsoCreate

DataSecurityConcerns

Asstatedabove,dynamicusage-basedroadrevenuecollection(i.e.,costrecoverythatis

sensitivetodemandpatternsandinfrastructuremaintenanceandreplacementneeds)

couldallowforgreaterefficiencyoftheinterstatehighwaysystem.Suchasystemwould

allowforper-milefeestobehigherwhendemandisgreaterorencourageuserstoavoid

roadswheremaintenancecostsaresignificantlyhigherthanonotherroutes.For

example,heavyvehiclesthatimposedisproportionaldamageonroadsurfacescouldbe

incentivizedtochooseroutesinthenetworkthatarebetterabletoaccommodatehigher

vehicleweights.Suchasystembasedonusageandnotgasolineanddieseltaxesmight

beabletofillthefundinggapoftheHTFjustaswellasmerelyraisingmotorfueltaxes

wouldinthecurrentsystem.

Efficientinfrastructurecostcollectionwouldrequiresignificantdatatobecollectedfrom

vehicles,atleasttemporarily.Similartotheglobalpositioningsystem(GPS),the

informationflowmightonlybeonedirectional(i.e.,thecarknowswhereitisonthe

network,butthenetworkdoesnotknowwherethecaris).However,itislikelythatsome

two-directionaldatacollectionoftimeandroutepathswouldberequired.Thesedata

couldallowappropriatecost-recoverymethodologytobeemployed,butthedrivingpublic

andfreightcommunitywouldhavetobeassuredthattheirdataaresafefrom

unauthorizedaccess.Ineffect,anymileage-orusage-basedcostrecoverysystemwould

needtobecarefullymanagedandoperated.8

[1]USEnergyInformationAdministration,HowMuchTaxDoWePayonaGallon