本科生畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)(論文)翻譯_確保物流管理和績(jī)效的一致性.doc

華南理工大學(xué)廣州學(xué)院本科生畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）翻譯英文原文名 ensuring the consistency ofcompetitive strategy andlogistic performance management 中文譯名 確保物流管理和績(jī)效的一致性 學(xué) 院 管理學(xué)院 專業(yè)班級(jí) 工商管理7班 學(xué)生姓名 伍世立 學(xué)生學(xué)號(hào) 200930133094 指導(dǎo)教師 劉飛燕 講師 填表日期 2013年5月15日 二一三 年 五 月英文原文版出處： 譯文成績(jī)： 指導(dǎo)教師（導(dǎo)師組長(zhǎng)）簽名： 譯文：確保競(jìng)爭(zhēng)戰(zhàn)略和物流績(jī)效管理的一致性摘要生產(chǎn)企業(yè)經(jīng)常只是達(dá)到降低物流績(jī)效和物流宗旨、物流績(jī)效目標(biāo)、物流績(jī)效管理行為之間的矛盾的水平。定性的模型是影響他們兩個(gè)之間相互依賴水平的因素。首先是物流活動(dòng)之間，第二是物流績(jī)效方法和物流計(jì)劃與控制參數(shù)。專家認(rèn)識(shí)的得到是來(lái)自關(guān)于物流系統(tǒng)促進(jìn)定性的影響模型的解釋和評(píng)價(jià)的動(dòng)態(tài)行為的建模。在這基礎(chǔ)上，一致的物流目標(biāo)能夠定義和明確，導(dǎo)向計(jì)劃和控制行為也能夠辨認(rèn)。那個(gè)模型見解是整合物流績(jī)效分析程序和使用工具提高物流師理解他們的管理決策和提高物流績(jī)效的閉合管理的效果。關(guān)鍵詞：物流績(jī)效，績(jī)效管理，定性模型1、介紹生產(chǎn)企業(yè)之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)是基于產(chǎn)品功能，產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)舒適性 價(jià)格產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量和物流績(jī)效。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)二分之一的起源來(lái)自于策略設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)品或產(chǎn)品系統(tǒng)獨(dú)立性。優(yōu)勢(shì)基于后面三個(gè)因素首先要設(shè)置足夠的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)，第二，他們也依靠?jī)?yōu)越的使用性能。為了達(dá)到所需要的性能水平，制造企業(yè)必須確保他們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)戰(zhàn)略和他們的運(yùn)行績(jī)效的管理行為是一致的。這個(gè)特別適用于上文的物流績(jī)效。物流績(jī)效目標(biāo)之間和因?yàn)闊o(wú)規(guī)劃和控制參數(shù)的不一致，是物流性能過剩的根源之一。物流績(jī)效作為一個(gè)重要客戶，購(gòu)買標(biāo)準(zhǔn)發(fā)展成了一個(gè)證明制造公司成功的因素。這些公司必須配備績(jī)效管理方法去支持他們避免這些矛盾。作為一個(gè)解決方案，本文提出了定性物流影響模型和一個(gè)對(duì)物流績(jī)效診斷的方法。它首先提供了一個(gè)大概后果，就是物流戰(zhàn)略管理決策要物流績(jī)效管理操作。第二，它介紹了兩種類型的定性影響模型這代表了物流行為和物流績(jī)效之間和物流計(jì)劃和控制參數(shù)的相互依賴關(guān)系。一般來(lái)自對(duì)這些模型的評(píng)價(jià)都是概括性的。第三，作為影響模型的實(shí)際應(yīng)用，這文章提出了一種診斷程序和軟件工具是影響制造公司操作物流績(jī)效的因素。2 連接戰(zhàn)略上和操作的物流管理由于第1節(jié)中描述的市場(chǎng)發(fā)展，許多制造企業(yè)采用的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)策略，基于其物流績(jī)效，其物流戰(zhàn)略成為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)策略。物流管理戰(zhàn)略有兩個(gè)主要任務(wù)：制定物流戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)，物流和生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)。這兩個(gè)任務(wù)的物流運(yùn)作管理的反響。的重要后勤目標(biāo)取決于其產(chǎn)品投放策略，即它是否滿足顧客的需求，從成品產(chǎn)品的商店或是否滿足具體的客戶訂單，直接從生產(chǎn)制造公司。因此，該公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)目標(biāo)和隨之而來(lái)的規(guī)劃和控制行動(dòng)有“高服務(wù)水平”和“低延遲交付”或“高送可靠性”和“短的交貨時(shí)間”，分別來(lái)自主要目標(biāo)。產(chǎn)品交付策略也會(huì)對(duì)一個(gè)制造公司的物流系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)造成影響，包括或遺漏銷售物流過程。在更詳細(xì)設(shè)計(jì)制造公司采購(gòu)，生產(chǎn)和銷售物流的三個(gè)物流過程中，它的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)實(shí)行跟隨物流參考模型的方案。這些模型通常提供一個(gè)可以選擇每個(gè)物流過程的設(shè)計(jì)模板的幾個(gè)流程模型。一個(gè)分析過程參考模型的開發(fā)，西門子關(guān)注的基礎(chǔ)是供應(yīng)鏈運(yùn)作參考模型推導(dǎo)了所謂制造企業(yè)的物流配置。這些配置的物流過程在物流職能時(shí)間中扮演一個(gè)主動(dòng)的部分。顯然，只有物流活動(dòng)過程追求明確的物流目標(biāo)，完成物流計(jì)劃和控制行為，所以在制造企業(yè)的物流績(jī)效有影響。因此，公司的特定物流配置形態(tài)的基本結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)物流相互依賴關(guān)系。再說，這個(gè)結(jié)構(gòu)決定了性能目標(biāo)的準(zhǔn)確操作、計(jì)劃、和控制行為的一致性必須實(shí)現(xiàn)。工業(yè)企業(yè)物流決策是在物流相互依賴組織的基礎(chǔ)上的。為了確保分析的總體適用性，文章考慮到了股票組織配置。3、建模和分析物流之間的相互依賴一般地分析模型是用來(lái)描述和分析物流的流程相之間互依賴關(guān)系的。這些模型往往缺乏清楚地建立物流績(jī)效指標(biāo)和、操作計(jì)劃、控制行為之間的關(guān)系過程是能夠采取的。此外，單獨(dú)物流流程之間的相互依賴是不全面考慮的。為克服這些缺點(diǎn)，定性的影響模型能整體識(shí)別物流相互依賴內(nèi)跨進(jìn)程和邊界的編譯。這個(gè)模型是生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)和物流研究所基于物流操作曲線理論研制的。這個(gè)理論包括的范圍是分析模型關(guān)于物流庫(kù)存和生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)行為。使用數(shù)學(xué)關(guān)系的模型，這是可能建立物流相互關(guān)系在物流目標(biāo)和物流績(jī)效措施、參數(shù)之間是通過計(jì)劃和控制行為被控制的。31 物流績(jī)效目標(biāo)的相互依賴ifa開發(fā)了兩套物流績(jī)效給生產(chǎn)和儲(chǔ)存流程。對(duì)于孤立的物流流程，一個(gè)關(guān)于績(jī)效之間的相互依賴的定性描述是有效的。作為一個(gè)拓展，圖表2展示三個(gè)制造公司物流流程的兩套績(jī)效的組合。至于分離的進(jìn)程，物流目標(biāo)能夠分配兩個(gè)方向的物流性能和物流成本。后者可以進(jìn)一步被分解成過程成本和庫(kù)存成本。圖2：概述物流目標(biāo)之間的相互依賴關(guān)系圖中還總結(jié)了定性分析的結(jié)果在國(guó)際米蘭的第一依賴關(guān)系進(jìn)行了演繹推理的方法。主要的觀點(diǎn)是三個(gè)方向?qū)?yīng)于彼此在所有三個(gè)物流流程的目標(biāo)。相反地，被發(fā)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)方向的物流性能和工藝成本以及過程成本和庫(kù)存成本之間存在明顯沖突。因此，圖表2加以類別強(qiáng)大通訊和強(qiáng)烈沖突目標(biāo)之間的相互關(guān)系。3.2 計(jì)劃、控制行為和物流性能措施之間的相互關(guān)系業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)劃和控制行動(dòng)，對(duì)制造企業(yè)的物流績(jī)效的影響建模技術(shù)控制流程和物流績(jī)效管理之間通過一個(gè)比喻。因此，物流相互依存關(guān)系定性的影響與控制系統(tǒng)理論從已知的框圖模型所示。一個(gè)例子是如圖所示。 3，適應(yīng)的生產(chǎn)物流過程中的影響模型10定性的影響模型描繪了連接的物流績(jī)效措施的原因和效果鏈物流的計(jì)劃和控制行動(dòng)，所謂的決定因素修改的參數(shù)。參照從圖的一個(gè)例子。 3，生產(chǎn)物流過程的“吞吐量”和“利用”為藍(lán)本的性能措施作為控制變量“wip水平”的功能。后者計(jì)算出作為兩個(gè)操縱變量“實(shí)際inpuf和”實(shí)際outpuf之間的差異。操縱變量的值又決定因素控制：實(shí)際投入的決定“發(fā)布實(shí)際工作內(nèi)容”和“實(shí)際發(fā)行日期”，實(shí)際輸出的決定“實(shí)際能力”和“能力提供日期”。顯然，第一對(duì)的決定因素是參數(shù)化的部分的順序發(fā)布，而第二對(duì)依賴于能力控制決定。圖表3：關(guān)于生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃和管制的定性影響模型對(duì)于采購(gòu)和配送物流過程的庫(kù)存管理，一個(gè)類似的影響模型已經(jīng)開發(fā)了。此外，物流過程的連接變量已經(jīng)被發(fā)現(xiàn)所以有因果關(guān)系的鏈擴(kuò)展過程超過可能被追蹤的界限。通過使用這些模型，物流能夠辨認(rèn)所有計(jì)劃和控制行為影響一個(gè)確定的執(zhí)行措施。反之亦然，他們可以通過確定的計(jì)劃和控制行為找到所有性能的措施是有影響的。3.3定性評(píng)價(jià)物流相互依賴關(guān)系物流操作曲線理論不僅決定了結(jié)構(gòu)的上面給出的影響模型，ifa的專業(yè)知識(shí)在解釋定量模型理論也有助于一個(gè)定性的物流相互依賴關(guān)系評(píng)價(jià)。這個(gè)過程的結(jié)果在兩種類型的指南物流績(jī)效管理:指南的一致定義是物流目標(biāo)和方針目標(biāo)的識(shí)別物流規(guī)劃和控制行為。下面給出兩種示例類型：制造企業(yè)的物流過程應(yīng)該共同追求相應(yīng)的目標(biāo)方向圖2所示。相反,結(jié)合目標(biāo)的追求從沖突的方向應(yīng)該被避免。某些目標(biāo)的價(jià)值觀構(gòu)成的物流流程規(guī)劃值參數(shù)在其他進(jìn)程的設(shè)置值必須是一致的。一個(gè)物流過程的計(jì)劃和控制行為改善其物流績(jī)效,無(wú)論是在規(guī)模和響應(yīng)能力是最有效的。為提高物流績(jī)效,制造企業(yè)必須實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)取向和規(guī)劃和控制的行動(dòng)在所有物流流程中是一致性的。這也是必不可少的很好實(shí)現(xiàn)物流成本水平較低的性能。計(jì)劃和控制動(dòng)作操縱程度和時(shí)間的投入和輸出的生產(chǎn)資源和商店是他們改善物流績(jī)效最有效的。 排序決策和專用容量調(diào)整是最有效的計(jì)劃和控制行為的角度f(wàn)i“唵單一客戶訂單在這樣的前提下, 后勤工作人員負(fù)責(zé)遵循這些指導(dǎo)方針,制造企業(yè)可以確保應(yīng)用程序的物流績(jī)效管理實(shí)踐,都是一致的和有效的。4、使用定性模型為物流績(jī)效診斷 為了使制造企業(yè)能夠直接應(yīng)用定性影響模型和指導(dǎo)物流績(jī)效管理，ifa在他們的基礎(chǔ)上開發(fā)一個(gè)物流績(jī)效診斷程序和工具。圖4 診斷程序和工具的應(yīng)用包括三個(gè)階段：績(jī)效考核，分析，診斷和治療的定義。在第一階段中，制造公司正在考慮收集性能數(shù)據(jù)。這有利于通過診斷工具的用戶界面的輸入部顯示在圖的頂部。 一種交互式的問卷調(diào)查提供了一種結(jié)構(gòu)，用于在物流績(jī)效需要的信息。物流配置，目標(biāo)實(shí)際性能以及物流的計(jì)劃和控制的做法應(yīng)用被記錄下來(lái)。在這個(gè)階段，物流績(jī)效赤字變得顯而易見。 在第二階段中，性能數(shù)據(jù)使用的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的分析診斷軟件工具。系統(tǒng)的診斷程序確定的原因的物流績(jī)效財(cái)政赤字。常規(guī)識(shí)別物流目標(biāo)不一致的地方，以及物流績(jī)效措施之間的不一致及物流的計(jì)劃和控制行動(dòng)。診斷還指出情況下，應(yīng)用的規(guī)劃和控制措施不最大限度地發(fā)揮物流性能。 在第三階段，利用數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中包含的治療規(guī)則，以確保物流管理的做法，確定行動(dòng)的一致性當(dāng)前的物流性能改善。物流績(jī)效的原因赤字和行動(dòng)的建議所強(qiáng)調(diào)的改善的報(bào)道，可以通過在用戶界面的訪問（參見圖4中的頂部）。5、結(jié)論 定性影響物流模式，本文提出一個(gè)切實(shí)可行的手段，以確保物流績(jī)效為基礎(chǔ)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)戰(zhàn)略和業(yè)務(wù)的物流績(jī)效管理的一致性。最重要的是，模型幫助制造企業(yè)識(shí)別那些業(yè)務(wù)計(jì)劃和控制行動(dòng)，使他們能夠有效地提高特定的物流績(jī)效措施。事實(shí)上，該模型考慮物流過程之間的相互關(guān)系 - 以及那些在流程內(nèi) - 是一個(gè)額外的好處。因此，一致的戰(zhàn)略和運(yùn)營(yíng)的物流管理是促進(jìn)制造公司的所有物流過程。 超越目前的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，影響的定性模型的兩個(gè)重要的改進(jìn)是可能的。首先，生產(chǎn)過程中可能會(huì)被分解成制造和裝配過程的組合與可變數(shù)量的生產(chǎn)階段和轉(zhuǎn)移客戶訂單解耦點(diǎn)6，11。定性模型的發(fā)展和分析應(yīng)延長(zhǎng)得到的更詳細(xì)的制造公司的物流配置。二，定性模型可作為發(fā)展的額外定量物流模型的基礎(chǔ)。例如，建立和驗(yàn)證業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)劃和控制參數(shù)和物流績(jī)效措施之間的數(shù)學(xué)關(guān)系，擴(kuò)大物流工作曲線的理論是可行的。ensuring the consistency of competitive strategy and logistic performance managementgregor von cieminski and peter nyhuisinstitute of production systems and logistics (ifa),gottfried wilhelm leibniz universitat hannover,an der universitat 2, d-30823 garbsen, germanyemail: cieminski, nyhuis ifa.uni-hannover.deabstractmanufacturing companies often merely attain reduced levels of logistic performance due to inconsistencies between their logistic objectives, logistic performance targets and logistic performance management actions. qualitative influence models represent the inter-dependencies between these factors on two levels: firstly between logistic objectives, secondly between logisticperfomiance measures and logistic planning and control parameters. expert knowledge gained from modelling the dynamic behaviour of logistic systems facilitates the interpretation and evaluation of the qualitative influence models. on this basis, consistent logistic objectives can be defined and objective-oriented planning and control actions can be identified. the modelling insights are integrated into a logistic performance diagnosis procedure and tool that improve logisticians understanding of the consequences of their management decisions and enhance the closed-loop management of logistic performance.keywordslogistic performance, performance management, qualitative model1 introductionmanufacturing companies compete with each other in terms of product functionality, product and service flexibility, price, product quality and logistic performance 1. competitive advantages in terms of the first two factors originate from the superior strategic design of products or production systems, respectively. advantages in terms of the latter three factors firstly require the setting of adequate strategic objectives. secondly, they also depend on superior operational performance. in order to attain the performance levels required, manufacturing companies have to ensure that their please use the following format when citing this chapter: competitive strategies and their operational performance management actions are consistent 2. this especially applies to the context of logistic performance: wiendahl et al. 3 name inconsistencies between logistic performance objectives and operational planning and control parameters as one of the root causes of logistic performance deficits. as logistic performance has become an important customer purchase criterion 4 and developed into a proven success factor for manufacturing companies 5, the companies have to be equipped with performance management approaches that support them in avoiding these inconsistencies.as a solution, this paper proposes qualitative logistic influence models and an approach for logistic performance diagnosis. it first provides a general overview of the consequences that strategic logistics management decisions have for operational logistic performance management. second, it introduces two types of qualitative influence models that represent the inter-dependencies between logistic objectives as well as between logistic performance measures and logistic planning and control parameters. general insights gained from the interpretation and evaluation of these models are summarised. third, as practical applications of the influence models, the paper presents a diagnostic procedure and software tool for factors affecting the operational logistic performance of manufacturing companies.2 linking strategic and operational logistics managementgiven the market developments described in section 1, many manufacturing companies adopt competitive strategies based on their logistic performance; their logistic strategies become competitive strategies. strategic logistics management has two main tasks: the formulation of strategic logistic objectives and the design of logistic and production systems. both of these tasks have repercussions for operational logistics management. the primary logistic objectives of a manufacturing company depend on its product-delivery strategy, i.e. whether it satisfies customer demands from a finished-products store or whether it fulfils specific customer orders directly from production. accordingly, the companys operational performance objectives and the ensuing planning and control actions have to be derived from the primary objectives high service level and low delivery delay or high delivery reliability and short lead times, respectively.the product-delivery strategy also influences a design aspect of manufacturing companies logistic systems: the inclusion or omission of the distribution-logistics process. in the more detailed design of the three logistic processes of manufacturing companies - procurement, production and distribution logistics - it is standard practice to follow the prescriptions of logistic reference models. these models typically provide a choice of several process models as design templates for each of the logistic processes. an analysis of the process reference models developed by the siemens concern 6 on the basis of the supply-chain operations reference model 7 led to the derivation of so-called logistic configurations of manufacturing companies 8 (see fig. la and lb). these configurations indicate those logistic processes that play an active part in the fulfilment of the logistics function. obviously, only logistically-active processes pursue explicit logistic objectives, carry out logistic planning and control actions, and therefore have an impact on the logistic performance of a manufacturing company. hence, the specific logistic configuration of a company shapes the basic structure of the relevant logistic inter-dependencies(see fig. id). in turn, this structure determines the exact operational performance objectives and planning and control actions whose consistency has to be achieved.fig. 1. configurations of industrial-enterprise logistics detennine the basic structure of thelogistic inter-dependenciesto ensure the general applicability of the analysis, this paper considers a make-to-stock configuration, in which all processes affect the logistic performance.3 modelling and analysing logistic inter-dependenciesgenerally, analytical models of logistic processes are used to describe and analyse logistic inter-dependencies. these models often fall short of clearly establishing the relationships between logistic performance measures and the operational planning and control actions that the logistic processes can take. moreover, inter-dependencies between separate logistic processes are not comprehensively taken into account. to overcome these shortcomings, qualitative influence models that holistically identify logistic inter-dependencies within and across process boundaries were compiled 8. the models are based on the theory of logistic operating curves developed at the institute of production systems and logistics (ifa) 9. this theory includes a range of analytical models of the logistic behaviour of inventories and production systems. using the mathematical relationships of the models, it is possible to establish logistic inter-dependencies on two levels -between logistic objectives (see section 3.1) and between logistic performance measures and parameters that are manipulated through planning and control actions (see section 3.2).3.1 inter-dependencies between logistic performance objectivesif a has developed sets of logistic objectives for both production and storage processes. for isolated logistic processes, a qualitative characterisation of the inter- dependencies between the objectives is available 9. as an extension, fig. 2 shows the combination of the sets of objectives of the three logistic processes of manufacturing companies. as for the separate processes, the logistic objectives can be assigned to the two directions logistic performance and logistic costs. the latter can further be differentiated into process costs and inventory costs.fig. 2. overview of inter-dependencies between logistic objectivesthe figure also summarises the results of a first qualitative analysis of the inter- dependencies carried out by means of deductive reasoning. the main insight was that the objectives of each of the three directions correspond to each other across all three logistic processes. conversely, marked conflicts were found to exist between the objectives of the directions logistic performance and process costs as well as process costs and inventory costs. accordingly, fig. 2 categorises the inter-dependencies between the objectives into strong correspondences and strong conflicts. (more detailed results of the analysis are provided in 8.)3.2 inter-dependencies between planning and control actions and logistic performance measuresthe effects of operational planning and control actions on the logistic performance of manufacturing companies are modelled through an analogy between technical control processes and logistic performance management. accordingly, logistic inter-dependencies are illustrated in qualitative influence models that are comparable to the block diagrams known from control-systems theory. an example is shown in fig. 3, the influence model of the production-logistics process adapted from 10,the qualitative influence models depict the cause-and-effect chains linking the logistic performance measures to the parameters modified by logistic planning and control actions, the so-called determinants. referring to an example from fig. 3, the performance measures of production-logistics processes throughput time and utilisation are modelled as functions of the controlled variable wip level. the latter is calculated as the difference between the two manipulated variables actual inpuf and actual outpuf. the values of the manipulated variables are in turn controlled by determinants: the actual input by the determinants actual work content released and actual release date, the actual output by the determinants actual capacity provided and date of capacity provision. obviously, the first pair of determinants is parameterised as part of the order release, while the second pair depends on capacity-control decisions.fig. 3. qualitative influence model of production planning and control (adapted from 10)for the inventory management of procurement and distribution logistics processes, a similar influence model has been developed. additionally, the coupling variables of the logistic processes have been identified so that cause-and-effect chains that extend across process boundaries may be traced as well. through the use of these models, logisticians can identify all planning and control actions affecting a certain performance measure. vice versa, they can locate all performance measures that are affected by a certain planning and control action.3.3 qualitative evaluation of logistic inter-dependenciesthe theory of logistic operating curves not only determines the structure of the quahtative influence models presented above. ifas expertise in the interpretation of the quantitative models of the theory also facilitates a qualitative evaluation of the logistic inter-dependencies 8. this process results in two types of guidelines for logistic performance management: guidelines for the consistent definition of logistic objectives and guidelines for the identification of objective-oriented logistic planning and control actions. examples for both types are given below:the logistic processes of manufacturing companies should jointly pursue corresponding objectives in the directions shown in fig. 2. conversely, the combined pursuit of objectives from conflicting directions should be avoided.certain target values of logistic processes constitute values of planning parameters in other processes. the value settings for both have to be consistent.a logistic processs own planning and control actions are most effective for improving its logistic performance, both in magnitude and responsiveness.for maximizing logistic performance, manufacturing companies have to achieve objective-orientation and consistency of planning and control actions across all logistic processes. this is also essential for achieving very good performance levels at low logistic costs.planning and control actions manipulating the magnitude and timing of inputs and outputs of production resources and stores are most effective in improving their logistic performance.sequencing decisions and dedicated capacity adjustments are the most effective planning and control actions fiom the perspective of single customer orders. on the premise that the logisticians responsible adhere to these guidelines, manufacturing companies can ensure the application of logistic performance management practices that are both consistent and effective.4 using qualitative models for logistic performance diagnosisin order for manufacturing companies to be able to directly apply the qualitative influence models and the guidelines for logistic performance management, ifa developed a logistic performance diagnosis procedure and tool on their basis. a knowledge base containing the insights gained from modelling and analyzing the logistic inter-dependencies lies at the core of the diagnostic procedure. on the one hand, this encompasses the underlying structure of the logistic inter-dependencies. for example, the cause-and-effec