The market for the flexible mechanisms Carbon till and beyond：對(duì)于柔性機(jī)制碳到市和超越

1、providing critical insights into energy and environmental the market for the flexible mechanisms: carbon till 2012 and beyondolga gassan-zadepoint carbon april 24, 2008providing critical insights into energy and environmental point carbon todaytrading analytics, research & advisory, news and con

2、ferencescovers carbon, power and gas markets170 employees (25 ph.ds)oslo, london, tokyo, washington, kiev15.000 subscribers in 150 domainsproviding critical insights into energy and environmental overviewcarbon market nowcarbon market in 2008-12post-2012focus on mechanisms and aau tradingproviding c

3、ritical insights into energy and environmental carbon market now providing critical insights into energy and environmental emergence of an effective carbon pricesignificant impact on european power pricesproviding critical insights into energy and environmental maturing marketproviding critical insi

4、ghts into energy and environmental still going strongeu ets remains the key driverproviding critical insights into energy and environmental overview of cdm and ji activities (as of april 2008)cdmji# projects/ transactionstotal volume -2012 (mtco2e)# projects/ transactionstotal volume -2012 (mtco2e)p

5、rojects (total)6,217 4,546 919 767 pdd level and above3,596 3,015 353 396 registered and above1,023 1,300 13transactions7561,317 10366.5providing critical insights into energy and environmental cer and eru price categories (april 2008)contract categorycdm (/t)ji (/t)1. project is still at concept/pr

6、ospect stage or has developed a project idea note. 611 4 72. project has developed a pdd, and the pdd has been submitted to a doe for validation. 8 11 8 103. firm volume, compensation upon non-delivery 12 13 10 124. guaranteed delivery, seller assumes all delivery risk 13 15 n.alower risk for the se

7、llerhigher risk for the sellerproviding critical insights into energy and environmental 2008-12:balancing supply and demand providing critical insights into energy and environmental kyoto gaps (2008-12)05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000eu 15japancanadaothersmt co2enet kyoto gapntpgppetssource: point carb

8、onproviding critical insights into energy and environmental supply: majority already in pipeline010002000300040005000totalcdmjimtexisting projects - not risk-adjustedupcoming projects - not risk-adjusted19 %81 %94%70%30%57%43%source: point carbonproviding critical insights into energy and environmen

9、tal issuance0%20%40%60%80%100%industrialprocessesfuelswitchingrenewableenergyefficiencywastetotalissuance ratesource: point carbonproviding critical insights into energy and environmental what we say they will deliver4,0662,50501,0002,0003,0004,0005,000cdm facevaluecdm pca estji face value ji pca es

10、ttotal facevaluetotal pca estmt-35 %- 52 %- 38 %source: point carbonproviding critical insights into energy and environmental .add the aaus.make a supply estimate.-5-4-3-2-1012russiaeastern europeothercanadajapaneu15gt co2esource: point carbonukraine providing critical insights into energy and envir

11、onmental estimate kyoto market balance.will the market be oversupplied?eu ets0.5 - 1.5other private (incl. aau)0.0 - 0.5governments2.5 - 3.0total demand3 - 5eru+cers1.0 - 3.0potential aaus7.0 - 8.0total potential supply 8 - 11providing critical insights into energy and environmental not that simples

12、ource: carbon project manager,point carbonproviding critical insights into energy and environmental realistic supply of aauproviding critical insights into energy and environmental a balancing act between the mechanismsa split between cer/eru and aau demandenvironment and development value of cdm an

13、d ji projectsbanking between the periods? erus and cers can be banked only up to a limit of 2.5 % of the initial assigned amount theoretically, aaus can be banked without restrictionsbut will there be a value to aaus post-2012?providing critical insights into energy and environmental a market with a

14、 certain dynamicaau supply is sensitive to demandsnowball effect: success will create more supplyno liquidity in the aau market: no transparent price-setting mechanismpressure on the seller governments to deliver on the aau valuepressure on the buyers to deliver on the price or other concessionsprov

15、iding critical insights into energy and environmental not a commodity marketa market with a limited number of sellers and a limited number of buyersa commodity with a limited circulation and dangerously close expiry dateprice will not be set by an equilibrium of supply and demand instead it will be

16、set by the willingness of the buyer to pay the assessment of the seller of the value of the aaus pricing in of risks and valuation of premiumscompetitive selling or a cartel?providing critical insights into energy and environmental timing is criticaleligibility establishedearly to end 2008 complianc

17、e2 year lag in reportingaccounting for 2012 will be done in 2014true-up: +100 daystrue up reporting (undecided)compliance assessment: mid-2015 the kyoto balance: saved by the aaus? a report by point carbon research. publication date: may 2008providing critical insights into energy and environmental

18、factoring in post-2012 providing critical insights into energy and environmental intrade, apr 15: winning individualsupports a mandatory cap-and-trade system to reduce us carbon emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 205047%co-sponsored the climate stewardship and innovation act of 2007, which wo

19、uld cut carbon emissions by 30 percent from 2000 to 2050.40%supports a mandatory cap-and-trade system to reduce us carbon emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 205012%source: inew us president: new policyproviding critical insights into energy and environmental the proposal by the european commi

20、ssionproposal for 2020 20-30% reduction of emissions 20% from renewable of total energy consumption 20% increase in energy efficiency 10% use of bio-fuels in the transport sector strong limitation on imports of credits significant increase in carbon and power prices across europe massive investments

21、 in renewable energy and ccs any demand for new cdm projects?transforming the european power marketproviding critical insights into energy and environmental supply-demand for cdmeu demand if ec proposal implemented 20% target: 250 mt/year, 2008-2020 30% target: 370 mt/year, 2008-2020supply in 2012:

22、600-700 mt/yearus bill by lieberman-warner 750 mt/year from countries that have a cap, not cdmpotential oversupply, unless change in policy large demand elsewhereinternational policy will define the future of cdmproviding critical insights into energy and environmental our main assumptions about pos

23、t-2012we believe there will be an international agreement - with broad participationus companies will rapidly start setting their mark on the global carbon market over the next couple of yearsoffset projects in developing countries will continue to play an important role, but in a different waywe qu

24、estion whether there will be one reference priceproviding critical insights into energy and environmental prospects for cdm and jiji will take the place of cdm developing country caps large marketfour types of involvement extended annex i: country cap capped developing country sectors developing cou

25、ntry sectors not eligible for cdm developing country sector eligible for cdmnarrow and small cdmproviding critical insights into energy and environmental timing and structuretiming new protocol in copenhagen 2009 2-4 years for extending and ratification of the protocolinstruments for reduction cap-and-trade for extended annex i cap for individual sectors in many developing countri