2024年國(guó)家能源政策報(bào)告-2024-10-宏觀大勢(shì)

StateofEnergyPolicy

2024

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationof

internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEAmembercountries:

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

CzechRepublic

DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIrelandItaly

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

NetherlandsNewZealand

NorwayPolandPortugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazil

China

Egypt

India

IndonesiaKenya

MoroccoSenegal

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Keyfindings

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|1

Keyfindings

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Keyfindings

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Keyfindings

Thelastfouryearsunleashedawaveofnewenergypoliciesthataddressedpressingenergysecurityconcernsandacceleratedtheuptakeofcleanenergy.TheglobaleconomiccrunchtriggeredbytheCovid19pandemicpromptedgovernmentstolaunchnewrecoveryandreliefpackages,withmanyprioritisingcleanenergytransitions.Closeto150countries-coveringcloseto95%ofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionssetforthnew,moreambitiousclimatecommitments,leadingabout50governmentstotightenenergyefficiency,renewablesandemissionsstandardsalongsidethesenewincentivesforcleanenergy.Since2020,cleanenergyinvestmentgrew60%globally.

Energysecurityhasprominentlyreemergedasapriorityforpolicymakers.Russia’sinvasionofUkrainein2022ledtoenergypricespikesglobally,highlightingtherisksposedtointerconnectedenergysystems.Countrieswereremindedanewoftraditionalenergysecurityconcerns,whiletheshifttocleanenergybroughtforthnewones,particularlyintermsofsupplychainconcentrationofkeytechnologiesandthecriticalmineralsessentialtotheirproduction.Disruptionstotraderoutesamidgrowinggeopoliticaltensionsandclimate-inducedextremeweatherarecomplicatingthesituation,exposingenergysystemstonewvulnerabilities.Morethanever,countriesarehavingtoconsiderandadoptnewapproachestobalancetheinterconnectedgoalsofsustainability,affordability,competitivenessandsecurity.

Againstthisbackdrop,theIEAhasproduceditsinauguraleditionofStateofEnergyPolicy.Intendedasa‘first-of-its-kind’globalinventory,thisannualpublicationprovidesuserswiththemostcomprehensiveup-to-dateenergypoliciesbycountriesandsectors,highlightingthemostsubstantialchangesinthepreceding12months.Itdrawsupontheexpertise,insights,andreviewofnumerousinternationalexperts,tocompilemorethan5000policyrecordsacross50keypolicytypesfrommorethan60countries,allavailableinapublicdatabase,the

EnergyPolicyInventory.

Distincttrendsemergefromthiscomprehensivereviewastothetypesofpolicygovernmentsusetobridgethegapstotheirlong-termpledgeswhileensuringenergysecurity,andwherethesepolicieshavegainedtraction.

Governmentincentivesforcleanenergygrewtounprecedentedlevels,andarenowamajordriverforrisingcleanenergyinvestment.Since2020,governmentshaveearmarkedalmostUSD2trillionindirectinvestmentsupportforcleanenergy–nearlytripletheamountcommittedtocleanenergyinresponsetothe2007-08financialcrisis.Some80%ofthisearmarkedfundingisconcentratedinjustthreeregions:China,theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates.Manymeasuresareframedaseffortstoboostcleantechnologydeploymentandtosecurepositionsinemergingindustriesthatpromisetobemajorfuturesourcesofgrowthand

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Keyfindings

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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employment.Newspendingmeasurescontinuetobeapproved.Inthefirsthalfof2024alone,morethan40countriesearmarkedcleanenergysupport,totallingtoUSD290billion.

Governmentinterventionstomanageenergypricespeakedin2022,butaffordabilityremainsakeyconcern.PricespikespromptedbyRussia’sinvasionofUkrainepushedtotalend-useexpenditureonenergytoarecordhighin2022–USD10trillion.Short-termconsumersupportdirectlyfromgovernmentstotalledUSD940billion,mainlyconcentratedinEurope,whileotherpricingregulationsinstitutedbygovernmentsamountedtoUSD2.4trillionworthoffossilfuelsubsidiesaccruingsince2022.Priceshavesincedeclinedandgovernmenthaverolledbackmostemergencyprovisions.Still,allG20countriesmaintainprogrammesthatprovideaffordabilitysupporttocertainconsumers.Suchprogrammesbenefitfromtargetinghouseholdsmostinneedtomanagefiscalburdensandensureafairdistributionofcostsandbenefits–ataskthatonlyone-thirdoftheemergencymeasuresachieved.

Securingcleanenergysupplychainshasbecomeakeypriority,promptinguseofdiversepolicymeasures–fromdirectincentivestotradepolicy.Geographicalconcentrationswithincleanenergysupplychainsremainshigherthanfossilfuelsupply.Acrosskeytechnologies–solarPV,wind,battery,andelectrolyser–atleast80%ofmanufacturingcapacityisconcentratedwithinthetopthreeproducingcountries.Thisrendersglobalsupplychainsvulnerabletodisruptions,whetherduetopolicychangesinindividualcountries,naturaldisasters,technicalfailuresorcorporatedecisions.

Recentpoliciesandstrategieshavedesignatedkeycleanenergytechnologiesandrelatedcommoditiestobeofstrategicimportance,proposingrequirementsortargetsforminimumsharesofdomesticmanufacturing.RecentnotableexamplestheUnitedStatesDefenceProductionActandtheEuropeanUnion’sNetZeroIndustryAct,howeverothercountrieshaveintroducedsimilarpoliciesandtargets.Additionally,governmentdirectsupportavailabletodomesticmanufacturersofthesetechnologiesclimbedtoUSD170billiongloballyinthelastfouryears–nearly10%oftotalgovernmentenergyspendingmobilisedacrossthatperiod.Thelargestportionoftheseincentivesisgoingtoelectricvehicles(EVs),followedbyhydrogenandbatteriesproduction,alongwithcriticalmineralsrefiningandproduction.Since2020,around70%ofthisearmarkedsupportwasconcentratedinadvancedeconomiesandChina,althoughnewspendingisbeingmobilisedinotheremergingmanufacturinghubs,suchasBrazil,IndiaandMalaysia.

Since2020,sharpriseisevidentintrademeasuresrelatingtocleantechnologysupplychains.Overthepast25years,thenumberofnewtrademeasurestargetingbatteries,solarPV,EVs,windturbinesandelectrolysershasincreasedsteadily.Since2020,countriesimplementednearly200tradepoliciestargetingcleanenergytechnology,whereasonly40suchinitiativeswereimplementedinthepreceding5years.Often,thelargestimportersandexportersofthesetechnologiesareattheforefrontofthesechangesintraderules,whichmaywellhaveimplicationsforcleantechnologysupplychains,innovation,competitionandeconomicefficiency.Tariffadjustments,anti-dumpingdutiesandcountervailing

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Keyfindings

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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measures(includingthoserecentlyannouncedbytheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates),accountforcloseto40%ofpolicychangessince2020.Inthatsameperiod,around50newfreetradeagreementsweresigned,ofwhichnearly90%stillextendedpreferentialtariffstocleanenergytechnologies.

Energyperformanceregulationsnowcoverthree-quartersofglobalenergy-relatedemissions.Asof2024,fifteenG20countrieshaveenergyperformanceregulationsinplacecoveringeachkeyenergysector—power,industry,buildingstransportation,andfuelsupply.Thisisasubstantialchangefromjustafewdecadesago.In2000,only5%ofindustrialmotorswerecoveredbyenergyperformancestandards;nowover50%are.Since2020,halfofG20countrieshaveupdatedbuildingenergycodes,affecting70%oftheirsectoremissions.

Since2023,35countries–representingone-fifthofenergy-sectorCO2emissions–passednewenergyregulations.Amongthemostimpactfulupdatestoenergyregulationsincludethelatestfuel-economyandemissionsstandardsforpassengercarsandtrucks,aswellasnewregulationsforGHGemissionsfromfossilfuel-firedpowerplantsintheUnitedStates.Severalmajorfirstsalsowarrantmention:Australiaaddeditsveryfirstfuelefficiencystandardforvehicles,theEuropeanUnionintroducedregulationsonclimate-forcingrefrigerantsusedinappliances(so-calledfluorinatedgreenhousegases[F-gas]regulations);andUkraineestablisheditsfirst-everbiofuelblendingmandate,settostartin2025.

Somepolicieswererolledbacksince2020,buttheirimpactwassmallerthantheincreasedstringencyelsewhere.Notablerollbacksordelayswereappliedtoproposedregulationsbanningthesaleofnewfossilfuelboilersinbuildingsandofinternalcombustionengines(ICE)vehicles,andonphase-outofunabatedcoal.Suchadjustmentswerelargelymotivatedbytheenergycrisisandpublicconcerns.Thereplacementregulationseitherdelayedthestartdateforcomplianceorrelaxedtheproposedpolicystringency.Regulationsthatwererollbackedanddelayedpoliciesin2023coveredaround1%ofcurrentglobalemissions.

Still,substantialleewayexiststoadvancecoverage,stringencyandenforcementofthesepolicies.Aroundone-quarterofglobalenergygrowthto2030isprojectedtooccurinunregulatedsectors,andinmostcountries,theleastefficientapplianceslegallysoldareatleast40%lessefficientthanthe“best-in-class”equivalentinthatregion.Additionally,risingpolicycoveragedoesnotnecessarilyimplynear-termimpact.Somepoliciesnaturallycomewithsometime-lag—mostfueleconomystandardsareupdatedevery4–5yearsandaimtogiveindustrya10–15-yeartimehorizontocomply—butalackofenforcementofthesestandardscanalsodiminishtheirimpact.Forinstance,while90%offossilfuelproductionisnowsubjecttooneormoreregulationstargetingfugitivemethane,energy-sectormethaneemissionsstillclimbedby3%lastyear.

CurrentNationallyDeterminedContributionstargetreducingenergy-sectorCO2emissionsto32Mtby2030,withupdatedNDCsexpectedin2025.TheIEA’s

ClimatePledgesExplorer

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Keyfindings

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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assessestheenergycomponentofallNDCsandlong-termclimateambitionsandfindsthatcurrentNDCsfallshortofwhatisneededtohitlong-termclimateobjectives.WithParisAgreementsignatoriessettosubmitnewNDCstargetsin2025—StateofEnergyPolicy2024canhelphighlightwhichpolicieshaveproveneffective,andwheretheycanbeexpanded.Manyrecentenergypoliciesshowclearpotentialtoadvanceclimatemitigationintheenergysector.Buttheymustalsofitlocalcontexts,andensuresecurity,competitivenessandaffordability.TheIEAremainscommittedtomonitoringandprovidingthelatestenergypolicydatatogovernmentsandthepublic,aswecollectivelychartapathtoasecureandsustainableenergyfuture.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Keyfindings

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Countriescoveringone-thirdofenergy-relatedCO2emissionsearmarkednewcleanenergy

spendinglastyear;thoserepresentingone-fifthofemissionsadoptednewenergyregulations

GlobalCO2emissionscoveredbychangesinpolicybetweenJune2023andSeptember2024(%)

ClimateambitionGovernmentspendingonCETsRegulations

Legend:

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

Nochangeinexistingpolicies

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

26%

27%

28%

29%

30%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

31%

32%

33%

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

39%

40%

Changesettodecreaseemissions

41%

42%

43%

44%

45%

46%

47%

48%

49%

50%

41%

42%

43%

44%

45%

46%

47%

48%

49%

50%

41%

42%

43%

44%

45%

46%

47%

48%

49%

50%

51%

52%

53%

54%

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

60%

51%

52%

53%

54%

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

60%

51%

52%

53%

54%

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

60%

Withdrawalorpostponement

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

71%

72%

73%

74%

75%

76%

77%

78%

79%

80%

71%

72%

73%

74%

75%

76%

77%

78%

79%

80%

71%

72%

73%

74%

75%

76%

77%

78%

79%

80%

Noknownpolicyornotcovered

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

86%

87%

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89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

91%

92%

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94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:CET=cleanenergytechnology.Onetilerepresents1%ofglobalenergy-relatedCO2emissions.ChangeinclimateambitionreflectschangesinstringencyofNDCsorofnet-

zerotargets.ChangeinCETgovernmentspendinghighlightscountriesthatincreased(between2023and2024)theirearmarkedspendinglinkedtoenergy-relatedemissions.ChangeinregulationtracksachangeinpolicytoaddresssectoralCO2emissions,withmoredetailsprovidedinthesectoralscorecardslaterinthisreport.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Keyfindings

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|7

Governmentscontinuetoallocatemorelong-terminvestmentsupporttocleanenergy,withoverUSD2trillioninfreshallocationssince2020

Earmarkedgovernmentsupportforcleanenergyinvestmentandconsumerenergyaffordabilitymeasuresbybudgetallocationyear

BillionUSD(2023,MER)

600

500

400

300

200

2020202120222023

Earmarkedplanneddisbursments

2024202520262027202820292030

Indicativeforward-lookingspending

100

CleanenergyinvestmentsupportShort-termaffordabilitysupport

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Earmarkedgovernmentspendingshowsplanneddisbursementsandindicativeforward-lookingspendingacrossbudgettimelinesasvalidatedbetween2020andH1/2024.

Theseestimatesdonottranslateintodisbursementprojectionsupto2030,asitisexpectedthatgovernmentswillroutemorespendingpackagesthroughannualapprovalprocesses.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Keyfindings

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|8

Tradepoliciesrelatedtokeycleanenergytechnologiessharplyincreasedintheearly2020s

Cumulativenewtradepoliciescoveringcleantechnologies,2015-H1/2024

250

200

150

100

50

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

SolarPVWindturbinesBatteriesElectricvehiclesHeatpumpsElectrolysers

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:EachcountindicatesasingleinstanceofatrademeasureimpactingsolarPV,windturbines,batteries,EVs,heatpumpsorelectrolysers,andtheircomponents.Thisincludes

EVsandbatterycells,anodeandcathode;solarPVmodules,cells,wafersandpolysilicon;windnacellesandblades;heatpumpsandelectrolysers.Anymeasurethatincludes

severalofthesetechnologiesiscountedonceperprovision.Tradepoliciesconsideredincludechangesinimportorexporttariffs,anti-dumpingdutyandcountervailingmeasures,

importorexportcontrolandbans,andothernon-tariffmeasures,suchasimportorexportlicensingandquotas.ThescopeofFTAsisinvestigatedseparatelyandisnotincludedinthechart.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|9

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|10

UnderstandingtheStateofEnergyPolicyreport

StateofEnergyPolicy2024isafirst-of-its-kindpublicationfromtheIEA,whichexploreshowtheglobalenergypolicylandscapehasevolvedoverthepastyear—specifically,betweenJune2023andSeptember2024.Withinputfromcountryofficialsandawiderangeofinternationalexperts,thereportcoversover50policytypesacrossmorethan60countries,and,intotal,cataloguesover5000energypolicies,allavailableonapubliclyaccessibledatabase—the

IEA’s

EnergyPolicyInventory.

Thereportoffersasynthesisofthiscomprehensivedataset,helpinguserstomakesenseoflatesttrendsandcompareenergypolicypositionsacrossdifferentcountries.

Eachyear,StateofEnergyPolicywillprovideupdates,buildingontheIEA’scomprehensiveannualreviewofpoliciestoinformitsGlobalEnergyandClimatemodelling.Futureeditionswillcontinuetoexpandonthetypesofpoliciescovered.

Scope

TheStateofEnergyPolicyreportanditsassociateddatasetexaminekeymeasuresthathavebeenadoptedwidelyacrossseveralcountriesorregionsandshowpotentialtomeaningfullyaccelerateandsecurecleanenergytransitions.Theinventoryfor2024includes:

Internationalcommitmentsandclimatepledges,whichencompassNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)andnet

zeroemissionstargets,asinventoriedinthe

IEA’sClimatePledges

Explorer.

Governmentenergyspending,whichbuildsontheannualcollectionofthe

IEA’sGovernmentEnergySpendingTracker

Database,

coveringcleanenergyinvestmentsupportandconsumerenergyaffordabilitymeasures.ThepresentreportsupersedestheGovernmentEnergySpendingTrackeranalysis,whichisnowcoveredinitsownsectionofthisreport.

Tradepoliciesencompassanalysisoftariffsandnon-tariffmeasures,aswellasfreetradeagreements(FTAs)thatimpactkeycleanenergytechnologiesandcommodities.ItisanewareaofanalysisbytheIEA,takenupasof2024.Thedetailedglobalimpactsofthesetradepoliciesarefurtheranalysedintheforthcomingpublication

EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2024.

Regulationscoverstopicssuchasminimumenergyperformancestandards(MEPS),standards,pricinginstruments,supplychainsresilience,andplanstoexpandenergynetworks,aswellasthephase-outoffossil-fuelbasedorinefficienttechnologies.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Internationalcommitmentsandclimatepledges

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|11

Internationalcommitmentsandclimatepledges

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|12

Fewnewupdatesorannouncementsoflong-termclimategoalsoccurredinthepast12months

EvolutioninmitigationtargetsinNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)andcoverageofnetzeroemissionstargets

GlobalenergyCO2emissions

2030NDCtargets

MtCO2

40

35

30

25

20

First???Current

NDCs202120222023NDCs

ConditionalityEvolutioninmitigation

Source:IEA,

ClimatePledgesExplorer

Netzeroemissionstargets

80%

60%

40%

20%

100%

0%

2018202020222024InlawProposedlegislationInpolicydocumentOralpledge

IEA.CCBY4.0.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Internationalcommitmentsandclimatepledges

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|13

Allsightsarenowseton2025toupdateNationallyDeterminedContributionsandlong-termstrategiesinadvanceofCOP30

Netzeropledgesin2024

AsofSeptember2024,98countriesandtheEuropeanUnionhavecommittedtoreachcarbonorclimateneutrality.Around87%ofglobalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsareeventuallycovered,althoughnotallaresupportedbyatleastonepolicydocumentoralaw.

Onlyafewadditionalcountriespledgednewtargetsoverthepast12months.Switzerlandenshrinedits2050climateneutralitygoalinlaw(June2023)throughits

ClimateandInnovationLaw.

Ethiopia

and

Georgia

bothsetgoalstoreachnetzeroby2050,asoutlinedintheirLong-TermLowEmissionDevelopmentStrategies(LT-LEDS)(publishedinJuneandJuly2023,respectively).Ghanarecentlyincreaseditsambitiontoachievecarbonneutralityby2060,throughits

updatedEnergyTransitionandInvestmentPlan.

Ugandaunveiledits

EnergyTransitionPlan

(supportedbytheIEA),settingatargettoreachenergy-sectornetzeroCO2emissionsby2065.Regionally,theincreaseincoverageofnetzeropledgesismostnoticeableinEurope,where

Türkiye’s2053climateneutralitygoal

raisedtheshareofregionalemissionscoveredbyanetzeropledgeto95%.

RegionalCO2emissionscoverageofnetzeropledges

EMDEsAdvanced

economies

AsiaPacific

EuropeNorthAmerica

EurasiaDevelopingAsia

MENASub-SaharanAfrica

Netzerotargetsupportedbyastrategy

Oralpledges

NoNZEtarget

0%20%40%60%80%100%

ShareofregionalCO2emissions

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:NZE=netzeroemissions.EMDEs=emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.MENA=MiddleEastandNorthAfrica.AdvancedeconomiesinAsiaPacificincludeAustralia,Japan,KoreaandNewZealand.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Internationalcommitmentsandclimatepledges

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|14

TheuptickinnetzerocoverageisalsonoticeableinEurasia,withtheapprovalof

Kazakhstan’sNetzeroStrategy

inFebruary2023.Todate,however,mostoftheregion’semissionsarenotyetcoveredbyaclimateneutralitypledgethatissupportedbyastrategyorlaw.Asofthefirsthalfof2024,mostoftheglobalemissionsnotyetcoveredbyanetzerotarget–roughly10%–areconcentratedintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)andEurasia.

NationallyDeterminedContributionsin2024

OnlyahandfulofnewNDCs(14)havebeensubmittedsinceJanuary2023,collectivelyimplyinganadditionalcumulativereductionof240Mtofenergy-relatedCO2emissionsby2030.Amongthoseupdated,the

UnitedArabEmirates2023SecondNDC

isthemostnotable.Itaimsforaneconomy-wide,absoluteemissionsreductionof19%by2030(comparedto2019levels),movingawayfromthebusiness-as-usualtrajectorysetinits2020SecondNDC.

Brazilalso

updateditsNDC,

movingfromatargetof50%below2005levelsby2030toanabsoluteannualemissionslimitof1.2GtCO2-eq,consistentwitha53.1%reductiontarget.TheEuropeanUnionalsosubmittedanupdatedNDC,butwithoutanyoverallenhancementofitsmitigationcomponent.

Ifpledgesaremetontimeandinfull,currentNDCsimplyatrajectoryinwhichemissionspeakinthisdecadeandstabiliseataround32MtCO2in2030.Thistrajectory,however,isstillmisalignedwiththelong-termstrategiesofmostcountriesandfallsshortofa1.5°Ccompatiblepathway.Strengthenedsubmissions(beforeCOP30in

Brazil)willlargelyset2035targets.Tocomplywithcountries’ownlong-termgoalsaccordingtotheIEA’sAnnouncedPledgesScenario(APS),inaggregate,NDCswouldneedtocutemissionsbyabout1GtCO2everyyearfrom2023to2035–approximately400Mtmorethantheamountcurrentlypledged.Annualglobalmitigationwouldneedtorisetoroughly2Gtto2035toalignwiththeIEANetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZEScenario),whichachievesthetargetstotriplerenewablescapacityanddoubleenergyefficiencyimprovements,inlinewiththeCOP28UAEConsensus.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Governmentenergyspending

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|15

Governmentenergyspending

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Governmentenergyspending

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|16

Advancedeconomiesearmarkedthreetimesmoresupportforcleanenergythaninemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies,withgreaterfocusonboostinglong-terminvestorcertainty

Earmarkedannualgovernmentsupportforcleanenergyinvestmentbybudgetallocationyear

BillionUSD(2023,MER)

300

250

200

150

100

50

Advancedeconomies

202020222024202620282030Planneddisbursedspending

Emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies

202020222024202620282030Indicativeforward-lookingspending

IEA.CCBY4.0

Note:Earmarkedgovernmentspendingshowsplanneddisbursementsandforward-lookingdirectspendingthroughbudgettimelinesvalidatedbetween2020andH1/2024.Theseestimatesdonottranslateintodisbursementprojectionsupto2030,asitisexpectedthatgovernmentswillroutemorespendingpackagesthroughannualapprovalprocesses.

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Governmentenergyspending

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|17

80%ofearmarkedgovernmentspendingisconcentratedinthreeregions:theUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionandChina

Earmarkedgovernmentspendingoncleanenergybysectorandregion,2020-H1/2024

Low-emissionselectricity

Energy-efficientbuildingsandindustry

Massandalternativetransit

Low-emissionsvehicles

Low-emissionsfuelsandtechnologyinnovation

Electricitynetworks

100200300400

UnitedStates

EuropeanUnion

China

Restoftheworld

500

BillionUSD(2023,MER)

IEA.CCBY4.0

StateofEnergyPolicy2024

Governmentenergyspending

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|18

Newlyearmarkedgovernmentsupportforcleanenergyin2024bringstotalsincetheCovid-19

pandemictoUSD2trillion

Cumulativegovernmentsupportforcleanenergyreach