高盛：2024年12月高盛經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)更新-中國+China：GS+Economic+Indicators+Update：December

17December2024|5:16PMHKT

China:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate:December

ChelseaSong

+852-2978-0106|

chelsea.song@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

LishengWang

+852-3966-4004|

lisheng.wang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

HuiShan

+852-2978-6634|

hui.shan@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

Please?ndanupdateofourproprietaryeconomicindicatorsbelow.Thedatabehindourproprietaryeconomicindicatorscanbedownloadedhere.(Methodologynotesavailableintheappendix.)

GSProprietaryEconomicIndicators

Exhibit1:OurChinaCurrentActivityIndicator(CAI)increasedtoaround+6.7%momannualizedinNovemberfrom+6.4%inOctober

XinquanChen

+852-2978-2418|

xinquan.chen@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

YutingYang

+852-2978-7283|

yuting.y.yang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

AndrewTilton

+852-2978-1802|

andrew.tilton@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,NBS,CEIC

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachsChina:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate

Exhibit2:November’simprovementinCAIwasdrivenmainlybythemanufacturingsector

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,NBS,CEIC

Exhibit3:Ourimport-impliedrealdomesticdemandtrackerunderperformedtheof?cialdatainQ3

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17December20242

Exhibit4:OurMAPsurpriseindex(21-daymovingaverage)suggestsNovembermacrodatahavebeenbelowmarketexpectations

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit5:OurmanufacturinggrowthproxycontinuedtooutperformconstructiongrowthproxyinNovember

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17December20243

Exhibit6:OurChinainventorytrackersuggestsinventoriesmayhavedeclinedinQ4

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytic

Exhibit7:TheimpactofinventorychangesonsequentialGDPgrowthmayhaveturnednegativeinQ4

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,HaverAnalytics,CEIC,Bloomberg

17December20244

Exhibit8:OurChinaoutside-inexporttrackerwasbroadlyinlinewiththeof?cialexportgrowthinrecentmonths

Source:HaverAnalytics,CEIC,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit9:OurChinaoutside-inimporttrackerandtheof?cialimportgrowthbothdeclinedinNovember

Source:HaverAnalytics,CEIC,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17December20245

Exhibit10:ChinaFinancialConditionsIndex(FCI;withcreditquantities)easedmarginallyinNovember

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,CEIC,Bloomberg

Exhibit11:November’sFCIeasingwasmainlydrivenbylowerrates

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,CEIC,Bloomberg

17December20246

GoldmanSachsChina:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate

Exhibit12:WeestimatethegrowthimpactofFCIimpulsewouldturnmarginallypositiveinQ4duetopolicyeasing

PercentPercent

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

GrowthImpactofFCIImpulseinChina

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q4

2019

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q4

2020

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q4

2021

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q4

2022

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q4

2023

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q4

2024

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

TheimpulsesassumethattheFCIstays?atthroughtheremainderofthisyear.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit13:OurpreferredgaugesuggestsFXout?owsinNovembermainlyviacross-borderRMB?ows

USDbn150

ModifiedFXFlowMeasure

USDbn

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

-200

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,SAFE

17December20247

GoldmanSachsChina:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate

Exhibit14:OurChinadomesticmacropolicyproxyeasedfurtherinNovember

Z-score

Z-score2.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5

Chinadomesticmacropolicyproxy

↓

Morepolicystimulus

2.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5

070809101112131415161718192021222324

Note:ShadedareasrefertoperiodswhenChinaCAI3mmagrowthwasbelow5%.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Wind,HaverAnalytics,CEIC

Exhibit15:November’seasinginChinamacropolicyproxywasmainlyledby?scaleasing

Z-score2.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0

-2.52425

Z-score

2.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2.5

ChinaDomesticMacroPolicyProxyandItsBreakdown

Credit

MonetaryFiscal

Housing

Morepolicystimulus

!

Chinadomesticmacropolicy

0708091011121314151617181920212223

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Wind,HaverAnalytics,CEIC

17December20248

Exhibit16:Augmented?scalde?citwidenedmodestlyinNovemberonboth3-monthand12-monthmovingaveragebasis

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,CEIC,Wind

Exhibit17:GovernmentbondnewissuanceissettodecelerateinDecember,thoughthere?nancingbondissuancemayremainstrong

Localgovernmentre?nancingbondissuancefordebtresolutionisnotincluded.

Source:Wind,CEIC,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

17December20249

GoldmanSachsChina:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate

Exhibit18:Ourcity-levelpropertyrelativetightnessindexsuggestscontinuedcontinuedhousingeasingdespiteaslightuptickinrecentweeks

TheslighttighteninginrecentmonthswasdrivenbyanupwardadjustmentinmortgageratesincitieslikeHangzhou,Guangzhou,andWuhanetc.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,localgovernments,S

17December202410

MethodologynotesforGSproprietaryeconomicindicators

1.

Exhibit1

and

Exhibit2:

ChinaCurrentActivityIndicator(Bloombergticker:GSCNCAI)isthe“?rst

principalcomponent”ofseveralrealactivityindicatorsincludingindustrialproduction,electricity

consumption,PMIs,etc.,expressedinGDP-equivalentunits.(SeethelatestGSCAImethodologynotehereandtherevampedmethodologyforChinaCAIhere.)Theseindicatorscanberecategorizedto

measuresequentialmomentumindifferentareasoftheeconomy,manufacturing,consumptionandothers(i.e.,housingandthelabormarkets).

2.

Exhibit3:

Ourimport-impliedrealdomesticdemandinfersChina’sdomesticdemandbyassigningall

Chineseimportsbysectortoanultimatesourceof?naldemandusingChina’sinput-outputtables.(Seeabriefsummaryofthemethodologyhere.)Therealdomesticdemandimpliedbynationalaccountsisestimatedfromnationalaccountsdata(GDP–(Exports–Imports)),asacross-checkforthevalidityofthesectoralimportsbaseddomesticdemand.

3.

Exhibit4:

OurChinaMAPsurpriseindexsummarizestheimportanceandstrength(relativeto

consensusexpectations)ofeconomicindicatorsforthecountry.AggregatingMAPovertimeallowsustoexaminewhethereconomicdataareoutperformingorunderperformingconsensusexpectationsforacertainperiod.

4.

Exhibit5:

Ourconstructiongrowthproxyisthemedianyear-on-yeargrowthofhousingstarts,

productionofsteel,cementandglass.Ourmanufacturinggrowthproxyisthemedianyear-on-yeargrowthinproductionofmetalcuttingmachine,autos,powergeneratingequipmentand

microcomputer.(Seeourexplanationshere.)

5.

Exhibit6

and

Exhibit7:

Ourrevisedinventorytrackerisbasedonsixunderlyinginventoryindicators,

includingcommodities,PMIsub-indices,industrialenterprises?nishedgoodsinventory,andauto

inventory.Afterdatacleaning,wederivethe?rstprincipalcomponent,whichexplains25%ofthetotalvariationofthesixseries,andthenmapitintopercentageofGDPtermsasourtrackerforinventorychanges.

6.

Exhibit8

and

Exhibit9:

Ourrevised“outside-in”trademeasuresestimateChina’sexportgrowthandimportgrowthusing“mirror”statisticsreportedbyitsmajortradingpartners,basedonthe

country-speci?clead-lagrelationship,asacross-checkforthevalidityofChinaCustomstradedata.

7.

Exhibit10

and

Exhibit11:

OurrevisedChinaFinancialConditions(FCI)Indextracksliquidityconditionsby1)fundingindex:AAMTNyield,3mSHIBOR,M2andTSF?ows;2)equitymarketP/Eratio;3)RMBonatrade-weightedbasis.Accordingly,thesequentialchangeinFCIcanbeattributedtofactors

throughfourmajorchannels,i.e.,FX,equity,creditandrates.

8.

Exhibit12:

OurestimatedgrowthimpactofFCIimpulsemeasurestheimpactofFCIchangesonGDPgrowth(seerelatedstudiesonChinaFCIandcreditimpulsehere,hereandhere).

9.

Exhibit13:

OurpreferredgaugeofFX?owstracksSAFEmonthlynetFXsales/settlementaswellasthenetcross-border?owsofRMB.

10.

Exhibit14

and

Exhibit15:

OurChinadomesticmacropolicyproxysummarizesChinadomesticmacropolicystancefromfouraspects:1)?scalpolicy;2)monetarypolicy;3)creditpolicy;and4)housing

policy.

11.

Exhibit16:

Ourmeasureofaugmented?scalde?citisasumofeffectiveon-budget?scalde?citand

17December202411

off-budget?scalde?cit.Weestimatetheoff-budgetspendingbymajorchannelsthat?nance

quasi-?scalactivities,whichincludesnewlocalgovernmentspecialbonds(LGSB),landsales

revenue,localgovernment?nancingvehicle(LGFV)bonds,policybankssupport,shadowbankingloans,etc.

12.

Exhibit17:

Ourgovernmentbond?nancingtrackermeasuresthepaceofgovernmentbondnet

issuanceonamonthlybasisanditsbreakdownbybondtype,includingcentralgovernmentgeneralbond(CGGB),centralgovernmentspecialbond(CGSB),localgovernmentgeneralbond(LGGB)andLGSB.Wealsoprovideourprojectionsfortheirmonthlynetissuanceschedulethroughtheremainderoftheyear,basedonannualgovernmentbondissuancequotas,?scalpolicystanceandseasonal

patterns,butthesemaybesubjecttofurtherchangeswhenmoredata/policysignalscomein.

13.

Exhibit18:

Ourpropertypolicyrelativetightnessindextrackstherelativetightnessofpropertypoliciesinover100citiesfromthefollowingaspects:1)demand:purchaserestrictions(householdregistration,socialwelfarecontribution,etc.),creditrestrictions(mortgagerate,downpayment),salesrestrictions;

2)supply:capsonsellingprices,presalesrestrictions,landtransactiontax,etc.;3)others:propertyspeculation,landsupply.

17December202412

GoldmanSachsChina:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,ChelseaSong,LishengWang,HuiShan,XinquanChen,YutingYangandAndrewTilton,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeenin?uencedbyconsiderationsofthe?rm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

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GoldmanSachsChina:GSEconomicIndicatorsUpdate

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