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January2025
SummaryandOilMarketContext
Demand
OPEChasmaintaineditsglobaloildemandgrowthforecastfor2025at1.4millionbarrelsperday(mb/d),whileprojectingdemandgrowthin2026toreach1.4mb/dyear-over-year.Mostofthisgrowth(approximately1.3mb/d)isexpectedtobedrivenbynon-OECDcountries.
TheEIAhaskeptitsglobaloildemandgrowthforecastunchangedatapproximately1.3millionbarrelsperday(b/d)year-over-yearfor2025.Thisrobustoildemandgrowthisexpectedtocontinuein2026,reaching1.1millionb/dyear-over-year.However,thisgrowthislessthanthepre-pandemic10-yearaverage(2010-2019)of1.5millionb/d.
TheIEAhasrevisedupitsestimatesofglobaloildemandgrowthforthefourthquarterof2024byapproximately0.26mb/d,comparedtothepreviousmonth'srevision.Globaloildemandgrowthfor2024isnowassessedat0.94mb/d,withanaccelerationto1.05mb/dexpectedin2025astheeconomicoutlookimprovesmarginally.
Supply
OPECmaintaineditsnon-DoCliquidssupplygrowthforecastfor2025at1.2mb/dy/y,unchangedfromlastmonth'sassessment.Thenon-DoCliquidssupplygrowthin2026isalsoforecasttogrowby1.2mb/d.ThemaingrowthdriversareexpectedtobetheUS,Brazil,andCanadainbothyears.
TheEIAprojectionsfornon-DoCsupplygrowthin2025areexpectedtoreachapproximately1.7mb/dyear-over-year,whilethegrowthforecastfor2026isprojectedtoreach0.9mb/dy/y.TheEIAhasalsomaintaineditscrudeoilproductionforecastfortheUSat13.5mb/dfor2025andprojectsittomoderatelyincreaseto13.6mb/dby2026.
TheIEAprojectsnon-DoCsupplygrowthtoreach1.5mb/dy/yby2025,reaching62.9mb/d,whileitsestimateofnon-OPECsupplygrowthisapproximately1.7mb/dy/y.
Thethreeagencies'forecastsfornon-DoCsupplygrowthshowdivergencein2025,withaprojecteddifferenceof0.5millionbarrelsperdayyear-over-year.
2
2024OutlookComparison
3
Summaryof2024BalancesandRevisions
?TheIEAhasadjusteditsforecastofglobaloildemandgrowthforQ42024upwardby0.3mb/d,whichhasdriventheyear-over-yearestimatetomodestlyincreaseby0.1mb/d.
?TheEIAhasreviseditsestimateofglobaldemandgrowthforthefullyearof2024downwardby0.3mb/d,drivenbyadjustedestimatesfromnon-OECDcountries.
2024BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q242Q243Q244Q24
20242024Y/Y
1Q242Q243Q244Q24
20242024Y/Y
GlobalDemand
IEA
OPECEIA
101.4
102.6
103.6
104.0
102.9
102.8
0.91.50.9
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.10.1
-0.1
-0.30.0
101.9
102.8
103.0
103.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
OECDDemand
IEA
OPECEIA
44.8
45.6
46.1
46.4
45.7
45.7
0.10.10.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.10.1
0.1
0.00.1
44.8
45.6
46.1
46.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
Non-OECDDemand
IEA
OPECEIA
56.6
57.0
57.5
57.6
57.2
57.1
0.91.40.9
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.00.0
-0.1
57.1
57.2
56.8
57.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
75.0
75.8
76.2
76.3
75.81.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.00.0
OPECNGLs
EIA
75.3
75.7
75.9
76.4
75.90.7
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
IEA
OPECEIA
60.3
61.5
61.8
62.1
61.4
61.7
1.51.41.5
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
60.6
61.5
61.9
62.6
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
CallonOPECCrude
IEA
26.5
26.7
27.4
27.7
27.10.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.10.1
EIA
26.6
27.1
27.0
27.0
26.90.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
-0.20.1
CallonDoCCrude
IEA
OPECEIA
41.1
41.1
41.8
41.9
41.5
41.1
-0.60.1-0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.10.1
-0.1
-0.30.1
41.3
41.3
41.0
40.8
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
GlobalStockChangeandMisctoBalance**
IEA
OPECEIA
0.40.00.2
0.50.0-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.3
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
Unavailablethismonth
4
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Evolutionof2024AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
?ThegapbetweenOPEC’sgrowthestimatesandIEAandEIAassessmentsofglobaldemandremainsabove0.5mb/dy/y,withtherateofgrowthinanoveralldecliningtrend.
?Thedivergenceinestimatesofglobaldemandoriginatesfromdifferentestimatesofnon-OECDdemandgrowth.
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
-0.5
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
5
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Evolutionof2024AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts
?Thedivergenceinnon-OPECsupplygrowthforecastsbetweentheEIAandIEAhaswidened,nowexceeding0.3mb/d,incontrasttotheminimaldifferencesobservedinJuneofthepreviousyear.
?EstimatesdevelopedbythethreeenergyagenciesaremorealignedonUSsupplygrowthforecasts.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Non-DoCSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
1.6
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
IEAOPECEIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMRNote:BeginninginMay2024,OPECstoppedpublishingsupplyforecastsfornon-OPECmembersoftheDeclaration
ofCooperation(DoCorcommonlyknownasOPEC+)
6
2025OutlookComparison
7
Summaryof2025BalancesandRevisions
?OPECadjusteditsprojectionsforglobaldemandgrowthdownwardby0.1mb/dforthefullyearin2025,primarilyduetoadecreaseinanticipatedgrowthfromnon-OECDnations,whiley/yestimateremainsunchangedat1.4mb/d.
?TheIEAhasreviseditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastupwardbyapproximately0.1mb/dforthefullyearof2025,whiletheEIAreviseditsforecastdownwardby0.2mb/d.
2025BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q252Q253Q254Q25
20252025Y/Y
1Q252Q253Q254Q25
20252025Y/Y
IEA
102.7
103.7
104.7
104.7
104.0
1.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
GlobalDemand
OPEC
104.2
104.3
105.5
106.7
105.2
1.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
EIA
103.7
103.7
104.4
104.5
104.1
1.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
IEA
45.1
45.5
46.1
46.0
45.7
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
44.9
45.6
46.5
46.5
45.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
EIA
45.6
45.4
46.2
46.3
45.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
IEA
57.6
58.2
58.6
58.7
58.3
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
59.3
58.7
59.0
60.2
59.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
EIA
58.0
58.3
58.2
58.2
58.2
1.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.1
Non-OPECSupply*and
IEA
76.1
77.4
78.0
78.4
77.5
1.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
OPECNGLs
EIA
76.5
77.2
77.9
78.3
77.5
1.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
IEA
61.6
62.8
63.4
63.7
62.9
1.5
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
OPEC
62.4
62.5
62.6
63.2
62.7
1.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
62.5
63.1
63.8
64.1
63.4
1.7
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
CallonOPEC
IEA
26.6
26.3
26.7
26.4
26.5
-0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
EIA
27.2
26.5
26.5
26.2
26.6
-0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1
IEA
41.1
40.9
41.3
41.0
41.1
-0.4
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
CallonDoCCrude
OPEC
41.8
41.9
42.9
43.5
42.5
0.3
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
EIA
41.2
40.6
40.6
40.4
40.7
-0.4
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.2
GlobalStockChangeand
Misc.toBalance**
EIA
-0.5
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
8
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Evolutionof2025AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
?OPEChasmaintaineditsglobaldemandgrowthforecastunchangedat1.45mb/dy/y.
?BoththeEIAandIEAreviseddowntheirnon-OECDdemandgrowthforecastsbyapproximately0.1mb/dy/y.
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
9
OPECestimatesofglobaldemandgrowthforecastsare0.4mb/d
higherthanthoseprojectedbytheIEA
2025DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Global
TotalOECDTotalNon-OECDOECDAmericasOtherNon-OECD OECDEuropeIndia
China Russia AfricaMiddleEastOECDAsia
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Rangein2025DemandGrowth
Forecasts
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
millionbarrelsperday
10
Evolutionof2025AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts
?TheforecastsforUSsupplygrowthacrossagenciesaremorealigned.
?TheEIAandIEAbothadjustedtheirforecastsfornon-OPECsupplygrowthdownwardforthesecondconsecutivemonth.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Non-DoCSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2025Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Jan-25
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMRNote:BeginninginMay2024,OPECstoppedpublishingsupplyforecastsfornon-OPECmembersoftheDeclaration
ofCooperation(DoCorcommonlyknownasOPEC+)
11
Totalnon-DoCsupplygrowthforecastsbytheEIAexceedOPEC
forecastsbymorethan0.5mb/d
2025SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEAOPEC
EIA
1.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2
Rangein2025SupplyGrowthForecasts
0.6
TotalNon-DoC
0.2
Canada
0.1
DoCNGLs
0.1
0.1
US
Brazil
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
ChinaMiddleEast
0.1
S.Am.ex.Brazil AfricaNorway
millionbarrelsperday
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
12
TheaverageOPEC'callonDoC'for2025surpassesEIA
estimatesbyapproximately2mb/d
2025CallonDoCandRecentDoCProductionLevels
millionbarrelsperday
44
43
?The“callonDoCcrude”isacalculationandnota
forecastofactualproduction.
?The“callonDoC”estimateswhatOPEC+wouldneedtoproducetobalanceglobal
supplyanddemand.
?Itisestimatedbysubtractingaforecastfornon-DoC
productionandDoCNGLsfromglobaldemand.
42
41
40
39
38
1Q252Q253Q254Q252025Avg
IEAOPECEIAApril'24DoCCrudeProductionLevel
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
13
2026OutlookComparison
14
Summaryof2026BalancesandRevisions
?OPECforecaststhatglobaloildemandwillgrowby1.4mb/dy/yin2026,whiletheEIAprojectsanincreaseof1.1mb/dforthesameperiod.
?Thegrowthinglobaloildemandin2026willbedrivenbydemandfromnon-OECDnations.
2026BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q262Q263Q264Q26
20262026Y/Y
1Q262Q263Q264Q26
20262026Y/Y
GlobalDemand
IEA
OPECEIA
105.6104.6
105.7104.8
107.1105.5
108.0105.6
106.6105.1
1.41.1
OECDDemand
IEA
OPECEIA
45.145.6
45.745.4
46.746.2
46.546.2
46.045.9
0.10.0
Non-OECDDemand
IEA
OPECEIA
60.558.9
60.159.4
60.459.4
61.559.4
60.659.3
1.31.1
Non-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLs
IEAEIA
77.978.478.879.1
78.61.1
Non-DoCSupply*andDoCNGLs
IEA
OPECEIA
63.663.7
63.564.2
63.964.5
64.664.8
63.964.3
1.20.9
CallonOPEC
IEAEIA
26.626.426.826.6
26.60.0
CallonDoCCrude
IEA
OPECEIA
42.040.8
42.240.6
43.341.0
43.440.8
42.740.8
0.20.1
GlobalStockChangeand
Misc.toBalance**
IEA
OPECEIA
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastforglobalstockchanges
Unavailablethismonth
15
Appendix
16
IEFReleaseScheduleofMonthlyComparativeAnalysis
andIEA,OPECandEIAReportsin2025
IEF
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Thursday,16January
Wednesday,15January
Wednesday,15January
Tuesday,14January
Thursday,13February
Thursday,13February
Wednesday,12February
Tuesday,11February
Thursday,13March
Thursday,13March
Wednesday,12March
Tuesday,11March
Tuesday,15April
Tuesday,15April
Monday,14April
Tuesday,8April
Thursday,15May
Thursday,15May
Wednesday,14May
Tuesday,6May
Tuesday,17June
Tuesday,17June
Monday,16June
Tuesday,
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