紡織服裝行業(yè)2024中報總結：景氣度的延續(xù)高質量的開始

224H11+3.92+12.69Q2-3.8424H1-21.9224H16.94 32.89Q24.55 24.28

?—— 24H1 /?—— 24H120H1~23H119H119H119H124H112

301板塊景氣度把握424H14.7

231pct3.7

238.21Q242024

1~2

5.520195.82Q242024 7 3.582023H12 3.55 9.32023710%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月

10月

11月

12月20192023202416%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月2019202320245分類年初至今2024-072024-062024-052024-042024-032024-023.5%2.7%2.0%3.7%2.3%3.1%5.5%9.6%9.9%10.8%9.3%8.5%11.0%9.0%5.6%6.1%6.1%6.5%6.4%5.8%6.9%社會消費品零售總額糧油、食品類飲料類煙酒類8.7%-0.1%-0.1%7.7%8.4%9.4%13.7%家用電器和音像器材類2.3%-2.4%-2.4%12.9%4.5%5.8%5.7%0.5%-5.2%-1.9%4.4%-2.0%1.9%-1.0%-10.4%-3.7%-11.0%-0.1%3.8%3.2%5.0%0.3%-6.1%-14.6%18.7%-2.7%2.2%4.0%服裝、鞋帽、針紡織品類金銀珠寶類化妝品類日用品類2.3%2.1%0.3%7.7%4.4%3.5%-0.7%文化辦公用品類-5.3%-2.4%-8.5%4.3%-4.4%-6.6%-8.8%家具類2.0%-1.1%1.1%4.8%1.2%0.2%4.6%6+3.92+12.69Q2-3.8424H1-21.924H12Q2414pct\24pct1H242Q24細分板塊公司名稱收入增速（%）利潤增速（%）收入增速超額（pct）利潤增速超額（pct）收入是否超額利潤是否超額24H124Q224H124Q224H124Q224H124Q224H124H1高端服飾比音勒芬15.010.515.31.711.114.32.623.6是是報喜鳥0.4-4.5-15.6-38.3-3.6-0.7-28.3-16.4否否女裝歌力思5.5-1.1-46.6-52.91.62.8-59.3-31.0是否地素時尚-9.5-7.1-27.5-21.0-13.4-3.3-40.20.9否否錦泓集團-1.6-2.03.1-22.4-5.51.8-9.6-0.5否否家紡富安娜2.80.5-0.6-11.7-1.14.3-13.310.2否否羅萊生活-14.3-16.3-44.3-35.7-18.2-12.5-57.0-13.8否否水星家紡0.5-8.9-13.9-38.6-3.4-5.1-26.6-16.7否否大眾服飾海瀾之家1.5-5.9-2.5-14.4-2.4-2.0-15.27.5否否森馬服飾7.110.17.10.73.213.9-5.522.6是否戶外牧高笛-2.9-7.4-18.4-30.2-6.9-3.6-31.1-8.3否否三夫戶外-8.8-7.5-28.0154.3-12.7-3.6-40.6176.2否否運動服飾安踏體育13.862.69.949.9是是李寧2.3-8.0-1.6-20.7否否724H16.9432.89Q24.55

24.28細分板塊公司名稱收入增速（%）利潤增速（%）收入增速超額（pct）利潤增速超額（pct）收入是否超額利潤是否超額24H124Q224H124Q224H124Q224H124Q224H124H1輔料偉星股份25.6320.037.836.218.6315.44.911.9是是配件制造健盛集團5.51.533.8-1.8-1.4-3.00.9-26.1否是開潤股份17.612.8230.1341.010.78.3197.3316.7是是上游制造新澳股份10.18.44.53.43.23.9-28.4-20.9是否百隆東方23.924.3-14.8-19.316.919.7-47.7-43.6是否戶外制造揚州金泉-15.6-11.9-43.8-52.4-22.5-16.4-76.6-76.6否否浙江自然13.212.6-16.416.46.28.1-49.3-7.9是否鞋服制造華利集團24.520.829.011.917.616.3-3.8-12.3是否申洲國際12.237.85.34.9是是九興控股8.065.81.132.9是是802

利潤表端：篩選高景氣、高質量標的924H1/24H119H120H1~23H120H1~23H119H119H120H1-23H119H120H1~23H124H1101+131.53%24H1+30.75%+55.64%101.79%+22.02%+93.67%2-14.78%+5.45%+23.89%-38.44%公司名稱24H1收入Y24H1歸母凈利潤YOY295.65開潤股份探路者 27.5117.62230.14迎豐股份6.01臺華新材潯興股份55.6430.75富春染織194.85131.53101.7993.6722.02泰慕士 20.6977.86孚日股份2.0175.16安踏體育62.62浪莎股份13.809.8436.35公司名稱收入YOY歸母凈利潤YOY富安娜2.79-0.59海瀾之家1.53-2.54李寧2.33-7.98嘉欣絲綢12.28-9.58宏達高科10.46-12.41水星家紡0.52-13.89百隆東方23.89-14.78夜光明8.34-36.10興業(yè)科技5.45-38.44華紡股份2.53-55.13113-2.92%+121.58%4公司名稱4H1收入YO24H1歸母凈利潤YOY美邦服飾-25.80648.34欣龍控股-3.96267.65華升股份-12.63168.78裕元集團-2.92121.58美爾雅-7.4259.40ST摩登-29.0458.24酷特智能-3.3921.06七匹狼-4.9018.43聚杰微纖-15.3012.17公司名稱收入YOY歸母凈利潤YOY嘉曼服飾-8.30-4.10夢潔股份-13.78-5.18紅豆股份-1.33-5.77江南高纖-20.68-8.66雅戈爾-2.75-9.68牧高笛-2.95-18.42魯泰A-0.35-23.50華孚時尚-15.87-44.9612開潤股份華升股份臺華新材-12.63 168.7855.64131.53裕元集團潯興股份九興控股-2.92 121.5830.75 101.798.02 65.7735.19 172.538.96150.79安踏體育酷特智能13.80 62.62-3.39 21.06129.97 210.99-4.00 159.08七匹狼比音勒芬-4.90 18.4315.02 15.257.9251.02116.58 175.59公司名稱較23H1同比增速收入 歸母凈利潤17.62 230.14較19H1同比增速收入 歸母凈利潤91.81 117.91-38.11 67.31165.01 192.88-15.90 18.07較20H1-23H1平均值增速收入 歸母凈利潤51.97 246.70-27.52 103.8391.31 130.91-3.64 181.5628.66 111.2719.26 175.5244.95 123.256.7870.73-0.61 110.2551.86 71.56龍頭股份欣龍控股5.30 291.78-3.96 267.65浙文影業(yè)眾望布藝10.49 30.2314.18 20.60公司名稱較23H1同比增速收入

歸母凈利潤探路者 27.51 295.65較19H1同比增速收入

歸母凈利潤138.32 4.45-47.21 108.97-36.29 88.49-4.02 57.5628.66 19.83較20H1-23H1平均值增速收入 歸母凈利潤64.10 -487.36-34.23 -265.07-47.89 -134.5033.63 -159.056.50 -23.1413322H123H124H1424H1

迎豐股份孚日股份浪莎股份恒輝安防森馬服飾航民股份公司名稱較23H1同比增速收入 歸母凈利潤6.01 194.852.0175.16美爾雅 -7.42

59.409.8436.3516.5117.08安奈兒 -16.29

15.927.117.1419.776.44較19H1同比增速收入 歸母凈利潤86.61 -39.845.32-14.2633.26-162.5834.92-5.0836.64-2.98-30.11 -153.433.85-23.4961.58-7.75較20H1-23H1平均值增速收入 歸母凈利潤41.90 29.588.8144.28-3.14 64.7717.23 13.6621.78 3.38-31.76 47.811.5769.1140.9811.73美邦服飾華生科技收入

歸母凈利潤

收入

歸母凈利潤

收入

歸母凈利潤-25.80 648.34 -74.14 -155.68 -61.10 -125.6864.25 65.77 15.60 -6.41 -2.09 -31.85ST摩登鳳竹紡織-29.04

58.24

-63.09

-298.14

-42.45

-682.504.66

38.69

-9.84

-65.90

-10.68

-59.68康隆達0.26 6.16 50.20 -215.08 27.24 -384.06公司名稱較23H1同比增速 較19H1同比增速 較20H1-23H1平均值增速14富安娜海瀾之家嘉曼服飾夢潔股份紅豆股份江南高纖宏達高科百隆東方魯泰A興業(yè)科技公司名稱較23H1同比增速收入 歸母凈利潤2.79 -0.591.53 -2.54-8.30 -4.10-13.78 -5.18-1.33 -5.77-20.68 -8.6610.46 -12.4123.89 -14.78-0.35 -23.505.45 -38.44較19H1同比增速收入 歸母凈利潤18.84 40.7840.33 -23.0046.24 76.23-2.79 -75.76-11.59 -53.35-51.64 -22.1411.23 6.7939.26 3.70-11.14 -58.7980.17 -17.58較20H1-23H1平均值增速收入 歸母凈利潤4.27 7.9316.76 17.881.87 30.12-10.62 13.89-3.39 -36.71-43.11 -70.7610.45 -16.5416.17 -46.376.03 -25.7359.16 -12.811503

資產(chǎn)負債表端：存貨健康，開店延續(xù)1624H12.9318.3124H16.5522.343.28存貨絕對值及同比增速(單位:億元，%)服裝家紡公司名稱2023H12024H1同比增速羅萊生活15.6912.82-18.31%牧高笛5.304.61-13.10%森馬服飾31.7528.51-10.18%錦泓集團9.208.37-8.96%報喜鳥10.8610.75-1.05%地素時尚4.264.577.33%李寧21.2023.139.12%比音勒芬6.887.6310.97%富安娜7.368.1811.09%三夫戶外3.814.2712.11%水星家紡9.5910.8212.76%海瀾之家78.2695.5322.07%安踏體育64.8780.1323.52%歌力思7.119.3831.98%服裝家紡行業(yè)731.64710.19-2.93%存貨絕對值及同比增速(單位:億元，%)紡織制造證券名稱2023H12024H1同比增速百隆東方54.6442.43-22.34%新澳股份18.8718.25-3.28%九興控股14.2214.743.66%申洲國際63.1966.945.93%華利集團28.0030.047.29%健盛集團5.466.7423.38%浙江自然1.601.9924.83%偉星股份6.037.7829.02%揚州金泉1.001.3131.21%開潤股份3.957.2182.84%紡織制造行業(yè)493.61525.976.55%1724

H1124.71Q2182.49

24H12032.56%8024

H155.

32Q2155.74證券名稱2023H12024H1同比增速2023Q22024Q2同比增速牧高笛0.340.060.190.02三夫戶外0.080.03-81.86%-65.17%-0.020.00-88.89%-105.56%比音勒芬7.917.131.79報喜鳥2.002.961.47-62.60%-26.64%1.030.72-74.90%-29.70%地素時尚0.260.210.080.05歌力思0.39-17.71%4.54%0.180.17-38.57%-1.25%海瀾之家2.560.412.694.84%0.171.58錦泓集團0.190.21-0.030.10827.59%-503.95%安踏體育6.648.9110.88%34.19%------羅萊生活0.891.560.150.72378.63%森馬服飾0.591.530.430.5427.58%富安娜0.040.150.000.02402.04%水星家紡0.150.600.050.44876.82%李寧6.71--74.32%157.30%285.05%306.97%--------124.71%19.0253.72182.49%證券名稱 2023H12024H12024Q2同比增速百隆東方4.400.01同比增速 2023Q2-99.70% 3.690.00-100.03%開潤股份0.21-38.08%偉星股份0.713.320.433.11-39.50% 0.34-6.20% 1.331.23-7.81%九興控股1.661.74------揚州金泉0.100.130.080.03-59.67%華利集團4.847.893.454.6133.43%浙江自然0.480.310.4545.18%新澳股份1.501.271.8848.19%健盛集團0.190.884.400.974.85%26.77%62.87%81.28%192.73%413.75%0.010.705486.40%申洲國際6.27----------44.1519.73-55.32%63.5228.11-155.74%資本支出絕對值及同比增速（單位：億元，%）紡織制造服裝家紡行業(yè) 30.40 68.31服裝家紡紡織制造行業(yè)服裝家紡門店數(shù)量及同比增速（單位：家，

）證券名稱20232024H1凈變動增速三夫戶外5447-7-12.96%地素時尚1037977-60-5.79%錦泓集團12961260-36-2.78%羅萊生活27302690-40-1.47%歌力思652645-7-1.07%李寧7668767790.12%牧高笛21121210.47%報喜62%比音勒芬1255126380.64%安踏體育1215412242880.72%海瀾之家68776957801.16%富安48%森馬服飾793781402032.56%合計2871804

超預期個股梳理192024H125.57 22.9632.2

14.9637.79 4.1636.17

3.3833.65

4.0131.062024H1; Q23.251) 24H1///+24.0 /+27.1 /+23.2 /+52.254.8/40.4/3.3 /1.52)23H1/+24.8/+27.267/331):24H1+0.58pct41.80/+0.34pct/+0.27pct24H2)42.89 /42.09:24H1-0.95pct

20.06/ / /13.6pct

70.7+0.12/-0.68/-0.25/-0.14pct7.97 /9.07 /3.61

/-0.593):24H119871226 4):24H1+1.6pct18.1120項目 2023A2024E2025E2026E營業(yè)收入（億元） 39.0745.9152.5959.84營業(yè)收入增長率（%） 8%18%15%14%歸母凈利潤（億元） 5.586.847.868.99歸母凈利潤增長率（%） 14%23%15%14%攤薄每股收益（元/股） 0.530.590.670.77每股經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流凈額（元/股） 0.610.790.850.95ROE（%） 17%15%16%17%PE（倍） 25.3321.1518.4016.09PB（倍） 2.943.082.852.63212024H1337.413.8(AMER)77.262.661.617.0

EPS2.7550.12024H11.18160.77

(+13.5

)47.7(-0.1pct)Q1/Q2/DTC:DTC//89.37/55.67/15.73+10.5/+20.1/+8.555.6/34.6/9.8/7073 (+20)2831( +53 )2024H1FILA/1981

(

+9

)130.56 (+6.8 )20 +46

(+41.8

)38.7

(-2.6pct)

Q1/Q213.6 (+2.7pct)3050

+/197/160

(2024H1+10/-4

)1))2020( Amer)

18.3

(+0.5pct.)202064.1

(+0.8pct.)2)25.7

(/FILA/56.6 /70.2 /72.7+0.8pct./+1pct./-0.7pct.FILA3)21.8 /28.6 /29.9+0.8pct/-1.1pct/-0.4pct/FILA/FILA222023FILA1DescenteKolon營業(yè)收入（億元） 626.61702.70786.20873.84營業(yè)收入增長率（%） 16%12%12%11%歸母凈利潤（億元） 102.36133.79139.31157.58歸母凈利潤增長率（%） 35%31%4%13%攤薄每股收益（元/股） 3.604.724.925.56每股經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流凈額（元/股） 6.935.466.306.35ROE（%） 20%22%20%21%PE（倍） 22.6116.2615.6213.80PB（倍） 4.063.142.712.36項目2023A2024E2025E2026E232024H124H1129.812.2:92.1+7.671;+2021.3 ;9.0+47.47.0 ;9.950.792.5+9.4+4.471.316.3 ;18.827.6+12.225.3+2.719.5 ;37.221.2+20.0+27.028.72024H129 (+6.6pct)2024H12024Q29.4(-0.47pct)30/ /0.65

(-0.05pct)/7.3

(-0.6pct)/1.47 (+0.2pct)22.6

(+4.2pct)2024H12.1: 2024H19543.6/7516.5

( 0.7/1.7

)66.9 ( 2023 +9.3 )/2023 +7/-1100.8 (-13.1

)2024H11 1255 256

66.910124/H134.033.9

Adidas23.323.820;37.221.227營業(yè)收入（億元） 249.96282.24316.68352.29營業(yè)收入增長率（%） -10%13%12%11%歸母凈利潤（億元