2024年Q2全球天然氣市場報(bào)告

GasMarketReport,

Q2-2024

IncludingGlobalGasReview2023

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,13associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationof

internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:

IEAmembercountries:

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

CzechRepublic

DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIrelandItaly

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

NetherlandsNewZealand

NorwayPolandPortugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazil

China

Egypt

India

IndonesiaKenya

MoroccoSenegal

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Abstract

Abstract

naturalgasremainsakeyaspectofenergypolicymakingandtherisksrelatedtoouroutlookhighlighttheneedtostrengthen

internationalco-operation,includinginassessingandimplementingflexibilityoptionsalonggasandLNGvaluechains.

ThiseditionofthequarterlyGasMarketReportbytheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)providesathoroughreviewofmarket

developmentsoverthe2023/24heatingseasonandashort-termoutlookfor2024.AspartoftheIEA’sLow-EmissionsGasesWorkProgramme,thereportincludesasectiononpolicyandregulatorydevelopmentsaimingtostimulatedemandforbiomethane,low-emissionshydrogenande-methane.

Naturalgasmarketsremainedrelativelycalmoverthe2023/24

NorthernHemispherewinter.AsianandEuropeanspotgaspricesfelltopre-crisislevelsinQ12024,whileintheUnitedStatesHenryHubpricesplummetedtomulti-decadelows.Improvingsupply

fundamentalstogetherwithhighstoragelevelsandunseasonablymildweatherkeptnaturalgasmarketsstableoverthe2023/24

heatingseason

1

.Whilethe2023/24gaswinterwasmilderonaverage,itwasaccompaniedbyseverecoldspellsandgas

demandspikes,whichhighlightedtheimportanceofgassupplyflexibilityforenergysecurity.

Afterrebalancingin2023,naturalgasmarketsareexpectedto

returntostrongerdemandgrowthin2024,primarilydrivenbythe

industrialandpowersectorsinthefast-growingeconomiesofAsia.

Thecontinuedexpansionofrenewablesandimprovingnuclear

availabilityarelikelytoweighongas-firedpowergenerationin

maturemarkets.Highstoragelevelscouldcontributetothefurthereasingofmarketfundamentalsoverthe2024summer.

Geopoliticaltensionsrepresentthegreatestrisktotheshort-term

outlook.LNGtradehashaltedacrosstheRedSeasincethestartoftheyear,whileRussia'songoingattacksonenergyinfrastructure

includingstoragepersist.Inthiscontext,securityofsupplyfor

1Theheatingseason(orgaswinter)inthemarketsoftheNorthernHemispherereferstotheperiodbetween1Octoberand31March.

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|1

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Tableofcontents

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|2

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 3

Gasmarketupdate 9

Low-emissionsgases 39

Annex 50

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

Executivesummary

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|4

Amildwinterkeptnaturalgasmarketsstablethroughthe2023/24heatingseason

Followingthegassupplyshockof2022,naturalgasmarketsmovedtowardsagradualrebalancingin2023andremainedrelativelycalmoverthe2023/24NorthernHemispherewinter.Unseasonablymild

winterweatherconditions,togetherwithimprovingsupply

fundamantalskeptnaturalgasmarketsstable.AsianandEuropeanspotgaspricesfelltopre-crisislevelsinQ12024andintheUnitedStatesHenryHubpricesplummetedtomulti-decadelows.While

the2023/24winterwasmilderonaverage,itwasaccompaniedbyseveralcoldspellsandgasdemandspikes,whichhighlightedthe

importanceofgassupplyflexibilityforenergysecurity.Thisforecastexpectsnaturalgasdemandtoincreaseby2.3%in2024,primarilydrivenbyfast-growingAsianmarkets.

Unseasonablymildweatherlimitednaturalgasdemandgrowthoverthe2023/24winter

Naturalgasconsumptionincreasedbyanestimated2%,oralmost40billioncubicmetres,year-on-year(y-o-y)duringthe2023/24

winterinthemarketscoveredinthecurrentQuarterlyGasReport.

Demandgrowthwaslargelysupportedbyhighergasuseinthepowerandindustrialsectors,whileanunseasonablymildwinterdepressedspaceheatingrequirementsinthekeymarketsoftheNorthernHemisphere.IntheUnitedStates,residentialand

commercialgasdemanddroppedbyalmost8%y-o-y,whileinEuropeitdeclinedbyanestimated2%comparedtothealreadyverylowlevelsofthe2022/23winter.

Severecoldspellsledtorecord-breakingdemandspikesacrossNorthernHemispheremarkets

Despitebeinganunusuallymildwinteronaverage,the2023/24

heatingseasonwitnessedseveralcoldspells,whichresultedin

record-breakingdemandspikesacrosskeymarketsintheNorthernHemisphere.IntheUnitedStates,WinterStormHeatherdrove

naturalgasusetoanall-timehighofalmost4bcmadayon

16January2024-about30%abovethedailydemandaverageovertheDecember–Februaryperiod.InEurope,dailygasdemand

surgedbyalmost40%inonlysixdaystoanestimated2.5bcmadayinearlyJanuary.Colderweathercoincidedwithlowerwind

poweroutput,increasingdemandforbothspaceheating

requirementsandgas-to-powerdemand.InRussia,atwo-week

coldspellinJanuaryledtoseveraldemandspikes,withgas

demandsurgingto1.78bcmon12January2024,itshighestlevelonrecord.Chinafacedseveralcoldsnapsoverthe2023/24winterseason,withgasdemandrisingtoanall-timehighof1.42bcmadayinmid-December2023.Thecoldspelldroveuptransmissionpipelineutilisationratestoabove90%ofcapacityforthefirsttime.

Theseeventshighlightthecriticalimportanceofgassupplyflexibilityforenergysecurity,includinginmarketswhichareincreasinglyreliantonweather-sensitiverenewablepower

generation,whileusinggas-firedpowerplantsasaback-upoption.

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|5

AsianandEuropeangaspricesdroppedtobelowpre-crisislevelsinQ12024

Unseasonablymildweathercoincidedwithimprovingsupply

fundamentalsoverthe2023/24winterseason.HigherLNG

production,upby3%y-o-y,togetherwithstrongerpipedgas

deliveriestoEuropeandChinafurthereasedmarketfundamentals.ThisinturnprovideddownwardpressureonAsianandEuropean

spotprices,whichdroppedbelowpre-crisislevelsinQ12024.IntheUnitedStates,thecontinuedproductiongrowthcombinedwithweakdemanddepressednaturalgaspricestotheirlowestMarchaverageinmorethanthreedecades.

Softerpricessupportedhighernaturalgasconsumptioninthe

industrialsectors.Firstestimatessuggestthatthecombined

industrialgasdemandinChina,Europe,IndiaandtheUnited

States,whichaccountsformorethanhalfofglobalindustrialgas

use,increasedbycloseto8%y-o-y.Industrialgasdemandin

Europeisshowingsignsofrecoverywithpreliminarydataindicatinganincreaseofaround15%y-o-ythroughthe2023/24winter,albeitremaining10%belowits2020/21levels.

Highstoragelevelscouldcontributetothefurthereasingofmarketfundamentalsoverthe2024summer

Storagesitesclosedthe2023/24heatingseasonwell-abovetheirfive-yearaveragebothinEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Inthe

EuropeanUnion(EU),storagesiteswere58%fullattheendof

March,withinventoriesstanding45%abovetheirfive-yearaverage.Storageinjections35%belowtheirfive-yearaveragewouldsufficetoreachtheEU’s90%fillleveltargetbythestartofthe2024/25

winter.Lowerinjectiondemandoverthesummer2024couldcontributetoafurthereasingofmarketfundamentals.

Geopolticaltensionscoulddistorttheshort-termmarketoutlook

Globalgasdemandisforecasttogrowby2.3%in2024,revised

downfrom2.5%followingamildQ1.Demandgrowthisexpectedtobeconcentratedinfast-growingAsianmarkets.Industryemerges

astheprimarydriverofgrowth,followedbyresidentialand

commercialsectors.Gas-to-powerdemandisforecasttoincreaseonlymarginally,ashighergasburnintheAsia-Pacificregion,NorthAmericaandtheMiddleEastisexpectedtobepartlyoffsetbythecontinuedreductionsinEurope.LowerhydroavailabilityinChina,IndiaandCentralandSouthAmerica,couldincreasethecallon

gas-firedpowerplants.

DemandgrowthinkeymarketsinAsiaandEuropewillbecappedbythelimitedincreaseinglobalLNGsupply,whichisexpectedtogrowbyamere3%.However,thisforecastcomeswithan

unusuallywiderangeofuncertainty.Potentialstart-updelaysatnewliquefactionplants,atensegeopoliticalcontext,worseningfeedgasissuesatlegacyprojectsandshippingconstraintsallrepresentdownwardriskstothecurrentoutlook.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|6

Gasdemandgrowthremainedsubduedthroughthe2023/24heatingseasonamidstmildwinterweatherconditions

Estimatedyear-on-yearchangeinnaturalgasdemandinselectedmarkets*overthe2023/24heatingseason

bcm

1780

1770

1760

1750

1740

1730

1720

2022/23ResidentialandIndustryPower2023/24

commercial

IEA.CCBY4.0.

*Asia,CentralandSouthAmerica,Eurasia,Europe,NorthAmerica.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Executivesummary

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|7

Awinterofpeaks:coldspellsdrove-upnaturalgasdemandtoall-timehighsinseveralmarketsthroughthe2023/24heatingseason

Dailyaverageandpeaknaturalgasdemandacrosskeygasmarketsduringthe2023/24winter

IEA.CCBY4.0.

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|8

Asianmarketsareexpectedtodrivegasdemandgrowthin2024

Year-on-yearchangeinnaturalgasdemandbyregion,2019–2024

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

200

160

120

80

40

0

-40

-80

-

120

-

160

-

200

201920202021202220232024

(forecast)

Y-o-ychangein%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

AfricaAsiaPacificCentralandSouthAmericaEurasiaEuropeMiddleEastNorthAmericaY-o-ychange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|9

Gasmarketupdate

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Gasmarketupdate

Unseasonablymildweatherweighedonnaturalgasdemandgrowthoverthe2023/24winter

todecadelowsinQ12024.InCentralandSouthAmericatheheatwavesofthesouthernhemispheresummerincreasedthecallongas-firedpowerplantsamidhighercoolingdemandandlowerhydroavailability.Initialdatasuggestthatgasdemandintheregionincreasedby3%y-o-y.ThisgrowthwaslargelydrivenbyBrazil,withthecountry’sgas-firedpowergenerationsurgingby15%y-o-yovertheOctober2023-March2024period.

NaturalgasdemandinAsiaincreasedbyanestimated6%y-o-y(or25bcm)overtheOctober2023-March2024period.Chinacontinuestodrivetheregion’sgasdemandgrowth,withthecountry’sgasconsumptionrisingby9%(orover18bcm)y-o-y,amidhighergasuseacrossallend-usesectors.LowernaturalgaspricescontinuedtostimulategasdemandinIndia,withgasuseinindustryrisingbyanimpressive15%y-o-yduringtheOctober2023-February2024period.Naturalgasdemandcontinuedtodeclineinthematuremarketsoftheregion(JapanandKorea)amidimprovingnuclearavailability.

NaturalgasconsumptioninOECDEuropefellby1%(or3bcm)y-o-yduringthe2023/24heatingseason.Thestrongexpansionofrenewablestogetherwithimprovingnuclearavailabilityreducedgas-firedpowergeneration,whilemildwinterweatherdepressedgasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors.Naturalgasconsumption

Followingthecontractionin2022,globalgasdemandreturnedtogrowthinH22023amidalowerpriceenvironmentandimprovingsupplyfundamentals.ThistrendcontinuedduringtheOctober2023-March2024period,whichmarkstheheatingseasoninthenorthernhemisphere.HigherLNGproduction(upby3%y-o-y),togetherwithstrongerpipedgasdeliveriestoEuropeandChina,furthereasedsupplyfundamentalsandsupporteddemandgrowth.

Preliminarydatasuggestthatnaturalgasdemandincreasedby2%(oralmost40bcm)y-o-yinthemarketscoveredbythismarketupdate,

2

primarilydrivenbyAsia,EurasiaandCentralandSouthAmerica.Demandgrowthwaslargelysupportedbyhighergasuseintheindustrialandpowersectors,whileanunseasonablymildwinterdepressedgasconsumptionintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsinEuropeandNorthAmerica.

InNorthAmericanaturalgasdemandremainedbroadlyflatontheyearoverthe2023/24heatingseason.Whilegas-firedpowergenerationcontinuedtoexpandstrongly,thesegainsweremorethanoffsetbythesteepdeclineindemandseenintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsamidunseasonablymildweatherconditions.Despitesubdueddemand,naturalgasoutputrosebyanestimated3%y-o-yintheUnitedStates.Continuedproductiongrowthcombinedwithweakdemanddepressednaturalgasprices,whichfell

2AsiaPacific,CentralandSouthAmerica,Eurasia,EuropeandNorthAmerica.

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PAGE|10

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|11

inindustrycontinuedtorecoverovertheheatingseason,benefitingfromimprovinggassupplyavailabilityandalowerpriceenvironment.

InEurasianaturalgasdemandrosebyanestimated4%y-o-yduringthe2023/24heatingseason.Acolderwintersupportedhigherspaceheatingrequirements,whilelowernuclearavailabilityinRussiaincreasedthecallongas-firedpowerplants.Russia’snaturalgasproductionincreasedby7%(or20bcm)y-o-yovertheOctober2023-February2024period.Thisgrowthwaspartlydrivenbystrongerpipedgasexports,includingtoChina,EuropeandCentralAsia,aswellashigherLNGsuppliesandrisingdomesticdemand.Thecountryfacedseveralcoldspells.On12January2024domesticgasdemandsurgedto1.78bcm–itshighestlevelonrecord.InCentralAsianaturalgasproductionincreasedmarginallyamidhigheroutputinKazakhstanandTurkmenistan,whileUzbekistanrecordedadropof8%(or1.7bcm)y-o-yduringtheperiodOctober2023-February2024.InAzerbaijannaturalgasproductionroseby3%duringthesameperiod,supportedbyhighergasexportsandstrongerdomesticdemand.

Globalgasdemandisforecasttogrowby2.3%in2024.We

anticipategrowthbeingcappedinimportmarketsbythelimited

increaseinglobalLNGsupply,whichisexpectedtoexpandbya

mere3%(or16bcm).Industryisexpectedtoaccountforaround

45%ofincrementalgasdemandin2024.Thisispartlysupportedbycontinuingeconomicexpansioninthefast-growingAsianmarkets,aswellasrecoveryinEurope’sindustrialgasdemand–albeit

remainingwellbelowitspre-crisislevels.Followingan

unseasonablymildQ1inEuropeandNorthAmerica,naturalgas

demandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsisexpectedto

increaseby2.3%globallyin2024,assumingaverageweather

conditionsinQ4.Gasdemandinthepowersectorisforecastto

increaseonlymarginally,ashighergasburninthefast-growing

Asianmarketsandthegas-richcountriesofAfrica,theMiddleEastandNorthAmericaispartiallyoffsetbytheexpecteddeclinesin

Europe.

GasdemandintheAsiaPacificregionisexpectedtoexpandby

over4%comparedto2023,supportedbyindustrialactivityand

highergasuseinthepowersector.Hence,theAsiaPacificregion

isexpectedtoaccountformorethan40%ofincrementalgas

demandin2024.GasconsumptioninNorthAmericaisprojectedtoincreasebylessthan1%in2024andbyjust2%inCentraland

SouthAmerica.InEuropenaturalgasdemandisforecasttogrowbylessthan2%,remainingalmost20%belowits2021levels.Whilegasuseinindustryandforspaceheatingisexpectedtorecover,

gas-firedgenerationissettodeclinefurther.Combinedgasdemandinthegas-richmarketsofAfricaandtheMiddleEastisforecasttoincreasebycloseto3%.Eurasiangasdemandisprojectedtogrowbynear2.5%amidhigherdemandinindustryandtheresidential

andcommercialsectors.

GasMarketReport,Q4-2023

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|12

Asiadrovenaturalgasdemandgrowthduringthe2023/24northernhemispherewinter

Estimatedy-o-ychangeinnaturalgasdemand,keyregions,October2023-March2024

bcm

1780

1770

1760

1750

1740

1730

1720

NorthAmericaEurope2023/24

2022/23Asia*EurasiaCentralandSouth

America

IEA.CCBY4.0.

*Bangladesh,People’sRepublicofChina,India,Indonesia,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines,SingaporeandThailand.

GasMarketReport,Q4-2023

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|13

Industryisexpectedtoaccountfornearly45%ofincrementalgasdemandin2024

World

AsiaPacific

Eurasia

MiddleEast

NorthAmerica

Africa

CentralandSouthAmerica

Europe

Forecastchangeinnaturalgasconsumptionbyregionandsector,2024vs2023

ONetchange

-20020406080100

ResidentialandcommercialPowerIndustryOthersectorsbcm

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|14

NorthAmericangasdemanddeclinedmarginallyduringthe2023/24heatingseason

NaturalgasconsumptioninNorthAmericaremainedbroadlyflat

overthe2023/24heatingseason.Whilegas-firedpowergenerationcontinuedtoexpandstrongly,thesegainswerealmostentirely

offsetbyunseasonablymildweatherconditions,whichweighedonspaceheatingrequirementsbothinCanadaandtheUnitedStates.

IntheUnitedStatesnaturalgasconsumptiondroppedbyan

estimated0.4%(or2bcm)y-o-yoverthe2023/24winter.While

overallnaturalgasdemanddeclinedduringtheheatingseason,

winterstormHeatherdroveupnaturalgasusetoanall-timehighofover3.9bcm/don16January2024.Thishighlightsthecrucial

importanceofgassupplyflexibilitytothebroaderenergysystem.Onaverage,heatingdegreedaysweredownby6%comparedto

the2022/23winterperiod,whichreducedspaceheating

requirements.Firstestimatesindicatethatgasdemandinthe

residentialandcommercialsectorsdeclinedbyaround7.5%(or

13bcm)y-o-y.Heatingintensityintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsmarginallydeclined,whichsuggeststhatnon-weather-

relatedfactors(includingenergyefficiencyandelectrificationof

heat)mighthavealsocontributedtothelowergasuseinbuildings.

Incontrast,gasburninthepowersectorcontinuedtoexpandandrosebycloseto6%(or9bcm)comparedtothe2022/23heatingseason.Thisstronggrowthwasprimarilysupportedbycoal-to-gasswitching,whileelectricitydemandrosebyamarginal1%y-o-y.

Thesteepdeclineingasprices(down40%y-o-y)increasedthe

cost-competitivenessofgas-firedgenerationvis-à-viscoal-fired

powerplants,whichsawtheirproductionplummetingby9%y-o-y.Hence,theshareofnaturalgasinpowergenerationrosefrom39%overthe2022/23wintertonear41%inthe2023/24heatingseason.

Naturalgasdemandinindustrygrewbyanestimated1.5%(or

2bcm)y-o-y,althoughremainingbelowits2021/22levels.

InCanadanaturalgasdemandremainedbroadlyflatcomparedtothe2022/23heatingseason.SimilarlytotheUnitedStates,

unseasonablymildweatherconditionsweighedongasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors,whichdeclinedby10%y-o-yduringOctober2023-January2024.Combinedgasdemandintheindustrialandpowersectorsroseby7%y-o-yduringthesame

period,largelysupportedbystrongergas-firedgenerationattheexpenseofcoal-firedpowerplants.InMexiconaturalgas

consumptiongrewbyanestimated5%(or3bcm)y-o-yduring

October2023-March2024,amidthecontinuedexpansionofgas-firedpowergeneration.

FollowingamildQ1,naturalgasdemandinNorthAmericais

forecasttoincreasebylessthan1%in2024asawhole.Thepowersectorisexpectedtodrivethisgrowth,withalowgasprice

environmentsupportingcoal-to-gasswitching.Gasdemandinindustryisexpectedtodeclinemarginallyamidaweakmacro-economicenvironment.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|15

LowerspaceheatingdemandweighedongasuseintheUnitedStatesoverthe2023/24winter

Estimatedy-o-ychangeinquarterlynaturalgasdemand,UnitedStates,2021-2023

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

Y-o-ychangein%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

2021Q1

2021Q2

2021Q3

2021Q4

2022Q1

Residentialandcommercial

202220222022

Q2Q3Q4

PowerIndustry

2023

Q1Others

20232023

Q2Q3oY-o-ychange

2023Q4

2024Q1

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonEIA(2024),

NaturalGasConsumption;

NaturalGasWeeklyUpdate.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|16

NaturalgasdemandinCentralandSouthAmericareturnedtogrowthinH22023

Followingadeclineof1%in2022,naturalgasconsumptionin

CentralandSouthAmericaremainedbroadlyflatin2023.Whilegasdemandcontractedbyaround2%(or1bcm)y-o-yinH12023,thisdeclinewasalmostentirelyoffsetbythedemandgrowthrecordedinH22023.Preliminarydataindicatethattheregion’snaturalgas

consumptionincreasedby3%y-o-yovertheOctober2023-March2024period,primarilysupportedbyhighergasburninthepowersector.

InArgentina–theregion’slargestgasmarket–naturalgas

consumptionfellby1%in2023.Gasdemandintheresidentialandcommercialsectorsdeclinedby3.5%(or0.4bcm)y-o-y.The

declinewasentirelyconcentratedduringthesouthernhemisphere

winterseason(April-September),whenmilderweatherconditions

weighedonspaceheatingrequirements.Incontrast,gasdemandinindustryrosebymorethan4%(or0.5bcm)y-o-yin2023.Gasburninthepowersectordeclinedby2%(or0.3bcm)y-o-yin2023,amidstronggrowthinhydropoweroutput.

NaturalgasconsumptioninBrazilfellbyanestimated9%(or

2.5bcm)in2023.Healthyhydroavailability(upby1%)andthe

continuedexpansionofwindandsolarreducedthecallongas-firedpowerplants,withtheiroutputtumblingby20%y-o-yin2023.Thedeclineingas-firedgenerationwaslargelyconcentratedinthe

periodsofhigherhydroavailability(Q1andAugust-October).LowerhydropoweroutputinApril-Juneledtoatemporaryincreaseingas-

firedgeneration,whiletheheatwaveinNovember-Decemberdrove

upgas-firedpowergenerationby32%y-o-yonhighercooling

demand.Theseepisodeshighlighttheback-uproleofgas-fired

powerplantsinBrazil’selectricitysystem.Duetolowergas

demand,BrazilreduceditspipedgasimportsfromBoliviaby11%(or0.65bcm),whileitsLNGinflowsdroppedby55%(or1.65bcm)in2023.InitialdataindicatethatBrazil’sgasdemandgrewbynear15%y-o-yinQ12024amidstrongergasburninthepowersector.

InTrinidadandTobagonaturalgasconsumptiondeclinedby3%(or0.5bcm)y-o-yin2023,amidlowergas-to-powerdemand(downby1%)andreducedgasuseinindustry(downby4%).InVenezuelaobservedgasconsumptiongrewby3.5%(or0.6bcm)2023.

Colombia’sgasconsumptionroseby4%(or0.8bcm)in2023amidstrongergas-firedgeneration(upby20%).Gasdemandgrewby

25%y-o-yinQ12024,primarilydrivenbythesurgeingas-fired

powergenerationamidasizzlingheatwaveandlowerhydro

availability.GasdemandgrewstronglyinCentralAmericaandthemarketsoftheCaribbeanSea.TheircombinedLNGimportssurgedby35%in2023.

ThisforecastexpectsnaturalgasdemandinCentraland

SouthAmericatoincreaseby2%in2024.Adrysummer,which

supportedstrongergas-firedpowergeneration,andtheindustrial

sectorareexpectedtoprovideroomfornaturalgasdemandgrowth.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|17

HeatwavesdroveupnaturalgasdemandinCentralandSouthAmericainsummer2023/24

Estimatedy-o-ychangeinquarterlynaturalgasdemand,CentralandSouthAmerica,Q12023-Q12024

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

2

1

0

-1

-2

2023Q2

2023Q3

2023Q1

2024Q1

2023Q4

Y-o-ychangein%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

ArgentinaBrazilColombiaOthersTotalY-o-ychange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonANP(2023),

BoletimMensaldaProdu??odePetróleoeGásNatural;

BMC(2023),

InformesMensuale

s;CentralBankofTrinidadandTobago(2023),

Statistics;

CNE(2023),

GeneraciónbrutaSEN;

ENARGAS(2023),

DatosAbiertos;

ICIS(2023),

ICISLNGEdge;

IEA(2023),

MonthlyGasDataService;

JODI(2023),

GasDatabase;

MME(2023),

BoletimMensaldeAcompanhamentodaIndustriadeGásNatural;

OSINERG(2023),

Reportediariodelaoperacióndelossistemasdetransportedegasnatural.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2024

Gasmarketupdate

IEACCBY4.0.

PAGE|18

NaturalgasdemandinAsiacontinuedtoexpandoverthe2023/24heatingseason

NaturalgasdemandinAsiareturnedtogrowthin2023and

expandedbyanestimated6%y-o-yduringthe2023/24winter

seasonofthenorthernhemisphere.ThisgrowthwaslargelydrivenbyastrongincreaseingasdemandinChina,IndiaandemergingAsianmarkets.Naturalgasdemandcontinuedtodeclineinthe

maturemarketso