2024年消費品行業(yè)展望報告（英文版）-德勤

Deloitte.

2024consumerproducts

industryoutlook

Asprice-takingrunsitscourse,theindustrymayturnto‘profitablevolume’

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

Contents

Executivesummary3

Methodology4

WhatsetProfitableGrowersapart5

Theprice-focusederaislikelyover7

Theprofitablevolumeplaybook8

Volume8

Profitability9

Anagendaforaction12

Outlookdeepdives13

Authorsandacknowledgments21

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

Executivesummary

So,whatnewgrowthformulamightcutthetension?Ifpricehas

runitscourse,companiesmayneedtopivottovolume.Butnotallvolumeisequal.CompaniesthataspiretoProfitableGrowerstatusin2024mightconsiderprofitablevolume.Thatmeansexecutingaplanthatcarefullygrowsvolumewithaninnovativeandmore

profitableproductmixwhileretainingasmuchpricingaspractical.

Whatfollowsisourprofitablevolumeplaybook,derivedfrom

financialperformanceandearningstranscriptanalysis,subject-matterspecialistinterviews,andaglobalsurveyof250consumerproductexecutives.Itscomponentsincludemovestoboostbothvolumeandprofitability:

Volume

?Targetedadvertisingandpromotion

?Precisiongrowthmanagement

?OpportunisticM&A

Profitability

?Arebalancedmix

?Strategicinnovation

?Enhancedoperationsandsupplychain

Ofcourse,thesefactorsareintertwined:mixaffectsprice,price

affectsvolume,andsoon.Thekeyisfindingtherightbalanceamongthemtodriveprofitablevolume.Eachleadershipteamacrossthe

C-suiteshouldownpartoftheagendatohitthemark(seefunction-basedquestionsinDeloitte’s‘

agendaforaction

’).

Whilewinningapproachesto2024mayrevolvearound

fundamentalslikeprice,volume,andmix,leaderswillalsolikely

confrontnewerchallengeslikeGenerativeAI,GLP-1(i.e.,thenewweight-lossdrugs),oremergingregulationsliketheCorporate

SustainabilityReportingDirective(CSRD).Ouroutlookconcludeswithaseriesof

deepdives

thatincludeamacroeconomicoutlook,aviewfromeachoftheindustry’ssubsectors,executive

perspectivesonGenerativeAIandGLP-1,areviewofemergingregulations,adatabankofadditionalsurveyresults,andaviewofthemegatrendsaffectingtheindustry’slong-termfuture.

Forthepastfewyears,theplaybookfor

consumerproductcompanies—spanningfoodandbeverage,householdgoods,

personalcare,andapparel—reliedonprice-taking.Inputcostsrosedramatically,1so

pricehadtofollow—tonear-unprecedentedlevels.2Companiesdidalltheycouldto

controlcoststolimitpass-through,3andpremiumization4helpedjustifywhattheycharged.Butthenameofthegamewasprice.

Thatstrategyseemstohaveworkedforseveralcompanies.Lookingatthehighestperformersamongtheglobaltop100companiesintheconsumerproductsindustrybyrevenue,weseesomewereabletoraisepricesasmuchas,ifnotmorethan,others,withsmallerhitstovolumeandmoremargingrowth(see

methodology

).Thelargergroupofthese“ProfitableGrowers,”whichoutperformsonfive-yearrevenuegrowthandreturnonassets(ROA),revealsimportant

lessonsaboutpricingpower,revenuegrowthmanagement(RGM),innovation,supplychainsmarts,andawillingnesstopruneand

refreshtheirbusinessportfolioandproductsetperpetually.

Thoselessonswilllikelybeimportantin2024,buttheworldis

changing.Furthersignificantpriceincreasesmightnotbepossibleinanuncertaineconomywhereretailersarepushingbackand

consumersareunwillingtopaymoreandoftentradedown.5Theindustrymayneedtolookforanewapproach.

Navigatingawayfromprice-takingtoadifferentgrowthformulamaybecreatingtensionintheindustry’sviewoftheyearahead.Theconsumerproductexecutiveswesurveyedarequitebullishontheindustry’sprospectsandtheircompany’sstrategyand

performance.However,theiroptimismstartstowanewhen

pressedontheirabilitytosucceedonthespecifics—areaslike

unitvolume,pricing,orabilitytogrowmargins.Theyarealso

decidedlyrealistsregardinggeopoliticsanddon’tfeelparticularlyoptimisticabouttheglobaleconomydespiteastrongerendingto2023thanmanyexpected(see

themacroeconomicoutlook

fromDeloitteGlobalChiefEconomist,IraKalish).

3

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

4

Methodology

Weanalyzedaworldwidesetofthelargest100publicconsumerproductcompaniesby

revenue,drawnfromS&PCapitalIQandfilteredforindustrydefinitionalfit(e.g.,excludinghigh-endluxury,tobacco,conglomerateswithlessthan50%ofrevenuefromconsumer

products).Wethenusedafive-yearcompositepercentileindexofbothtop-linegrowthandefficientuseofassets(measuredinreturnonassets)toassessrelativesuccess.

Deloittealsoconductedaglobalsurveyof250consumerproductsexecutivesspanning

foodandbeverage,householdgoods,personalcare,andapparel.Allrespondentswere

seniordecision-makersatcompanieswithmorethan$500millioninrevenue(mostabove$5billion).Theyweresourcedproportionallytoroughlymatchthegeographicmarketsandsubsectorsinthetop100globalconsumerproductscompanyfinancialanalysis(figure1).

Surveyquestionsweredevelopedthroughananalysisoftrendingtopicsfoundincompanyreports,earningscalltranscripts,andanalystreports,aswellasthroughexploratorysurveysandinterviewswithfinancialanalysts,investors,andDeloitteleaders.Wealsodeployed

manyofthesesamemethodstodeterminewhathigh-performingcompanies(onrevenueandROAindexes)weredoingdifferentlyfromthelower-performingcompaniesinour

financialanalysis.

Figure1:Top100globalconsumerproductcompaniesbysubsectorandgeography

Restof

Europe

12

pe

UK

4

France

5

Restof

APAC14

Others4

APAC

31%

Japan11

North

America

40%United

States35

China6

Canada2

Mexico3

Beautyandpersonalcare10

Fashionand

apparel

13

Foodandbeverages

67

Householdproducts

10

Note:Onecompanywasremovedfromsubsequentanalysisgivenrecent(2022)listingandoutsizedgrowth.Weanalyzedaperiodoffiveyearstogetagoodcoverageofpre-pandemic,pandemic,andpost-pandemic/highinflationperiods.

Source:Analysisofthetop100consumerproductcompaniesbasedonFY22revenuefromS&PCapitalIQ.

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

5

WhatsetProfitableGrowersapart

Weanalyzed100consumerproductscompanies6fromaroundtheglobetoidentifythosethatoutperformedtheirpeersonrevenuegrowthandROAacrossthefiveyearsthroughfiscalyear2022(figure2).Thelatterhalfofthis

periodwascharacterizedbyprice-taking,aspandemic-drivendemand,supplychainwoes,andhighinflationacrosstheeconomysettheconditionsforhigherprices.

Figure2:Assessingcompaniesonfiveyearsofrevenuegrowthandreturnonassets

Foodandbeverages

Fashionandapparel

Beautyandpersonalcare

Householdproducts

Sizeofbubble=FY2022revenue

Revenuegrowth:FY2018–2022compositepercentileindex

Under-utilizedgrowers

Pro?tablegrowers

Underperformers

E?cientperformers

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

0102030405060708090100

Returnonassets:FY2018–2022compositepercentileindex

Note:Onecompanywasremovedfromsubsequentanalysisgivenrecent(2022)listingandoutsizedgrowth.Weanalyzedaperiodoffiveyearstogetagoodcoverageofpre-pandemic,pandemic,andpost-pandemic/highinflationperiods.

Source:Analysisofthetop100consumerproductcompaniesbasedonFY22revenuefromS&PCapitalIQ.

Notably,theupper-right-quadrantcompanies—theProfitableGrowerssoughtoutbyinvestors—comefroma

cross-sectionofcategories,countries,andsizes,makingtheirexampleapplicableacrosstheindustry.Theyalsooutperformedonotherimportantdimensions,includingtotalshareholderreturn(TSR),price-to-equityratio(P/E),andprofitmargin7(figure3).

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

6

Averagerevenuegrowth:FY2018–FY2022

6.9%

Figure3:Bythenumbers

Under-utilizedgrowersProfitablegrowers

Numberofcompanies21

Avg.annualrevenuegrowth11.6%

Avg.ROA4.1%

Numberofcompanies26

Avg.annualrevenuegrowth11.6%

Avg.ROA9.6%

Avg.EBITDAmargin

Avg.ROIC

Avg.forwardP/EAvg.5-yr.TSR

12.3%3.6%16.51%

Avg.EBITDAmargin

Avg.ROIC

Avg.forwardP/EAvg.5-yr.TSR

20%8.6% 21.210.3%

Numberofcompanies31

Avg.annualrevenuegrowth2.2%

Avg.ROA3.7%

Numberofcompanies21

Avg.annualrevenuegrowth3.2%

Avg.ROA8.4%

Avg.EBITDAmargin

Avg.ROIC

Avg.forwardP/EAvg.5-yr.TSR

14.5%1.9%19.4

-1.4%

Avg.EBITDAmargin

Avg.ROIC

Avg.forwardP/EAvg.5-yr.TSR

20.2%5.8%19.80.9%

UnderperformersEfficientperformers

6.3%

Averagereturnonassets:FY2018–FY2022

Note:Average=averagerevenuegrowthorROAforFY2018–2022fortheuniverseselected.Onewasremovedfromanalysisasanoutliergivenrecent(2022)listingandoutsizedgrowth.LatestdateforTSR&Fwd.P/E:Dec31,2022.Source:Analysisoftop100CPGcompaniesbasedonFY22revenuefromS&PCapitalIQ.

ProfitableGrowers’keystosuccess

Acloselookatfinancialreports,calltranscripts,analystassessments,andsurveydataforcompaniesmostclosely

alignedtotheprofiles8highlightsseveralvitalcharacteristicssharedbyProfitableGrowers.Whilethesestrategies

ledProfitableGrowerstosuccessduringthefiveyearsthrough2022,severalofthemwilllikelyremainpowerful

componentsoftheprofitablevolumeplaybookgoingforward.Incontrast,lower-performingcompaniesinourfinancialanalysismadedifferentmoves:

ProfitableGrowers

?Morepricingpower.ProfitableGrowerscouldraisepricesasmuchasormorethanothercompanieswhilebettermaintainingvolumeandincreasingprofits.9

?Moreinvestmentintheircorebrandstogainpricingpower.ProfitableGrowers’five-yearaveragepercentageofrevenuespentonsalesandmarketingwasmorethan110basispointshigher

thanothers.10

?ImprovedRGMsystems.Inoursurvey,66%ofcompanies

alignedtoourProfitableGrowersprofileinvestedinRGMsystemsversus49%ofcompaniesnotgrowingbothrevenueandprofit

(i.e.,allothercompanies).Inadditiontohelpingsetpricing,thesesystemsgaveProfitableGrowerstheanalyticstoadjusttheirprice-

packarchitecture(68%didso,comparedto51%ofallothercompanies).

?Embracedaproductinnovation-drivenstrategytosupportpricesandmargins.11

?Focusedonsupplychainstabilityandenhanceddatacapabilities(73%versus60%).

?Perpetualportfoliotransformation,quicklydivesting

underperformersfromentirebusinesslinestoindividualSKUs.12

Othercompanies

?Failedtorespondtotheconsumer-demandpivotfrom

goodstoservicesspending.Theyendedupwithconsiderableexcessinventory,withbothretailersandintheirwarehouses,thattheythenhadtodiscount.

?Failedtoinvestappropriatelyininnovation,withmoremarketmissesandlessbenefitfrompremiumization.

?Poorprocurementmanagementandhedgingstrategiesleftthesecompaniesrelativelyexposedtohighercommodityprices.

?Stuckinslowergrowthcategorieswithmoreprivate-labelcompetition.

?MoredifficultyincorporatingacquisitionsthanourProfitableGrowersexperienced.

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

7

Theprice-focusederaislikelyover

Surveyedconsumerproductcompaniesareshiftingawayfromprice:Just2%emphasizepricefor2024,andhalfdon’tthinktheycancountonpriceasasourceofgrowth(figure4).Weseethreereasonswhysignificantprice-takingislikelycomingtoanend:

Consumersarelesswillingandabletopay.13Someareforcedtobecomemore“choiceful”withtheirpurchases.14Industryexecutivesinoursurveycalledoutconsumerbifurcationintohavesandhave-nots(46%)anddecreasedwillingnesstopayhigherprices(33%)astwoofthetopthreemostsignificantconsumerchallengesfor2024.Fewexecutivesthoughttheycouldcontinuetoraisepriceswithoutmateriallydecreasingconsumerdemand.

Higherpricescreatednewcompetitionfromunexpected

substitutes.Pricehasincreasedsomuchonmanyitems,especiallyinfoodandbeverage,thatconsumersmaybelookingtofulfill

oldneedsinnewways—creatingunexpectedcompetitionfor

consumerproductcompanies.Forinstance,ifadeliveredpizza

fromarestaurantisascheapasorcheaperthanonefromthe

grocer’sfreezeraisle,spendingmayshift.Almostsevenin10foodandbeverageexecutives(68%)expectincreasedcompetitionfromfastfoodandquick-serverestaurants.(Formoresubsector-specificfindings,see

Dive2

.)

Retailersmayhavehadenoughofpriceraises.Throughthe

heightsofinflation,retailersletsignificantpriceincreasespass

throughwithsomesympathy.Butthatleniencycouldhavebeenaonce-in-a-generation(relatively)freepass.15Fourin10executivesinoursurveyagreethatretailerswouldpushbackonanymeaningfulpriceincreasesin2024.

Figure4:Theindustryshiftsfrompricetoprofitablevolume

Q.Ittakesacombinationofprice,volume,andproductmixtodriveprofitablegrowth.Knowingthateachcomponentisimportant,whichofthethreewillreceivethemost

emphasisinyourstrategyfor2024?

Raiseprice

2%

Increaseunitvolume

36%

Shiftthemixtomoreprofitableproductsandpacksizes

62%

Source:BasedonDeloitte’sanalysisofexecutivesurveysforthe2024ConsumerProductsIndustryOutlook(N=250).

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

8

Theprofitablevolumeplaybook

Theprofitablevolumeplaybookisaboutcarefullygrowingvolumewithaninnovativeandmoreprofitableproductmixwhileretainingasmuchpricingaspractical.

Volume

Inthepastfewyears,volumesufferedfromhigherpricesandreducedadvertisingand

promotion.16Somecompaniesfacedsupplyandproductionconstraintsthatmade

promotionalspendingunproductive.Butnow,sevenin10(72%)executivessaidtheymustincreasetheirunitvolumetomeettheir2024performancegoals.

Additionally,sixin10executivesinoursurveyrecentlymadeasignificantexpansionintheirproductioncapacity.Companiesthatexpandedproductioncapacitylikelywillhaveadditionalincentivetodowhatittakestokeepvolumeshightospreadthatcost.

1.Targetedadvertisingandpromotion

In2024,weexpectthependulumtoswingbacktomorespendingonmarketing.Overthecomingyear,68%oftheexecutiveswesurveyedsaidtheircompanieswillincreaseadvertisingandmarketing

spendingasapercentageofrevenue,while64%willbedoingmorepromotionalspending.Two-thirdsofexecutives(66%)planto

emphasizetheircompany’sexistingcorebrandsintheirmarketingovernewbrandintroductions—atooltomaintainpricingpower.

Amajorityalsoplantoincreasetheproportionofmarketingdollarsspentondigitalmediumsaspartoftheireffortstoincreasevolume.Digitalmediumsalsoenablewhatour“

Futureoftheconsumer

industry

”researchidentifiesasashiftfrommasstomicro—fromasupply-drivenapproachtoonedrivenbydemand(formore

information,see

Dive3

).Highlypersonalizeddigitalmarketingandpromotionshouldyieldhigherreturnoninvestment(ROI),akeyconsiderationwhensomeresearchsuggeststhatreturnonad

spendingisnowhardertocomeby.17

It’sworthnotingthatsomeanalyststhinkcompaniesmaypanic

aboutvolumeandpromotetoomuch.Wedon’tsharethatconcern.Forward-thinkingcompanieswillshowrestraintandmanagetheirvolumegoalswithfinesse.

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

Figure5:Mentionsofrevenuegrowthmanagementinearningsdocumentsfortheglobaltop

100consumerproductscompaniesbyrevenuehavedoubled.

Mentionfrequencyamongthetop100consumerproductscompaniesbyrevenue

160

140

120

Numberofmentions

100

80

60

40

20

0

RGM

Q1

2018

Q2Q3Q4Q1

2019

Q2Q3Q4Q1

2020

Q2Q3Q4Q1

2021

Q2Q3Q4Q1

2022

Q2Q3Q4Q1

2023

Q2Q3

Source:Deloitteanalysisofearningscalltranscriptsforthetop100globalconsumerproductcompaniesfrom

2018throughQ32023.FrequencycountswereobtainedthroughAlphaSensequeries.

2.Precisiongrowthmanagement

ManyconsumerproductcompaniesgainedsharperrealizationoftheneedforRGMduringthetumultofthepastfewyears,during

whichtimementionofRGMinearningscallsdoubled18(figure5).

ThedriveforvolumewillputRGM,partofthenewageofalgorithmsandautomation,moresquarelyunderthespotlight.

RGMcapabilitiescanincludepricesettinginthecontextof

competitorsontheshelf,targetedpromotionstrategies,white-

spaceexpansion,changestotheprice-packarchitecture,retailer

profitabilitymanagement,andconsumerperceptionshapingaroundcategories,amongothers.19Almostsixin10executivessurveyed

haveimprovedtheircompany’sRGMcapabilitiesoverthepastthreeyears.Thesamenumbersaysthecapabilitywillplayasignificant

roleintheirsuccessin2024.

GenerativeAImayplayaroleintheseefforts,asRGMwasoneofthetoppotentialusecasesforthetechnology,foundinoursurvey,amongthoseidentifiedbytheDeloitteAIInstitute.20

(SeeDive4

)

3.OpportunisticM&A

Afteradownturnindealmaking,2024couldseethereturnof

M&Aactivity—especiallybyProfitableGrowers.Morethanhalf

(55%)oftheexecutiveswesurveyedthinktherewillbegrowthin

theindustry’stotalacquisitionsintheyearahead.And89%say

expandingbyacquisitionisapriorityfortheircompanyin2024.Infact,morethanathird(36%)ofProfitableGrowerssaygrowthby

acquisitionisoneoftheirverytoppriorities(relativeto28%ofothercompanies).

Therearegoodreasonswhyactivitymightbepickingup,despiteconcernthatUSantitrustauthoritiesappeartobetakinga

moreaggressiveapproach.21Economicuncertaintyandhigher

interestrateshavedecreasedvaluationsforpotentialacquisition

targets,makingthemmoreattractive.22Accordingtoourinvestor

conversations,boarddirectorsincreasinglyaccepttheircompany’slowervaluationsandaremoreopentosales.Highinterestratesmayalsodissuadeprivateequityinvestors,severalofwhichusedebt

fundingforacquisitions.Thatdynamiccangiveconsumerproduct

companieswithstrongcorporatebalancesheetsanadvantagewhencompetingfordeals—and70%ofexecutivesinoursurveyfeeltheirbalancesheetwouldbeaplusinanacquisitionrelativetoprivate

equitycompetition.

Asforthetypeofacquisitionsthey’llpursue,“bolt-on”isusually

oneofthefirstphrasesexecutivesusedininvestorcalls.However,companieswesurveyedseementicedbyacquisitionsthatwould

bringthemtoanew,high-growthbusinessormarket(58%).Othersareinterestedinacquisitionstosupportaverticalintegration

strategy(62%).Wesawsimilarinterestlastyear,especiallyfrom

9

companiesontrackforprofitablegrowth.Verticalintegrationmayhelpcompaniesgaingreatercontroloftheirvaluechain,ensuresupply,andprotectmarginsfrominputcostincreases.

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

10

Profitability

Ofcourse,highervolumenumbersneedtohaveapositiveimpactonprofit.Whileeach

additionalunitsoldhelpstooffsetfixedcosts,productsthatcarryhighermarginscandoitmorequickly.Andifyoucanloweryourfixedcosts,too,allthebetter.That’sespecially

importanttoday,aswetransitionfrominvestorsandmanagementteamspursuingrevenuegrowthatalmostanycosttomorefocusonprofitablegrowth(two-thirdsofoursurvey

respondentsagreethegoalhaschangedtoprofitablegrowth).

1.Arebalancedmix

Consumerproductcompaniesmaypullseveralleverstoproduceamoreprofitableproductmix.Forinstance,theycanshifttheirprice-packarchitecturetobetteraddressconsumerneeds,occasions,

andvaluepointswhileattemptingtoengineerbettermargins.Thisstrategyisespeciallyprevalentinthefoodandbeveragespace,andwithsomehouseholdgoodsandpersonalcareproducts.Overallinoursurveysixin10plantochangetheirprice-packarchitectureintheyearahead.

Somecompaniesarealsoimprovingthemixbydiscardingpoor

performers.In2020and2021,consumerproductcompaniesdidafairamountofSKUrationalizationtofreeproductionlinestomeetdemandfortheirmostessentialproducts.23Butpruningaway

low-performingproductsandbrandscanalsoincreasetheaveragemixmargin.Sixin10(61%)executivessurveyedsaybrandorSKUrationalizationisapriorityfor2024.

Moreradicalchangescaninvolvedivestingentirebrandsorlinesofbusiness.Justoverhalf(52%)ofexecutivesinoursurveysaytheircompanieshavemadeitaregularpracticetodivestlow-performinglinesofbusiness.

Inthelongterm,asweanticipatemoreradicalindustryupheaval

fromlowerbarrierstoentry,companiescanlooktoanimprovedmixthatincludesnewproductsthattakethembeyondtheirtraditionalportfolio.Morethanhalf(57%)oftheexecutiveswesurveyedagreethatthegrowthofcapability-as-a-servicewillbreakdowntraditionalbarrierstoentryanddrivethereconfigurationoftheindustry.

Forexample,considerthehighlyprofitableretailmediaadssome

retailershavestartedsellingintheirdigitalstorefronts.24Meanwhile,64%ofconsumerproductexecutivessayhybridmodelsthat

combinegoods,services,anddigitalexperienceswillincreasinglydriveindustrygrowth.

2.Strategicinnovation

Innovativeproductstendtocommandhighermargins,driving

eightin10executivessurveyedtoincreaseinvestmentsinproductinnovationin2024.

Butthisisn’tnecessarilyasimplestory.Newinvestmentsjoina

backlogofinnovationsthatweredevelopedbutheldbackduringthepandemic.25Gainingshelfspaceinanenvironmentwithlotsof“newandimproved”productscouldprovechallenging.So,whatkindsofinnovationcansucceed?

Premiumization,anessentialstrategyofthepastfewyears,lookssettocontinue.26Thesesuperiorproductstendtocommandhigherprices—alongwithhighermargins.However,itremainstobeseenifconsumersstillhavetheappetitetospend.Companiesshould

considerleavingroomintheirportfoliossoconsumerscantradedowntovalueofferingswithoutleavingthebrand.

Additionally,companiesshouldseeknet-newinnovativeproducts—notjustsuperiorversionsofexistingones—tobreakthroughon

sales.That’sespeciallytruewhenword-of-mouthrecommendationsviasocialmediamakeproductefficacyarguablymoreimportant

thanads.Thisissomethingsurveyedexecutivesintheindustry

recognize,with62%agreeingtheywillneedtobeinnovativein

findingnewersourcesofprofitsaswhohasmoneyandwhatisvaluechanges.

Sustainabilityisanotherareaofferinginnovationopportunities.

Threeinfourexecutivessurveyed(76%)saidtheircompany

embracesa“circulareconomy”model—encouragingthereuse,

recycling,refurbishing,orrepairofgoods.Giventhattwo-thirds

(66%)inoursurveyagreethatconsumerswillincreasinglyinsisttheindustrybecomesmoreresponsible,thistypeofinnovationcouldappealtonewbuyerswhilepotentiallyreducingcosts.

2024consumerproductsindustryoutlook

11

Lookingfurtherahead,newtechnology,acrossseveraltypes,is

transformingconsumerdemand.Nearlytwo-thirds(60%)ofthe

executiveswesurveyedsaytherapidevolutionofITandbiotech

willchangethetraditionalboundariesoftheindustry.Forinstance,ifGLP-1agonistdietdrugsdoturnouttoshiftdemandinfoodand

beverage,traditionalofferingscouldtakea

hit(seeDive5

).Onthe

upside,productinnovationmayencompassnewcompanionofferings—supplementalproteinshakes,probioticfoodsthatcalmnausea,

portion-controlledofferings,etc.—thatarepartofthenewlifestyleforpatientsonthesedrugs.27Theseproductscouldbepersonalized,

aligningwithasignificantindustryshiftfrommass

tomicro.Indeed,62%ofexecutivesinoursurveyagreethattheindustrywillshiftfrommassproductiontopersonalizedproductofferingsovertime.

3.Enhancedoperationsandsupplychain

Companiesshouldprocureinputs,produceproducts,anddistributethemtoretailersasefficientlyaspossible.Profittakesahitif

thesefundamentaltasksaren’tmanagedwellorareimpactedbydisruptionandcan’trecoverquickly.(See

Dive6

fordataoncost-cutting,labor,andmore.)

Itfollowsthatoperationalresilienceremainsakeypriorityin

theprofitablevolumeplaybook.Geopoliticaldisruption,naturaldisasters,laborstrikes—consumerproductcompaniescantakenothingforgrantedin2024regardingtheirabilitytooperate.The

industrycanhopeforthebestbutshouldplanfortheworst,takingstepstoincreaseoperationalresilienceandcontingencyplans.Intheprocess,companiesshouldconsidertakingamoreflexibleapproachtomanagement.

Perhapsunsurprisingly,improvingsupplychainperformanceisatoppriorityofsurveyedexecutiveswhencombiningthosewhosaidit

wasaclearpriority(50%)withthosewhoidentifieditasoneoftheirtoppriorities(48%).CompaniesacrosstheindustrymayconsidertakingacuefromProfitableGro