高盛-能源采礦業(yè)思考

16August2024|12:43PMEDT

Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse:InvestorsAsking:WhatAreIdiosyncraticBuyRatedStocksinNaturalResources?

Inarelativelyrange-boundcommoditypriceenvironment,investorsarelargely

NeilMehta

+1(212)357-4042|neil.mehta@

focusedongainingexposuretoidiosyncraticstocks.Assuch,thisweekinthePulse,

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

weaskoursenioranalystteamtohighlightthemostidiosyncraticstockwithintheir

BrianLee,CFA

+1(917)343-3110|brian.k.lee@

coveragewheretheyareBuyrated.Theteamdiscussesthecatalystpath,views

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

fromcurrentlevelsandinvestorpushback.Stockshighlightedinclude:

JohnMackay

+1(212)357-5379|john.mackay@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

nMajorsandRe?ners:CalumetInc(CLMT)

CarlyDavenport

nMidstream:KodiakGasServices(KGS)

+1(212)357-1914|

carly.davenport@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

nUtilities:PG&ECorp(PCG)

AtiModak

+1(212)902-9365|ati.modak@

nCleanTechnology:ShoalsTechnologiesGroup(SHLS)

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

nEnergyServices:BakerHughes(BKR)

nE&Ps:TalosEnergy(TALO)

MajorsandRe?ners:

WhatisthemostidiosyncraticBuyratedstockinyourcoverage?Whatareyourviewsonthestockandwhatisthecatalystpathfromhere?

WeseeCalumetInc(CLMT)asthemostidiosyncraticBuy-ratedstockinthe

IntegratedOilandRe?nerscoveragegivenincreasingfocusonnear-termcatalysts

forthestock,withthemostnotablecatalystcenteringaroundpotentialapprovalofa

DOEloanwhichwouldallowthecompanytoshiftfrom~60mngal/yrofSAF

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productionto230mngal/yr,WenotethecompanycontinuestopointtoagreaterrelativepremiumforSAFvsRenewableDieseloverthemediumandlongerterm.Whileweremainmindfulofthebelowmid-cycleRDmarginenvironment,we

remainconstructiveonthestockandhighlightourexpectationsforin?ecting

earningsin2025+drivenbyimprovingperformanceatMRLandpotentialDOEloanexpectedtopositionthecompanyasaleadingNorthAmericanSAFproducer.

Whatistheinvestordebatearoundthestockandwheredoyoureceivepushback?

KeyareasofdebatesurroundingtheCLMTstorycenteraroundthecatalystpathforthecompanyintheeventthecompanydoesnotreceivetheDOEloanwhichis

expectedsupportthecompany’sMaxSAFexpansiontargets.Whilemanagement

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis

report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachs

Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse

highlightedconstructivedialoguewiththeDOEregardingtheloanapprovalonthemostrecentearningscall,thosemorecautiousonthestorycontinuetopointtothetougherRDmarginenvironmentinthenearandmedium-term,normalizingmarginsintheSPSandPerformanceBrandsbusinessesandthecompany’sleveragepro?le.Wenote

investorscontinuetoweighpotentialoptionsthecompanycouldtakeinthebackhalfoftheyearinto2025,includingaMRLmonetization(previouslydiscussedbymanagementoverthepastyear).

Midstream:

WhatisthemostidiosyncraticBuyratedstockinyourcoverage?Whatareyourviewsonthestockandwhatisthecatalystpathfromhere?

Kodiak(KGS)remainsthemostidiosyncraticstoryamongourcoverageasthenatural

gascompressionmacrobackdropremainscompelling-plusnear-termcatalystsfromitsrecentacquisitionofCSICompressco(CCLP).WecontinuetolikeKGSonapositiveS/Dbackdropwhichcontinuestosupportacompressionpricingupcycle,focusonhigher

qualitylargeHPcompression,andaclearcapitalallocationframework.Lackofouteryeargrowthcommentaryat2Q24earningshasrecentlyweighedonthestockthoughwebelievetheupsidedriversstayinviewfor2H24.Wehighlightseveralpotential

tailwindsintheneartermtoinclude1)upsidetosynergyguidance,2)completionofnon-coredivestituresstrengtheningtheoverallbusinesspro?le,and3)utilization

recoveryasitreorganizesandeliminatedunder-utilizedassets.Webelieverevenue

synergyupdatescouldfollowthe?rstroundofassetsalesandlooktothe3Q24callforamorecomprehensivelookinto2025+.

Whatistheinvestordebatearoundthestockandwheredoyoureceivepushback?

Investorsremainfocusedonsecondaryissuanceoutoftheirsponsor,aswellastheoverallgrowthoutlookfor2025.Onthelatter,investorsnotedthecombinationof

run-rate2Q24EBITDA(includingadd-backs)andmanagement’s7-9%growthoutlook

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togethershouldimplyupsidetoconsensusestimatesfor2025-thoughquestionsfocusonriskstothatviewandhowlongCCLPsynergiescouldtaketomaterialize.

Utilities:

WhatisthemostidiosyncraticBuyratedstockinyourcoverage?Whatareyourviewsonthestockandwhatisthecatalystpathfromhere?

WeviewthedriversofourBuyratingonPCGasidiosyncratic,withdislocatedvaluationduetohistoricalwild?rerisk,signi?cantimprovementsonbothoperationaland?nancialriskexposuretowild?resinCalifornia,aboveaverageearningsgrowthat~9%going

forwarddrivenbyarobustcapitalinvestmentplanandsigni?cantcostef?ciencies,andlessregulatoryriskintheneartermwiththeGRCresolved.Weexpectthatasthe

companyworksthroughtheDixieFireprocessthatitcouldgivecon?dencethat

AB-1054worksasintendedinCalifornia,thatgettingthroughanotherwild?reseasonsuccessfullycouldcatalyzeacreditratingupgrade,andthatthereareupside

opportunitiesaroundloadgrowthandfurthercostef?cienciesthatcouldpushnumbershigher,allpotentialpositivecatalystsforthestock.

16August20242

GoldmanSachsEnergy,Utilities&MiningPulse

Whatistheinvestordebatearoundthestockandwheredoyoureceivepushback?

ThemaindebatearoundPCGisifthe“Californiadiscount”willeverabate,despitetheprogressthatthecompanyandthestateofCaliforniahavemadeonbothoperational

and?nancialriskrelatedtowild?resintheirserviceterritory.Thisremainsrelevantas

concernsaroundwild?resandotherclimaterelatedrisksmaterializeinotherregionsintheUS.Thereisalsoinvestordebatearoundthepathforwardforthebalancesheet,andhowmuchequityultimatelywillbeneededtohitFFO/debttargetlevels,particularly

followingthedecisionfromtheCPUCtonotmoveforwardwiththeproposedPacGensaleandgiventhesigni?cantupsideopportunitiesaroundcapexrelatedtotransmissionandloadgrowth.

CleanTechnology:

WhatisthemostidiosyncraticBuyratedstockinyourcoverage?Whatareyourviewsonthestockandwhatisthecatalystpathfromhere?

ThesetupforBuy-ratedSHLSisthemostidiosyncraticacrossourcoverage.Weremainbullishonthelong-termprospectsforthecompany,giventechnologyleadershipwhichdrivesindustry-leadingmarginsandreturns,aswellasthecompany’sleverageto

growthintheUSutility-scalesolarsector.However,wedoacknowledgeidiosyncraticheadwindssuchas(i)wireshrinkbackliabilityand(ii)IPlitigationarelikelytodominateinvestorsentimentonthenameinthenear-termwithbothofthesefactorsseeminglytrendinginanetneutraltonegativedirection,oflate.Catalyst-wise,thecompanyis

expectedtoreceiveaninitialrulingonitspendingIPlitigationcaseonAugust16,whilethecompanywillhostits?rst-everanalystdayasapubliccompanyinthe?rstweekofSeptember,withtheeventlikelytohighlightamulti-yearoutlookand?nancialtargets.

Whatistheinvestordebatearoundthestockandwheredoyoureceivepushback?

Investordebateremainsdecidedlynegative,withinvestorsexpressingahighdegreeofconcernaroundthecompany’sabilitytofendoffcompetitionandmaintain

pricing/margins.Moreover,thecompany’spoorexecutionof?nancialtargetshasdriven

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investorconcern.Withallthisinmind,webelievethestockdoesrequiresomepatiencewiththepotentialforre-ratingasexecutionimprovesandutility-scalesolar

fundamentalsstabilizeremainingquitehigh,butlikelyoveramedium-termtimehorizon.

EnergyServices:

WhatisthemostidiosyncraticBuyratedstockinyourcoverage?Whatareyourviewsonthestockandwhatisthecatalystpathfromhere?

InEnergyServices,weviewBakerHughes(BKR)asthemostidiosyncraticlarge-cap

stockinourcoverageandnotenear-termcatalysts.WecontinuetolikeBKRforits

internaleffortsaimedatdrivingef?cienciesandstreamliningthebusinesseswhichwebelieveshouldhelpdrivemanagement’s20%margintargetsinOFSEandIETin2025

and2026,respectively.InOFSE,weexpectcostoptimizationinitiativesaswellasBKR’sfocusoncostproductivitytosupportcontinuedmarginexpansionandinIET,weexpecttoseebene?tsfromtheconversionofhighermarginbacklogandanimprovingsupply

chainenvironment.InIET,weadditionallybelievethecompany’sdiversi?edofferings

16August20243

GoldmanSachs

Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse

shouldsupportcontinuedorderstrengthwithaspeci?cfocusonitsnewenergyandnon-LNGawards.Aswelookahead,webelievethesefactorswillcontinuetosupportshareperformance.

Whatistheinvestordebatearoundthestockandwheredoyoureceivepushback?

TheinvestordebatearoundBKRcontinuestobearoundthemagnitudeofapotentialLNGorderslowdown.Whilethereisgenerallyabetterappreciationforthecompany’sdiversi?edIETofferings,therecontinuestobeaconversationaroundthepotentialfornewenergyandnon-LNGawardstooffsettheLNGorderdecline.Conversationshaveadditionallybeenaroundtheaftermarketservicesbusinesswithinvestorsdiscussingthemarginpro?leofthebusiness.Additionally,whileinvestorswespeaktolargely

believeBKRisontracktoachievethe20%margintargets,thereareconversationsaroundthepotentiallonger-termmarginpro?lewithinvestorsdiscussingifmid-20%couldbeachievedwhichwouldbringthecompanyclosertopeers.

E&Ps:

WhatisthemostidiosyncraticBuyratedstockinyourcoverage?Whatareyourviewsonthestockandwhatisthecatalystpathfromhere?

TalosEnergy’sunique(1)assetbasecomprisedcompletelyofoperationswithintheGulfofMexico,(2)exposuretobothpotentialorganicandinorganicgrowth,and(3)early

maturitystageversusshalepeerspositionsTALOasanidiosyncratic,oily,E&Pwithamulti-stagecatalystpathway.TALOistheonlypublic,pure-playGulfofMexico(GOM)producer,whichbynatureisamuchoilerbasin,andgivenourconstructiveoil

commodityoutlookforthenextseveralyears,positionsTALOcompetitivelyrelativetoshaleE&Ps.TALOrecentlyclosedthetransformativeQuarterNorthacquisition,andwith2Q24earningsresultsannouncedtheMonumentacquisitionalongsidethe

earnings/operationalbeattoincreaseinvestorcon?denceinthecompany’sexecution.Inaddition,TALOhashadsuccessinrecentorganicgrowthprojects(Venice,LimeRock),whichwebelievewillcontinuetoimproveinvestorcon?denceintheoperational

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executionin?ectionforthecompany.Webelievethatthecatalystpathwayofexecution,newprojectrampingtimeliness,scalingthroughgrowth,deleveraging,andcashreturnsiscompetitiverelativetothesector.

Whatistheinvestordebatearoundthestockandwheredoyoureceivepushback?

Investorsarelargelyfocusedongainingcon?denceinTALO’sexecution.Followingyearsofstockpriceunderperformancedueto(1)impactsoftheunitizationoftheZama?eldinoffshoreMexico,(2)acquisitionintoandlaterdivestmentofthecompany’sCarbon

CaptureandSequestrationbusinessandthe(3)volatileearningspro?le,webelievethatTALO’scurrentpositionasapure-play,oilyGOMproducerisanattractiveassetclass

andiswellpositionedforstrongexecutionfromthispointforwards.Inaddition,someinvestorsnotethevolatilenatureofthebasingiventhehigherimpactsof

workover/maintenanceandweatherinsecondquarter/thirdquarterrespectivelyrelativetoshaleproduction,however,TALOismindfuloftheimpactsofbothinthecompany’sproductionandcapitalspendingoutlooks.

16August20244

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Editor’sChoiceCharts

Exhibit1:Energy,Utilities&Miningsub-sectorperformanceExhibit2:WebelieveE&Psarere?ectingacostofcapitalslightly

Past90days(5/10/2024-8/8/2024)below10%

4-weekrollingavg.oftheimplieddiscountrateforE&Psbasedon?ve-yearfuturesandourNAVs

140

130

Indexperformance

120

110

100

90

80

70

16-May30-May13-Jun27-Jun11-Jul25-Jul

4-weekrollingavg.implieddiscountrate

XLU

ICLN

AMLP

Integrateds

Refiners

XLE

OSX

XOP

XME

GassyE&Ps

8-Aug

14%

13%

12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

7%

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Oct-15

Jan-16

Apr-16

Jul-16

Oct-16

Jan-17

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

6%

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:OurOECDEuropeOilDemandNowcastRemainedUnchangedLastWeekat13.8mb/d(0.3mb/dAboveOurJuneExpectation)

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Source:IEA,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit4:TheTotalReturnonBrentFuturesIncreasedto12%Year-to-Date

ThecollateralreturncorrespondstotheinterestearnedonahypotheticalfullycollateralizedcontractpositiononBrentfutures.

Source:Platts,Haver,ICE,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

16August20245

GoldmanSachs

Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse

SectorinContext

Exhibit5:ValuationsofE&Pstocksre?ectWTIoilpricesslightlyabovethe?ve-yearstrip

HistoricalWTIpriceimpliedincoveredE&Psnetassetvalueandforwardoilfutures,$/bbl

$130

$120

$110

$100

WTIoilprice

$90

$80

$70

$60

$50

$40

$30

$20

1-Jan-15

$10

$73

1-Apr-15

1-Jul-15

1-Oct-15

1-Jan-16

1-Apr-16

1-Jul-16

1-Oct-16

1-Jan-17

1-Apr-17

1-Jul-17

1-Oct-17

1-Jan-18

1-Apr-18

1-Jul-18

1-Oct-18

1-Jan-19

1-Apr-19

1-Jul-19

1-Oct-19

1-Jan-20

1-Apr-20

1-Jul-20

1-Oct-20

1-Jan-21

1-Apr-21

1-Jul-21

1-Oct-21

1-Jan-22

1-Apr-22

1-Jul-22

1-Oct-22

1-Jan-23

1-Apr-23

1-Jul-23

1-Oct-23

1-Jan-24

1-Apr-24

1-Jul-24

ImpliedWTIOilPrice

Frontmonth2-yrstrip5-yrstrip

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit6:Gas-focusedE&Psarebroadlyimplying~$3.30/MMBtulong-termgaspricevs.ourmid-cycleviewof$3.50/MMbtu,2024/2025gasfuturesat~$2.30/3.30perMMBtu

HenryHubgaspriceimpliedbyourFCFYield-analysisofcoveredgasproducers,vs.2024HenryHubgasfuturesand5-yearaveragegasfutures

$4.00

$3.80

$3.60

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HenryHub,$/MMBtu

$3.40

$3.20

$3.00

$2.80

$2.60

$2.40

$2.20

$2.00

$3.32

ImpliedGasPrice@$85Brent

$3.29

ImpliedGasPrice@$75Brent

$2.29

2024futures

$3.32

2025futures

$3.60

2026futures

Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

16August20246

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Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse

Exhibit7:Historically,UtilitiestradeataP/EmultiplepremiumtotheS&Pwhenthe10-yearUSTremainsbelow~3%,however,the

relationshipweakensintimesofnegativerealrates

UtilityP/Emultiplepremium/discounttotheS&PindifferentUST10-yearyieldenvironments

Premium/Discount

20%10%

0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)(60%)

12%13%

9%

16%11%

7%9%

Last5YearsLast20Years

(1%)

(2%)(1%)

(7%)

(21%)

(21%)

(51%)

<1.5%

1.5%-2.0%

2.0%-2.5%

2.5%-3.0%

3.0%-3.5%

3.5%-4.0%

4.0%-4.5%

4.5%-5.0%

>5%

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

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16August20247

GoldmanSachsEnergy,Utilities&MiningPulse

Conversationswearehavingwithinvestors

E&P–NeilMehta

EOG/OVV.Amidsttheongoingvolatilityincommoditymarkets,weseeinvestorsareplacingahigherdegreeoffocusonproducerswithexecutionandoperational

momentumastheyseekmoreidiosyncraticstoriesamongE&Ps,wherethereis

currentlylessinvestorinterest.Thus,wereceiveinboundsfrominvestorsonEOGwithastrongtrackrecordofoperationalexecutionandOVVwhichcontinuedtodemonstrate

operationalmomentumfromcapitalef?ciencieshighlightedwithrecentearnings.

InvestorsareinterestedinEOGasthecompanycontinuestogenerateattractivereturnofcapitaltoshareholders,maintainsnetcashbalanceonthebalancesheet,isabletolowercoststhroughef?ciencygains/innovation/supplychainmanagement,and

continuestoperformonoperationalexecution.However,someexpressconcernaroundthecompany’slong-terminventoryqualityfromemergingplaysandincreasinggas

exposureovertime.OnOVV,investorshighlightOVV’srateofchangeimprovementonexecutionoverthelastfewquarters.Whileinvestorsremainconcernedaboutthe

company’sleverage,someseeopportunityforcontinuedoperationalmomentumtosupportaccelerationofdebtreduction.

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16August20248

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Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse

Majors/Re?ning–NeilMehta

USMajors.InvestordebatecontinuestocenteraroundXOMvsCVXpost-2Qearningsseason,withinvestorshighlightingrelativeforpreferenceforXOMoverCVX.Those

moreconstructiveonXOMcontinuetopointtothecompany’spremiumUpstream

portfolio(Guyana,Permian),compellingcapitalreturnspro?leandstrongtrackrecordofquarterlyexecution.Wenotethosemorecautiousonthenamecontinuetowaitfor

furthercommentarysurroundingGoldenPassandremainmindfulofpotentially

normalizingRe?ningmarginsinthemedium-termbeforeturningincrementallypositiveonthestock.ForCVX,whilethequartercameinbelowStreetestimates,thosemoreconstructiveonthestockhighlightexpectationsforin?ectingvolumesandFCF

generationin2025asTengizrampsandrelativevaluationfollowingunderperformance.

Re?ners.InvestorconversationsontheRe?ningcomplexarefocusedonnear-term

demandconcernsonthebackofcontinuedChinasoftnesscoupledwithexpected

globalsupplyadds.Amongtheequities,investorscontinuetoleanintodiversi?edvs

pure-playre?ners,withfocusonMPC,PSXandDINO.ForMPC,investorscontinueto

highlightthecompany’sattractivecapitalreturnsstrategy,strongquarterlyexecutionandsupportiveMidstreambusiness.ForDINO,whilesomeinvestorscontinuetolookfor

updatedcommentarysurroundingunlockingvaluefromtheLubricantsbusinessand

remainmindfulofthebelowmid-cycleRDmarginenvironment,thosemorepositiveonthestockhighlightimprovingRe?ningoperationalexecution,commitmenttoshare

buybacksandsupportiveLubesearningscontributions.ForPSX,whilesomeinvestorspointtothecompany’sassetsalesprogressandthrough-cycleshareholderreturns

framework,otherscontinuetodebateassumptionssurroundingmid-cycleRe?ningandChemicalsmarginsassumptionsandpathtoachievementof$14bnmidcycleEBITDAtargetannouncedbythecompany.

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16August20249

GoldmanSachs

Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse

EnergyServices–NeilMehta&AtiModak

Specialtycontractors.AcrossourEnergyServicescoverage,wecontinuetoreceivethemostinboundsonspecialtycontractorsPWR,MYRGandMTZ.Investor

conversationshavebeenaroundpositiveutilitiescapexcommentaryandthe

implicationsforrenewableandT&Dwork.InvestorswespeaktoremainconstructiveontheneedforincrementalT&Dworkgivenincreasedloadgrowth,theaginggridandthefocusongridreliability.Discussions,however,havebeenfocusedonthemagnitudeofthegrowthoverthenextseveralyearsgivensomecautiousnessaroundsupplychain

andlaborconstraints.Investorfocushasadditionallybeenaroundtheupcomingelectionandpotentialregulatoryimpacts.

SLB.InvestorswespeaktogenerallyagreethatSLBlooksattractiveatcurrentlevels,butthereremainsadebatearoundwhatwillmakethestockworkfromhere.

Conversationshaveadditionallybeenaroundthegrowthpro?leoftheinternational

businessaswellasthecompany’sorganicgrowth.Ontheinternationalside,investorswespeaktoremainconstructiveon2024internationalgrowthandgenerallyexpect

continuedstrengthin2025.Thecompany’slong-termmarginpro?leadditionallyremainsin-focusforinvestorswithconversationsadditionallyaroundthemagnitudeofmargin

accretionthatthedigitalbusinesscandrivelong-term.

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16August202410

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Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse

Utilities-CarlyDavenport

XEL.Postearnings,wehaveseenmoreinvestorinterestinXcelEnergy.Thetwomaindriversofinteresthavebeen(1)ifrelativevaluationhasbecomediscountedenoughtogetcomfortablewiththeprogressthecompanyhasmadearoundtheTexaswild?re

processes,andalsotheupcomingtrialinColoradorelatedtotheMarshallFirethat

beginsinSeptember2025,and(2)howtothinkabouttheupsidecapitalinvestment

opportunitiesthatarenotembeddedinthecompany’sbaseplan,andwhatthatcould

meanfromaratebasegrowthandearningsgrowthperspective.Onthelatterpoint,

investorsqueryifthecompanywilllooktoraiseitsearningsgrowthguidancefromthecurrent5%-7%rangeonalongtermbasis,despitemanagementmessagingthattheywillgrowatorabovethetopendoftherangestartingin2025,tothe6%-8%rangeatleast,giventhesigni?cantnumberofcapitalinvestmentandloadgrowthopportunitiesoutsideofthebaseplan.Thecompanyplanstoupdateits?veyearcapitalplanandloadgrowthprojectionsonthe3Qearningscall,asconsistentwiththeirtypicalcadence,sothereisahighdegreeoffocusonthatevent.

AEP.Thisweek,AEPhostedameetandgreetwiththecompany’snewCEO,Mr.BillFehrman,alongwithothermembersofthemanagementteamandboardofdirectors,

andtheinvestmentcommunityinNewYork.Investorswehavespokentoonthe

managementtransitionatAEPhavebeenbroadlyconstructiveonthepotentialfornewleadershiptoimproveexecutionandregulatoryrelationshipsatthecompany,whathasbeenakeyoverhangforthestock.Keyfocusareasfrominvestorsattheeventcenteredaround(1)whattoexpectattheNovemberEEIconference,whenAEPisplanningto

updateitscurrent?veyearcapitalplanandloadgrowthprojections,the?rstupdate

withnewCEOinplace,(2)whatnewleadershipwillbefocusedonfromastrategic

perspective,includingimprovingregulatoryexecutionand?nancingarobustcapitalplaninasensibleway,and(3)viewsaroundrecentpowermarketdynamics,including

colocationdeals,datacenters,andthePJMcapacityauction’slikelyimpactoncustomerbillsacrossAEP’sPJMserviceterritories.

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16August202411

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Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse

MLPs/Pipelines-JohnMackay

Checkinginonthedatacenterdebate.Withsomechoppinessseenacrossthe

broaderdatacenter/AIinfrastructuregroup,questionsthisweekfocusedonhowthe

narrativeforrelatedupsideforthenaturalgaspipelinestockshasprogressedinrecentmonths.Thekeytakeawayfrom2Q24earnings,asrelayedbyinvestorswespokewith,wasthelevelofincrementaldetailsharedbycompanieslikeKMIthisquarter-helpingtovalidatethemacrothesisbeyondthemore“conversational”typeupdatessharedbymanagementteamson1Q24calls.Whilethedemandra