高盛-2025年3月中國電池產(chǎn)業(yè)核心數(shù)據(jù)圖表手冊-2025-03-零部件

GlobalInvestmentResearch

ChinaBatteryChartbook

Mar2025

EricShen

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

+852-2978-7954

eric.shen@

TrinaChen

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

+852-2978-2678

trina.chen@

QiyingWei

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

+852-2978-6426

qiying.wei@

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

tat1Ourlatestviewonthesector

oStrongerthanexpectedMarchshipmentsstrengthensourcyclicalrecoveryview:

?AccordingtoICCSino,March2025willlikelybeasurprisinglystrongmonthforChinabatteryshipments,withamomincreaseof+15%(vs.consensusexpectationofsingledigit);

?LFPcathodesstandoutintheupstreamonthehighestutilizationofc.90%;

?Weviewthestrongerthanexpectedbatterymonthlyshipmentsasapotentialcatalystforshareprices.

oWeinitiateYunengatBuywithkeythesis:

?WellpositionedtoenjoyvolumegrowthandmarginexpansionfromtheupcomingLFPcathodeindustryupcycle;

?Ontopofthecyclicaluptrend,webelieveLFPcathodeiterationshouldaidmarginrecoveryforYuneng,alongwithitsstrongeconomiesofscaleandcustomerbase;

?Ourforecastsimply2024-2026EEPSCAGRof~187%onthebackof35%volumegrowthandGPMexpansion(comparedtothe2020-2022upcycleof538%on187%volumeCAGR).

oOurtakeawaysonnewpolicies’impactonBESSgrowth:

?IndependentBESSbusinessmodelsarenowonestepclosertomaturity;whilesupplyconcentrationonthebackofhigherqualityrequirements;

?WeestimatemaximumnegativevolumeimplicationsforCATL/CALB/EVEEnergy/Gotionat3%/4%/9%/5%basedontheshareofBESSintheiroverallshipments.Weconsiderthattheseimplicationswillbeshortterm,andwithaclearermarket-drivenBESS

demandoutlook,weexpectinvestorstolookthroughneartermvolatility.

oHowtothinkaboutthescaleandeconomyofBESS?Weprovidedatop-downmethodhere:

?WeexpectChina'srapidsolarinstallationtodrivesharpBESSgrowth,soastostabilizeagridsystemwithdecliningflexibilityincoalpowerutilization;

?TheBESS+solarsolutionreachedeconomicfeasibilityoverspotcoalpowerfrom2024E,thankstobatterydeflation;

?Thus,weforecastdemandforBESStotakeoffin2025-2026andsustainuntil2030Ewithcumulativeinstallationsof~3.2TWh.

GlobalInvestmentResearch2

SupplyChainUtilizationTrend-Mar

Mar2025Feb2024

Mar2025

MoM+5%

Mar2025

MoM+12%

Mar2025

MoM+13%

40%

60%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

80%

100%

20%

80%100%

40%60%

20%

Cathode-LFP

Anode

Cathode-NCM

4

60%80%

Mar2025

MoM+7%

Mar2025

MoM+10%

Mar2025

MoM+9%

20%

40%

100%

100%

80%

20%

40%

100%

60%80%

20%

40%60%

Separator

Battery

Electrolyte

*BasedonproductionschedulingpulsecheckontheselectedsamplecompaniesfromdatavendorForbatterymaterials,sampleonlyincludestop2-4players.

Source:ICCSINO,Reali,CompanyData,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch3

GlobalInvestmentResearch4

Weekly–BatteryCell

Cellprice-LFP

Rmb/KWh

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

2022202320242025

Pricespread–LFP/NCMcell

Batterypricespread(Rmb/KWh)

300

200

100

0

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

LFPNCM

Cellprice-NCM

Rmb/KWh

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

2022202320242025

PricePremium–NCMvs.LFPcell

NCMvs.LFPbatterypremium(Rmb/KWh)

20040%

15030%

10020%

5010%

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

00%

NCM/LFP(%,RHS)NCMvs.LFPAvg.sinceMay2021

Source:Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch5

Weekly–Cathode

Cathodeprice-LFP

kRmb/t

200

160

120

80

40

0

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

2022202320242025

Cathodeprice一NCM622

kRmb/t

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

0

2022202320242025

Cathodeprice一NCM523

kRmb/t

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

2022202320242025

Pricespread一LFP/NCM523/NCM622

Cathodespread(kRmb/t)

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

——Spread-LFPSpread-NCM523Spread-NCM622

Source:Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch6

Weekly–Anode

Anodeprice一high-end

Anodeprice一medium-end

kRmb/t

80

kRmb/t

60

50

40

30

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

20

2022202320242025

Anodeprice一lower-end

kRmb/t

40

35

30

25

20

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

15

2022202320242025

70

60

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

50

2022202320242025

Pricespread一Anode

Anodespread(kRmb/t)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

Spread-Highend——Spread-Mediumend——Spread-Lowend

Source:Wind,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch7

Weekly–Separator

Separatorprice一wet-based7μm

Rmb/sqm

2.2

1.8

1.4

1.0

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

0.6

2022202320242025

Separatorprice一dry-based12μm

Rmb/sqm

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

0.4

2022202320242025

Separatorprice一wet-based9μm

Rmb/sqm

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

0.6

2022202320242025

Separatorprice一dry-based14μm

Rmb/sqm

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

0.3

2022202320242025

Source:Wind,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch8

Weekly–Electrolyte

LiPF6price

kRmb/t

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

2022202320242025

Pricespread一LiPF6/Electrolyte3.2V

kRmb/t

500

400

300

200

100

0

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Oct-24

LiPF6spreadElectrolytespread(RHS)

40

30

20

10

0

-10

Electrolyteprice一3.2V

kRmb/t

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

4-Mar

18-Mar

1-Apr

15-Apr

29-Apr

13-May

27-May

10-Jun

24-Jun

8-Jul

22-Jul

5-Aug

19-Aug

2-Sep

16-Sep

30-Sep

14-Oct

28-Oct

11-Nov

25-Nov

9-Dec

23-Dec

2022202320242025

Electrolytegrossprofitsplit

kRmb/t

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20

Apr-21

Aug-21

Dec-21

Apr-22

Aug-22

Dec-22

Apr-23

Aug-23

Dec-23

Apr-24

Aug-24

Dec-24

fromrecipesfromLiPF6Electrolytegrossprofit

Source:Wind,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch9

Monthly–ChinaPowerBatteryOutput&Installation

Monthlyoutput

Output(GWh)-PowerBattery

100

80

60

40

20

0

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

95

87

828184

717575

5963

6362

534

6462646466

63

5857

4750

40

323236

3941

39

30

29

15

5

1

LFP

NCM

MonthlyoutputgrowthYoY

OutputYoYGrowth-PowerBattery

200%

160%

120%

80%

40%

0%

-40%

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

TotalNCMLFP

Monthlyinstallation

Installation(GWh)-PowerBattery

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Oct-24

Jan-25

35

75

67

59

55

47

48

40

43

39

35

34

42

2627

31

3235

25

36282839

21

19

13

22

14

24

16

13

18

5

2

1

LFP

NCM

MonthlyinstallationgrowthYoY

InstallationYoYGrowth-PowerBattery

200%

160%

120%

80%

40%

0%

-40%

-80%

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

Jan-25

TotalNCMLFP

AstheendofFeb2025.Source:CABIA,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch10

Monthly–ChinaEVBatteryInstallationbymakers

CATL

DomesticInstallation-CATL(GWh)MoMGrowth(%)

50

40

30

20

10

0

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

84%

33

48%

32%30%17%26%19%20%232428

12-15-16--41192216161-%19-15%2%18%19%17

6

89

-31%

-43%-49%

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

-70%

BatteryInstallationMoMGrowth

120%

80%

40%

0%

-40%

-80%

CALB

DomesticInstallation-CALB(GWh)MoMGrowth(%)

60

50

40

30

20

320%

233%

160%

80%

0%

-80%

-160%

240%

63%

110%

-1%9%7%24%-8%-6%-5%12%

23%7%3%3%4%-1%6%8%

10-72%-14%-32%-42%-7%-48%

0222223333332122333333342

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

0

BatteryInstallationMoMGrowth

BYD

DomesticInstallation-BYD(GWh)MoMGrowth(%)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

115%

-7%

248%221%-5%7%9%-1%-53%35%3%8%9%8%12%2%6%

-24%1213151516

-4%677899910109118-4%91010118

4-47%

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

BatteryInstallationMoMGrowth

160%

120%

80%

40%

0%

-40%

-80%

MktShrbyMakers

MktShrbyMakers(%)

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

3%

6%

26%

8%8%

28%29%

9%

7%

24%

7%

26%

8%

30%

7%

26%

7%

25%

6%6%6%5%5%

25%27%25%23%

34%

26%

48%44%44698%

48%

47%

49%

49%

46%

46%

45%45%

42%

CATLBYDCALB

AstheendofJan2025.Source:ICCSINO,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch11

Monthly–ChinaAnodeShipment

UtilizationRate(%)

160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%

BTRShanshanPutailaiXingchengIndustryAvg.

ArtificialGraphite

ktYear2025Month1

Salesvolume

CompanyJan-24Dec-24Jan-25YoY%MoM%2024YTD2025YTDYoY%

BTR25.029.029.618%2%25.029.618%

Shanshan18.037.535.094%-7%18.035.094%

Putailai9.517.516.068%-9%9.516.068%

Sinuo1.74.84.0135%-17%1.74.0135%

Xingcheng12.022.021.579%-2%12.021.579%

Kaijin9.012.511.022%-12%9.011.022%

XFH3.56.05.043%-17%3.55.043%

Zhengtuo0.20.90.8290%-13%0.20.8290%

Shangtai9.020.521.0133%2%9.021.0133%

Jinmei0.20.40.4105%-5%0.20.4105%

Xinmao2.82.52.80%12%2.82.80%

Jincan0.61.41.3117%-7%0.61.3117%

Yuling0.00.00.0

Total91.5155.0148.462%-4%91.5148.462%

AstheendofJan2025.Source:Reali,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch12

Monthly–ChinaSeparatorShipment

UtilizationRate(%)

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

SeniorTechYunnanEnergySinomaIndustryAvg.

WetSeparator

mnsqmYear2025Month1

200

690

245

330

61%

28%

105%

44%

61%

28%

105%

44%

115

530

100

180

115

530

100

180

185

680

205

260

185

680

205

260

SeniorTech

YunnanEnergySinoma

Gellec

Salesvolume

CompanyJan-24Dec-24Jan-25YoY%MoM%2024YTD2025YTDYoY%

-8%

-1%

-16%

-21%

CangzhouMingzhuLiaoyuanHongtu

Putailai

HoushengLanketu

BeixingMalion

Kanghui

Total

10

3

25

50

22

35

4

18

1,092

28

5

33

105

53

60

13

60

1,822

25

4

45

55

48

60

11

55

1,633

150%

60%

80%

10%

118%

71%

175%

206%

50%

-11%

-11%

36%

-48%

-9%

0%

-15%

-8%

-10%

10

3

25

50

22

35

4

18

1,092

25

4

45

55

48

60

11

55

1,633

150%

60%

80%

10%

118%

71%

175%

206%

50%

DrySeparator

mnsqmYear2025Month1

64%

3%

-24%

56%

14%

190

140

130

18

478

180

98

95

14

387

110

95

125

9

339

110.095.0125.09.0

180.098.0

95.0

14.0

387

64%

3%

-24%

56%

14%

-5%

-30%

-27%

-22%

-19%

339

Salesvolume

CompanyJan-24Dec-24Jan-25YoY%MoM%2024YTD2025YTDYoY%

SeniorTech

ZIMT

Huiqiang

CangzhouMingzhu

Total

AstheendofJan2025.Source:Reali,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch13

Monthly–ChinaBatteryExports(1)

Li-ionbatteryexportvolume

ExportVolume-Li-ionBattery(kt)YoYGrowth(%)

300150%

250120%

20090%

15060%

10030%

500%

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

0-30%

ExportVolumeYoYGrowth(RHS)

Li-ionbatteryexportunitprice

ExportUnitPrice-Li-ionBattery(kUSD/t)YoYGrowth(%)

35

30

25

20

15

10

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

-40%

ExportUnitPriceYoYGrowth(RHS)

NCMcathodeexportvolume

ExportVolume-NCMCathode(kt)YoYGrowth(%)

12

10

8

6

4

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

2

0

-50%

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

-100%

ExportVolumeYoYGrowth(RHS)

NCMcathodeexportunitprice

ExportUnitPrice-NCMCathode(kUSD/t)YoYGrowth(%)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

140%

100%

60%

20%

-20%

-60%

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Jan-24

Mar-24

May-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Nov-24

-100%

ExportUnitPriceYoYGrowth(RHS)

AstheendofDec2024.Source:ChinaCustoms,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch14

Monthly–ChinaBatteryExports(2)

ExportVolume

kt

Dec-23

Nov-24

Dec-24

YoY%

MoM%

2023YTD

2024YTD

YoY%

Li-ionBattery

Cathode

216.4

322.0

346.0

60%

7%

2,380.8

3,043.1

28%

LithiumCobaltOxide

2.2

3.0

2.8

27%

-6%

33.8

40.3

19%

NCM

5.7

5.6

5.6

-1%

1%

87.9

69.8

-21%

NCMPrecursor

13.9

7.9

10.6

-23%

34%

178.9

134.8

-25%

LFP

0.15

0.33

0.91

523%

172%

1.16

3.29

182%

Anode

ArtificialGraphite

39.8

39.6

58.2

46%

47%

561.0

564.6

1%

NaturalGraphite

1.2

6.0

3.6

205%

-40%

53.1

64.2

21%

AquamiformNaturalGraphite

1.4

8.5

5.9

315%

-30%

89.4

64.0

-28%

NaturalGraphite-PowderandFlakes

Separator

0.9

1.0

1.7

87%

66%

23.7

20.2

-15%

Polyethylene

4.2

3.9

5.1

20%

31%

62.6

42.4

-32%

Polypropylene

Electrolyte

0.2

0.3

0.1

-40%

-62%

1.7

2.2

31%

LiPF6

1.4

1.4

2.1

53%

53%

18.1

18.0

-1%

ExportUnitPrice

kUSD/t

Dec-23

Nov-24

Dec-24

YoY%

MoM%

2023YTD

2024YTD

YoY%

Li-ionBattery

Cathode

24.4

18.0

17.5

-28%

-3%

27.3

20.1

-26%

LithiumCobaltOxide

3.8

4.4

4.4

16%

-1%

3.4

3.3

-4%

NCM

31.2

23.5

21.0

-33%

-10%

43.5

25.4

-42%

NCMPrecursor

13.3

11.2

11.4

-14%

1%

15.2

11.8

-22%

LFP

15.5

6.8

6.1

-61%

-11%

20.9

7.2

-66%

Anode

ArtificialGraphite

1.2

1.7

1.2

1%

-29%

2.3

1.5

-33%

NaturalGraphite

0.5

0.3

0.3

-39%

15%

0.5

0.4

-12%

AquamiformNaturalGraphite

0.9

0.8

0.8

-4%

3%

0.9

0.9

-3%

NaturalGraphite-PowderandFlakes

Separator

0.4

0.5

0.4

2%

-10%

0.6

0.5

-18%

Polyethylene

10.8

12.9

9.0

-16%

-30%

8.9

11.5

29%

Polypropylene

Electrolyte

14.0

8.4

14.3

2%

70%

17.5

11.4

-35%

LiPF6

13.4

9.2

8.2

-39%

-11%

15.4

9.3

-40%

AstheendofDec2024.Source:ChinaCustoms,DataCompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchGlobalInvestmentResearch15

ChinabatterysupplychainCAPEX~40%downfrompeak

Atcurrentcapexlevels,weestimate300G~400GWhofbatteryandupstreamcomponent

capacityisaddedeachyear

Capex(Rmbbn)

60

57

GSe

58

5050

50

44434446

39

40

30

20

10

37

40

36

333435

26

35

32

26

28

26

29

29

27

23

20

2021

19

20

14

10

7

11

8

10

5

10

15

9

5

8

3

101010

6

7

36

9

767

3

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

2Q23

3Q23

4Q23

1Q24

2Q24

3Q24

4Q24

1Q25

2Q25

3Q25

4Q25

0

NCMLFPSeparatorElectrolyteAnodeBatterymakersChinabatterysupplychain-Revised

Oursamplelistcoscover75%ofChinacathodeandAnodeproduction,90%ofseparatorandelectrolyteproductionand70%ofbatteryproduction

ChinaBatteryCoverage

StockTickerMarketCapCurrencyLastcloseGSTPGSRatingUpside/Downside

Past1M

Performance

Past1MTradingVolume

Past1M

TradingValue

BatteryMakers

(USDmn)

(LCY)

(LCY)

(%)

(mnshares)(LCYinmn)

CATL

300750.SZ

155,404

CNY

255.2

378.0

Buy*

48%

-1%

780

205,660

Gotion

002074.SZ

5,771

CNY

23.2

33.2

Buy

43%

5%

769

17,552

EVEEnergy

300014.SZ

14,468

CNY

51.1

43.4

Neutral

-15%

16%

1,071

49,608

CALB

3931.HK

2,799

HKD

18.1

16.6

Neutral

-8%

23%

41

667

Farasis

688567.SS

2,547

CNY

15.1

6.7

Sell

-56%

24%

717

9,737

Avg.

3%

21%

BatteryMaterials

(USDmn)

(LCY)

(LCY)

(%)

(mnshares)(LCYinmn)

HunanYuneng

301358.SZ

4,175

CNY

39.9

66.6

Buy

67%

-3%

320

13,469

SeniorTechnology

300568.SZ

2,078

CNY

11.2

13.8

Buy

23%

10%

1,727

19,060

YunnanEnergy

002812.SZ

4,403

CNY

32.8

45.9

Buy

40%

6%

441

14,091

Putailai

603659.SS

5,169

CNY

17.5

16.0

Neutral

-9%

11%

1,035

16,901

Dynanonic

300769.SZ

1,383

CNY

35.7

32.6

Neutral

-9%

2%

368

13,297

TinciMaterial

002709.SZ

5,401

CNY

20.4

13.6

Sell

-33%

4%

1,336

26,805

Zhenhua

688707.SS

834

CNY

11.9

7.0

Sell

-41%

9%

220

2,518

Avg.

6%

6%

PTsareona12-monthtimeframe;AsofMar11st,2025closingprice.*CATLisonAPACConvictionList.

Source:RefinitivEikon,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GlobalInvestmentResearch16

17

DisclosureAppendix

March12,2025

GlobalInvestmentResearch18

tattDisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,EricShen,TrinaChenandQiyingWei,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyre?ectourpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesanditsorthe