全球去美元化分析報告：金磚國家-培訓(xùn)課件外文版2024.5

DIGITAL

&TRENDSDe-dollarization:

BRICS

andother

signs

of

shifting

powerIs

the

U.S.

dollar

no

longer

the

world’s

largestcurrency?Key

questions

answered

inthisreportAretheresigns

of

de-dollarizationin2023?What

developmentscouldacceleratede-dollarization?What

istheeconomic

impact

ofde-dollarization??

Theshareof

U.S.dollars

inFXtransactionsdeclined

bytwopercentbetween

1989

and

2022.?

BRICS

makes

up

31

percentof

theglobaleconomy.

Abreak

away

fromtheU.S.dollar

would

reflect

amultipolarglobal

economy.?

Emerging

countries

hopeforless

U.S.dollarvolatility,more

monetaryautonomy,

and

improved

regional

trade.They

pointtoward

U.S.Fed

rates,

whichgrewbyfourpercentinasingleyear.?

Fouroutof10

central

banks

plan

toincrease

theiryuanreserves

inthenext

10

years

as

China

graduallygainsingeopolitical

influence.?

BRICS

intendstouselocal

currencies

intrade.

Theexchange

rate

ofthesecurrenciesfluctuatessignificantly.OneU.S.dollar

equalsaboutfiveBRL

vs.85

INR.?

Withtheoil

tradevaluedat2.1

trillionU.S.

dollars

in2023,

changestothepetrodollar

could

severely

impacttheU.S.economy.?

SanctionsonRussia

politicized

thedollar,impacting

SWIFTtransactions.Year-on-year

growth

figures?

Digitalcurrencies

arebeing

developedandtested

but

are

insignificant

in2023.Themarket

shareof

CBDCinChina

isaround

0.13

percent

in2023.?

TheU.S.inflationratecould

bealsobeaffected,which

in2022

recorded

itshighest

rate

since

the1980s.declined

fromnearly

10

percent

in2022

to

two

percent

in2023.2Notes:Every

use

ofthe

term'dollar'in

the

reportrefers

toU.S.

dollars

unless

otherwise

stated;

BRL=

Brazilianreal;CBDC

=Central

bank

digital

currency;INR

=Indian

rupee;USD=U.S.

dollarsAre

there

signs

of1de-dollarization

in2023?De-dollarization,

or

a

break

from

the

status

quoTheU.S.dollar

isthe

most

tradedcurrencyin

FXworldwideAverageforeign

exchange

turnover

perdayofselected

currenciesin2022

(inbillionU.S.dollars)Sincethe1944

Bretton

Woods

Agreement,

the

U.S.

dollar(USD)

hasbeen

the

world’s

primary

currency

fortradeandcentral

banks.In2023,

however,

theterm“de-dollarization”madeheadlines.

Itrefers

to

apermanent

break

from

usingUSDasareserve

currency

andininternational

transactions,with

other

currencies,

suchasChina’syuan/renminbi(CNY/RMB),

readying

to

takeitsplace.7,506Global

averageRising

interest

ratesandconcerns

dueto

thepolitical

crisisonraising

the

U.S.

debtceiling

(see

page16)

aresome

ofthereasons

behindthis

shift.Asof

2023,

thedollarisstill

thebiggest

currency

inthe

world

when

itcomes

tointernationalforeign

exchange

(FX)transactions.

FXturnover

involving

theUSDonone

sidewas

worth

6.6

trillion

U.S.

dollarsin2022,

or88

percent

ofall

trades.6,6392,467Other2,2921,2539685263Notes:Worldwide;

December2022;

global

FXtransactions

involve

two

currencies

in

each

transaction,

it

either

being

the

sender

orthe

receiver;

this

means

that

the

total

will

be

200

percent.Sources:

Bank

forInternational

Settlements

(BIS),

ID:247328Are

there

signs

of1de-dollarization

in2023?The

dollar

is

in

decline,

but

by

howmuch?The

dollar

share

in

differentsectors

is

already

declining

in2023.

For

example,

the

USD

share

within

central

bankcurrency

reserves

decreased

from

almost

64

percent

in2007

to

nearly

58

percent

in

2022.

Central

banks

changing

their

portfolio

to

includeless

USD

could

beconsidered

a

conscious,politicalmove.

J.P.Morgan

raisedthepossibility

that

de-dollarization

happens

organically

andmore

accurately

reflects

the

complexities

of

a

global

economy.Dollar

madeup42

percentof

cross-border

SWIFTpaymentsUSD

shareinglobalSWIFTpaymentsfrom2019

to2023Dollar

use

ininternational

FXisroughly

88

percentUSDshareinglobalFXtransactionsfrom1989

to2022Dollar

declinedto58

percentof

total

global

reservesUSD

shareinglobalallocatedFXreservesfrom2007

to2022100%90.088.471.050%58.445.942.41989200720221999201120222019202120234Notes:(1)

Worldwide;

December2022;

figures

are

releasedtriennially;

(2)

Worldwide;

June

2023;

as

ofthe

end

ofQ4

within

each

year;(3)

Worldwide;

July

2023;

monthly

figures;excludes

payments

within

eurozone.ID:247328;

(2)

International

MonetaryFund

(IMF),ID:233674;

(3)

Society

forWorldwide

Interbank

Financial

Telecommunications

(SWIFT);

Watch,

ID:1189498;

Text:J.P.MorganSources:

(1)

Bank

forInternational

Settlements

(BIS);Are

there

signs

of1de-dollarization

in2023?FX

managers

think

de-dollarization

will

happen

eventually,

but

very

slowlyMost

centralbanks

have

dollarsShareofU.S.dollarincentralbankcurrencyreservesworldwideasof2023,

byregionCentralbanks

toincrease

RMB/CNY

reserves

over

USDIthasbeen

shown

thatcertain

countries

are

moreinterested

inde-dollarization

thanothers.

Thiscouldbebecause

theywant

to

bemore

independent

fromthedollar

or

build

closer

economic

tieswith

China.A2023

OMFIF

survey

reveals

thatthedollarwas

stilldominantacross

nearly

allregions.

Theshare

oftheChineserenminbi

(RMB)

wasconsiderably

lower

thanthatof

the

dollar.4.8%7.9%20.3%65.6%LatinAmerica22.9%1.7%92.52.0Sub-Saharan

Africa78.05.036.0%69.8%Asia-PacificRespondents

indicatedaneed

todiversify

away

fromthedollar

inthelong

run.Indeed,nearly

40

percent

ofcentral

banksplantoincrease

theirRMB

reserves

inthenext

10

years

over

thatof

other

currencies.Reserve

managers

commented

thatthedeclineof

USDholdings–and

growth

of

theRMB–would

beagradualandslow-moving

trend,with

littleeffect

onthedollar’s

dominance

forthetime

being.64.53.0Middle

East,

NorthAfrica39.4%54.54.017.5%14.1%Europe37.51.0RUUSDRMBIncreaseMaintainDecreaseDonotinvest5Notes:(1)

Worldwide;

July

2023;

“What

percentage

ofyour

total

portfolio

is

invested

in

the

following

currencies?”;(2)

Worldwide;

July

2023;

"Overthe

next10

years,

do

youanticipate

increasing,

reducing

ormaintaining

yourexposure

tothe

following

currencies?"ID:1395996;

(2)

Official

Monetaryand

Financial

Institutions

Forum(OMFIF);

ID:1396168Sources:

(1)

Official

Monetary

and

Financial

Institutions

Forum(OMFIF);Are

there

signs

of1de-dollarization

in2023?Central

bank

gold

buying

an

argument

for

and

against

de-dollarizationCentralbanks

heldsignificantly

less

volume

of

currencyValueofFXcurrencyreservesworldwide,from2010

to2022

(intrillionU.S.dollars)Thedecliningdollar

shareisseen

especially

within

centralbankcurrency

reserves.

Asshown

on

page4,

theUSDmarketsharewas

58.4

percent

in2022

–

adecline

of

0.4

percentagepointscompared

to2021.

Overall

currency

reserves,

however,declined

byeightpercent

between

2021

and2022.

Theabsolutevalueof

dollarreserves

decreased

byninepercent,but

sodidthe

valueof

allother

major

currencies,

liketheeuro.

Consequently,

the

relative

USDshare

remainedrelatively

unchanged.Gold

purchasesfrom

centralbanks

atarecordhighCentralbankgolddemand,

rollingfour-quarter

total(in

metrictons)12.912.712.011.811.711.611.511.411.010.910.710.29.31,078.5Overall

demand

forFXreserves

dropped

in2022

as

centralbanksboughtgreater

amountsof

goldthatyear.

Gold

priceswere

relatively

low

duringthesecond

half

of

2022,

accordingtothe

World

Gold

Council.Thismade

it

easy

forcentral

bankstoshore

up

gold

reserves.

Therise

incentral

bankgoldbuyingcouldbeinterpreted

asanotherindicatorthatthedollaris

losing

importance.

TheOMFIF

emphasizes

goldis

themainasset

forcentral

banksto

provide

diversification

fromrisky

assets.

Itis

unsurewhether

theincrease

ingoldbuyingisashort-term

or

long-term

trend.79.22010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20226Notes:(1)

Worldwide;

June

2023;

as

ofthe

end

ofQ4

within

each

year;(2)Worldwide;

Q1

2010

toQ1

2023;

net

purchases

and

salesSources:

(1)

International

MonetaryFund

(IMF),

ID:

247281;

(2)

Metals

Focus;

Refinitiv;

WorldGoldCouncil,

ID:1403268;

Text:Official

Monetary

and

Financial

Institutions

Forum(OMFIF);WorldGold

CouncilAre

there

signs

of1de-dollarization

in2023?SWIFT

and

the

dollar’s

changed

position

in

the

geopolitical

landscapeAnotherreason

some

countries

mightlook

tomove

awaySWIFTmessages

slowed

since

Russia’s

exclusionfrom

theUSDisbecause

of

thecurrency’s

useinfinancialandtradesanctions,suchas

thoseimposed

byWesterncountries

on

Russia

sinceMarch

2022

inresponse

toitsinvasion

ofUkraine.

Onesuchsanction,forexample,

wastheexclusion

ofRussian

banksfromSWIFT–amessagingsystem

thatfacilitatesbank-to-bank

(wholesale)

cross-border

payments.Average

numberofSWIFTtransactionsper

day,from2020

to2022

(inmillions)Year-on-year

percentage

changeinaverage

numberofSWIFTtransactionsperday,from

2020

to

20222020202120225040302010027.0%Thiseffectively

madeitmore

complicated

forRussia

todoU.S.dollar

transactions,which

impacted

the

dollar-nominatedSWIFTsystem.

Monthly

transaction

figuresrevealthatthegrowth

ofthemessaging

service

slowed

as2022progressed.13.5%These

factorscombined

–asset

diversification,

theperceivedrole

of

China

inthefuture,anddissatisfactionwith

theuseof

thedollaringeopolitics

–led

to

several

countries

wantingtomove

away

from

thecurrency

and

establish

alternativepayment

and

settlement

systems

in2023.2.1%0.6%7Notes:Worldwide;

July

2023;

SWIFTNetFIN

traffic;no

numbers

available

for2023.Sources:

Society

forWorldwide

Interbank

Financial

Telecommunications

(SWIFT);ID:1398256Whatdevelopments

couldacceleratede-dollarization?2BRICS

questions

U.S.

dominance

in

the

current

global

economyBRICSeconomies

aresimilarinsize

to

Europe

andthe

U.S.combinedShareoftotalglobaleconomicactivity

ofselectedcountriesandregions

acrosstheworldTheUnitedStateswas

thebiggest

single-currencyeconomy

intheworld

when

the

modern

financialsystem

was

formed

inthe

early

20th

century.

In2023,the

global

economy

ismultipolar.

Several

developingeconomies

havebecome

wealthier

and

question

theinterests

andintentionsoftheUnitedStates.20002022Brazil,

Russia,India,

China,SouthAfrica(BRICS)United

StatesEU-27Several

attemptstomove

away

fromtheU.S.dollarhavetakenplacewithin

BRICS,acollaborationbetween

Brazil,

Russia,China,

India,andSouthAfrica.In2015,

China

launchedCIPSasanalternativetoSWIFT.

Onebank

inBrazil

and

30

Russian

banksareallegedly

connected

tothe

Chinese

system

in2023,according

toNikkei

Asia.BISemphasizes,

however,thatthemarket

share

ofCNY/RMB

ininternationaltradewas

only

seven

percent

in2023

–

makingitthefifth-most

important

currency

worldwide.

TheINRranked

significantlylower,

reaching

amarket

shareoftwo

percent

withinglobal

trade.8.0%1.9%20.8%15.5%9.3%4.8%Indonesia,

Malaysia,

Philippines,Singapore,

Thailand

(ASEAN

5)JapanUnited

Kingdom.5%.2%.0%.5%.2%.2%8Notes:Worldwide;

August

2022;

currentinternational

dollars,convertedby

purchasing

power

parity

(Sources:

Drummond

Capital

Partners;WorldBank,

ID:1403678;

Text:;Bank

forInternational

Settlements

(BIS);

Nikkei

AsiaWhatdevelopments

couldacceleratede-dollarization?2One

option

for

BRICS

to

achieve

de-dollarization:

A

shared

currencyMedia

reports

on

the

potential

creation

ofacommon

currency

shared

between

the

BRICS

countriesSeptember2010SouthAfricajoinsBRIC;group

renamedBRICSOctober

2022Russia

claims

BRICSisworkingonanewreservecurrencybasedonabasket

ofthemembers’fivecurrenciesJune2009July

2015BRICfounded–includingBrazil,Russia,India,andChinaBRICSfoundsNew

Development

Bank(NDB)tohelpfundprojectswithinthe

fivemembercountries2023January

2023July

2023Russia

claims

BRICScurrencywillbediscussed

atthesummit

inAugust;

BrazilandArgentinaannounceintenttocreatetheirowncurrencyNDBclaims“noimmediateplans”forBRICScurrencyandcites40+

non-BRICScountrieswantingtojoin;rumorsfromRussia

thatBRICScurrencyistobebasedongold,which

islaterdeniedbySouthAfricaAugust

2023March2023BRICSsummitinSouthAfrica;nomentionofacommoncurrencybut

a

focusonbilateralclearingBilateraltrade

deal

Brazil-China;Russia

talksuseofacommontradecurrencywithIndia9Notes:Worldwide;

2009

to

2023Sources:

Business

Insider;

New

Development

Bank

(NDB);Official

Monetaryand

Financial

Institutions

Forum(OMFIF);Reuters;The

EconomistWhatdevelopments

couldacceleratede-dollarization?2Value

fluctuation

between

BRICS

members

is

a

barrier

for

a

shared

currencyBusiness

Insiderobserved

two

key

developments

in1USDin…2020202120222023BRICS’

most

recent

summit

inAugust

2023.

First,Brazil,Russia,China,India,

andSouthAfricadeclared

increaseduseof

local

currencies

intradebetween

thecountriesinstead

ofthedollar.

Thiswill

accelerate

the

move

awayfrom

the

dollar.5.89Brazilianreal

(BRL)4.904.02135.50Russianruble

(RUB)83.47Second,

BRICS

will

expand:Argentina,Egypt,Ethiopia,Iran,SaudiArabia,and

theUAEwill

join

theblocinJanuary2024.

Oil-producing

countries

joiningtheblockcould

havebig

consequences

(see

page15).96.2182.8550.0083.017.30Indianrupee

(INR)71.2270.70While

asinglecurrency

forallBRICS

countries

wasproposed

duringthesummit,itwas

not

discussed.Reuters

pointsout

thatBRICS

isnotafiscal

union,withlittlemacroeconomic

unison

and

different

currencyfluctuation.Futurecurrency

discussionswill

likely

beimpacted

asBRICS

continues

to

expand

–bothinJanuary2024

and

beyond.

Other

countries

thathoped

to

joinBRICS,forexample,

includeAlgeria,

Indonesia,Thailand,andVietnam.Chinese

yuan(CNY/RMB)7.226.966.3119.81SouthAfricanrand

(ZAR)18.9214.0113.4310

Notes:Worldwide;

August

2023;

closepriceText:Business

Insider;

ReutersSources:

Refinitiv;Whatdevelopments

couldacceleratede-dollarization?2BRICS’

second

option

to

achieve

de-dollarization:

Digital

currencyCBDC

arenegligiblein2023…Forecasted

transaction

value

of

CBDC

(inmillion

U.S.

dollars)…even

inthecountries

that

alreadyhave

themShareofCBDC

inpaymentsinselectedcountriesNew

payment

systems

to

help

makepaymenttransactionsbetween

countries

easier

could

alsobeathreat

to

thedollar.

Central

bank

digitalcurrencies(CBDC)refer

to

ablockchain-based

virtualcurrency

-muchlike

cryptocurrency

–

created

andissued

byacentral

bank.Cryptocurrencies

aredecentralized

–privatized

byindividualsor

companies

–

whereas

CBDCisadigitalversion

ofexisting

FXfrom

acentral

bank.In2023,

the

market

size

ofCBDCisalmost

negligible

–

asmany

countries

arestillonly

developing

or

testingthem.0.16%0.15%0.13%China0.10%1002023CAGR:+260,000%213,0002028TheEasternNigeriaBahamasCaribbeanAsia-Pacific

hasmore

concrete

ideason

what

touse

CBDC

forOpiniononusecases

ofstablecoin

and/orCBDC

inpayments,byshareofrespondentsThemainadvantageof

CBDCisthatitcantranscendnationalborders,

improving

cross-border

payments.Consequently,

manyCBDCexperiments

in2023

arenotonly

aimed

toward

consumer

payments.

Most

pilotsarecooperations

between

countries

thatwould

makewholesale

interbank

paymentsbetween

nationseasier.Thistrend

ismost

visibleinAsia-Pacific.9%7%8%7%14%

32%

14%12%11%35%

20%

28%Alloftheabove35%

28%

40%Providing

abettercustomer/clientEnabling

moreeffective

treasurymovementsAddressing

newWe

donotseeanyinvolvement

withstablecoin/CBDCcustomers

whodonotusetraditional

financepayment

experienceAmericasAsia-PacificEurope,

MiddleEast,andAfrica(EMEA)11

Notes:(1)

Worldwide;

March2023;

(2)

Worldwide;

March2023;

no

consistent

reportingortracking;(3)

Worldwide;

May

31,

2022,

to

October

27,

2022ID:1386286;

(3)

Barclays,

ID:1386579Sources:

(1)

Juniper

Research,ID:

1386347;

(2)

Domesticcentralbanks;Whatdevelopments

couldacceleratede-dollarization?2Emerging

countries

are

further

in

digital

currency

than

the

U.S.Current

stageofcentral

bank-issued

digitalcurrency

(CBDC)projects

worldwideRussiarTheBahamasSand

dollarPilot(s)

/early2023LaunchedLaunched/Oct2020EurozoneDigital

euroPilot(s)United

StatesPro

c

CChinae-CNYIn

development/Jul2021IndevelopmentResearchIn

development/Nov2022JamaicaJAM-DEXPilot(s)

/Jan

2022IndiaLaunched/May2022D

gital

rupeePilot(s)

/Nov2022CanceledorinactiveNo

informationSaudi

ArabiaProject

AberPilot(s)

/Sep2022BrazilDigital

realNigeriae-NairaIn

development/Nov2020South

AfricaLaunched/Oct2021Project

Khukha2Pilot(s)

/Apr

2022Disputedareas12

Notes:Worldwide;

August

2023Sources:

Atlantic

Council;Whatistheeconomic3impactof

de-dollarization?Volatility

a

reason

for

–

and

potential

consequence

of

–

de-dollarizationSignificantinterest

rate

decisions

from

theFederal

Reserve…Monthly

Fed

funds

effective

rate,

from

2020

to

2023Foremerging

economies,

moving

away

fromthedollarwouldmake

themlessvulnerable

tofluctuationsinU.S.monetarypolicy.

Reuters

quotesBrazil’s

presidentLuizInacioLuladaSilvaduringthe

opening

plenary

session

of

the

August

2023

BRICSsummit:

[aBRICS

currency

would]

“increase

ourpaymentoptionsandreduce

ourvulnerabilities.”

Thecomment

followstwo

monthsafterthe

Federal

Reserve

increased

interest

ratestotheirhighestratein16

years

inabidtocombat

inflationinthe

United

States.4.10%Dec

20225.08%Jun20231.21%Jun20220.08%Dec

20210.09%Dec

20200.08%Jun20212020202120222023…madethedollar

more

volatileU.S.DollarIndex(DXY)development,from1999

to2023This–andthe

increasing

volatility

ofthedollar–impactsemerging

economies

thateither

borrow

from

the

U.S.

or

rely

onthe

dollar

fortrade.102.0Aug202394.1Jan1999120.9Jul2001Abreak

away

from

the

dollar

maynot

solve

thisinitially.TheEconomic

Times

reports

thataninitialtransitionperiod

couldincrease

exchange

ratevolatility

atfirst

asinvestors

adjusttothe

new

situation.71.3Apr200820002010202013

Notes:(1)

United

States;July

2023;

as

ofthe

firstday

ofeach

month;

(2)

United

States;August

2023;

composite

index

ofUSDversusEUR,JPY,GBP,

CAD,

SEK,CHF.Sources:

(1)

St.Louis

Fed,

ID:187616;

(2)

Intercontinental

Exchange

(ICE);

Yahoo

Finance,

ID:

1404145;

Text:Reuters;The

Economic

TimesWhatistheeconomic3impactof

de-dollarization?A

second

motivation

for

de-dollarization

is

the

promotion

of

regional

tradeChinatakes

up

most

tradevolume

within

BRICSGross

trade

flows

within

BRICS

countries

and

other

selected

countries

2022

(in

billion

U.S.

dollars)Asnotedon

page10,

reducing

reliance

ontheU.S.dollar

wouldmake

iteasier

tofacilitateclose

economic

tiesbetweenneighboring

countries

or

withinregions.

Several

BRICS

countriesalready

havebilateral

agreements

fortradeusingtheirlocalcurrencies.BrazilRussiaIndia15.9043.60China157.50190.30117.30South

Africa2.70BrazilRussia10.6010.6015.90157.502.700.80Forexample,

Reuters

reported

inMarch

2023

thatChina’snationaloil

company

andFrance’s

TotalEnergies

bought65,000

metric

tonsof

LNGfrom

the

United

ArabEmirates

usingyuan–the

first

cross-border

settlement

with

the

Chinese

currency.India43.60190.300.8019.40China117.3019.4056.70South

Africa56.70China

records

significanttradefigureswith

allfourother

memberswithin

BRICS.

Brazil

andRussia,especially,

focuson

the

Asiancountry.

Thesame

canbesaidof

the

countries

thatwill

join

BRICSinearly

2024:

SaudiArabiaand

theUAEbothfavortradewithChina

andIndia.Argentina

isthesecond

biggest

tradingpartnerwith

Brazil

at29

billion

U.S.dollars–afterChina,

which

tradesat157

billionU.S.

dollarsworth

with

Brazil.

The

expansion

oftheeconomic

blocwould

beamore

accuratereflection

ofthecurrenttradesituationforthese

countries.AlgeriaArgentinaEgypt3.2029.003.605.208.405.90Not

available0.802.505.307.4021.4018.20149.10116.0099.300.000.600.201.804.906.603.906.90IndonesiaSaudi

ArabiaUAE2.70*38.5056.3085.201.50*5.20*14

Notes:Worldwide;

August

2023;

*2021,

all

other

figures

concern2022;

Argentina,

Egypt,

Saudi

Arabia,and

the

UAE

are

confirmed

tojoin

BRICS

in

January

2024.Sources:

UNComtrade,ID:1404108;

Text:ReutersWhatistheeconomic3impactof

de-dollarization?Regional

oil

trade

could

see

a

big

changeThepetrodollar

istied

toamajor

commodity

marketOil

market

size

compared

to

top

metal

markets

in

2023

(in

billion

U.S.

dollars)An

important

aspect

of

the

U.S.

dollaristheso-called

petrodollar.

Thisterm

comesfrom

the

oil

tradeandhasexisted

since

1973

when

theUnitedStatesmadeadealwith

Saudi

Arabiatoaccept

the

dollaras

the

only

payment

currency

foralloil

dealsworldwide.

Thissignificantlyincreased

the

importance

oftheU.S.dollarwithinglobal

FX,asoil

isthesinglelargest

market

within

global

commodities.

Additionally,the

deal

meant

thedollarwas

credible

again

aftertheU.S.left

the

Bretton

Woodssystem

in1971,

which

hadtiedthe

dollartogold

reserves.CrudeoilIronoreGold2,100.0283.4195.9Inrecent

years,

relations

between

SaudiArabiaand

Chinaseem

tohavegrown.

TheWall

Street

Journal

reported

thatSaudi

stateoil

company

SaudiAramco

plans

tobuild

a10-billion-U.S

dollaroil

refinery

inChina

with

apotential

forfutureoil

tradebetween

thetwocountries

to

bemadeinyuan–abreak

tothe

Bretton

Woodsagreement.

Thepetrodollar

could

alsobeimpacted

indirectly:

TheAtlantic

CouncilincludedtheUnitedArabEmirates

inapilot

project

forChina’scross-border

CBDC“Bridge

Project.”

A

successful

CBDCbetween

theUAEand

Chinacouldmake

iteasier

to

make

payments–includingoil

transactions

–between

thetwocountries.CopperAluminumNickel183.3152.668.8Zinc30.9Theexpected

expansion

ofBRICS

inJanuary2024

and

SaudiArabia’ssomewhatsurprising

additionwill

undoubtedly

focusthedebateon

the

petrodollar

and

theuseof

non-dollar

currencies

inglobal

trade.15

Notes:Worldwide;

June

7,

2023;

all

figures

areestimates,

asthey

arecalculated

by

the

sourcebased

onthe

prices

ona

setdateSources:

Visual

Capitalist,

ID:1404193;

Text:Atlantic

Council;

Wall

Street

Journal(WSJ)Whatistheeconomic3impactof

de-dollarization?The

U.S.

significantly

increased

the

supply

of

the

dollar

over

timeThetotal

supply

of

dollars……isnoticeably

smallerthan

theU.S.’

deficits.Public

debt

of

the

United

States

(in

billion

U.S.

dollars)Oilis

the

most

highly

traded

commodity

worldwide,andasdiscussed

on

the

previous

page,itisonlytraded

inU.S.dollars.

Thishassignificantlyuppedthedemand

forU.S.dollars

formanyyears,

making

iteasier

forthe

United

Statesto

runinternational

tradeandspendingdeficits.

TheU.S.

government

hasrunadeficit

ofroughly

one

trillion

U.S.dollars

every

year,meaning

itspendsalotmore

than

itreceives,

andin2022,

thattotalfigureamounted

to

over

30

trillion

U.S.dollarsinpublicdebt.Value

of

USD

in

circulation

(in

billion

U.S.