2023年 關(guān)注Chat-GPT競(jìng)品和Tesla投資者日

免責(zé)聲明和披露以及分析師聲明是報(bào)告的一部分，請(qǐng)務(wù)必一起閱讀。1關(guān)注ChatGPT競(jìng)品和Tesla投資者日華泰研究英偉達(dá)AI全面云化，OpenAIAGI計(jì)劃強(qiáng)調(diào)可控性與公平性上周，英偉達(dá)宣布將NVIDIAAI（包括DGX等AI超算、平臺(tái)軟件層和預(yù)訓(xùn)練模型）作為云服務(wù)提供，我們認(rèn)為AI云服務(wù)能降低部署成本和使用門(mén)檻，加速AI應(yīng)用。百度計(jì)劃在所有業(yè)務(wù)中集成對(duì)話式AI產(chǎn)品文心一言，并通過(guò)百度智能云開(kāi)放生成式LLM。OpenAI發(fā)布AGI計(jì)劃，強(qiáng)調(diào)大模型的可控性與公平性?？萍季揞^大模型軍備競(jìng)賽持續(xù)，Meta發(fā)布LLaMA，對(duì)非商用研究用例開(kāi)源。LLaMA-13B在多數(shù)基準(zhǔn)測(cè)試下超越GPT-3（175BLLaMA-65B與目前最好的LLM中的Chinchilla-70B和PaLM-540B旗鼓相當(dāng)，顯示出提升數(shù)據(jù)量對(duì)模型效果的提升作用。華泰觀點(diǎn)：關(guān)注美國(guó)通脹數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期和特斯拉投資者日周五，美國(guó)1月核心PCE環(huán)比漲0.6%，同比漲4.7%，高于彭博一致預(yù)期（QoQ:0.4%;YoY:4.3%引發(fā)市場(chǎng)對(duì)通脹和繼續(xù)加息的擔(dān)憂，納指跌3.3%，標(biāo)普500跌2.7%。上證指數(shù)(+1.3%)在連續(xù)三周下跌后實(shí)現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)，SW電子漲0.3%。個(gè)股方面，特斯拉FSD新方案催化毫米波雷達(dá)概念，上周經(jīng)緯恒潤(rùn)漲10.9%。英偉達(dá)（+8.9%）FY4Q23營(yíng)收60.5億美元，超過(guò)彭博一致預(yù)期的60億美元。本周理想（2/27）、蔚來(lái)（3/1）公布業(yè)績(jī)。特斯拉投資者日（3/1）將舉辦，我們建議關(guān)注1）HW4.0的芯片算力；2）攝像頭像素以及顆數(shù)升級(jí)；3）自研4D毫米波雷達(dá)或?qū)⒅匦律宪?。A股：SW電子上漲0.3%，跑輸上證指數(shù)（+1.3%）上周全部A股日均成交額合計(jì)8,388億元，環(huán)比下跌15.3%。電子板塊漲幅居前企業(yè)包括：通富微電（+14.8%）、經(jīng)緯恒潤(rùn)-W（+10.9%）、寒武紀(jì)-U（+9.9%跌幅居前企業(yè)包括：恒玄科技（-6.1%）、瀾起科技（-4.5%）、傳音控股（-3.9%）。北向資金上周合計(jì)凈流出41億元，主要增持瀾起科技、三環(huán)集團(tuán)、順絡(luò)電子，減持斯達(dá)半導(dǎo)、北方華創(chuàng)、長(zhǎng)電科技。TMT其它板塊，SW通信漲2.9%，SW計(jì)算機(jī)漲1.9%，SW傳媒跌1.0%。港股：恒生科技指數(shù)下跌5.8%，跑輸恒生指數(shù)（-3.4%）上周全部港股日均成交額合計(jì)839億港元，環(huán)比上漲3.8%。恒生科技主要成分股中漲幅居前的企業(yè)包括：眾安在線（+4.9%）、聯(lián)想集團(tuán)（+4.4%）、萬(wàn)國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)（-10.0%）。傳媒互聯(lián)網(wǎng)板塊，騰訊跌6.5%，美團(tuán)跌6.8%，百度跌7.0%，阿里巴巴跌9.5%，快手跌11.8%。南向資金上周合計(jì)凈流入45億元，主要增持中國(guó)移動(dòng)、中國(guó)聯(lián)通、中國(guó)電信，減持騰訊控股、比亞迪股份、美團(tuán)-W。海外：納斯達(dá)克中概股下跌6.7%，納指下跌3.3%，標(biāo)普500下跌2.7%上周納斯達(dá)克中概股跌6.7%，納指跌3.3%，標(biāo)普500跌2.7%，費(fèi)城半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)跌2.4%。十年期美債利率上升13bp至3.95%。半導(dǎo)體板塊漲幅居前為英偉達(dá)（+8.9%）、東京電子（+3.4%跌幅較大的為英特爾（-8.9%）、恩智浦（-6.2%）、阿斯麥（-5.1%）?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)板塊：Meta跌1.4%，亞馬遜跌3.8%，谷歌跌5.5%，SEA跌7.7%。美股汽車板塊：理想跌3.4%，特斯拉跌5.5%，蔚來(lái)跌8.7%，小鵬跌11.9%。上周比特幣跌5.9%。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：海外疫情升級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，宏觀下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，創(chuàng)新品滲透不及預(yù)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本研報(bào)中涉及到未上市公司或未覆蓋個(gè)股內(nèi)容，均系對(duì)其客觀公開(kāi)信息的整理，并不代表本研究團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)該公司、該股票的推薦或覆蓋。研究員SACNo.S0570521050001SFCNo.AUZ066研究員SACNo.S0570521070004SFCNo.BPH392研究員SACNo.S0570522120003研究員SACNo.S0570522020001研究員SACNo.S0570522070002聯(lián)系人SACNo.S0570121090024SFCNo.BSF274聯(lián)系人SACNo.S0570121040041SFCNo.BOB674聯(lián)系人SACNo.S0570121070191SFCNo.BRH099leping.huang@+(852)36586000chenxudong@+(86)2128972228+(86)2128972228zhanghaoyi@+(86)2128972228liuyi020747@+(86)2128972228zhangyu@+(86)1063211166huyuzhou@+(852)36586000andrewhuang@+(852)36586000行業(yè)走勢(shì)圖電子滬深300(%)(9)(17)(26)(34)Feb-22Jun-22Oct-22Feb-23資料來(lái)源：Wind，華泰研究免責(zé)聲明和披露以及分析師聲明是報(bào)告的一部分，請(qǐng)務(wù)必一起閱讀。2(%)(X)納斯達(dá)克100前向PE10年美債收益率（右軸）S&P500前向(%)(X)納斯達(dá)克100前向PE10年美債收益率（右軸）454035454035302520504.03.53.02.52.00.50.02012/112012/112013/022013/052013/082013/112014/022014/052014/082014/112015/022015/052015/082015/112016/022016/052016/082016/112017/022017/052017/082017/112018/022018/052018/082018/112019/022019/052019/082019/112020/022020/052020/082020/112021/022021/052021/082021/112022/022022/052022/082022/112023/02資料來(lái)源：Bloomberg，華泰研究90807060504030202021/0302021/03CNNFear&GreedIndexCBOEVolatilityIndex（右軸）2021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/02052025303540注：指數(shù)往上反映投資者對(duì)市場(chǎng)越樂(lè)觀（越貪婪），往下反映投資者對(duì)市場(chǎng)越悲觀（越恐慌）資料來(lái)源：CNN，CBOE，Wind，華泰研究免責(zé)聲明和披露以及分析師聲明是報(bào)告的一部分，請(qǐng)務(wù)必一起閱讀。333,00031,00029,00027,00025,00023,00021,00019,00017,00015,000恒生指數(shù)沽空比例（右軸）Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22JuFeb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-2330%25%20%15%10%5%注：做空比例=全日賣出金額/（市場(chǎng)成交額-Warrant和CBBC金額）資料來(lái)源：Wind，華泰研究18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000A股成交額萬(wàn)得全A（右軸）6,5006,0005,5005,0004,5002021-01-042021-02-032021-03-052021-04-042021-05-042021-06-032021-07-032021-08-022021-09-012021-10-012021-10-312021-11-302021-12-302022-01-292022-02-282021-01-042021-02-032021-03-052021-04-042021-05-042021-06-032021-07-032021-08-022021-09-012021-10-012021-10-312021-11-302021-12-302022-01-292022-02-282022-03-302022-04-292022-05-292022-06-282022-07-282022-08-272022-09-262022-10-262022-11-252022-12-252023-01-242023-02-23資料來(lái)源：Wind，華泰研究免責(zé)聲明和披露以及分析師聲明是報(bào)告的一部分，請(qǐng)務(wù)必一起閱讀。4代碼公司名稱財(cái)報(bào)貨幣市值（人民幣億收盤(pán)價(jià)（元交易貨幣）P/E2022E2023EP/S2022E2023E股價(jià)變動(dòng)1W1MYTD北向/南向資金流入（億人民幣/億港元）南向/北向資金持股市值（億人民幣/億港元）南向/北向資金持股比例（%）半導(dǎo)體002156CH通富微電CNY3582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