多米尼加共和國(guó)2024年大選分析報(bào)告-外文版培訓(xùn)課件

POLITICS

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SOCIETYDominicanRepublicgeneralelection2024CHAPTER

01OverviewTotalpopulationoftheDominicanRepublicfrom2008to2022,bygender(inmillioninhabitants)DominicanRepublic:totalpopulation2008-2022,bygenderFemaleMaleTotal12.011.011.2311.121110.8810.7710.6510.5310.4110.2810.1610.039.99.789.6510.09.08.07.06.05.04.09.525.65395.5485.535.475.475.415.425.355.365.295.35.225.245.165.195.135.15.075.035.014.974.944.94.884.824.834.774.72008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120223Description:In2022,thetotalpopulationoftheDominicanRepublicamountedto11millioninhabitants.ThenumberofmenwholivedintheDominicanRepublicwasslightlylargenthanthenumberofwomen.PopulationfiguresinthisCaribbeancountryshowamaintainedupwardtrendatleastsince2008.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic,CentralandSouthAmerica;2008to2022Source(s):WorldBankDominicanRepublic:Agestructurefrom2012to2022AgestructureintheDominicanRepublic20220-14years6.08%15-64years65yearsandolder100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%5.71%5.82%5.95%6.23%

6.38%6.56%6.76%7.96%7.17%7.4%64.35%64.54%64.71%64.89%65.05%65.18%65.27%65.34%65.41%65.47%65.49%29.94%201229.63%201329.34%201429.03%201528.73%201628.44%201728.16%201827.9%201927.62%202027.36%202127.11%20224Description:ThisstatisticshowstheagestructureintheDominicanRepublicfrom2012to2022.In2022,about27.11percentoftheDominicanRepublic'stotalpopulationwereaged0to14years.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublicSource(s):WorldBankGrossnationalincomepercapitaintheDominicanRepublicfrom2012to2022(inU.S.dollars)DominicanRepublic:grossnationalincomepercapita2012-202210,0009,0008,0009,0508,1007,9907,6807,1707,0006,7807,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00006,5006,2605,9705,730201220132014201520162017201820192020202120225Description:In2022,thenationalgrossincomepercapitaintheDominicanRepublicincreasedby950U.S.dollars(+11.73percent)since2021.Therefore,thenationalgrossincomeintheDominicanRepublicreachedapeakin2022with9,050U.S.dollars.

ReadmoreNote(s):2012to2022;BasedoncurrentpricesSource(s):WorldBankShareofpopulationlivingonlessthan3.20U.S.dollarsperdayintheDominicanRepublicfrom2012to2022DominicanRepublic:povertyheadcountratioat3.20U.S.dollarsaday2012-202216%14.3%13.7%14%12%10%8%10.9%8.8%8%6%5.4%20175.2%20204.3%20214.2%20184%3.5%20194%2%0%2012201320142015201620226Description:In2022,theshareofpopulationlivingonlessthan3.2U.S.dollarsperdayintheDominicanRepublicdecreasedby0.3percentagepoints(-6.98percent)since2021.ThiswasthefirsttimeduringtheobservedperiodthatthesharedeclinedintheDominicanRepublic.Nevertheless,thelasttwoyearsrecordedasignificanthighersharethantheprecedingyears.ReadmoreNote(s):2012to2022;Pricesadjustedforrelativepurchasingpowerparity(Source(s):WorldBankat2011exchangeratesOutlookonthecurrentstateoftheeconomyinDominicanRepublicin2024PerceptionsonthecurrentstateoftheDominicanRepubliceconomy202445%42.4%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%21.6%19.6%14.1%1.7%0.7%0%VerybadBadAverageGoodVeryGoodDonotknow/Noanswer7/statistics/1459605/perceived-current-economic-situation-dominican-republicIn2024,theoutlookonthecurrentstateoftheDominicanRepublic'seconomywasquitenegative.Around56percentofrespondentssaidtheoutlookfortheDominicaneconomywasverybadorbad,whilealmost22percentsaiditwasaverage.

ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;March6to9,2024;1200respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):GallupRepúblicaDominicana;RCCMediaPublictrustintheJuntaCentralElectoralintheDominicanRepublicasofApril2024TrustintheJuntaCentralElectoralintheDominicanRepublicin2024Donotknow2.3%Notrust18.6%Alotoftrust44.4%Sometrust34.8%8Description:InApril2024,approximately44percentofthepopulationsurveyedhadalotofconfidenceintheDominicanRepublic'sJuntaCentralElectoral.Around19percentofthosepolledsaidtheyhadnoconfidenceatall.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;April25to27,2024;1200respondentsSource(s):ACDMediaCHAPTER

02VoterdemographicsNumberofregisteredvotersintheDominicanRepublicfrom2002to2024NumberofvotersintheDominicanRepublic2002-2024Numberofvoters01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,0009,000,0002002200420062008201020122016202020244,792,6055,223,1615,369,0645,764,3876,116,3976,502,9686,765,2457,529,9328,145,54810/statistics/1459396/dominican-republic-registered-votersAsof2024,approximately8.2millionpeoplewereregisteredtovoteinelectionsintheDominicanRepublic,regardlessofwhethertheyresidedinthecountryorabroad.Between2002and2024,thenumberofregisteredvotersmarkedagradualincrease.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;2002to2024Source(s):JuntaCentralElectoral(DominicanRepublic)ShareofpeopleregisteredtovoteintheDominicanRepublicin2024,bygenderShareofregisteredvotersintheDominicanRepublic2024,bygender60%51%49%50%40%30%20%10%0%MaleFemale11Description:In2024,about51percentofeligiblevotersfortheDominicanRepublicgeneralelectionofMay18thwerewomen.ThemalepopulationoftheCaribbeancountrymadeuparound49percentofthevoters.

ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;2024Source(s):JuntaCentralElectoral(DominicanRepublic)NumberofregisteredvotersfortheDominicanRepublicgeneralelectionsin2024,byagegroupandgenderNumberofvotersfortheDominicanRepublicgeneralelections2024,byageandgenderWomenMen1,000,000900,000800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,000018-25years26-35years36-45years46-55years56-65years66-75years76-85years86yearsandolder12Description:Asof2024,approximately51percentoftheregisteredvotersintheDominicanRepublicarewomen.Thelargestagegroupiswomenbetweentheagesof26and35withabout903,000voters.Thisisalsotheagegroupwiththelargestnumberofmenvoters,withapproximately885,500voters.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;2024Source(s):JuntaCentralElectoral(DominicanRepublic)NumberofregisteredvotersresidingabroadfortheDominicanRepublicgeneralelectionsfrom2004to2024NumberofvotersresidingabroadfortheDominicanRepublicelections2004-2024Numberofvoters500,0000100,00052,440200,000300,000400,000600,000700,000800,000900,0001,000,000200420082012201620202024*154,789328,647373,984595,879870,00013Description:From2000to2024,thenumberofvotersresidingabroadeligibletovoteintheDominicanRepublic'selectionshasincreased.In2004,around52,000voterswereregistered,whilein2020thisfigurewasapproximately596,000.Forthe2024elections,870,000votershavebeenestimated.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;2004to2024;*EstimatedReadmoreSource(s):ObservatorioPolíticoDominicanoNumberofregisteredvotersresidingabroadfortheDominicanRepublicgeneralelectionsin2024,bycountryNumberofvotersresidingabroadfortheDominicanRepublicelection2024,bycountryNumberofvoters300,0000100,000200,000400,000500,000600,000700,000UnitedStatesSpain613,340107,861PuertoRicoItaly43,74820,42111,464PanamaSwitzerlandChileVenezuelaSintMaartenCanada8,6896,2325,1685,0754,7883,5803,5433,271GermanyCura?aoNetherlands14Description:In2024,anestimated863,000peoplelivingoutsidetheDominicanRepublicwillbeeligibletovoteintheMay19generalelection.ThecountrywiththemostregisteredvotersistheUnitedStateswithover613,000voters,followedbySpainwithover107,000voters.Inthirdplace,withabout43,800voters,wasPuertoRico.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;2024Source(s):JuntaCentralElectoral(DominicanRepublic)CHAPTER

03Votingintention,approvalandabstentionratesVoteintentionforthe2024DominicangeneralelectionsfromJanuary2024,toApril2024,bypoliticalcandidatePresidentialelectionpollinginDominicanRepublic2024,bycandidateLuisAbinader(PRM)LeonelFernández(FP)AbelMartínez(PLD)RoqueEspaillat(PartidoSocialistaCristiano)NoneOtherUndecided70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24Apr'24*16Description:AsofApril2024,thecurrentpresidentLuisAbinaderrecorded61.4percentofvotingintentionforthe2024Dominicangeneralelections.LeonelFernández,whohasbeenelectedpresidentoftheDominicanRepublicthreetimes,wasrankedsecond,withjustover23percentofvoterintention,whileAbelMartínezroseoverthetenpercentmark.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;April25to27,2024;1200respondents;18yearsandolder;*ThesourceonlyprovidesdataforthethreecandidateswiththehighestintentiontovoteinthemonthofApril.

ReadmoreSource(s):ACDMediaPublicopiniononthenumberofroundsrequiredfortheDominicanRepublicgeneralelectionin2024OpinionontheroundsrequiredfortheDominicanRepublicgeneralelection2024Donotknow/Noanswer4.2%Tworounds26.8%Oneround69%17Description:In2024,approximately69percentofthevoterspolledintheDominicanRepublicsaidtheybelievedtheMayelectionwouldbesettledinthefirstround.Only27percentbelieveasecondroundisnecessary.

ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;May1to4,2024;1500respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):GallupRepúblicaDominicana;RCCMediaRateofabstentioningeneralelectionsinDominicanRepublicbetween2000and2020AbstentionrateingeneralelectionsinDominicanRepublic2000-202050%45%40%35%30%25%20%20002004200820122016202018Description:From2000to2020,thepercentageoftheabstentioninthegeneralelectionsintheDominicanRepublicincreased.Inthe2000election,approximately24percentofvotersdidnotvote.In2020,thisfigurewascloseto45percent.

ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;2000to2020Source(s):ObservatorioPolíticoDominicanoApprovalratingofthegovernmentofPresidentLuisAbinaderfrom2023to2024ApprovalratingofPresidentLuisAbinader'sgovernment2023-202468.0%66.0%64.0%66.2%65.4%64.2%63.8%63.2%62.1%62.0%60.0%58.0%56.0%61.3%60.7%59.3%57.8%57%Feb'23Mar'23May'23Aug'23Set'23Oct'23Nov'23Jan'24Feb'24Mar'24Apr'2419Description:AsofApril2024,thepresidencyofLuisAbinader,whotookofficeinAugust2020,receivedtheapprovalof64percentofthosepolled.Thatwasthemonthwiththehighestapprovalratesincethepresidenttookoffice.Abinader’sapprovalratinghasincreasedintherun-uptotheelectioninMay.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;April25to27,2024;1200respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):ACDMediaCHAPTER

04ElectionissuesPublicopiniononthemainproblemcurrentlyfacingDominicanRepublicasofApril2024DominicanRepublic:opiniononthecountry'smainproblem2024Shareofrespondents15%

20%0%5%10%25%30%35%40%45%HighcostoflivingViolence,crimeandinsecurityUnemploymentOther38.1%35.1%5.8%4.3%HatianimmigrationCorruption2.3%2.3%2.2%2.2%2.2%PovertyNoneEducationGarbage1.4%DoesnotknowHealthThepresidentAbinaderDrinkingwaterFemicide1.1%1.1%1.1%0.8%0.2%21Description:AsofApril2024,roughly38percentofthepopulationbelievedthattheDominicanRepublic'smaincurrentproblemisrelatedtotherisingcostofliving.Violenceandcrimerelatedproblemswerereportedasthesecond-biggestproblemintheCaribbeancountry,atapproximately35percent,while2.2percentoftherespondentsareworriedaboutpovertyinthecountry.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;April25to27,2024;1200respondentsSource(s):ACDMediaInflationrateinDominicanRepublicfromJanuary2013toDecember2023(CPIcomparedtopreviousmonth)MonthlyinflationrateinDominicanRepublic2013-20232.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%22Description:TheConsumerPriceIndexgaugesthepricechangesinabasketofgoodsandservicesinadefinedtimeperiod.Comparedtothepreviousmonth,theCPIintheDominicanRepublicexperiencedanincreaseof0.54percentinDecember2023.Duringtheperiodinquestion,thehighestinflationratewasdocumentedinJuly2020,whenthemonth-over-monthgrowthofCPIreached1.88percent.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;January2013toDecember2023Source(s):CentralBankoftheDominicanRepublicInflationrateinDominicanRepublicinJanuary2024,bysectorInflationrateDominicanRepublic2024,bysectorConsumerPriceIndex2009=100Foodandnon-alcoholicdrinksRestaurantsandhotelsTransport138.69134.04132.69131.76GoodsandservicesAlcoholicdrinksandtobacco126.1121.56HelathHousing,water,electricity,gasandotherfuelsFurnitureandhousemaintenanceitemsEducation121.39120.14117.08112.17RecreationandcultureClothing99.6395.63Communications23Description:DuringJanuary2024,theDominicanRepublichadthehighestinflationrateinthesectoroffoodandnon-alcoholicdrinks,registeringat138.69ontheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)withthebaseofOctober2019toSeptember2020.

ReadmoreNote(s):January2024;base=October2019toSeptember2020Source(s):CentralBankoftheDominicanRepublic;ConsejoMonetarioCentroamericanoHomiciderateintheDominicanRepublicfrom2014to2023(innumberofhomicidesper100,000inhabitants)DominicanRepublic:homiciderate2014-20232018.1181614121081715.814.911.911.510.410.39.596420201420152016201720182019202020212022*202324Description:In2023,therewereapproximately12homicidesper100,000inhabitantsintheDominicanRepublic.BoththenumberofhomicidescommittedinthisCaribbeancountryandthemurderratehavebeendecreasingsince2014,whenover18homicidesper100,000inhabitantswerereported.ReadmoreNote(s):DominicanRepublic;2014to2023;*estimatesSource(s):InSightCrimeDominicanRepublic:Unemploymentratefro