XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境

XXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境2024/3/25XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*22第一節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)核算

EconomicAccounting一、經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)分類(lèi)

EconomicSectorClassification很多國(guó)家都有自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)分類(lèi)MostcountrieshaveaclassificationsystemfortheireconomicsectorsUS(previouslySIC–StandardIndustrialClassification)NowNAICS(NorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem)UN(SNA–SystemofNationalAccounts)XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*33經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)分類(lèi)EconomicSectorClassification分類(lèi)有利于Thisclassificationfacilitates經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出和投入的系統(tǒng)核算（國(guó)民收入和產(chǎn)品賬戶）Systematicaccountingoftheoutputoftheeconomyanduseoftheoutput(NationalIncomeandProductAccountsNIPA)監(jiān)測(cè)和報(bào)告績(jī)效，如GDPMonitoringandreportingofperformancemeasuressuchasGrossDomesticProduct比較和基準(zhǔn)Comparisonandbenchmarking規(guī)劃和預(yù)測(cè)[投入產(chǎn)出分析]Planningandforecasting[Input-OutputAnalysis]XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*44行業(yè)分類(lèi)MajorindustriesinChinaA農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing,andHuntingB采礦業(yè)MiningC制造業(yè)

ManufacturingD電力、熱力、燃?xì)饧八a(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)Utilitiesandsupplyindustryonelectricity,heat,gasandwaterE建筑業(yè)

ConstructionF批發(fā)和零售業(yè)WholesaleTradeandRetailTradeG交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)Transportation,storageandpostalservicesI信息傳輸、軟件和信息技術(shù)服務(wù)業(yè)transferinformation,softwareandITservicesXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*5資料來(lái)源：國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局/zjtj/tjbz/hyflbz/J金融業(yè)

FinancialIndustryK房地產(chǎn)業(yè)

RealEstateL租賃和商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)LeasingandBusinessServicesM科學(xué)研究和技術(shù)服務(wù)業(yè)scientificandtechnicalservicesN水利、環(huán)境和公共設(shè)施管理業(yè)Water,environmentandpublicfacilitiesmanagementindustryO居民服務(wù)、修理和其他服務(wù)業(yè)residentservices,repairsandotherservicesP教育

EducationQ衛(wèi)生和社會(huì)工作HealthandsocialworkR文化、體育和娛樂(lè)業(yè)Culture,SportsandEntertainmentS公共管理、社會(huì)保障和社會(huì)組織publicadministration,socialsecurityandsocialorganizationsT國(guó)際組織InternationalOrganizations5XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*66A農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing,andHunting01 農(nóng)業(yè)011 谷物種植0111 稻谷種植 0112 小麥種植 0113 玉米種植 0119 其他谷物種植

012 豆類(lèi)、油料和薯類(lèi)種植 013 棉、麻、糖、煙草種植 014 蔬菜、食用菌及園藝作物種植 015 水果種植 016 堅(jiān)果、含油果、香料和飲料作物種植 017 0170 中藥材種植 019 0190 其他農(nóng)業(yè)XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*702 林業(yè)021 林木育種和育苗 0211 林木育種0212 林木育苗022 0220 造林和更新023 0230 森林經(jīng)營(yíng)和管護(hù) 024 木材和竹材采運(yùn)0241 木材采運(yùn) 0242 竹材采運(yùn) 025 林產(chǎn)品采集0251 木竹材林產(chǎn)品采集0252 非木竹材林產(chǎn)品采集XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*88二、投入產(chǎn)出分析Input-OutputAnalysis經(jīng)濟(jì)是由復(fù)雜而相互依存的部分（農(nóng)業(yè)、制造業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)、政府、消費(fèi)者、其它國(guó)家等）組成的Theeconomyconsistsofcomplexandinterdependentsectors(Ag-Mfg-Service-Govt-Consumers-Othercountries)1、投入產(chǎn)出分析的概念★投入產(chǎn)出分析是一種運(yùn)用會(huì)計(jì)和簡(jiǎn)單的模型來(lái)表達(dá)農(nóng)業(yè)、制造業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)、政府、消費(fèi)者、其它國(guó)家等相互依存的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系Input-outputanalysisisanaccountingandsimplemodelingtechniquetorepresenttheseeconomicinterdependencies區(qū)域投入產(chǎn)出分析是在區(qū)域水平上的投入產(chǎn)出分析Regionalinput-outputanalysisisIOanalysisdoneataregionallevelXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*99以GDP作為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)效果和福利的問(wèn)題

ProblemswithGDPasameasureofeconomicperformanceandwellbeing包括了防御性支出IncludesdefensiveexpendituresE.g.FluepidemicorHurricanesorpollutioncontrolexpendituresorwaronterror沒(méi)扣除自然、社會(huì)或人力資本DoesnotdeductdepreciationofNatural,Social,orHumancapital[onlymanmadecapitalisdepreciatedincalculatingNDP]Ores,fossilfuelstockreductionMarineresourceloss,deforestation,airandwaterqualitychangesLossofinstitutions,skills沒(méi)包括所有非市場(chǎng)商品和服務(wù)Excludesallnon-marketgoodsandservicesEnvironmental/EcosystemservicesHomeservicesLeisureXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境第二節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與人類(lèi)福利

EconomicGrowthandHumanWellbeing一、貧富二、貧富差異的原因三、推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的因素四、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的愿景五、衡量福利的非經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)六、需要與欲望XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境一、貧富Therichandthepoor★經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)Keyideasoneconomicgrowth一個(gè)時(shí)期內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)力Productionwithinaperiod–howtomodel跨時(shí)期的增長(zhǎng)GrowthacrossperiodsBycapitalaccumulationBytechnologyraisingproductivityXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境二、貧富差異的原因★

Whyaresomecountriesrichandsomepoor?1、自然資源和條件差異Naturalresources&conditions2、增長(zhǎng)率不同GrowthrateWhyhavesomegrownmorethanothers?XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*13WhyEconomicGrowthseemsdesirable:

1.人均壽命與人均GDP的關(guān)系LongevityandGDP/capitaXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*142.嬰幼兒死亡率與人均GDP的關(guān)系

InfantmortalityandGDP/capita

XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*153.成人識(shí)字率與人均GDP的關(guān)系

LiteracyandGDP/capita

XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*164、幸福感與人均收入

HappinessandIncomepercapitaXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*17三、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的趨動(dòng)力★

WhatDrivesEconomicGrowth?P146一定時(shí)期內(nèi)的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)取決于資本存量和勞動(dòng)力Withinaperiod:ProductionfunctionCapitalstock,Labor不同時(shí)期則取決于Changesbetweenperiods儲(chǔ)蓄、投資和資本積累Savings,investment&capitalaccumulation技術(shù)進(jìn)步TechnologicalchangeP156Endogenous(functionofR&Dinvestmentinknowledgeandhumancapital)ExogenousXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*181、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模型ModelingEconomicGrowth:

1)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)ProductionFunctionP147NationalIncome=output(Y)Y=f(capital,labor,naturalresources) -TreatNRasaspecialcategory(ofcapital)Y=f(K,L,R)Y=Kα×Lβ×Rδ

Cobb-DouglasProductionFunction(α+β+δ=1forconstantreturnstoscale)Y=K0.2×L0.7×R0.1(解釋模型illustrativemodel)XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*192)儲(chǔ)蓄、投資和資本積累

Savings,InvestmentandCapitalaccumulationP149S=sYs=savingsrateSt=ItI=InvestmentKt=Kt-1+It

Moreyousave,largeriscapitalstocknextyear,hencehigheryouroutputIfSavingsrate>PopulationgrowthThencapitalperworkerisincreasing,somoreoutputpercapitaButdecliningmarginalproductivityofcapital,sorateofincomegrowthdeclining(duetoshapeofproductionfunction)XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*203、技術(shù)與效率

TechnologyandProductivityP155生產(chǎn)函數(shù) Y=K0.2×L0.7

×R0.1

加上效率因素(a,b,c) Y=aK0.2

×bL0.7

×cR0.1

如果a,borc≠1.0，結(jié)果會(huì)怎么樣？Whatifa,borc≠1.0?XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*21Productivityandgrowthrate假設(shè)

=a×b×c,那么: Y=

(K0.2×L0.7

×R0.1

)如果低效率國(guó)家LE的=1，而高效率國(guó)家ME的=1.2那么在相同的初始狀態(tài)L,K,R和儲(chǔ)蓄率下，高效率國(guó)家有高產(chǎn)出和高收入SameinitialL,K,RandsavingsrateMEwillalwayshavehigheroutput/incomeXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*22TimeYLE(=1.0)ME(=1.2)Incomegrowthratesformore-efficient(ME)andless-efficient(LE)productivityYt=

t(Kt0.2xLt0.7xRt0.1)XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*23Whatdrivesefficiency?外生性增長(zhǎng)ExogenousefficiencygrowthLuckybreaks:Goodweather,etc.內(nèi)源性增長(zhǎng)Endogenousefficiencygrowth新技術(shù)Newtechnology改善管理Improvedmanagement

t=f(Kt-1);intextbook:

t=Kt-10.6XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*24Recap:DriversofGDPgrowth加大投入Moreinputuse(L,K,R)增加資本積累Morecapitalaccumulated(K)提高效率Moreefficiency(

t)EndogenousefficiencygrowthisbasedonKt-1Sohowtoencouragethese?XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*25激勵(lì)與行為IncentivesandbehaviorWhatmakespeoplesavemore?文化習(xí)俗Culturalnorms儲(chǔ)蓄收益Likelihoodofgainfromsaving利率Interestrates(returnoncapitalownership)稅率Taxrates回報(bào)的波動(dòng)性Volatilityofreturns產(chǎn)權(quán)安全性SecurityofpropertyrightsXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*26一、環(huán)境影響恒等式IPATmodelP1801、環(huán)境影響恒等式I=P×A×TI=EnvironmentalImpact(resourceextractionandWasteinsertion)P=人口數(shù)量PopulationA=富裕程度Affluence(percapitaconsumptionorGDP/P)T=技術(shù)水平Technology(Envimpact/unitconsumption)第三節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境

EconomicGrowthandtheEnvironmentXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*27ExampleforIPATmodelGlobalemissionsofCO22000年，P=6billion,A=$7000,T=0.00055tons/$I=6×7000×0.00055I=23.1billiontonsI=PATisanidentity!它指出了經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)是對(duì)環(huán)境影響最直接的決定因素XX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*282、IPAT情景分析

ScenarioanalysisusingIPAT人口增長(zhǎng)Populationgrowth(functionoffertility)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)Economicgrowth(Affluencegrowth)技術(shù)進(jìn)步TechnologychangeXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*293、技術(shù)需求WhattechnologychangesareneededtokeepconstantCO2emissions?T*2050=23100/(P2050*A2050)Low/Low=0.4638High/high=0.0772DisaggregatedIPATIi=PATjjcanbespecificpollutants,icanbespecificindustriesXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*30二、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境關(guān)系的模擬

ModelingGrowthandtheEnvironmentProductionfunctionY=Kα×Lβ×Rδ

Savings/InvestmentfunctionS=sYs=savingsrateSt=ItI=InvestmentKt=Kt-1+It

RwasnaturalresourceuseXX第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境*311、自然資源對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生制約了嗎？

Donaturalresourcesimposelimitstoeconomicgrowth?自然資源Naturalresources不可再生資源Nonrenewableresources(fixedstocks)可再生資源Renewableresources(thereisalimitonmaximumsustainableharvest)自然資源能被投資和勞力替代嗎？CanRbesubstitutedwithKandL?技術(shù)進(jìn)步的作用？WhataboutTechnologicalprogress?XX第三章經(jīng)