動力電池金屬需求-英

Clean

and

leanBattery

metals

demand

from

electrifying

passenger

transportJuly

2023A

study

byTransport

&

EnvironmentPublished:

July

2023Author:

Alina

RacuModelling:

Alina

Racu,

Luca

PoggiExpert

group:

Julia

Poliscanova

Thomas

Earl

Cecilia

MatteaEditeur

responsable:

William

Todts,

Executive

Director?

2023

European

Federation

for

Transport

and

Environment

AISBLTo

cite

this

reportTransport

&

Environment.

(2023).

Clean

and

lean:

Battery

metals

demand

from

electrifying

passenger

transportFurther

information

Alina

RacuBatteries

&

Metals

Analysis

Manager

Transport

&

Environment

alina.racu@

|

@transenv

|

fb:

Transport

&

EnvironmentAcknowledgementsThe

authors

kindly

acknowledge

the

external

peer

reviews

by

Colin

McKerracher

from

BloombergNEF,

Jean-Philippe

Hermine

from

the

Institute

for

Sustainable

Development

and

International

Relations

(IDDRI)

and

Jean-Baptiste

Crohas

from

World

Wildlife

Fund

France

(WWF

France)

for

their

valuable

feedback.

The

findings

and

views

put

forward

in

this

publication

are

the

sole

responsibility

of

the

authors

listed

above.

The

same

applies

to

any

potential

factual

errors

or

methodological

flaws.A

study

by 2Executive

SummaryEurope,

like

many

other

regions,

is

accelerating

efforts

to

electrify

cars,

buses

and

coaches

in

order

to

decarbonise

passenger

transport

effectively

and

reach

its

climate

goals.

Electrification

at

speed

and

scale

is

essential,

with

all

new

cars,

buses

and

coaches

having

to

be

zero

emission

by

2035

latest.

But

batteries

-

just

like

renewables

and

technologies

relying

on

green

hydrogen

-

will

require

metals

like

lithium

and

nickel

to

produce.

What

are

the

volumes

of

these

metals

that

are

required

to

electrify

European

passenger

transport?

And

how

do

choices

-

be

it

the

size

of

cars,

the

technology

used

or

the

size

of

the

car

fleet

-

impact

demand?

This

report

answers

those

questions.T&E

has

developed

three

scenarios

for

the

demand

of

battery

raw

materials,

notably

lithium,

nickel,

cobalt

and

manganese,

between

today

and

2050.

All

of

the

scenarios

assume

full

electrification

of

passenger

transport

by

2050

and

an

accelerated

uptake

of

battery

electric

vehicles

up

to

then

to

maximise

the

CO2

savings

from

now

on.

The

“Business

as

Usual”

-

BaU

-

scenario

takes

the

currently

expected

industry

trends

on

battery

size

and

chemistry,

as

well

as

the

status

quo

private

car

activity.

The

“Accelerated

Innovation

and

Fewer

Car

Km”

-

or

Accelerated

-

scenario

assumes

a

substantial

shi

to

smaller

batteries,

a

faster

uptake

of

battery

chemistries

with

less

critical

metals

(e.g.

lithium

batteries

without

cobalt

or

nickel

(LFP),

or

sodium-ion

batteries)

and

and

fewer

km

driven

by

private

car.

The

final

“Aggressive

Innovation

and

Fewer

Car

Km”

-

or

Aggressive

-

scenario

takes

these

assumptions

up

another

notch

to

more

radical

changes.Demand

for

battery

metals

grows

in

all

scenarios,

but

can

be

almost

halved

with

innovative

technology

and

car

use

policyThe

demand

for

raw

materials

increases

in

all

the

three

scenarios,

with

annual

volumes

in

2050

estimated

to

be

4

to

10

times

higher

than

today,

and

cumulatively

up

to

200

times

higher

than

the

2022

EV

battery

industry

consumption.

While

this

translates

into

20

Mt

of

lithium,

nickel,

cobalt

and

manganese,

it

is

well

below

the

current

annual

oil

consumption

of

around

170

Mtoe

(expected

to

fall

to

around

20

Mtoe

by

2050).A

study

by 327

TWh

of

batteries

will

be

needed

cumulatively

until

2050

in

BAU,

equivalent

to

2.9

million

tonnes

(Mt)

of

lithium,

10.7

Mt

of

nickel,

0.8

Mt

of

cobalt

and

5.5

Mt

of

manganese.

This

European

demand

represents

up

to

11%

of

the

known

global

reserves

for

lithium

and

nickel,

10%

for

cobalt

and

1%for

manganese.The

Accelerated

scenario

would

require

a

total

of

19

TWh

of

batteries,

or

a

third

less.

This

meansthat

compared

to

the

BaU

scenario,

the

raw

material

requirements

are:- 1.9

Mt

of

lithium,

or

over

a

third

less- 5.4

Mt

of

nickel,

or

around

half- 0.5

Mt

of

cobalt,

or

44%

less- 3.6

Mt

of

manganese,

or

over

a

third

less.The

Aggressive

scenario

would

require

nearly

half

the

amount

of

batteries

cumulatively

by

2050

compared

to

the

BAU

scenario,

resulting

in

an

even

larger

decrease

in

the

demand

of

critical

metals:

57%

less

lithium,

59%

less

nickel,

56%

less

cobalt

and

45%

less

manganese.This

shows

that

the

essential

electrification

of

passenger

transport

will

require

a

growing

supply

of

critical

metals

in

all

scenarios.

While

globally

there

are

enough

reserves

for

the

EU

needs,

the

challenge

is

to

extract

and

process

those

at

speed,

and

above

all

in

a

social

and

environmentally

responsible

manner.

But

not

all

supply

needs

to

come

from

extraction:

a

growing

share

(up

to

15%)

of

the

supply

can

be

met

by

recycled

metals

by

2030

already,

so

industrial

support

to

scale

secondary

metals

production

in

Europe

is

critical.

Ultimately,

what

the

analysis

shows

is

that

the

demand

for

metals

can

be

seriously

tempered

depending

on

the

transport

demand

scenario.A

study

by 4Smaller

batteries

are

key

to

reduce

demand

for

raw

materialsT&E

also

analysed

the

relative

contribution

of

the

different

factors

-

smaller

batteries

(either

via

smaller

efficient

cars,

which

also

leads

to

less

steel

and

aluminium

demand,

or

simply

shorter

ranges),

innovative

chemistries

and

measures

to

reduce

car

travel

-

on

the

demand

for

battery

raw

materials.The

results

show

that

both

technological

(battery

size

and

chemistry)

and

car

usage

factors

have

an

equally

important

impact

on

the

demand.

Smaller

batteries

represent

the

single

factor

bringing

the

largest

impact,

19%-27%

reduction

in

raw

materials

cumulatively

across

the

Accelerated

and

Aggressive

scenarios.In

the

Accelerated

scenario,

shi

ing

to

smaller

batteries

results

in

a

19%-23%

reduction

in

the

rawmaterials

demand.

Switching

to

less

resource

intensive

chemistries

brings

an

additional

4-20%reduction.

Reducing

the

km

driven

by

private

cars

is

responsible

for

7%-9%

of

the

reduction.A

study

by 5In

the

Aggressive

scenario,

the

more

radical

measures

around

car

usage

bring

in

around

a

fi

h

of

raw

materials

demand

reduction

compared

to

BAU,

while

smaller

batteries

are

responsible

for

around

a

quarter,

with

innovative

chemistries

10%-15%

(except

for

manganese

where

demand

increases

as

it

replaces

nickel-rich

chemistries

used

today).The

single

largest

factor

responsible

for

reducing

battery

metal

demand

is

achieved

by

shi

ing

to

smaller

batteries.

This

can

be

done

by

either

downsizing

electric

vehicles

themselves

or

by

simply

shi

ing

to

smaller

batteries

with

less

range

while

keeping

the

car

size

constant.

Overall,

including

materials

like

steel

and

aluminium,

downsizing

vehicles

is

the

best

strategy

not

just

for

resource

use,

but

also

from

the

social

(=affordability)

and

industrial

(=large

volumes

globally)

point

of

view.

In

a

supply

constrained

world,

this

is

also

sound

economic

and

industrial

policy.

But

it

requires

a

strategy

to

push

European

automakers

to

manufacture

more

entry-level smaller

models

given

thedominance

of

large

e-models

on

the

European

market

today.Smaller

electric

cars,

being

lighter,

would

be

ideal

for

less

resource

intensive

chemistries,

notably

sodium-ion,

while

guaranteeing

sufficient

range.

But

while

first

models

with

this

chemistry

are

being

sold

in

China

from

2023

(e.g.

the

BYD

Seagull),

no

commercial

plans

exist

in

Europe.

It

is

critical

European

companies

move

into

this

space

fast.Policies

are

key

to

make

this

happenWithout

strong

measures,

automakers

will

continue

marketing

and

selling

larger

and

heavier

electric

cars

in

pursuit

of

profit.

Awareness

campaigns

on

their

own

will

not

be

enough

to

convince

people

to

drive

their

private

cars

less

or

switch

to

a

bike.

Strong

policy

at

European,

national

and

-

crucially

-

local

level

is

key

to

ensure

the

essential

transition

to

electrification

happens

in

the

most

resource

efficient

manner.An

EU-wide

strategy

is

needed

to

shi

to

smaller,

affordable

and

resource

light

electric

vehicles,

including

tax

incentives,

European

battery

efficiency

standards

and

incentives

on

automakers

to

produce

more

entry-level

models.

On

top

of

already

strong

research

&

development

policy

across

Europe,

strong

industrial

policy

is

needed

to

commercialise

new,

less

resource

intensive

chemistries.

Notably,

scaling

up

European

production

of

iron-based

(LFP)

and

sodium-based

(Na-ion)

batteries.Reducing

the

km

driven

in

private

cars

will

require

a

range

of

measures.

These

start

with

reducing

road

building

and

the

space

available

for

private

cars

via

spatial

planning

(e.g.

making

essential

facilities

available

in

every

district,

creating

pedestrianised

areas

or

redirecting

through-traffic)

and

parking

charges.

Improving

public

transport

and

infrastructure

for

active

modes

(e.g.

biking

lanes

and

hangars,

school

streets)

as

well

as

incentives

to

promote

shared

mobility

(car

and

ride

sharing,

bike

and

e-scooter

sharing)

are

also

important.A

study

by 6Electrifying

passenger

transport

is

essential

for

the

climate,

but

it

doesn?t

have

to

break

the

planet.

Ensuring

metals

are

responsibly

sourced

and

recovered

from

old

products

as

much

as

possible,

while

putting

in

place

measures

to

downsize

cars

and

change

the

way

we

move

will

make

the

transformation

truly

sustainable

and

resource

savvy.A

study

by 7Table

of

contentsAcronyms91.

Introduction 102.

Decarbonised

transport

scenarios 10Scenario

1:

Business

as

usual 11Scenario

2:

Accelerated

innovation

and

fewer

car

km

scenario 12Scenario

3:

Aggressive

innovation

and

fewer

car

km

scenario 14Summary

of

scenarios 153.

Results 163.1

How

much

battery

raw

materials

will

Europe

need

for

the

EV

transition? 163.2

What

are

the

contributing

factors

driving

less

raw

materials

needed? 233.3

What

are

the

global

reserves

for

battery

raw

materials? 254.

Discussion 274.1

Raw

materials

demand 274.2

Factors

driving

the

reduction

of

raw

materials 29Battery

size 29Battery

chemistry 30Fewer

car

km

and

greater

resource

efficiency 315.

Policy

recommendations 326.

Annex 366.1.

Methodology

and

assumptions 366.1.1

Data

sources 366.1.2

Calculation

steps 366.1.3

Assumptions 38Scenario

1:

Business

as

usual

(BaU) 39Scenario

2:

Accelerated

innovation

and

fewer

car

km

scenario

(or

accelerated

scenario) 41Scenario

3:

Aggressive

innovation

and

fewer

car

km

scenario

(or

aggressive

scenario) 436.1.4

Chemistry

mix

comparisons 466.2

Annual

raw

materials

demand 48Bibliography 51A

study

by 8AcronymsBAU

-

Business

as

Usual

scenario

BEV

-

battery

electric

vehicleCo

-

cobaltCLTC

-

China

Light

Duty

Vehicle

Test

CycleCRM

-

critical

raw

materialsDRC

-

Democratic

Republic

of

the

Congo

EV

-

electric

vehicleFCEV

-

fuel

cell

electric

vehicle

GWh

-

gigawatt-hourIRMA

-

The

Initiative

for

Responsible

Mining

Assurancekt

-

kilotonneskWh

-

kilowatt-hourLi

-

lithiumLi-ion

batteries

-

lithium-ion

batteries

LFP

-

lithium

iron

phosphateLMFP

-

lithium

manganese

iron

phosphateLMR-NMC

-

lithium-manganese

rich

nickel

manganese

cobalt

oxideLNMO

-

lithium

nickel

manganese

oxide

Mn

-

manganeseMt

-

million

tonnesMtoe

-

million

tonnes

of

oil

equivalent

Na-ion

batteries

-

sodium-ion

batteries

Ni

-

nickelNCA

-

lithium

nickel

cobalt

aluminium

oxide

NMC

-

lithium

nickel

manganese

cobalt

oxide

SUV

-

sport

utility

vehicleUSGS

-

US

Geological

Survey

ZEV

-

zero

emissions

vehicleA

study

by91.

IntroductionTransport

decarbonisation

and

electrification

is

a

crucial

component

of

the

European

Green

Deal.

Electrifying

passenger

transport

is

essential

if

Europe

is

to

meet

its

climate

and

air

quality

targets

and

should

happen

at

a

much

faster

speed

and

scale

than

today.

But

technologies

such

as

batteries

will

require

large

amounts

of

raw

materials

such

as

nickel,

lithium,

cobalt

and

manganese.

In

the

Sustainable

Policy

Scenario

developed

by

the

International

Energy

Agency,

mineral

demand

could

grow

by

30

times

between

2020

and

2040

globally

[1].

The

concerns

of

such

high

projections

are

two-fold:

on

the

one

hand,

insufficient

raw

materials

supply

can

lead

to

market

volatility

and

slowdown

the

transition

to

a

net-zero

economy;

on

the

other

hand,

mining

expansion,

without

appropriate

regulatory

safeguards

in

place,

can

pose

environmental

and

social

risks.Alongside

stronger

regulation

on

the

mining

sector,

it

is

important

to

also

take

measures

to

reduce

reliance

on

primary

production

via

various

levers:

decrease

raw

materials

intensity

in

batteries

through

optimised

battery

sizes

and

diversified

battery

chemistries,

and

at

the

same

time

decrease

private

car

dependency

and

increase

public

and

active

transport

usage.In

this

report

T&E

aims

at

estimating

the

amount

of

battery

grade

nickel,

lithium,

cobalt

and

manganese

needed

to

decarbonise

passenger

transport

in

three

scenarios

in

Europe,

and

explores

how

different

approaches

to

battery

size,

battery

chemistry

and

car

usage

influence

this

demand.

A

future

of

zero-emissions

transportation

will

require

some

level

of

mining

in

all

scenarios,

this

is

why

strict

environmental

and

social

standards

are

essential

to

ensure

a

fair

and

equitable

transition.2.

Decarbonised

transport

scenariosThe

starting

point

of

this

analysis

is

that

cars,

buses

and

coaches

all

electrify

based

on

the

most

ambitious

timeline

feasible

that

is

in

line

with

Europe?s

2050

zero

emissions

goal,

and

the

global

Paris

agreement.

This

means

all

new

cars

are

modelled

to

be

electric

by

2032,

buses

by

2027

and

coaches

by

2035.

The

necessary

electrification

uptake

is

modelled

to

achieve

the

100%

zero

emissions

effectively,

same

across

all

scenarios.Sales

of

new

cars

are

assumed

to

reach

a

24%

electrification

rate

in

2025,

80%

in

2030

and

100%

in

2032

and

beyond.

These

assumptions

are

more

ambitious

than

the

European

Commission

proposals

and

are

part

of

the

T&E

scenario

that

implies

a

faster

electrification

of

corporate

fleets

and

increased

ambition

of

the

car

CO2

standards.

The

share

of

electric

buses

in

total

new

bus

sales

would

increase

from

23%

in

2025

to

100%

in

2027

and

therea

er,

while

electric

coaches

would

account

for

3%

of

total

coach

sales

in

2025,

growing

to

64%

in

2030

and

100%

by

2035.Finally,

considering

the

complete

electrification

in

all

scenarios,

it

is

assumed

that

a

sufficient

number

of

charging

stations

will

be

available

to

allow

fast

electrification

and

smaller

batteries.

UpcomingA

study

by 10regulations

(e.g.

Alternative

Fuel

Infrastructure

Regulation

-

AFIR)

will

require

governments

to

invest

and

develop

the

necessary

infrastructure.Table

1:

Electrification

uptake

by

vehicle

segmentT&E

developed

three

potential

future

scenarios

for

selected

battery

cathode

raw

materials

demand

in

passenger

transport

based

on

several

factors

in

order

to

compare

the

consumption

of

lithium,

nickel,

cobalt

and

manganese

-

which

are

today

a

focus

of

T&E?s

work.

The

factors

are:●

battery

capacity

or

size;●

battery

chemistry;●

passenger

distance

travelled

by

transport

mode

(private

car

km

vs.

public

transport).The

analysis

focuses

on

Europe

(the

EU,

the

UK,

Norway

and

Switzerland)

and

covers

the

period

from

2022

to

2050.

A

variety

of

data

sources

ranging

from

in-house

models

and

expertise

to

estimates

based

on

third

party

sources

such

as

BloombergNEF,

LMC

Automotive

and

TNO

was

used

[2–4].

More

details

on

the

methodology

can

be

found

in

the

Annex.Finally,

the

report

acknowledges

that

apart

from

the

cathode-focused

raw

materials,

the

electrification

of

the

passenger

transport

will

require

many

of

other

minerals

used

in

other

electric

vehicle

components,

such

as

graphite

for

battery

anodes;

rare

earth

elements

(REEs)

for

some

electric

engine

technologies;

copper

for

current

collectors,

wirings

and

motor

coils;

and

aluminium

for

current

collectors,

casings

and

vehicle

body

components,

which

are

not

within

the

scope

of

this

report.

Materials

for

broader

infrastructure

demand,

such

as

charging,

is

also

excluded.Scenario

1:

Business

as

usualIn

this

scenario,

passenger

transport

activity

(or

distance

travelled)

is

aligned

with

the

EU

Reference

Scenario

2020

[5],

which

projects

energy,

transport

and

greenhouse

gas

emissions

trends

to

2050

for

the

EU

member

states.

These

scenarios

imply

no

meaningful

modal

shi

in

the

long

run,

with

passenger

cars

maintaining

a

high

share

in

transport

activity

mix

(~88%)

in

2050.With

regards

to

battery

capacities

(or

battery

sizes),

these

were

assumed

to

follow

the

industry?s

trend

towards

larger

size

batteries

based

on

LMC

Automotive

data

available

until

2030,

i.e.

73

kWh

in

2030

and

beyond.

At

the

same

time

electric

buses

and

coaches

will

see

a

declining

trend

in

battery

capacities

as

their

energy

efficiency

improves

(from

281

kWh

today

to

252

kWh

in

2050

for

buses,

and

from

777

kWh

today

to

616

kWh

in

2050

for

battery

electric

coaches;

batteries

of

the

fuel

cell

coaches

are

presumed

toA

study

by 11Share

of

electric202520302035

onCars24%80%100%Buses

(100%

in

2027)23%100%100%Coaches

(battery

&

fuel

cell)3%64%100%stay

constant

at

140

kWh

throughout

the

period).

These

figures

are

based

on

TNO

data

for

long

haul

trucks

with

a

500

km

range,

given

the

similarities

between

coaches

and

trucks

in

terms

of

battery

range

and

chemistries

and

lack

of

additional

data

on

coaches

[4].The

battery

chemistry

mix

for

cars

in

this

scenario

is

made

up

of

mainly

of

iron-based,

cobalt-

and

nickel-free

(LFP,

LFMP)

and

nickel-rich

chemistries

as

is

the

case

today

(NMC,

NCA

variations,

also

known

as

ternary

chemistries),

in

addition

to

some

manganese-based

formulations

(LMR-NMC,

LNMO).

Considering

the

recent

advances

in

sodium-ion

(Na-ion)

batteries,

a

small

share

of

these

to

the

chemistry

mix

was

added,

achieving

a

market

penetration

rate

of

up

to

10%

by

2050

and

finding

application

in

the

small

car

segment.

This

can

be

justified

in

the

Business

as

Usual

(BaU)

because,

according

to

BNEF,

by

2025

sodium-ion

batteries

are

expected

to

achieve

a

comparable

energy

density

to

LFP?s

density

in

the

early

2020s

when

LFP

grew

its

global

market

share

[6].

For

chemistry

abbreviations

please

see

the

Acronyms

section.Buses

would

use

a

large

share

of

iron-based

chemistries,

along

with

manganese-rich

chemistries.

Coaches,

which

need

more

driving

autonomy

than

buses,

will

be

dominated

by

nickel-rich

and

manganese-rich

chemistries.

Sodium-ion

batteries

do

not

make

a

big

contribution

here

in

this

scenario,

instead

more

resource

intensive

technologies

as

today

are

used.The

long

term

estimated

projections

for

the

battery

chemistry

mix

is

estimated

based

on

BloombergNEF

data

available

until

2035

and

Benchmark

Mineral

Intelligence

data

on

sodium-ion

batteries

[7,

8].Scenario

2:

Accelerated

innovation

and

fewer

car

km

scenarioWith

an

assumption

of

stricter

urban

planning

and

car

use

measures

in

place

(for

example

distance

based

charges,

congestion

charges,

parking

pricing

and

speed

limits),

passenger

distance

travelled

by

car

is

modelled

to

decrease

by

5%

in

2030

and

10%

in

2040

compared

to

BaU.

The

lower

distance

travelled

is

accompanied

by

a

shi

from

passenger

cars

to

public

transit

and

active

mobility:

6%

during

the

2030s

and

12%

of

travel

by

car

during

2040-2050

shi

ed

to

other

modes,

in

comparison

to

BaU.

Around

half

of

this

shi

would

be

allocated

towards

electric

buses

and

coaches

for

urban

travel,

while

the

other

half

would

be

directed

towards

suburban

trains

(which

are

not

covered

in

this

report).

Additionally,

it

was

assumed

that

the

passenger

car

occupancy

would

increase

by

5%

during

the

2030s

and

by

10%

during

2040-2050

compared

to

BaU.This

reduction

in

car

km

driven

would

result

in

lower

car

and

van

sales

and

higher

bus

and

coach

sales

and

activity

relative

to

BaU.Weight-based

vehicle

taxation

measures

and

robust

industrial

policies

would

shi

the

focus

from

larger

batteries

to

more

efficient

and

optimised

battery

designs

and

contribute

to

the

adoption

of

lower

battery

capacities

in

cars,

i.e.

from

an

average

68

kWh

in

2025

to

50

kWh

by

2050.

People

would

opt

for

compact

cars

rather

than

oversized,

unsustainable

and

pricey

cars

(such

as

sport

utility

vehicles,

SUVs).A

study

by 12Capacities

of

electric

bus

batteries

would

slightly

increase

to

300

kWh

in

2050

in

light

of

more

intense

usage

as

people

shi

from

cars.

Battery

sizes

of

coaches

are

considered

to

be

the

same

as

in

BaU

due

to

lack

of

data

and

uncertainty

as

to

how

the

segment

would

develop

in

the

future.In

this

scenario

a

more

forward

looking

uptake

of

battery

chemistries

was

assumed,

especially

for

lower

critical

metals

types

in

this

scenario.

Battery

chemistries

of

cars

comprise

a

higher

share

of

chemistries

without

nickel

or

cobalt

which

pose

supply

bottlenecks

and

sustainabil