國際商會(huì)國際仲裁院-室內(nèi)脈搏：全球市場當(dāng)?shù)鼐坝^ Chamber pulse Global markets,local landscapes 2024

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CCIRParisIle-de-FranceGeorgianChamberof

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DIHK

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AndhraChamberofCommerce

FICCI

IMCChamberofCommerceandIndustry

PapuaChamberof

CommerceandIndustryAhvazChamberof

Commerce,Industries,Mines

andAgriculture

Gorganchamberofcommerce

GuilanChamberof

Commerce,Industries,Mines

andAgriculture

Isfahanchamberofcommerce

SanandajChamberof

Commerce,Industries,MinesandAgriculture

TehranChamberof

CommerceIndustriesMines

andAgriculture

YazdChamberof

Commerce,Industries,Mines

andAgriculture

ChambersIrelandSouthDublin

ChamberofcommerceFede

Alessandria-Asti

ChamberofcommerceofBrescia

ChamberofCommerceofTorino

JapanChamberof

CommerceandIndustryTokyoChamberof

CommerceandIndustryJordanChamberof

Commerce

EastAfricanChamberofCommerce,IndustryandAgriculture

KenyaNationalChamberofCommerceandIndustry

LatvianChamberof

CommerceandIndustryChamberofcommerce,IndustryandAgricultureinSaida&SouthLebanon

ChamberofCommerce,

IndustryandAgricultureof

Beirut&MountLebanonLesothoChamberof

CommerceandIndustryAssociationofLithuanianChambersofCommerce,IndustryandCrafts

ChamberofcommerceandindustryNOSYbeMadagascar

ChambredeCommerceetd’IndustrieAntananarivo

TheMaltaChamberof

Commerce,Enterpriseand

Industry

MauritiusChamberof

CommerceandIndustryCámaradeComerciodeGuadalajara

ChamberofCommerceandIndustryoftheRepublicof

Moldova

ChamberofEconomyofMontenegro

TheRepublicoftheUnion

ofMyanmarFederationof

ChamberofCommerceandIndustry,UMFCCI

AucklandBusinessChamberBusinessCentral

WaikatoCahmaberof

CommerceandIndustryInc.Franco-NigerianChamberofCommerceandIndustry

LagosChamberof

Commerce&IndustryPanAfricanChamberofCulture,TradeandInvestment

MacedonianChamberofCommerce

OsloChamberOf

Commerce/ICCNorway

OmanChamberof

CommerceandIndustryKarachiChamberof

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CamaradeComerciodeLima

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CamaradeComércioeIndústriaPortuguesa

PuertoRicoChamberofCommerce

ChamberofCommerceandIndustryofRomania

ChamberofCommerceand

IndustryofSerbiaSingaporeBusinessFederation

SlovakCCI

SlovakChamberof

CommerceandIndustry

EasternGautengChamberJohannesburgChamberofCommerceandIndustry

NalaBusinessChamberWestGautengChamberKoreaChamberof

CommerceandIndustryCámaradeComerciodeEspa?a

CámaradecomerciodeMadrid

CámaradeComerciodeSantiagodeCompostelaCámaradeComerciodeSevilla

CámaraOficialde

Comercio,IndustriayServiciosdeLaRiojaCamaraOficialde

Comercio,IndustriayServiciosdeMadrid

TheCeylonChamberofCommerce

TheNationalChamber

ofCommerceofSriLankaConfederationofSwedishEnterprise

SwedishConfederationofEnterprise

GenevaChamberof

commerce,industryandservices

ConfederationofAsia-

PacificChambersof

CommerceandIndustryTAITRA

TanzaniaChamberof

CommerceIndustryandAgriculture(TCCIA)

TanzaniaChamberof

Commerce,IndustryandAgriculture

TrinidadandTobago

ChamberofIndustryandCommerce

ChambredeCommerceetd’industrieTunisoFran?aiseChambredeCommerce

Tuniso-Estonienne(TECC)

AdanaChamberofIndustry

AdanaCommodityExchange

AegeanRegionChamberOfIndustry

Ak?akocaChamberofCommerceandIndustryAnkaraChamberof

Commerce

AnkaraChamberofIndustry

Ayd?nChamberofCommerce

Bo?azliyanChamberof

CommerceandIndustry

BoluTicaretveSanayiOdas?BurdurTicaretveSanayi

Odasi

BursaCommodityExchange?anakkaleChamberof

CommerceandIndustryCarsambaCCI

?erkezk?yTSO

?ubukTicaretBorsasi

DenizliChamberofIndustry

DenizliCommodityExchange

DeveliChamberofCommerce

DüzceChamberof

CommerceAndIndustryEdremitTicaretOdasi

EskisehirChamberofCommerce

GaziantepCommodityExchange

Gebzechamberofcommerce

GiresunChamberof

CommerceandIndustryGümü?haneTicaretveSanayiOdasi

HopaTicaretveSanayiOdas?

InegolChamberof

CommerceandIndustry

IspartaTicaretBorsasi

KaramanTicaretBorsas?

KaramanTicaretveSanayiOdasi

KarapinarTicaretveSanayiOdasi

KayseriChamberofIndustryKayseriTicaretBorsas?

KocaeliChamberofIndustry

KonyaChamberofCommerce

ManavgatTicaretveSanayiOdas?

ManisaChamberof

CommerceandIndustryManisaTicaretBorsasi

MersinChamberofShippingPolatliTicaretOdasi

RizeTicaretBorsasi

safranboluticaretvesanayiodas?

SakaryaChamberof

CommerceandIndustry

SamsunChamberof

CommerceandIndustry

?anl?urfaTicaretveSanayiOdas?

SivasTicaretBorsasi

TavsanliChamberof

CommerceandIndustryTOBB

TrabzonCommodityExchange

UgandanationalchamberofcommerceandindustryDnipropetrovskChamberofCommerceandIndustry

TheUkrainianChamberofCommerceandIndustry

DubaiChambers

FederationofUAEChambersofCommerce&Industry

RAKChamber

BritishChambersofCommerce

CentralFairfaxChamberofCommerce

OrlandoEconomicPartnership

U.S.ChamberofCommerceUSCIB

CamaradeComercioyServiciosdelUruguay

CámaradeComercio,IndustriayServiciosdeCaracas

VietnamChamberof

CommerceandIndustry

October2024|Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes|3

Tableofcontent

Listoffigures,tablesandbox 4

Acronyms 4

1.Methodology 6

2.Businessclimate 6

3.Artificialintelligence 8

4.Inflation 8

5.Accesstofinance 9

6.Outlook 10

7.Climateandsustainability 11

8.Regionalperspectives 14

Acknowledgements 18

Listoffigures,tablesandboxes

Figure1.Howwouldyouratethecurrenteconomic

environmentforbusinessesinyourcountry? 7

Figure2.TowhatextentisAIadoptedinyourcountry’s

businesspractices? 8

Figure3.Whatwerethemainconsequencesofchanges

inpricesonbusinessesinyourcountry? 8

Figure4.Howdoyouexpectbusinessactivity(sales)

tochangeoverthenext12months? 10

Figure5.Howdoyouexpectthatpriceswilldevelop

inthenext12months? 10

Figure6.Howarebusinessesinyourcountryadapting

tonewclimatepoliciesandregulations? 11

Table1.Mainconstraintsofthecurrenteconomic

environmentonbusinesses 7

Table2.Whatarethebiggestbarrierstofinancialinclusion

inyourcountry? 9

Table3.Top3mosteffectivemeasuresinsupportingSMEs

totakeconcreteclimateaction 13

Box1.Addressingclimatepoliciesinfragilestates:thecaseofHaiti 12

Acronyms

EAPEastAsiaandPacific

ECAEuropeandCentralAsia

LACLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanMENAMiddleEastandNorthAfrica

NANorthAmerica

SASouthAsia

SSASub-SaharanAfrica

October2024|Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes|4

Thissurveyhighlightsthecrucialrolechambersofcommerceworldwideplayasprivatesectorchampions.Theyaredeeplyintouchwiththegrassrootsrealitiesofdoingbusinesswhilemaintainingaglobalperspectiveandremainingconnected

throughourICCWorldChambersFederation.

RifatHisarc?kl?o?lu

ChairoftheICCWorldChambersFederation

Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes

October2024

5

1.Methodology

Leveragingourdiverseandextensiveglobalnetworkofchambersofcommerce,theInternationalChamberofCommerce(ICC)throughitsWorldChambersFederation(ICCWCF)conducted

theICCWCFGlobalEconomicSurveyinAugust2024togatherinsightsfromover200chambersworldwide.TheICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey,whichconsistsof16questions,targetedseniorexecutivesofchambersofcommerceandindustry.Intotal,wereceived218responses

from96countriesandterritories,representingeconomiesthatcollectivelyaccountfor90%ofglobalGDP.Bilateralandtransnationalchamberswerealsoincludedinthecountrycount.Theregionsinthisreportfollowthesameclassificationasthoseusedbythe

WorldBank

.

Duetotheunevendistributionofresponsesacrossregions,wecreatedanindividualscore

foreachcountrytoensurethatallcountrieshaveequalweight.Itisimportanttohighlightthatthesamplewasnotevenlydistributed,withEuropeandCentralAsiabeingoverrepresented,

makingup50%ofallresponses.Toaddressthisbias,wedevelopedanindividualscoreforeachcountry,ensuringthatcountry-levelresponseswereproportionallyrepresented.

Forcountrieswithmultiplechambersprovidingresponses,anaveragescorewascalculatedtoreflectthecollectivefeedbackfromthatcountry.Theregionalaveragesrepresentthe

simplemeanofthecountrieswithineachregion.

Ifthisreportaimstohighlightrelationshipsofinterest,causalitycannotandshouldnotbeinferred.Weencourageadditionalresearchonallrelationshipsmentionedinthisreport.

2.Businessclimate

Chambersgenerallyhaveapositiveoutlookonthebusinessenvironment,thoughthere

arenotableregionaldifferences.Amongthesurveyedchambers,41%considerthebusinessenvironmentacceptable,36%viewitasgood,and14%rateitasverygoodorexcellent.

However,perceptionscanvarysignificantlywithinaregion,particularlyinLatinAmericaor

EuropeandCentralAsia(Figure1).Negativeviewsareespeciallyprevalentinchamberslocatedincountriesexperiencingpoliticalandeconomiccrises,suchasHaiti,Bolivia,andAfghanistan.

Figure1.Howwouldyouratethecurrenteconomicenvironmentforbusinessesinyourcountry?

%oftotal

1%

13%

36%

41%

7%

2%l

654321

Excellent

veryGood

Good

Acceptable

Bad

veryBad

AVEragescoreMin令Max

乙

Source:ICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey

October2024|Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes|6

Attheaggregatelevel,themainconstraintsforbusinessesare(i)shortageoflabourorskilledlabour,(ii)inflation,(iii)geopoliticaltensions,(iv)taxation,and(v)financialproblems.

Attheregionallevel,morethan80%ofchambersinEuropeandCentralAsiaareconcernedabouttheshortageoflabourorskilledlabour.ConcernsovertaxationareparticularlyacuteforSouthAsiaandSub-SaharanAfrica.InsecurityisthemainbarrierinLatinAmericaas

60%ofrespondentsintheregionmentionedthisconstraint.InflationisthemainworryforrespondentsinEastAsiaandPacificandNorthAmerica,whilerespondentsoftheMENAregionstatedgeopoliticaltensionsasthemainconstraint(Table1).

Mainconstraintsofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentonbusinesses

Topfiveconstraintsthatreceivedthehighestresponsesineachregion.

1

2

3

4

5

NorthAmerica

Inflation100%Shortageoflabour/skilledlabour80%Taxation75%Financialproblems43%Unclearorunstabledomesticpolitics35%

Europe&CentralAsia

Shortageoflabour/skilledlabour84%Geopoliticaltensions77%Inflation56%Taxation47%Unclearorunstabledomesticpolitics29%

MiddleEast&NorthAfrica

Geopoliticaltensions62%

Financialproblems52%

Unclearorunstabledomesticpolitics41%

Inflation37%

Shortageoflabour/skilledlabour36%

EastAsia&Pacific

1Inflation75%

2Shortageoflabour/skilledlabour60%

3Financialproblems56%

4Geopoliticaltensions53%

5Taxation36%

1

2

3

4

5

LatinAmerica&Caribbean

Insecurity

politics

Unclearorunstabledomestic

FinancialproblemsTaxation

Exchangerate

60%54%52%48%39%

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Taxation72%

Financialproblems71%

Competitiveimports67%

Inflation53%

Exchangerate51%

SouthAsia

Taxation93%

Financialproblems67%Lackofnewtechnologicaldevelopments57%Insecurity47%Unclearorunstabledomesticpolitics47%

Source:ICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey

Overthepast12months,theglobaltradeenvironmenthashadanegativeimpacton

businesses.Almosthalfoftherespondentsconsidertheglobaltradeenvironmenthas

hinderedbusiness,whereasalmost30%ofrespondentsconsidertheimpactwaspositive.For25%ofrespondents,theimpactwasneutral.

October2024|Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes|7

3.Artificialintelligence

Figure2.TowhatextentisAIadoptedinyour

country’sbusinesspractices?%oftotal

2%

16%

22%

60%

Artificialintelligence(AI)continues

tosparkdebate,thoughsomehold

apositiveoutlook.AnoverwhelmingnumberofrespondentsseeAIasbothanopportunityandarisk.Despite

concernsaboutrisks,22%ofrespondentsconsiderAIanopportunity.According

to60%ofrespondents,theuncertainty

aroundthefutureprospectsofAIisalsolinkedtoitslimitedapplicationtocertainsectorswithhighinnovation.

(Figure2)

.

Source:ICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey

4.Inflation

Inflationhassignificantlyimpactedoperatingcosts,wages,supplychains,anddomestic

competitiveness.Nearly90%ofourrespondentsreportedthatpriceshadsurgedoverthe

past12months,seriouslyaffectingtheirrespectiveeconomies.Fornineoutof10respondents,inflationmeanthigheroperatingcosts,althoughthiswasslightlylesspronouncedinSouth

Asia,whereeightoutof10respondentsreportedincreasedcosts.

Halfoftherespondentsnoticedincreasedpressuretoraisewagesintheircountry,especiallyinNorthAmerica(78%)andEastAsiaandthePacific(74%).Supplychaindisruptionsare

particularlyconcerninginSub-SaharanAfrica(72%),NorthAmericaandSouthAsia(close

to60%),andLatinAmerica(50%).Additionally,61%ofrespondentsinEastAsiaandthePacificmentionedthatinflationhasdelayedinvestmentdecisions.

Businessesseemtostruggletomaintaintheirdomesticorinternationalcompetitivenessinallregions,butthisstruggleislesspronouncedinSouthAsia(Figure3).

Figure3.Whatwerethemainconsequencesofchangesinpricesonbusinessesinyourcountry?

%ofresponsesbyregion

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

EAPECALACMENANASASSATotal

Increasedoperatingcosts

Increasedpressuretoraisewages

Supplychaindisruptions

Struggledtomaintain

competitivenessindomesticorinternationalmarkets

Delayedinvestmentdecisions

Reducedconsumer

domestic/foreigndemand

Non-existent,withnoAIadoptiontodate

Minimal,withfew

examplesofAIinuse

Limitedtocertainsectorswithhighinnovation

Widespreadacrossvariousindustries

Source:ICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey

October2024|Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes|8

Asthevoiceofrealeconomiesworldwide,ICChasleverageditsuniqueinstitutionalreachtoprovideacomprehensive

andglobalpictureoftherealitiesofdoingbusinessintoday’sincreasinglycomplexenvironment.Thisreal-timedatawillhelpshapeourstrategicresponsetothekeychallengesfacedby

MSMEs,includingtacklingtheglobalSMEtradefinancegap.

JohnW.H.DentonAO

Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes

October2024

9

ICCSecretaryGeneral

5.Accesstofinance

Theeconomicenvironmentandtightfinancialconditionshinderaccesstofinancing.Atthe

aggregatelevel,economicuncertainty,highinterestrates,andstringentcreditrequirementshinderfinancialinclusionforabouthalfofrespondents.Highinterestratesareparticularlyrestrictivein

SouthAsiaandSub-SaharanAfrica(Table2).LengthyapplicationprocessesarethesecondbiggestbarriertofinancialinclusioninSub-SaharanAfrica(63%ofrespondents)andthethird-ranking

obstacleintheMENAregion(29%respondents).Respondentsdidnotseeanyimprovementregardingaccesstofinanceinthepast12months.

Table2.Whatarethebiggestbarrierstofinancialinclusioninyourcountry?

%ofresponsesbyregion

Region

Lackofcollateral

Highinter-estrates

Stringent

creditre-

quirements

Limited

financing

options

Lengthyapplicationprocesses

Lackoftrust

Economicuncertainty

EastAsia&Pacific

32%

51%

47%

45%

47%

13%

64%

Europe&CentralAsia

14%

47%

46%

40%

17%

13%

48%

LatinAmerica&Caribbean

19%

63%

42%

36%

36%

17%

79%

MiddleEast&NorthAfrica

16%

17%

24%

52%

29%

11%

56%

NorthAmerica

13%

42%

50%

46%

21%

8%

58%

SouthAsia

60%

60%

60%

37%

43%

27%

47%

Sub-SaharanAfrica

43%

89%

58%

43%

63%

22%

35%

Source:ICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey

October2024|Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes|10

6.Outlook

Overall,theoutlookispositive,butsomeregionsanticipateamorepessimistictrend.Slightlymorethanhalfoftherespondentsbelievethebusinessoutlookwillimprovemoderatelyor

significantly,while30%thinkitwillremainunchanged,andcloseto15%expectbusiness

activitytodecline(Figure4).RespondentsfromEastAsiaandthePacificaswellasSub-

SaharanAfricaareoptimisticwithabout60%anticipatinganimprovementinbusiness

activity.Conversely,theoutlookisgloomyforoneinfiverespondentsintheMENAandSouthAsiaregions.InSouthAsia,particularlyinIndiaandSriLanka,thebusinessoutlookappearsextremelypositive.InLatinAmerica,politicalinstabilityinHaitiandVenezuelasignificantly

affectstheoutlook,asrespondentsfrombothcountrieswereunabletoanswerthisquestion.Figure4.Howdoyouexpectbusinessactivity(sales)tochangeoverthenext12months?%oftotal

Sub-SaharanAfrica

SouthAsia

NorthAmerica

MiddleEast&NorthAfrica

LatinAmerica&Caribbean

Europe&CentralAsia

EastAsia&Pacific

Donotknow

Declinesignificantly

Declinemoderately

Remainunchanged

Improvemoderately

Improvesignificantly

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Source:ICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey

Inflationconcernsarepersistent.

Respondentsbelievethatinflationisheretostay,withover80%expectingitto

increasemoderatelyormorerapidly

(Figure5).ConcernsaboutrisinginflationareparticularlyacuteinNorthAmerica

andSub-SaharanAfrica.IntheMENAregion,inflationisaseriousconcernforEgyptand

Lebanon,likelyduetogeopoliticalinstabilityanduncertainty.MostrespondentsfromLatinAmerica,EuropeandCentralAsiaandEast

AsiaandPacificanticipatedamoderateincreaseininflation.

Figure5.Howdoyouexpectthatpriceswilldevelopinthenext12months?%oftotal

3%

Decrease

moderately

Remain

thesame

Increase

moderately

Increasemorerapidly

14%13%

71%

Source:ICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey

October2024|Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes|11

Theglobalsurveyoffersarealitycheckontheglobalclimate

agenda—highlightingtheurgentneedtoenhancefiscalsupport,accesstocleantechnologiesandsupplychaincollaboration

tospeedmitigationeffortsbySMEs.Theseareasdeservemuch

greaterattentionfrompolicymakersaspartofeffortstoimplementtheParisclimateagreement.ICCwilldevelopitspolicytofoster

solutionsaccordingly.

PhilippeVarin

ICCChair

October2024

Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes

12

7.Climateandsustainability

Businessesareadaptingtoclimatechangepoliciesbyadoptinggreentechnologies,developingsustainableproducts,anddiversifyingenergysources.Diversifyingenergysourcesiscritical

forlow-incomeandlowermiddle-incomecountries,whilebusinessesinuppermiddle-incomeorhigh-incomecountriesaremoreinterestedinadoptinggreentechnologiesordeveloping

sustainableproductsandservices.InSouthAsiaandSub-SaharanAfrica,diversifying

energysourcesistheprimarysolutionformorethan80%ofrespondents.InLatinAmerican

countries,EuropeandCentralAsia,thefocusisondevelopingsustainableproductsorservices.Meanwhile,adoptinggreentechnologiesisparticularlypopularinEastAsiaandthePacific

(Figure6).Incertaincountries,likeHaiti,politicalinstabilityandsignificantinsecurityhave

causedclimatepoliciestobepostponed,exacerbatingthecountry’svulnerabilitytoclimate

shocks(seeBox1).

Figure6.Howarebusinessesinyourcountryadaptingtonewclimatepoliciesandregulations?

%oftotal

120%100%80%60%40%20%0%

Europe&CentralAsiaNorthAmerica

EastAsia&Pacific

MiddleEast&NorthAfricaSub-SaharanAfrica

Total

LatinAmerica&CaribbeanSouthAsia

Diversifyingenergysources

Adoptinggreentechnologies

Developing

sustainable

productsor

services

Reducingwater

consumption,

wasteor

increasing

recycling

Reducing

carbon

emissionsinthe

supplychainor

logistics

Obtaining

carboncredits

oroffsets

Hiringstaff

exclusively

dedicatedto

sustainability

TOP3

Source:ICCWCF2024GlobalEconomicSurvey

Opportunitiesforbusinessesincludegainingacompetitiveadvantagethroughgreenpracticesandcreatingjobsingreenindustries.Inseveralcountries,themainchallengesarereducingwaterconsumptionandwaste,aswellasdiversifyingenergysources.Diversifyingenergysourcesis

particularlychallenginginLatinAmericaandSub-SaharanAfrica,whileadoptinggreentechnologiesisakeyissueforEuropeandCentralAsia.

October2024|Chamberpulse:Globalmarkets,locallandscapes|13

Box1.Addressingclimatepoliciesinfragilestates:thecaseofHaiti

ThisboxhighlightsthekeybarriersHaitifacesinadvancingitsclimateagendaandthepotentialopportunitiesiftherightsupportmechanismsareputinplace.

1.Insecurityandrestrictionofmovements:Ongoinginsecurity,gangactivity,and

roadblockswithextortioncheckpointsseverelydisruptHaiti’soperations,makingitdifficulttotransportgoods,rebuildinfrastructure,andimplementclimateinitiatives.

“Itmightseemunrealwhenyoureadit.”

2.Policyreversal:A2017decreethatwaivedimportfeesforgreenenergyequipment,especiallysolarpower,wasrevokedbycustomsauthorities.Thisreversal

underminedeffortstopromoterenewableenergyandreducedependencyoncostlyfuelimports.

3.Illegalimpo