第三次工業(yè)革命與中國夢

1、第三次工業(yè)革命與中國夢前兩百年中發(fā)生的兩次工業(yè)革命，為人類發(fā)展工業(yè)文明奠定了基礎(chǔ)，但也產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重的后遺癥，從而誘發(fā)了各種生態(tài)危機(jī)。生態(tài)文明是超越工業(yè)文明的新的文明形態(tài)。它以尊重自然、順應(yīng)自然、保護(hù)自然為核心理念。近年來，以計(jì)算機(jī)和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)為代表的信息技術(shù)的飛速發(fā)展，進(jìn)一步提高了近代工業(yè)的效率，也為節(jié)約資源和改善生態(tài)創(chuàng)造了一定條件，但如果發(fā)展的理念沒有改變，仍然沿用“先污染、后治理”的老辦法，就不可能治愈前兩次工業(yè)革命的后遺癥。總之，社會的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展，將強(qiáng)烈要求改變工業(yè)文明的發(fā)展模式，推動(dòng)第三次工業(yè)革命，實(shí)現(xiàn)向新的生態(tài)文明過渡。美國著名未來學(xué)家杰里米里夫金在他的第三次工業(yè)革命一書中提出，經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會

2、變革總是來自新能源與新通信方式的交匯。在接下來的半個(gè)世紀(jì)里，第一次和第二次工業(yè)革命形成的傳統(tǒng)的集中的經(jīng)營活動(dòng)，將被第三次工業(yè)革命的分散經(jīng)營方式取代。英國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅麥基里認(rèn)為，一場新工業(yè)革命即將到來，它以“制造業(yè)數(shù)字化”為核心，并將使全球技術(shù)要素和市場要素配置方式發(fā)生革命性變化。盡管目前對工業(yè)革命發(fā)生過幾次、新工業(yè)革命的主導(dǎo)技術(shù)是什么等存在不同的看法，但對于人類正在迎來一場新工業(yè)革命的判斷，已成共識。同時(shí)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、新能源、新材料、數(shù)字制造技術(shù)等，已成為這場變革的基本技術(shù)特征，而引領(lǐng)這場工業(yè)革命的，正是人類社會對建設(shè)生態(tài)文明的強(qiáng)烈需求。在生態(tài)文明的視野中，技術(shù)可分為資源開發(fā)技術(shù)、生態(tài)保護(hù)技術(shù)和共

3、性技術(shù)等。資源開發(fā)技術(shù)要優(yōu)先發(fā)展新能源技術(shù)和節(jié)能減排技術(shù)。生態(tài)保護(hù)技術(shù)包括清潔生產(chǎn)技術(shù)、廢棄物利用技術(shù)、污染防治和治理技術(shù)、環(huán)境監(jiān)測技術(shù)等。共性技術(shù)如信息技術(shù)、新材料技術(shù)和先進(jìn)制造技術(shù)等，將滲透到上述所有技術(shù)之中。由于技術(shù)對生態(tài)的影響難于在事前正確預(yù)測，因此，必須根據(jù)建設(shè)生態(tài)文明的要求，對技術(shù)進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)選擇和最終的檢驗(yàn)。建設(shè)生態(tài)文明將是一個(gè)涉及技術(shù)、社會和生態(tài)三大系統(tǒng)相互作用的長期而復(fù)雜的過程。第三次工業(yè)革命只是向生態(tài)文明過渡的開始。只有解決了人與人之間的和諧問題，才能徹底解決人與自然的和諧問題。前兩次工業(yè)革命的歷史表明，哪個(gè)國家位于新工業(yè)革命的發(fā)展前列，哪個(gè)國家就取得先發(fā)優(yōu)勢。近代大國如英國和

4、美國的崛起，和他們能夠主導(dǎo)當(dāng)時(shí)的工業(yè)革命密切相關(guān)。第一次工業(yè)革命時(shí)，中國正處于康乾盛世后期，gdp穩(wěn)居世界第一，但閉關(guān)鎖國，讓我們沒有跟上這次工業(yè)革命，到了1840年就使中國飽嘗苦果。第二次工業(yè)革命時(shí)，我們正在軍閥混戰(zhàn)，又被這場工業(yè)革命甩下。即將來臨的第三次工業(yè)革命，正值中國再次崛起?？梢灶A(yù)料，對于第三次工業(yè)革命，大國之間的競爭，將比前兩次更加激烈。誰能主導(dǎo)這場工業(yè)革命，誰就可能主導(dǎo)未來的一個(gè)世紀(jì)。中國自改革開放以來，經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長，用30多年時(shí)間，走完了西方發(fā)達(dá)國家200多年的工業(yè)化進(jìn)程，巨大的成績有目共睹。但是，中國人口眾多，資源有限，完全效仿西方發(fā)達(dá)國家的工業(yè)化道路，一定會遇到資源超前消費(fèi)

5、、生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化的發(fā)展瓶頸。危機(jī)與機(jī)遇共生，目前的困境，對中國推動(dòng)第三次工業(yè)革命，出現(xiàn)了一種“倒逼”機(jī)制。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷增長，能源消費(fèi)的持續(xù)增長是一個(gè)客觀規(guī)律。1960年代到現(xiàn)在，能源消費(fèi)增長速度更快，能源消費(fèi)的格局也發(fā)生了巨大變化。1960年代美國占全球能源消費(fèi)的35%，中國僅占5%；現(xiàn)在中國增長到22%，美國卻下降到17%。全球煤炭消費(fèi)中國占了50%還多。中國的石油消費(fèi)現(xiàn)在一半以上靠進(jìn)口。由石化燃料產(chǎn)生的溫室氣體排放量，中國現(xiàn)在也已超過美國。我國中東部持續(xù)出現(xiàn)的霧霾天氣和pm2.5嚴(yán)重超標(biāo)，正在警示我們，保護(hù)生態(tài)環(huán)境已經(jīng)迫在眉睫。為此，我們必須改變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理念。過去這種以大量能源消耗和犧牲環(huán)

6、境為代價(jià)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，必然與生態(tài)處于不可調(diào)和的矛盾狀態(tài)。我們必須在gdp的增長速度和改善生態(tài)環(huán)境之間找到平衡點(diǎn)。推進(jìn)以建設(shè)生態(tài)文明建設(shè)為核心的第三次工業(yè)革命，必將助推美麗中國夢。它不但不會影響中國未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，反而會有利于改變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式。中國有自己的優(yōu)勢。首先，中國擁有發(fā)展新能源優(yōu)良的資源和環(huán)境稟賦；其次，中國的高新技術(shù)特別是信息技術(shù)，已有了較好的發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)；第三，中國正在進(jìn)行積極的改革，為技術(shù)創(chuàng)新提供良好環(huán)境。實(shí)際上，技術(shù)的首創(chuàng)或模仿，對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響，是大不相同的。中國必須主導(dǎo)開發(fā)一批有自主知識產(chǎn)權(quán)的創(chuàng)新技術(shù)，搶占第三次工業(yè)革命的制高點(diǎn)。qcwa3ptgz7r4i30ka1dkaghn3x

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