2024年土地利用規(guī)劃實(shí)驗(yàn)報(bào)告材料

土地運(yùn)用規(guī)劃試驗(yàn)匯報(bào)姓名：***專業(yè)：土地資源與城鎮(zhèn)規(guī)劃班級(jí)：4*********2學(xué)號(hào)：***********基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè) 1一、人口預(yù)測(cè) 1二、都市化水平預(yù)測(cè) 3三、農(nóng)作物單產(chǎn)預(yù)測(cè) 6土地需求量預(yù)測(cè) 8一、糧食需求量預(yù)測(cè) 8二、耕地需求量預(yù)測(cè) 11三、建設(shè)用地面積預(yù)測(cè) 14實(shí)習(xí)體會(huì) 16基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)一、人口預(yù)測(cè)根據(jù)重慶記錄信息網(wǎng)記錄年鑒得到到的人口數(shù)據(jù)，按農(nóng)村和城鎮(zhèn)（即農(nóng)業(yè)和非農(nóng)業(yè)）人口。并運(yùn)用一元線性回歸和人口自然增長(zhǎng)法預(yù)測(cè)出到的人口。措施一：趨勢(shì)外推法之線性預(yù)測(cè)表一：?jiǎn)挝唬喝f(wàn)人(10000persons)年份總戶數(shù)

(萬(wàn)戶)總?cè)丝诎葱詣e分按農(nóng)業(yè)、非農(nóng)業(yè)分BySexByResidenceYearTotalNumberofHouseholds

(10000households)TotalPopulation男女農(nóng)業(yè)非農(nóng)業(yè)MaleFemaleAgricultureNon-agriculture938.873091.091611.681479.412430.20660.89950.563097.911614.911483.002408.39689.52961.693113.831623.131490.702392.38721.45977.013130.101631.661498.442376.18753.92988.593144.231637.181507.052358.40785.831010.413169.161649.261519.902351.88817.281030.663198.871662.771536.102353.44845.431056.973235.321681.101554.222358.35876.971080.153257.051690.561566.492349.67907.381110.703275.611697.691577.922326.92948.691154.833303.451709.031594.422196.451107.001205.203329.811720.531609.282052.171277.641220.643343.441725.871617.572026.191317.253366.173389.033411.893434.743457.603480.463503.323526.18運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下：圖一措施二：人口自然增長(zhǎng)法人口自然增長(zhǎng)法是以已知數(shù)據(jù)的每一年作為基期，運(yùn)用自然增長(zhǎng)率和機(jī)械增長(zhǎng)率分別求取規(guī)劃期規(guī)劃期末人口數(shù)量的措施。表二：?jiǎn)挝唬喝f(wàn)人、‰(10000persons,‰)年份出生死亡自然增長(zhǎng)總?cè)丝贐irthDeathNaturalGrowthYear人口出生率人口死亡率人口自然增長(zhǎng)率TotalPopulationPopulationBirthRatePopulationDeathRatePopulationNaturalGrowthRate35.2211.4324.597.9810.633.453091.0926.268.4818.766.067.502.423097.9128.659.2018.075.8010.583.403113.8330.009.6118.055.7811.953.833130.1033.7210.7423.447.4710.283.273144.2330.669.7113.884.4016.785.313169.1636.5711.4914.894.6821.686.813198.8744.6613.8816.565.1528.108.733235.3243.2613.3324.567.5718.705.763257.0540.8212.5026.138.0014.694.503275.6162.8319.1038.9711.8523.867.253303.4541.2712.4419.555.9021.726.543329.8136.7611.0223.837.1412.933.883343.443473.173607.923747.913893.334044.394201.314364.334533.66計(jì)算公式：Pt——規(guī)劃年人口數(shù)、Pt0——基期年人口數(shù)、t-t0——預(yù)測(cè)年期、K自然——自然然增長(zhǎng)率、K機(jī)械——機(jī)械增長(zhǎng)率人口預(yù)測(cè)總結(jié)：預(yù)測(cè)建立在在到未來(lái)人口生存的社會(huì)環(huán)境相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的狀況下的。由于人口變化規(guī)律比較靠近于一次線性函數(shù)關(guān)系（圖一）因此采用了一元線性回歸措施預(yù)測(cè)（）。措施二中假設(shè)人口遷入和遷出量相等，以的為基準(zhǔn)用人口自然增長(zhǎng)率法計(jì)算到的預(yù)測(cè)人口，人口的增長(zhǎng)到一定程度會(huì)慢下來(lái)以致于也許負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)測(cè)需不停修正。在兩種措施的數(shù)據(jù)3526.18萬(wàn)人和4533.66萬(wàn)人差距比較明顯，目前人口老齡化比較嚴(yán)重，人口數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)不會(huì)那么快，因此趨勢(shì)外推法的數(shù)據(jù)比較精確。二、都市化水平預(yù)測(cè)都市化水平是一種地區(qū)的綜合實(shí)力的反應(yīng).重慶作為長(zhǎng)江上游的中心都市,研究其都市化水平狀況及其形成原因,并提出對(duì)應(yīng)對(duì)策,對(duì)該地區(qū)的發(fā)展有重大的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。預(yù)測(cè)選用了客觀的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行都市化水平量化分析。再運(yùn)用趨勢(shì)外推法進(jìn)行都市化水平的預(yù)測(cè)。措施一：趨勢(shì)外推法之線性預(yù)測(cè)（表三）單位：萬(wàn)人(10000persons)年份常住人口城鎮(zhèn)化率城鎮(zhèn)鄉(xiāng)村YearResident

PopulationUrbanizationRateUrbanRural2848.821013.881834.9435.6%2829.211058.121771.0937.4%2814.831123.121691.7139.9%2803.191174.551628.6441.9%2793.321215.421577.9043.5%2798.001265.951532.0545.2%2808.001311.291496.7146.7%2816.001361.351454.6548.3%2839.001419.091419.9150.0%2859.001474.921384.0851.6%2884.621529.551355.0753.0%2919.001605.961313.0455.0%2945.001678.111266.8957.0%68.1%69.6%71.3%73.0%74.7%76.5%78.2%79.9%運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下（圖二）：措施二：趨勢(shì)外推法之乘冪（表四）單位：萬(wàn)人(10000persons)年份常住人口城鎮(zhèn)化率城鎮(zhèn)鄉(xiāng)村YearResident

PopulationUrbanizationRateUrbanRural2848.821013.881834.9435.6%2829.211058.121771.0937.4%2814.831123.121691.7139.9%2803.191174.551628.6441.9%2793.321215.421577.9043.5%2798.001265.951532.0545.2%2808.001311.291496.7146.7%2816.001361.351454.6548.3%2839.001419.091419.9150.0%2859.001474.921384.0851.6%2884.621529.551355.0753.0%2919.001605.961313.0455.0%2945.001678.111266.8957.0%55.48%57.61%59.81%62.09%64.47%66.93%69.48%72.13%運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下（圖三）：都市化水平預(yù)測(cè)總結(jié)：兩種措施都建立在年鑒都市人口數(shù)量和農(nóng)村人口數(shù)量的變化上面的，線性預(yù)測(cè)（）乘冪預(yù)測(cè)（）伴隨都市的發(fā)展，都市化水平不停升高。從重慶為直轄市以來(lái)，一直在飛速發(fā)展，是一種正在成長(zhǎng)的都市，此前的都市化水平比較低，都市化發(fā)展?jié)摿Ρ容^大，都市化水平會(huì)增長(zhǎng)比較快，線性預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)比較合理。三、農(nóng)作物單產(chǎn)預(yù)測(cè)重慶市糧食作物單位面積產(chǎn)量水平進(jìn)行較為精確的預(yù)測(cè),是預(yù)側(cè)糧食總產(chǎn)量、調(diào)整糧食作物布局、建立合理的種植業(yè)構(gòu)造和農(nóng)村產(chǎn)業(yè)構(gòu)造的重要根據(jù)。根據(jù)年鑒上的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用趨勢(shì)外推法的對(duì)數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)和多項(xiàng)式預(yù)測(cè)農(nóng)作物的單產(chǎn)，重要為糧食的單產(chǎn)。措施一：對(duì)數(shù)表五年份糧食

（萬(wàn)噸）農(nóng)作物

總播種面積＃糧食糧食單產(chǎn)（kg/hm^2）＃稻谷＃豆類＃稻谷Year(起)Grain

(10000tons)RiceBeansTotalSownAreaGrainRice01131.21525.4324.60359081527734047766364078.7811035.35466.4523.32355587127146007639643814.0121082.15484.4227.78346456626068667571954151.1531087.20494.2932.21330717924103697384864510.5141144.57509.5538.11343595725165077493004548.2551168.19521.4342.16344473325012637479494670.406808.40344.9029.24307388021555006723003750.4171088.00491.5935.12313470021958006521304954.9181153.20529.3937.78321506422154076735385205.3691137.20511.3039.83330830022294936820415100.71101156.13518.5741.93335938722438876839075152.35111126.90493.5043.49341308822594136864854987.59121138.54498.0045.04347769422596066869965038.67135035.108145072.827155107.943165140.792175171.649185200.741195228.261205254.368運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下（圖四）：措施二：多項(xiàng)式表六年份糧食

（萬(wàn)噸）農(nóng)作物

總播種面積＃糧食糧食單產(chǎn)（kg/hm^2）＃稻谷＃豆類＃稻谷Year(起)Grain

(10000tons)RiceBeansTotalSownAreaGrainRice01131.21525.4324.60359081527734047766364078.7811035.35466.4523.32355587127146007639643814.0121082.15484.4227.78346456626068667571954151.1531087.20494.2932.21330717924103697384864510.5141144.57509.5538.11343595725165077493004548.2551168.19521.4342.16344473325012637479494670.406808.40344.9029.24307388021555006723003750.4171088.00491.5935.12313470021958006521304954.9181153.20529.3937.78321506422154076735385205.3691137.20511.3039.83330830022294936820415100.71101156.13518.5741.93335938722438876839075152.35111126.90493.5043.49341308822594136864854987.59121138.54498.0045.04347769422596066869965038.67135159.577145217.103155267.418165310.521175346.413185375.093195396.562205410.82運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下：圖五農(nóng)作物單產(chǎn)預(yù)測(cè)總結(jié)：伴伴隨工業(yè)化、都市化的發(fā)展，生活水平的不停提高，生物能源的迅速發(fā)展，糧食消費(fèi)需求將呈剛性增長(zhǎng)，與此同步，耕地非農(nóng)化加速、水資源緊缺、氣候多變及生態(tài)污染等問(wèn)題出現(xiàn)，使糧食安全問(wèn)題備受各界關(guān)注。糧食產(chǎn)量的變化取決于播種面積和糧食單產(chǎn)的變化。耕地有限，這方面的科學(xué)技術(shù)水平在提高但糧食的播種面積變化不會(huì)增長(zhǎng)的很大，兩種措施對(duì)數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)（）和多項(xiàng)式預(yù)測(cè)（Y=）比較趨勢(shì)外推法的對(duì)數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)糧食單產(chǎn)到達(dá)5254.368公斤每公頃。土地需求量預(yù)測(cè)一、糧食需求量預(yù)測(cè)糧食是重要的生活資料和生產(chǎn)資料。對(duì)重慶市未來(lái)拾余年的糧食需求作出較為精確的預(yù)測(cè),不僅為對(duì)的制定本市糧食生產(chǎn)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略所必須,并且對(duì)合理調(diào)整農(nóng)村產(chǎn)業(yè)構(gòu)造,充足有效地運(yùn)用本市農(nóng)業(yè)自然資源和經(jīng)濟(jì)資源有重要意義。由于生活方式和水平不一樣城鎮(zhèn)糧食需求也有不一樣。根據(jù)年鑒城鎮(zhèn)人口的分布狀況和城鎮(zhèn)多種糧食人均需求量折算出總糧食需求量，并運(yùn)用趨勢(shì)外推法的乘冪預(yù)測(cè)和線性預(yù)測(cè)得出的糧食總需求。措施一：乘冪表七年份都市總?cè)丝谵r(nóng)村總?cè)丝冢ㄈf(wàn)）都市人均糧食需求（公斤）農(nóng)村人均糧食需求（公斤）糧食需求量（萬(wàn)噸）2430.20660.89274.04357.82902.452408.39689.52266.92368.20896.732392.38721.45315.51374.001024.642376.18753.92321.19368.981041.392358.40785.83319.34374.791047.652351.88817.28305.24397.701042.922353.44845.43283.33390.62997.042358.35876.97266.90367.62951.842349.67907.38288.88360.051005.472326.92948.69289.89376.521031.752196.451107.00321.11403.621152.112052.171277.64321.01358.311116.562026.191317.25342.18338.171138.781207.431225.801244.451263.371282.571302.051321.821341.87運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下：圖六措施二：線性表八年份都市總?cè)丝谵r(nóng)村總?cè)丝冢ㄈf(wàn)）都市人均糧食需求（公斤）農(nóng)村人均糧食需求（公斤）糧食需求量（萬(wàn)噸）2430.20660.89274.04357.82902.452408.39689.52266.92368.20896.732392.38721.45315.51374.001024.642376.18753.92321.19368.981041.392358.40785.83319.34374.791047.652351.88817.28305.24397.701042.922353.44845.43283.33390.62997.042358.35876.97266.90367.62951.842349.67907.38288.88360.051005.472326.92948.69289.89376.521031.752196.451107.00321.11403.621152.112052.171277.64321.01358.311116.562026.191317.25342.18338.171138.781135.621151.131166.641182.141197.651213.161228.671244.18運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下：圖七商品名稱(都市)糧食（公斤）69696759444746666972肉類150190191160163185186200201213蛋類26242422232424232224魚(yú)類6777889989酒類23212327221718161618奶制品0577767755人均糧食需求量274316319283267289290321321342商品名稱（農(nóng)村）糧食（公斤）210229214206195191197186171160肉類飼料用糧114113123135124119128161135129蛋類飼料用糧11111517141516181413魚(yú)類飼料用糧1122323333奶制品用糧0000000111酒類用糧(公斤)21202131313233353432人均糧食需求量358374375391368360377404358338糧食需求量預(yù)測(cè)總結(jié)：伴隨都市發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅猛增長(zhǎng)人們對(duì)食的規(guī)定也有變化，糧食的規(guī)定變化不大，人們對(duì)肉類的需求量有明顯的增長(zhǎng)。兩種措施乘冪預(yù)測(cè)（）和線性預(yù)測(cè)（）肉類換為糧食比率為1:4，糧食的需求量增長(zhǎng)比較大因此選用數(shù)據(jù)為線性預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)。二、耕地需求量預(yù)測(cè)重慶市自1997年直轄以來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)加速發(fā)展,耕地面積發(fā)生了很大的變化。根據(jù)1997~耕地變更調(diào)查及其他記錄數(shù)據(jù),研究了重慶市耕地資源特性,分析了重慶市直轄以來(lái)耕地面積變化過(guò)程及區(qū)域差異,并定量分析了重慶市耕地變化和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系。成果表明:(1)重慶市人多耕地少,耕地質(zhì)量差,投入少,生產(chǎn)率不高,後備資源局限性。(2)重慶市耕地面積逐漸減少,先緩慢減少,後迅速減少。人均耕地面積也有類似的變化趨勢(shì)。根據(jù)年鑒數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算出復(fù)種指數(shù)，糧食占農(nóng)作物比及糧食自給率、人均糧食需求量得出耕地需求量。措施一：對(duì)數(shù)表九年份人口總量（萬(wàn)）播種面積單產(chǎn)（公斤/公頃）復(fù)種指數(shù)糧食作物占農(nóng)作物比重糧食自給率%人均糧食需求(公斤)耕地需求（萬(wàn)公頃）30914079.001.750.77125.35%291.95205.0630983814.001.750.76115.46%289.46203.8131144151.001.140.75105.61%329.06303.5431304511.001.120.73104.40%332.70294.1231444548.001.200.73109.25%333.20287.7031694670.001.210.73112.01%329.08284.8231993643.001.050.7091.32%311.69339.4632354955.000.980.70114.31%294.20319.8632575205.000.990.69114.69%308.71324.5432765101.000.67110.22%314.98360.6833035152.400.67100.35%348.76375.4533304987.600.66100.93%335.32390.2233435038.700.6599.98%340.60404.97419.73434.47449.20463.93478.66493.37508.08522.78運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下：圖八措施二：線性預(yù)測(cè)表拾年份人口總量（萬(wàn)）播種面積單產(chǎn)（公斤/公頃）復(fù)種指數(shù)糧食作物占農(nóng)作物比重糧食自給率%人均糧食需求(公斤)耕地需求（萬(wàn)公頃）30914079.001.750.77125.35%291.95205.0630983814.001.750.76115.46%289.46203.8131144151.001.140.75105.61%329.06303.5431304511.001.120.73104.40%332.70294.1231444548.001.200.73109.25%333.20287.7031694670.001.210.73112.01%329.08284.8231993643.001.050.7091.32%311.69339.4632354955.000.980.70114.31%294.20319.8632575205.000.990.69114.69%308.71324.5432765101.000.67110.22%314.98358.2933035152.400.67100.35%348.76373.1033304987.600.66100.93%335.32387.9133435038.700.6599.98%340.60402.72417.53432.34447.15461.96476.77491.58506.39521.20運(yùn)用excel對(duì)x和y兩列數(shù)據(jù)做散點(diǎn)圖，其散點(diǎn)圖形狀如下：圖九耕地需求預(yù)測(cè)總結(jié)：人口數(shù)量還在增長(zhǎng)，不過(guò)增長(zhǎng)速率減慢，耕地需求量增長(zhǎng)，不過(guò)耕地需求量增長(zhǎng)的不會(huì)尤其快對(duì)數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)（）和線性預(yù)測(cè)（）差異不大，的耕地需求量幾乎相等兩種措施都比較合適。計(jì)算公式：S——耕地需求量、L——人口總數(shù)、D——人均糧食需求量、r——糧食自給率、m——糧食播種面積單產(chǎn)、n——糧總比、k——復(fù)種指數(shù)三、建設(shè)用地面積預(yù)測(cè)重慶未來(lái)拾年對(duì)都市建設(shè)用地面積需求仍然旺盛，這是與重慶整體經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢(shì)和都市建設(shè)環(huán)境相匹配的。重慶一直都把建設(shè)成為西部政治、文化和金融中心的現(xiàn)代化都市作為都市建設(shè)目的，都市的現(xiàn)代化意味著都市的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、社會(huì)服務(wù)、環(huán)境質(zhì)量和經(jīng)濟(jì)水平等各方面都到達(dá)一種相稱高的水平，這需要有大量的都市土地作支撐。年鑒中有建設(shè)用地面積的數(shù)據(jù)，在基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)上直接根據(jù)建設(shè)面積數(shù)據(jù)用趨勢(shì)外推法的乘冪預(yù)測(cè)和線性預(yù)測(cè)。措施一：乘冪表拾一年份年數(shù)建設(shè)用地面積（公頃）1439.222421.663491.894550.615555.976705.047778.518872.809933.0410986.38111091.671